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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

As we near 3000 dead tanks (and assuming they count captured ones in this) keep in mind “At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database.”


The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.

The database’s 2016 publication also indicates that Russia has roughly 2,800 Cold War legacy T-55s (the first tank type to feature a nuclear warfare protection system in the 1950s) in storage, as well as 2,500 T-62s and 2,000 T-64s.

This means that Russia may have around 17,300 tanks produced between the late 1950s and now.

It likely does – on paper.

In reality, nobody – likely not even Russia – knows precisely how many of those estimated thousands can emerge from the mothballs and be made operational again.

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A local man plays guitar sitting on a destroyed Russian T-80 tank displayed in downtown Kyiv on Aug. 25, 2022 (Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency

The only way to confirm is to count the tanks sitting at Russian bases.

An analysis of Google Maps satellite images of 19 Russian military storage facilities mainly located east of Russia’s Ural Mountains by the Ukrainian Military Center, a Ukrainian military defense news site, estimates that 2,299 tanks appear unrestorable.

Stored in the open for decades, they are basically heaps of rusty scrap metal ready for nothing but disposal.

Another estimated 1,304 machines are thought to be in a dubious state.

“Those are tanks that can be potentially restored at tank maintenance facilities,” the website wrote on Aug. 22.

“But they would have to be loaded up a train, transported to a certain tank factory, unloaded, taken to a certain workshop, then examined for defects. What happens next is the search for appropriate parts, some of which are out of production or require new production processes.”

“This would take a lot of time,” the report concluded.

Another 2,075 tanks seem recoverable, although some would likely need to be taken to tank factories.

An estimated 886 tanks are effectively stored and are likely to be made fully operational.
 
Not linking, but I will paraphrase an article in The Economist this week. The easiest of the counter offensives are over for Ukraine. They are now getting to territory that Russia has had 8 years to flush out Ukrainians. The Donbas and Crimea have been purged of Ukrainians, and offensive action will be met with active resistance, unlike the action of the last few months where Ukrainians could count on support and intel from the locals. And, will there be less overt support from the West as the Ukrainians inch closer to Russia? Clearly Russia isn't really threatened by an invasion, but will Putin use incursions into Russia as an excuse to lob a nuke into Ukraine?
The Ukrainians seem determined to retake Crimea, but that peninsula is a literally a graveyard for invading armies. The best action right now seems to be a thrust to the Sea of Azov that will cut the Russian forces into two main groups, and eliminating a land bridge from Russia to Crimea.
Not so sure about that.

The Donbas and Crimea fanbois have been shoved to the front lines; I suspect the Russians have done the same things to residents there as elsewhere due to lack of discipline.
 
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