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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

It is one of the biggest mysteries of war. I know some of it was they quickly realized they were vulnerable and got scared of losing so many expensive planes and pilots. A while back I read an article that theorized a big issue is like everything else in the Russian Military, a ton of money had been diverted from corruption and they did not have near the planes, maintenance crews and even pilots they represented on paper. That is why you never saw the big shock and awe you would have expected those first weeks of war. I mean really the war should have started like the Gulf War I where we pounded Irag for weeks before sending troops. And the pilots are a big thing because ~400 or even more of their best plane and helicopter pilots are dead, wounded, or captured.
I'm not sure that Russia really has the usable airframes and pilots that they claim to have. They've lost a few pilots. I think war doctrine plays a large part, but the pilots clearly are not pressing attacks. And, I wonder if Russia is in this area holding stuff in reserve because they fear their Eastern borders are now very vulnerable.
 
WASHINGTON (AP) — Support among the American public for providing Ukraine weaponry and direct economic assistance has softened as the Russian invasion nears a grim one-year milestone, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Forty-eight percent say they favor the U.S. providing weapons to Ukraine, with 29% opposed and 22% saying they’re neither in favor nor opposed. In May 2022, less than three months into the war, 60% of U.S. adults said they were in favor of sending Ukraine weapons.

Americans are about evenly divided on sending government funds directly to Ukraine, with 37% in favor and 38% opposed, with 23% saying neither. The signs of diminished support for Ukraine come as President Joe Biden is set to travel to Poland next week to mark the first anniversary of the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II.


 
Link if you want to read in one spot and see pics:


Two things really pop out for me:

  1. Russians like to ban books from schools just like certain "frontrunning" Republicans. Either Russians are Republicans, or those "mainstream" Republicans indeed are acting like fascists.
  2. Russians destroying things and hurting people based on their own insecurities and shortcomings seems eerily similar to the messaging we get from a large segment of today's GOP: they have no solutions, they just want to target other people to make themselves "feel" better and appear more important. No solutions, just targeting.

It would be nice, if we could get a conservative leader who could reclaim that party, and steer it away from these tendencies; not seeing that happening anytime soon, though. And the more the GOP move in those directions, the more they are like the fascist/authoritarian Russians. That should make them awkward and uncomfortable, but it seems to be the opposite.
 


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They probably mean "will begin production" but never underestimate Germany when it wants to do something:)

"Rheinmetall begins production of hundreds of thousands of ammunition for the Ukrainian Gepard Production capacity was established at the plant in Lower Saxony"

 


"Many in Poland hope their new 2 billion zloty (€420 million) canal and harbour project gives Moscow one less excuse for war. Begun in 2019 and forecast to be fully operational by year-end, it will allow ships to pass a lock to reach eastern Poland directly. Since 1945, every ship heading this way has had to make a 100km detour – and seek permission to pass Kaliningrad from Russian authorities.

“Russia always thought they could control this area, but not any more,” says Jacek Kościuch, a local Polish harbourmaster official. Staring out at the glinting water, he says the canal was completed despite – or perhaps because of – war-related material shortages and cost spikes. “This canal removes the remnants of cold war in people’s minds and will open this region to the world.”
 
WASHINGTON (AP) — Support among the American public for providing Ukraine weaponry and direct economic assistance has softened as the Russian invasion nears a grim one-year milestone, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Forty-eight percent say they favor the U.S. providing weapons to Ukraine, with 29% opposed and 22% saying they’re neither in favor nor opposed. In May 2022, less than three months into the war, 60% of U.S. adults said they were in favor of sending Ukraine weapons.

Americans are about evenly divided on sending government funds directly to Ukraine, with 37% in favor and 38% opposed, with 23% saying neither. The signs of diminished support for Ukraine come as President Joe Biden is set to travel to Poland next week to mark the first anniversary of the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II.


This represents one of the key beliefs of the Russian mindset. Basically that the west is soft, won't be willing to make sacrifices, and will eventually lose interest.
 
I had forgotten about this when I posted about the armor movement through Moldova. (I was dubious.) We had already learned of another rail line being opened.

"Life in Odessa → Another border crossing with Moldova will be opened in the Odessa region"

 

Took them a long time to decide that. Our 8 house members in Putin's pocket did a hard "no" 10 months ago.

Four Republicans, four Democrats vote ‘no’ on bill urging Biden to confiscate assets from sanctioned oligarchs

Eight House lawmakers voted against a largely symbolic bill on Wednesday that urges President Biden to confiscate assets from sanctioned Russian oligarchs and use the funds to support Ukraine.

The legislation, dubbed the Asset Seizure for Ukraine Reconstruction Act, passed in a 417-8 vote.

The lawmakers who voted against the bill are among the most liberal and most conservative members of the House.

Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas) voted against the bill.

The Hill reached out to the lawmakers for more information on why they did not support the legislation.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/...-confiscate-assets-from-sanctioned-oligarchs/
 
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Took them a long time to decide that. Our 8 house members in Putin's pocket did a hard "no" 10 months ago.

Four Republicans, four Democrats vote ‘no’ on bill urging Biden to confiscate assets from sanctioned oligarchs

Eight House lawmakers voted against a largely symbolic bill on Wednesday that urges President Biden to confiscate assets from sanctioned Russian oligarchs and use the funds to support Ukraine.

The legislation, dubbed the Asset Seizure for Ukraine Reconstruction Act, passed in a 417-8 vote.

The lawmakers who voted against the bill are among the most liberal and most conservative members of the House.

Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas) voted against the bill.

The Hill reached out to the lawmakers for more information on why they did not support the legislation.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/...-confiscate-assets-from-sanctioned-oligarchs/
Didn't realize the squad and bat shit crazy MAGA voted together. Figures...
 
"The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain," he said, adding that the alliance needed "to ramp up production."

Frank Sauer, a security expert at Universität der Bundeswehr München (University of the Bundeswehr in Munich), told DW that he also thought the shortage of ammunition was the "fundamental problem" at the moment — much more than the much-debated air defense systems and tanks.

Increasing production capacity is of the utmost importance, agreed Nico Lange, a military expert from the Munich Security Conference and former chief of staff at the German Defense Ministry.

"From my point of view, [the ammunition shortage] is more important than any symbolic discussion," he told DW, explaining that this was related to Russia's military strategy. Russia's attack tactic — "frontal attacks on the front line in many sections — can only be successful if Ukraine runs out of ammunition," he argued, adding that this should be avoided at all costs with Western support.

What are the consequences of the ammunition shortage for Ukraine?​

Ukrainian commanders are being forced to make "very tough decisions" on the use of ammunition said DW correspondent Nick Connolly. "I've met commanders of howitzers, of artillery pieces, who've told me that they don't know how long they can keep doing their job, if they will be forced to withdraw and move away from positions and wait for more artillery," Connolly said in Kyiv. "This is a very real problem."

 
"The current rate of Ukraine's ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production. This puts our defense industries under strain," he said, adding that the alliance needed "to ramp up production."

Frank Sauer, a security expert at Universität der Bundeswehr München (University of the Bundeswehr in Munich), told DW that he also thought the shortage of ammunition was the "fundamental problem" at the moment — much more than the much-debated air defense systems and tanks.

Increasing production capacity is of the utmost importance, agreed Nico Lange, a military expert from the Munich Security Conference and former chief of staff at the German Defense Ministry.

"From my point of view, [the ammunition shortage] is more important than any symbolic discussion," he told DW, explaining that this was related to Russia's military strategy. Russia's attack tactic — "frontal attacks on the front line in many sections — can only be successful if Ukraine runs out of ammunition," he argued, adding that this should be avoided at all costs with Western support.

What are the consequences of the ammunition shortage for Ukraine?​

Ukrainian commanders are being forced to make "very tough decisions" on the use of ammunition said DW correspondent Nick Connolly. "I've met commanders of howitzers, of artillery pieces, who've told me that they don't know how long they can keep doing their job, if they will be forced to withdraw and move away from positions and wait for more artillery," Connolly said in Kyiv. "This is a very real problem."

I will just throw this out there - what is that actual, plausible downside of drawing down our stocks of ammo more while ramping up production to backfill long term? Would doing so lessen our operational readiness? Maybe, I do not know. But who is actually out there to fire the bullets and shells at? If one article is accurate, 97% of the Russian army is in Ukraine. So that leaves who, China? We are not engaging in a land war with China anytime soon. Am I oversimplifying it?
 
I will just throw this out there - what is that actual, plausible downside of drawing down our stocks of ammo more while ramping up production to backfill long term? Would doing so lessen our operational readiness? Maybe, I do not know. But who is actually out there to fire the bullets and shells at? If one article is accurate, 97% of the Russian army is in Ukraine. So that leaves who, China? We are not engaging in a land war with China anytime soon. Am I oversimplifying it?
I think the problem with the Ukrainians is they have a hodge podge of Russian/Western artillery/APC's/Rocket launchers ect of multiple calibers....makes getting enough ammo to them even more difficult.

I'm not sure anyone at the Pentagon or in the administration would agree to depleting our own stocks to the point where it would call into question our own combat capabilities.
 
I think the problem with the Ukrainians is they have a hodge podge of Russian/Western artillery/APC's/Rocket launchers ect of multiple calibers....makes getting enough ammo to them even more difficult.

I'm not sure anyone at the Pentagon or in the administration would agree to depleting our own stocks to the point where it would call into question our own combat capabilities.
Makes sense. I guess I was thinking in terms of not plausibly calling into question our combat capabilities. For example, I assume our stocks are there for multiple fronts around the globe at the same time. Realistically though, we are not going to need to engage on multiple fronts around the globe at the same time. For example, when we engaged the Iraq wars, that put a major dent in our ability do that, but we did so anyways because we thought it was in our national interest, even though in theory another country could have attempted to attack us or our allies at that time. So if the Iraq war used up 50% of our ability to wage war or to protect our interests elsewhere, say through NATO, and drawing down stocks to help Ukraine would use up 1% of our ability to wage war while simultaneously eliminating a prime candidate on who would have to fight, is there really risk of actual downside?
 
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