I imagine there is a fair amount of misdirection and deception going on with Ukraine, us, and NATO, to keep Russia guessing what is coming next...
This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
We have an economy over 10x the size of Russia, add in the EU and it’s greater than 20x the Russian economy on the other side to fund this war effort.
Mexico would need the entire world to have double their GDP, and see it all united against the U.S., to create a similar scenario.
The U.S. DoD budget is roughly half Russian GDP.
Seminole, I don't really care of the above. I was just curious if you still believed that someone other than Russia attacked the Nordstream pipelines?
Some of the Big Red One equipment arrives in Poland.
"As part of the Atlantic Resolve operation, the equipment and American soldiers from the 1st Infantry Division will be stationed in the country and Europe for the next nine months, after which they will be replaced with other soldiers, Polish News reports.
This is the 20th transhipment of American equipment carried out at the terminal, said the commercial director of the BCT terminal, Michał Kużajczyk. “Equipment transshipments have been taking place since 2018. So far, exports have been the most common, but now the equipment that will be used in Poland has arrived,” he said.
After unloading, the new equipment is to be transported to the Port of Gdynia storage yard and in the next two weeks, it will be later delivered by trains and trucks to military bases located in various places in Poland, Kużajczyk said.
Next month, another floating unit with containers to be filled with 2,000 pieces of equipment of the 1st Infantry Division will arrive in Gdynia. Some will go to the country’s Eastern regions, where American troops will train together with the Polish army, as the TVN24 TV station reported."
https://www.euractiv.com/section/po...of-us-military-equipment-delivered-to-poland/
"As part of the Atlantic Resolve operation, the equipment and American soldiers from the 1st Infantry Division will be stationed in the country and Europe for the next nine months, after which they will be replaced with other soldiers, Polish News reports.
This is the 20th transhipment of American equipment carried out at the terminal, said the commercial director of the BCT terminal, Michał Kużajczyk. “Equipment transshipments have been taking place since 2018. So far, exports have been the most common, but now the equipment that will be used in Poland has arrived,” he said.
After unloading, the new equipment is to be transported to the Port of Gdynia storage yard and in the next two weeks, it will be later delivered by trains and trucks to military bases located in various places in Poland, Kużajczyk said.
Next month, another floating unit with containers to be filled with 2,000 pieces of equipment of the 1st Infantry Division will arrive in Gdynia. Some will go to the country’s Eastern regions, where American troops will train together with the Polish army, as the TVN24 TV station reported."
https://www.euractiv.com/section/po...of-us-military-equipment-delivered-to-poland/
Russia strikes me as the least likely suspect due predominantly to lack of motive in destroying their main vehicle for leverage over Western Europe, and to divide Western Europe from the U.S. and Central European aims.
That point was highlighted by the contemporaneous tweet from Radek Sikorski:
Who is he?
A former Polish Defense Minister, Radek Sikorski, has attributed to the United States the sabotage of two pipelines, Nord Stream 1 and 2, which carry natural gas from Russia to Germany. “Thank you, USA,” Sikorski wrote on Twitter. Sikorski was Minister of National Defense from 2005 - 2007 and served as Deputy Minister of National Defense and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, previously. He is currently an elected member of the European parliament.
And as I noted two months ago what makes this funny is if you click the link above for Sikorski's bio and read it to the end:
He negotiated and signed the Poland-Russia regional visa-free regime, Poland-U.S. missile defense agreement, and—together with foreign ministers of Germany and France—the accord between the pro-EU opposition and Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych in 2013. In 2012, Foreign Policy named him one of its 100 global thinkers for “telling the truth even when it’s not diplomatic.”
I know in 2015, after the Russians seized Crimea and moved into Luhansk and Donetsk, the Swedes found an explosive laden drone nestled next to the Nordstream pipeline. Later reports are that it was likely 'lost' during NATO exercises held in May of 2014. Could be completely innocent, but man, that's a hell of a coincidence. Do you notice that coincidence making the rounds in American media?
Now in June this year NATO held BALTOPS 22:
Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center (NIWC) Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring (MIREM) -- all under the direction of U.S. Sixth Fleet Task Force 68.
But like I said two months ago. There should be tons of circumstantial evidence pointing to at least half a dozen countries, just because it's a relatively narrow, glorified lake that a lot of navies operate through.
The Swedes making the investigation secret because it happened in their territorial waters doesn't add to transparency and trust, but the problem is an obvious terrorist attack on infrastructure is a legit issue of national security. Convenient if you don't want an international investigation though.
I don't think we'll see any kind of 'smoking gun' evidence emerge, which is why my opinion is driven by assessment of motives.
Conveniently Poland and Norway had just opened up a natural gas pipeline, so the gas that Poland was purchasing from Germany (via the Nordstream I) after the Yamal pipeline flows stopped because they wouldn't pay in rubles could now be sourced from Norway.
American officials have made clear where US policy on the pipeline stands.
We can’t say yet who blew up the pipelines. Matt Orfalea’s video captures three troubling things we already know about the Nord Stream blasts:
One, American officials have an extensive, years-long record of promising action to stop or disable the pipeline.
Two: those earlier statements were ignored both by officials and press commentators in asserting ad nauseam that the West did not have motive for the attack.
Three: despite a total absence of evidence, American voices repeatedly insisted Russia was behind the attack. The first weeks of coverage featured a blitz of commentary from politicians and intelligence and military officers who declared the unknown to be fact, often pointing a finger and admitting ignorance at the same time.
“We have to conclude, without the evidence, that it’s most likely… Russia is the cause of it,” said retired General Jack Keane.
Russia strikes me as the least likely suspect due predominantly to lack of motive in destroying their main vehicle for leverage over Western Europe, and to divide Western Europe from the U.S. and Central European aims.
That point was highlighted by the contemporaneous tweet from Radek Sikorski:
Who is he?
A former Polish Defense Minister, Radek Sikorski, has attributed to the United States the sabotage of two pipelines, Nord Stream 1 and 2, which carry natural gas from Russia to Germany. “Thank you, USA,” Sikorski wrote on Twitter. Sikorski was Minister of National Defense from 2005 - 2007 and served as Deputy Minister of National Defense and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, previously. He is currently an elected member of the European parliament.
And as I noted two months ago what makes this funny is if you click the link above for Sikorski's bio and read it to the end:
He negotiated and signed the Poland-Russia regional visa-free regime, Poland-U.S. missile defense agreement, and—together with foreign ministers of Germany and France—the accord between the pro-EU opposition and Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych in 2013. In 2012, Foreign Policy named him one of its 100 global thinkers for “telling the truth even when it’s not diplomatic.”
I know in 2015, after the Russians seized Crimea and moved into Luhansk and Donetsk, the Swedes found an explosive laden drone nestled next to the Nordstream pipeline. Later reports are that it was likely 'lost' during NATO exercises held in May of 2014. Could be completely innocent, but man, that's a hell of a coincidence. Do you notice that coincidence making the rounds in American media?
Now in June this year NATO held BALTOPS 22:
Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center (NIWC) Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring (MIREM) -- all under the direction of U.S. Sixth Fleet Task Force 68.
But like I said two months ago. There should be tons of circumstantial evidence pointing to at least half a dozen countries, just because it's a relatively narrow, glorified lake that a lot of navies operate through.
The Swedes making the investigation secret because it happened in their territorial waters doesn't add to transparency and trust, but the problem is an obvious terrorist attack on infrastructure is a legit issue of national security. Convenient if you don't want an international investigation though.
I don't think we'll see any kind of 'smoking gun' evidence emerge, which is why my opinion is driven by assessment of motives.
Conveniently Poland and Norway had just opened up a natural gas pipeline, so the gas that Poland was purchasing from Germany (via the Nordstream I) after the Yamal pipeline flows stopped because they wouldn't pay in rubles could now be sourced from Norway.
American officials have made clear where US policy on the pipeline stands.
We can’t say yet who blew up the pipelines. Matt Orfalea’s video captures three troubling things we already know about the Nord Stream blasts:
One, American officials have an extensive, years-long record of promising action to stop or disable the pipeline.
Two: those earlier statements were ignored both by officials and press commentators in asserting ad nauseam that the West did not have motive for the attack.
Three: despite a total absence of evidence, American voices repeatedly insisted Russia was behind the attack. The first weeks of coverage featured a blitz of commentary from politicians and intelligence and military officers who declared the unknown to be fact, often pointing a finger and admitting ignorance at the same time.
“We have to conclude, without the evidence, that it’s most likely… Russia is the cause of it,” said retired General Jack Keane.
That's never, ever stopped them from doing something to themselves, so they can blame someone else for it and use it to justify warmongering actions
#ApartmentBombingUsedToInvadeAndAttackChechia
All that shows is that you completely ignored my post from the other day. The US had intercepted Russian information and notified Germany and other European countries 2 weeks prior that Russia was planning to sabotage the pipelines and to be on the look out. This alone should be the smoking gun. 2 large boats were found on satellite images at the time of the explosions, the boats did not have transponders on, or were military ships not requiring transponders. Several individuals have tried to go back on earlier satellite images and they believe to have originated from Russia and are Russian ships. Russia appears to have scouted the area twice in the previous month from satellite imagery. Add in the fact is that the pipelines had stopped operating previously. The information continues to come out showing that Russia was likely the instigator. The fact you have ignored all this information I don't know what to say. There is more evidence of Russia doing it than the US. If you want to just post someone with theories but nothing to back up and believe, be my guest. They are now analyzing some of the components of the likely blast device. There is a possibility they can link it to a manufacturer.Russia strikes me as the least likely suspect due predominantly to lack of motive in destroying their main vehicle for leverage over Western Europe, and to divide Western Europe from the U.S. and Central European aims.
That point was highlighted by the contemporaneous tweet from Radek Sikorski:
Who is he?
A former Polish Defense Minister, Radek Sikorski, has attributed to the United States the sabotage of two pipelines, Nord Stream 1 and 2, which carry natural gas from Russia to Germany. “Thank you, USA,” Sikorski wrote on Twitter. Sikorski was Minister of National Defense from 2005 - 2007 and served as Deputy Minister of National Defense and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, previously. He is currently an elected member of the European parliament.
And as I noted two months ago what makes this funny is if you click the link above for Sikorski's bio and read it to the end:
He negotiated and signed the Poland-Russia regional visa-free regime, Poland-U.S. missile defense agreement, and—together with foreign ministers of Germany and France—the accord between the pro-EU opposition and Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych in 2013. In 2012, Foreign Policy named him one of its 100 global thinkers for “telling the truth even when it’s not diplomatic.”
I know in 2015, after the Russians seized Crimea and moved into Luhansk and Donetsk, the Swedes found an explosive laden drone nestled next to the Nordstream pipeline. Later reports are that it was likely 'lost' during NATO exercises held in May of 2014. Could be completely innocent, but man, that's a hell of a coincidence. Do you notice that coincidence making the rounds in American media?
Now in June this year NATO held BALTOPS 22:
Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center (NIWC) Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring (MIREM) -- all under the direction of U.S. Sixth Fleet Task Force 68.
But like I said two months ago. There should be tons of circumstantial evidence pointing to at least half a dozen countries, just because it's a relatively narrow, glorified lake that a lot of navies operate through.
The Swedes making the investigation secret because it happened in their territorial waters doesn't add to transparency and trust, but the problem is an obvious terrorist attack on infrastructure is a legit issue of national security. Convenient if you don't want an international investigation though.
I don't think we'll see any kind of 'smoking gun' evidence emerge, which is why my opinion is driven by assessment of motives.
Conveniently Poland and Norway had just opened up a natural gas pipeline, so the gas that Poland was purchasing from Germany (via the Nordstream I) after the Yamal pipeline flows stopped because they wouldn't pay in rubles could now be sourced from Norway.
American officials have made clear where US policy on the pipeline stands.
We can’t say yet who blew up the pipelines. Matt Orfalea’s video captures three troubling things we already know about the Nord Stream blasts:
One, American officials have an extensive, years-long record of promising action to stop or disable the pipeline.
Two: those earlier statements were ignored both by officials and press commentators in asserting ad nauseam that the West did not have motive for the attack.
Three: despite a total absence of evidence, American voices repeatedly insisted Russia was behind the attack. The first weeks of coverage featured a blitz of commentary from politicians and intelligence and military officers who declared the unknown to be fact, often pointing a finger and admitting ignorance at the same time.
“We have to conclude, without the evidence, that it’s most likely… Russia is the cause of it,” said retired General Jack Keane.
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I know people died and will die, but 6 out of 7 is pretty damn good given what they have. I imagine just like Poland ordering a gazillion HIMARS, Poland and other countries will order a gazillion air defense systems.
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"The exact cause of the explosion was uncertain. But it appears Ukraine has found a way to target Russia’s long range Tu-95 and Tu-22M aircraft, which are stationed at the airstrips. Since October the Kremlin had used these strategic bombers to wreck Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, bit by bit, leaving millions without heat and electricity as winter arrives.
There is speculation Kyiv has developed a strike drone with an astonishing 1,000km range. Late last month a Ukrainian serviceman said the weapon had already been used against the Russian military. If accurate, this means much of European Russia is now in reach. And that the asymmetric advantage Moscow has enjoyed this year – the ability to launch cruise missiles safely from deep inside Russia itself – is under threat."
Naval analysts said they believed Ukraine had developed an ingenious and lethal sea drone. Its components included a modified jet-ski and a remotely controlled camera, with a live feed back to a command and control centre. Plus explosives, attached to the front. Drones also appear to have played a role in another successful Ukrainian attack in August on the Saky airbase in Crimea, in which nine Russian warplanes were blown up.
Kyiv does not always tell its allies before it conducts certain types of risky military operations, western officials say. They believe the Ukrainians deliberately avoid disclosing attacks the west might try to dissuade them from carrying out, having previously come under pressure to abandon certain strikes. Attacks deep inside Russian territory are an area of particular sensitivity."
I don't 'completely ignore' any information. But how much credence do we put into such reports?
We know from the Snowden files release the lengths our government will go to falsely attribute our activities to other nations. It's not a not novel concept, or one we can honestly suggest is beyond the pale for our government to do. Remember, we hacked the German chancellor's phone for god knows how long until Snowden released that info.
How many grains of salt does the invocation of anonymous officials require?
What is the evidence of these assertions? All secret, right? We shouldn't even expect otherwise, just believe the secret evidence the existence of which was shared after the fact by anonymous sources? Understandable, and convenient.
In sharp contrast to the US’s antagonism, Russia has taken the opposite approach to the pipeline it spent billions of dollars to complete. As recently as three weeks ago, Putin expressed willingness to supply more gas if the EU would lift the sanctions against the newer pipeline. He said: “If things are so bad, just go ahead and lift sanctions against Nord Stream 2, with its 55 billion cubic meters per year — all they have to do is press the button and they will get going.” Diplomatic sources told the Cradle (9/29/22) that Russia and Germany were in talks about both NS1 and NS2 on the day of the explosion.
The day after the attack, German government sources leaked to the German daily Der Spiegel (9/28/22) that weeks earlier, the CIA warned Germany of a potential attack on the pipeline. However, sources told CNN (9/29/22) that the warnings were “vague” and that “it was not clear from the warnings who might be responsible for any attacks on the pipelines, or when they might occur.” A high-level source in German intelligence told the Cradle (9/29/22) that they were “furious” because “they were not in the loop.”
After the attack, Blinken called the bombing a “tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy,” and said that this “offers tremendous strategic opportunity for years to come.” On the other hand, Russia has already announced plans to begin repairing the pipeline.
Less compelling to me than, for example, when Russia released Nuland's call online discussing who to replace an elected Ukrainian president with a few weeks before his violent overthrow. But while the U.S. is celebrating the 'tremendous opportunity' to remove Russia from the European market, Russia announced plans to fix the pipeline you think they blew up? What sense does that make?
Blowing up the pipeline achieves stated goals of the U.S. and Poland, and runs contrary to interests of Russia (both financial and the diplomatic leverage).
Pointing to ships 'in the area' isn't just very compelling, because that's easy to do for just about any neighboring nation as I've explained, and you haven't sourced any of this info you're referencing.
Is it from MUFON, or the AP, or what?
What do you make of the news of an explosive laden submersible being discovered next to the pipeline in 2015?
Does that not even raise an eyebrow? Just a wacky coincidence?
Anyone offering what they think happened is 'posting a theory'.
You have adopted the theory that the Russians did it, I just can't fathom a motive for the Russians to do it so I don't hold them as likely as the people with stated and demonstrable interests in seeing the pipelines sundered.
Russians did it because gas prices were declining, they wanted to fund their war with higher prices. This has been discussed. As to the rest of the sources, here is a handful. The pipelines were currently inoperable and the new pipeline to transfer had just been completed the day prior.
CIA warned Berlin about possible attacks on gas pipelines in summer - Spiegel
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had weeks ago warned Germany about possible attacks on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, German magazine Spiegel said on Tuesday, after gas leaks in Russia pipelines to Germany were reported.
www.reuters.com
‘Dark Ships’ Emerge From the Shadows of the Nord Stream Mystery
Satellite monitors discovered two vessels with their trackers turned off in the area of the pipeline prior to the suspected sabotage in September.
Russia claims London blew up the pipelines. So not sure why you are still blaming the US.
Russia says UK navy blew up Nord Stream, London denies involvement
Moscow did not give evidence for its claim that a leading NATO member had sabotaged critical Russian infrastructure amid the worst crisis in relations between the West and Russia since the depths of the Cold War.
www.reuters.com
If you want to support the Russian view then support it. They don't even state that the US did it.
As to the repairs there is an article from October stating it could take more than a year before repairs could be completed in the damage section. However there are 2 different articles I have read stating the salt water would cause significant damage and weakening of the rest of the pipeline that would make both pipelines unusable.
I guess I question you talking out of both sides of your mouth. You want to state Russia didn't do it. Then you throw the US under the bus purely by conjecture. You have Russia that states they think London did it, again with no proof, negating your argument. You state Germany was upset that the US did not give more specific information of where the approximate location of the attack was and who was behind the attack. If that is your claim that is a bunch of hogwash. The US likely didn't know where, and whether they stated it was Russian intelligence or not bears no difference. Germans can be upset that they didn't follow up further or request more information - of the available information. However in intelligence, you don't always get the full picture, its bits and pieces and that is what likely occurred here. So you are undermining intelligence along with this. Its not say remain open minded, but also be aware of what is the most likely outcome. You also have internet sleuths who are trying to track the boats previous movements. I would not be surprised they get hard proof on where the boats came from. They are currently speculating Russian ships but we will see where that rabbit hole goes.
I won't completely throw out all information of Snowden, but I do want to remind you he has pledged full allegiance to Russia. He may have not been a russian agent, but as the article states he was a russain stooge and asset. The allegiance proves that, A. Russia offering but Snowden also accepting. Kind of makes you question using Snowden as one of your key pieces to support your claim against the US vs Russia.
Edward Snowden gets Russian passport after swearing oath of allegiance
Whistleblower is ‘happy and thankful to the Russian Federation’ for his citizenship, lawyer says
Snowden wasn’t a Russian agent, but a traitor just the same
OPINION | It’s irrelevant whether he was an agent or not. His impact was the same.
thehill.com
Also does Sikorski still stand by a tweet that he did immediately after the attack with no supporting sources or information? He deleted them immediately. He was previously a defense minister but had no current appointment or resources. So you want to state ignore all speculation, yet use Sikorski (who was purely speculation) as your defense. No offense your information and arguments are primarily hogwash. Also Sikroski is an individual who has seemed to support russian interests, similar to other US politicians, Tucker Carlson and You.
PM accuses former FM of feeding Russian propaganda
Poland's prime minister has castigated former Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski over a tweet he posted earlier in the week suggesting the US was behind apparent sabotage of Russia-Germany gas pipelines.
www.thefirstnews.com
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Man I wish I was 19 and in the Ukrainian military. Holy crap.
But how do they benefit from them when their method of export is destroyed?
Expecting them to make up in margin what they lose in volume? Does the math really support that?
Yes, sanctions were preventing turbine maintenance (we have posts in this thread on the subject going back months), but that's in no way equivocal to blowing up the pipelines.
The other pipeline that had just been completed was from Norwegian gas fields to Poland. That pipeline meant that Poland didn't have to buy Russian gas from Germany via Nordstream I anymore.
That's why I think U.S. - Poland, with the most to benefit, are the most likely to have done it.
They seem to have a fetish with the British and 007 exploits from what I've gathered on the battlefront forum that has some Russian speakers that provide commentary on their most popular Telegram feeds.
Historically, from a Great Game perspective, the Brits are longtime foes of Russia, and would figure prominently in how Russian nationalists look at the world.
But I don't see particular advantages conferred on Brits from a move like this, and a whole of lot risk. The UK just wanted out of the EU, the neocons are the ones who want to "**** the EU".
Look at the last 8 years from the PNAC perspective and almost everything is coming up roses (excepting that hiccup where Trump negotiated a withdrawal from Afghanistan that the public supported and couldn't be easily reversed).
Your mistake is assuming a 'Russian view'.
I just assess the public statements of U.S. officials about why they want to see Nordstream 'ended'.
This APnews article suggests otherwise, but it really doesn't matter, does it?
Russia began blaming the U.S. quickly after the damage was reported Monday night. On Friday, speaking at a ceremony to annex four Ukrainian regions, Russian President Vladimir Putin said “Anglo-Saxons” in the West were behind the “terror attacks” but did not specify any nations.
Pravda and other Russian state outlets reported Thursday that the U.S. operates underwater robots capable of carrying out the acts of sabotage. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman wrote about her suspicions of U.S. involvement in a Telegram post.
Yep, I posted the same stuff in this thread months ago.
But again, what is the profit in blowing up a pipeline that costs billions to build, has over a half a billion in gas sitting in it, and will take years to repair?
You really think Russia is going to make up on margin what they are losing on volume here? I know from other conversations you're smart enough to genuinely consider this. Does it really add up?
Are the sanctions on Russian gas and oil making them richer, or poorer?
The answer from the European side is easy enough to figure out.
I haven't stated that anybody "didn't do it".
I've pointed out from the outset that circumstantial evidence will exist to point fingers at a lot of people, and that we'll likely never see a smoking gun (and that was before the the Swedes decided to make the investigation secret), so all that we have to examine are motives.
The neocon motives regarding that pipeline have been stated loudly and proudly for years and years. They're unmistakable and undeniable.
The purported Russian motives really don't add up to me, especially in light of the leverage Nordstream provided.
Specifically, their own 'conjecture'.
Do those statements count for nothing?
Russia blames 'the West', I addressed your confusion on this above.
It doesn't negate anything regarding motives declared by our politicians and diplomats.
Wait, so you're basing your beliefs on "internet sleuths" "with no proof"?
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Just imagine how scared they'd be if we used any of our GOOD Nato stuff on them!
This is like JV-level equipment.
Pussies.
"Is this an AirBnB review for Orcs?"
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This comes down to 1 thing and 1 thing only, those pipelines were never going to be used again. Nordstream 2 had already been mothballed, Nordstream 1 was getting to the end of its lifeline and surprise surprise a fully functioning pipeline just became operational. I may give you more credence if Russia ever truly tries to repair the pipelines. It doesn't appear they will, even though you state otherwise. Europe will never have the demand of Russian natural gas to those volumes ever again.But how do they benefit from them when their method of export is destroyed?
Expecting them to make up in margin what they lose in volume? Does the math really support that?
Yes, sanctions were preventing turbine maintenance (we have posts in this thread on the subject going back months), but that's in no way equivocal to blowing up the pipelines.
The other pipeline that had just been completed was from Norwegian gas fields to Poland. That pipeline meant that Poland didn't have to buy Russian gas from Germany via Nordstream I anymore.
That's why I think U.S. - Poland, with the most to benefit, are the most likely to have done it.
They seem to have a fetish with the British and 007 exploits from what I've gathered on the battlefront forum that has some Russian speakers that provide commentary on their most popular Telegram feeds.
Historically, from a Great Game perspective, the Brits are longtime foes of Russia, and would figure prominently in how Russian nationalists look at the world.
But I don't see particular advantages conferred on Brits from a move like this, and a whole of lot risk. The UK just wanted out of the EU, the neocons are the ones who want to "**** the EU".
Look at the last 8 years from the PNAC perspective and almost everything is coming up roses (excepting that hiccup where Trump negotiated a withdrawal from Afghanistan that the public supported and couldn't be easily reversed).
Your mistake is assuming a 'Russian view'.
I just assess the public statements of U.S. officials about why they want to see Nordstream 'ended'.
This APnews article suggests otherwise, but it really doesn't matter, does it?
Russia began blaming the U.S. quickly after the damage was reported Monday night. On Friday, speaking at a ceremony to annex four Ukrainian regions, Russian President Vladimir Putin said “Anglo-Saxons” in the West were behind the “terror attacks” but did not specify any nations.
Pravda and other Russian state outlets reported Thursday that the U.S. operates underwater robots capable of carrying out the acts of sabotage. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman wrote about her suspicions of U.S. involvement in a Telegram post.
Yep, I posted the same stuff in this thread months ago.
But again, what is the profit in blowing up a pipeline that costs billions to build, has over a half a billion in gas sitting in it, and will take years to repair?
You really think Russia is going to make up on margin what they are losing on volume here? I know from other conversations you're smart enough to genuinely consider this. Does it really add up?
Are the sanctions on Russian gas and oil making them richer, or poorer?
The answer from the European side is easy enough to figure out.
I haven't stated that anybody "didn't do it".
I've pointed out from the outset that circumstantial evidence will exist to point fingers at a lot of people, and that we'll likely never see a smoking gun (and that was before the the Swedes decided to make the investigation secret), so all that we have to examine are motives.
The neocon motives regarding that pipeline have been stated loudly and proudly for years and years. They're unmistakable and undeniable.
The purported Russian motives really don't add up to me, especially in light of the leverage Nordstream provided.
Specifically, their own 'conjecture'.
Do those statements count for nothing?
Russia blames 'the West', I addressed your confusion on this above.
It doesn't negate anything regarding motives declared by our politicians and diplomats.
Wait, so you're basing your beliefs on "internet sleuths" "with no proof"?
How Russian Gas in Europe Is Dwindling
The fuel that once flowed freely has been abruptly reduced, sending prices soaring and forcing European governments to struggle for solutions.
"On the other hand, the natural gas market is spooked, which helps Russia by raising the price of its gas. On Monday, prices for European gas futures had fallen by nearly half from their high in August. After news of the leaks, they rose nearly 20 percent to about 205 euros (or $191) per megawatt-hour, roughly five times the level of a year ago."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/world/europe/nordstream-pipeline-gas-leak-explosions.html
Let alone Russians main point of shutting down the pipelines was to cause pain to Europe during the winter and try to wane their support of Ukraine. How many times did Putin or other russian talking heads claim Europe should enjoy being cold during the winter?
Putin threatens Europe again as Brussels braces for winter
Gazprom chief says Europe could freeze as EU makes more plans to protect gas supplies from Putin’s war.
www.politico.eu
Altenative pipelines can get the 5-10-20% of supply to Europe that they will likely utilize in the future. No country is going to heavily rely on Russia again for natural gas when it can just shut down the spigot. Or do you think demand from Europe is going to go back to 40% again. You want to claim those pipelines were still an asset, when the reality is their value had already been torpedoed by Putins war. The fact you can't recognize that again shows your inability to understand any solid argument against a Russian motive. This isn't rocket science.
As to the internet sleuthing. Some of those individuals were same ones who had the access that discovered these boats that didn't have their transponders on and gave the information to the relevant authorities. It is no longer speculation when you get concrete evidence like tracking down the boats, or do you totally ignore those facts? I was implying they may get more concrete proof in the future, yet you put up some silly picture? OK what grade are you in again?
"Noting that one of the pipelines is still potentially operational after the attack, Putin insisted Russia was ready to send gas through it to ease Europe’s pain this winter — bringing his overarching strategy of gas blackmail against Europe right up to date." Essentially Russia still has an operational pipeline to meet the needs of Europe and Russia knows it. It appears to all be game of Russia.
Putin threatens Europe again as Brussels braces for winter
Gazprom chief says Europe could freeze as EU makes more plans to protect gas supplies from Putin’s war.
www.politico.eu
I am giving you all the sourcing you need to support my arguments, since you seem to need them.
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That "method of export" was already destroyed by sanctions.
Blowing it up and blaming others is a perfect hedge, as it also spikes prices for them to export by ship at higher prices; they weren't getting anything delivered thru those lines, anyway. And NS2 was already DOA.
1. They are super good at stealing money, not tactical/strategic war fighting efforts. And, a lot of the efforts are by individual actors with state approval. There doesn't seem to be much coordination.
2. Ukraine, and the West seems to have been ready, and been deploying countermeasures.
He must be extra triggered knowing that more US equipment and personnel is in Poland, and Team Belarus is equipped with the s*** so bad the Russians handed it down them.
