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This is how predictable Iowa's offense is

Why do we talk like we are 1-4 ……because we are too dumb to look at the whole picture. We are just burning to complain about something. There are a lot of teams out there that would give their left nut to be in Iowa’s position. We won’t truly understand the value of this sometimes boring system until we are 1-4 and averaging 25+ points a game! I’m sure no one will be complaining then!
Wrong!!!
Why do we talk like we are 1-4 ……because we are too dumb to look at the whole picture. We are just burning to complain about something. There are a lot of teams out there that would give their left nut to be in Iowa’s position. We won’t truly understand the value of this sometimes boring system until we are 1-4 and averaging 25+ points a game! I’m sure no one will be complaining then!
what a lame response. We have been winning because of Phil & Levar despite Kirk & Brian. This is “the Parkers” team and has been for years. Imagine a competent offense. Kirk wouldn’t need to worry about have a 60% winning percentage. He is a hinderance to this program advancing!
 
The best offenses put the defenses in conflict based on how the defense is playing the situation. Iowa's offense has never been built this way and its why Kirk basically hasn't had much success on offense since the early 2000's.

This is a systemic problem, and in order to fix it we have to fire Kirk. This predates Brian by a long time.
 
Iowa hasn't had a QB to implement a varied offense.
Iowa's offensive style of play doesn't attract elite QBs.

It's pretty much a vicious circle because one leads to the other.
 
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Two things stand out.

1. We need to run more out of Shotgun. That is clearly obvious. And I'm not talking about just simple dives and off tackle runs either.........

2. The % out of under center should be obvious to anyone who has watched Iowa football for the last 25 years.

Iowa thrives off of play action, and you only get that by establishing tendencies with the run out of those same formations. Now the pushback of course is that you actually need to be successful running the ball to truly set up the play action, but at its core, this has been Iowa football for better or worse under Kirk.
 
The best offenses put the defenses in conflict based on how the defense is playing the situation. Iowa's offense has never been built this way and its why Kirk basically hasn't had much success on offense since the early 2000's.

This is a systemic problem, and in order to fix it we have to fire Kirk. This predates Brian by a long time.
I agree. We should fire Kirk and Brian. And then rehire Kirk as our OL coach to convince Phil to stay on, and then get either an offensive-minded head coach, or someone who is willing to oversee the program and bring in and get out of the way of someone who has the right mind for calling offensive football in 2023 (and no I'm not talking about formation style overhauls like making Iowa a basketball on grass 4/5 wide offense).
 
I would like to see the percentages of running play go to the right or left
We probably run more to the left. To have a successful roll out game, the defense has to think we are running to the left so we can roll out to the right.
 
Its never ever been this bad. Not even close.

1999 & 2000 says hello. It has rarely been significantly better during HC KF tenure.

26 seasons now under KF, only 3 seasons where the offense averaged 400 yards or better/game and only 7 seasons where the scoring average was 30 points or greater, and one of those was 2020.

You're experiencing a bit of past memory bias IMO.
 
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Why does it have to be one or the other? Asking for improvement is only warranted during a bad win total season?
That's the problem with some of these folks....they think it can ONLY be one or the other.
For some strange reason they think improving the offense automatically means fewer wins.

They also think there are no good coaches that would ever come to Iowa, and that there is no coach who could ever do as well or better than Kirk. When he's gone, the Hawks will immediately have nothing but losing seasons.

It's weird.
 
I predict Iowa‘s offense will look like this as soon as Budmayr’s, err, Brian’s script runs out:

cosplay GIF
 
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Wrong!!!

what a lame response. We have been winning because of Phil & Levar despite Kirk & Brian. This is “the Parkers” team and has been for years. Imagine a competent offense. Kirk wouldn’t need to worry about have a 60% winning percentage. He is a hinderance to this program advancing!
Bullshit ^^^^^
Phillip would never be at Iowa without Kirk being here.
Kirk has good people in charge of his defense and special teams. And in Kirk’s mindset, defense and special teams are every bit as important as an offense. Lavar played for Iowa and was hired by Kirk.
 
Our offense is predictable as hell but this is at least a little bit misleading.

There is gonna be no situation or formation where a team’s run/pass frequency is 50%, and what you do gain by being farther away from even, i.e. more predictable generally, is being less predictable on the occasions when you do stray from those tendencies.

It does seem like our playcalling is set up to take advantage of that, where we purposefully build up to a surprise play action or something meant to take a shot downfield.

Mind you we’re not that good at it and there are downsides to being predictable, as we experience all the damn time, but I don’t think this stat itself is the end all be all here.
Wonder how many teams' offenses 'Doc' has tracked.
 
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Bullshit ^^^^^
Phillip would never be at Iowa without Kirk being here.
Kirk has good people in charge of his defense and special teams. And in Kirk’s mindset, defense and special teams are every bit as important as an offense. Lavar played for Iowa and was hired by Kirk.
Yes last I knew football was team sport and all are part of it.
 
Iowa hasn't had a QB to implement a varied offense.
Iowa's offensive style of play doesn't attract elite QBs.

It's pretty much a vicious circle because one leads to the other.
What snake oil did Kirk sell to Cade in order for him to come here? Besides guaranteeing the starting QB spot?
 
I'll make it simpler for everyone. This offense is broken. It's been on this trajectory from an efficiency perspective for 6 years and it's hit rock bottom the last 3. This unfortunately has become the new normal for Iowa offensive football.

Offensive efficiency rankings
2018 43
2019 54
2020 64
2021 92
2022 102
2023 115

A trend.
 
Ryan Walters, who coached Illinois’ defense last year, held Iowa to 6 points.

This is what he said in July, and now Walters faces the Hawkeyes today as Purdue's head coach.

Yikes.

Check this out & watch:

 
The offense is hella predictable, now if we had some of that RPO stuff that would be hard to defend. Some of those schools down south and out west run it and I would hate to play against those teams.
 
Why do we talk like we are 1-4 ……because we are too dumb to look at the whole picture. We are just burning to complain about something. There are a lot of teams out there that would give their left nut to be in Iowa’s position. We won’t truly understand the value of this sometimes boring system until we are 1-4 and averaging 25+ points a game! I’m sure no one will be complaining then!

Some people don't think winning a weak B1G west and then getting a woodshed beating in B1G title game is that great. We just got beat 31-0 by PSU. What were that last game results vs Michigan and OSU?
 
You have absolutely no idea how good Petras would have been with an even adequate O-line. The only time he had what anyone would consider adequate was when he was a first year starter, and that was statistically his best year. Your take is laughable.
or maybe even a QB coach that wasn't an offensive lineman!

KF: Son, I would like you to take on the QB coaching duties.
BF: Thanks Dad, can I get a raise with this extra responsibility?
KF: Absolutely, I'll send the text to Uncle Gary this instant.
BF: Brilliant!
KF: Brilliant!
 
This revisionist history being thrown out in some of the threads is laughable.
It is true, and was acknowledged at the time, that the Iowa O line was not good during his time as QB1. Not only not good, but downright awful in 2021 with a further downward spiral into 2022.
But, he was not a good QB. He was not even an average QB. Not just in the B1G. He wasn't even close to an average QB in all of FBS. Being able to throw the ball hard and far hardly makes for a good QB. Despite some musings on other threads, it's highly unlikely he takes another snap for Iowa. That's a good thing. Hopefully he does well in whatever else he moves into after his playing days.

I remember there was a comparison between Cade and Petras’ first first games. The completion percentage were both 51% (that’s down right terrible). Petras had passed for roughly 100 more yards and Cade threw 2 or 3 more TDs while Petras threw something like 3 more interceptions.

It’s not like Cade forgot how to QB. I think having an offensive lineman as a QB coach and offensive coordinator isn’t smart, but also the offensive line is brutal.
 
Why do we not have game changing talent on offense? Yet on defense we're practically sending 3-4 players to the pros every year, most of them 2-3 start guys?
A lot of that talent goes to defense. Guys like Cooper DeJean with next level athleticism likely see that as their path to the pros. Ask yourself this, if you're good enough to play multiple positions do you want to play for the respected guy with a pretty elite unit, or do you want to go block and run empty routes for the coach's woefully inadequate kid that gets booed and should have been fired a long time ago?

Growing up in a family that's endeared all things Hawkeyes long since before I was born, it always blows me away when a Piersbacher or Proctor grows up here as a hawk fan and leaves. But after watching this offense totally unravel because the head coach has badly damaged the program (and his own legacy) solely to try to advance his kids career, I'd have a hard time not supporting my own kids decision if I were the parent of a recruit like that. Ferentz puts his own family above everything else and has shown he isn't committed to the kids futures that other parents send to be on his team.
 
There are a whole bunch of college teams that are mostly all in shotgun but they can run well from shotgun because they pass the ball really well making it so the opposing defense has to play pass first. Most pro teams are predominantly in shotgun and many have great running games and they really can pass the ball. Chiefs, 49ers. Ravens, etc etc

If Iowa could pass the ball much better and if Kirk really went to a pass first and do it well type offense then KalebJ and Jaz would get their carries but also be catching swing and screen passes.
You missed my point. My point was we are not a shotgun exclusive team. If we were then a more balanced 50/50 run/pass ration would be ideal. But, being since we are not a shotgun exclusive team, it is not surprising that we pass more than not when we are in shotgun.

I do not disagree that we need to pass in order to open up the run. Every defense we play dares us to beat them with the pass and until we actually do it defenses will continue to do the same.
 
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1999 & 2000 says hello. It has rarely been significantly better during HC KF tenure.

26 seasons now under KF, only 3 seasons where the offense averaged 400 yards or better/game and only 7 seasons where the scoring average was 30 points or greater, and one of those was 2020.

You're experiencing a bit of past memory bias IMO.
There is always bias, but you're using Kirk's first years, 24 years ago to make a point. While you are correct that there have been some very bad years under KOK and Davis and they were rarely a scoring machine, the metrics suggest that this is by far the worst 3 year time span under Kirk and it's not even close. Forget scoring averages, because we all know that Kirk's philosophy produces fewer points and those can be skewed by factors outside the offenses control. What's cratered is the offensive efficiency. Can't sustain/finish drives. 3 and outs in droves. Inability to capitalize on turnovers and short fields. These are the things that are the measure of a functional offense. These are the things that have become the norm.
 
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Why do we not have game changing talent on offense? Yet on defense we're practically sending 3-4 players to the pros every year, most of them 2-3 start guys?
It is a good question and I think there are several answers.

1. Phil gets all the athletes. Look at a player like Coop. I am sure that there are other coaches that would have tried to use him on offense as they would have valued his skills there more than defense.
2. This team is the Iowa Hawkeyes and just like every other college team out there the roster will be made predominantly from in-state talent. It isn't that a coach here couldn't bring in out-of-state talent, it is that if there is in-state talent it is a priority and kind of a requirement to get them. If you don't its a great way to alienate your fan base as there is a perception here. This is the same for every team, including Alabama and Georgia and USC. I just want to 247 to do a comparison and I chose Georgia and the class of 2020, a class that should be producing for us. We had Gavin Williams and Josh Volk, both FCS talents at best. They had Jahmyr Gibbs and Brian Branch, both NFL players, and both in the same spot in the rankings. Know that we were not getting Jahmyr Gibbs, but, it is also equally important to get Gavin Williams. That explains the in-state talent problem.
3. Lack of money. Now with NIL and transfer portal, you can buy players but if your checkbook is smaller than the other guys, and it is, you are not going to get the desired talent. Even before it was legal this was being done all over the place at all the big time schools. Just because it is now legal doesn't mean it is new.
4. Iowa is not a destination state.
5. The weather.
6. Lack of support. From the campus and Iowa City police, the DCS, the fan base (constantly bitching) and even their own players (James Daniels woke movement), the deck is stacked against them. Other schools, like Nebbie and all the SEC schools have the whole state behind them by covering up crimes, looking the other way on infractions, paying players off that could have a case, etc. I am not saying it is right, I am saying that is the way it is. KF, and Fran, do things the right way and with class but morality will always come a distant second to winning and losing when it comes to sports.
7. This is the only one they can control. The TE centered offense. In theory it makes sense to replicate what the Patriots did with Gronk and Hernandez. With all of the other disadvantages that Iowa has you have to know that you cannot do the same things that other teams do and beat them. You have to do something different. This was the plan. But in execution, they have not been able to surround the TE's with enough talent. And therein lies the problem. Why would an accomplished WR want to come to Iowa knowing they will never be the focus of the offense. So they don't.
 
There is always bias, but you're using Kirk's first years, 24 years ago to make a point. While you are correct that there have been some very bad years under KOK and Davis and they were rarely a scoring machine, the metrics suggest that this is by far the worst 3 year time span under Kirk and it's not even close. Forget scoring averages, because we all know that Kirk's philosophy produces fewer points and those can be skewed by factors outside the offenses control. What's cratered is the offensive efficiency. Can't sustain/finish drives. 3 and outs in droves. Inability to capitalize on turnovers and short fields. These are the things that are the measure of a functional offense. These are the things that have become the norm.
It has gotten to the point where it is indefensible, yet some folks continue to do so.
 
This is old hat stuff. About a decade ago, there was an ex-NW QB who wrote a series of columns for the Chicago Tribune about NW football. One of the articles he wrote wS about the predictability of Iowa’s offense, based once again on tendencies, personnel and formation. Iowa was the most predictable team NW played annually...and according to the author, one if the most difficult because of their level of execution.
 
I remember there was a comparison between Cade and Petras’ first first games. The completion percentage were both 51% (that’s down right terrible). Petras had passed for roughly 100 more yards and Cade threw 2 or 3 more TDs while Petras threw something like 3 more interceptions.

It’s not like Cade forgot how to QB. I think having an offensive lineman as a QB coach and offensive coordinator isn’t smart, but also the offensive line is brutal.
I would argue the low completion percentage is determined by the passing scheme. The QBs change but the completion percentage remains the same. I think if you dropped the most accurate QB in college football in Iowa's system they would tap out in the low 60s.
They could fix this by adding RPOs and increasing the quick game as a percentage of the passing offense.
 
Yep, that's what they do. They also conveniently ignore last season's regular season record would have been AT LEAST 9-3 instead of 7-5 (and be in the BTCG) with even a slightly below average offense. Not to mention all the other wins that didn't happen because of the lousy offense.
 
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