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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

CNN Exclusive: Inside Ukraine’s fight for the Dnipro River​

As Serhiy Ostapenko hunkered down in his pickup truck, hiding under trees for cover in the dead of night, the crashing booms of Russian bombardment rumbled around him.

“The enemy is shelling us 24 hours a day. I don’t remember the last time there was silence for more than an hour,” said the 32-year-old Ukrainian drone pilot, speaking from the right bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine – one of the new frontlines in a grinding war that’s now entering its second winter.

Ostapenko is a member of the “Sons of Thunder” drone unit, part of Ukraine’s operation to cross the Dnipro, pushing back Russian forces and establishing a sustained presence on the left bank. Earlier this month, Ukraine said it had “gained a foothold” on the bank, a potentially significant advance in what has so far been a lackluster counteroffensive.

But during CNN’s exclusive access with Ostapenko, his night mission had just been aborted because the Russians had identified his unit’s position on the right bank – forcing them to take shelter.

“That’s another one – I think it was a rocket,” he told CNN as another boom rang out, his face lit only by a dim red light. “Every time I enter this zone … I say goodbye to my life every time, because I realize that my life can be ended at any moment, because either a rocket or a shell will strike. You get used to it, but it is unpleasant.”


Advancing on the Dnipro​

The 2,200 kilometer (1,400 mile) long Dnipro is Europe’s fourth longest river, flowing from Russia, through Belarus and Ukraine to the Black Sea.

It winds through the marshlands of Russian-occupied Kherson region – with Russian troops forced to retreat across the river last November after being pushed out from Kherson city by Ukrainian fighters.

The liberation of the city, after eight months of brutal occupation, was a euphoric victory and a key moment in Ukraine’s war effort. But the year since has brought little relief, with Kherson city and its surrounding region still under relentless bombardment by Russian forces across the river.

The Dnipro, which at some points stretches a mile wide, serves as a natural defensive barrier for Russian troops – which is partly why it has become a major target for Kyiv. Ukrainian forces have previously staged cross-river raids, but establishing a firm bridgehead across the river and pushing back the Russians could help better protect Kherson city by putting more distance between civilians and enemy artillery.
And – at least theoretically – an advance on the left bank could give Kyiv a launching place to push further south toward occupied Crimea, the peninsula Russia illegally annexed in 2014.

Ukrainian armed forces say they’ve pushed back Russian troops 3 to 8 kilometers (2 to 5 miles) back from the river.

“Now our (troops) are advancing on the other side of the Dnipro. It is very difficult, we are making a lot of effort to make it possible and to build up our strength on the other side of the Dnipro,” said Ostapenko.
He added that “certain connections” had been established across the river, allowing Ukrainian troops to transport “weapons, ammunition, food, fuel” to their partners “on the other side.”

His aerial reconnaissance unit, meanwhile, works to provide cover for soldiers crossing the river, to surveil Russian troops and movements, and to help mask the locations of Ukrainian troops and equipment.

It’s dangerous work; Ostapenko described facing a daily barrage of “kamikaze drones, I think it’s Shaheds, rockets, most likely Grad rocket launcher, mortars, and tanks.”

But, he added, the bombardment could be seen as a good sign: “The enemy is trying to resist as much as possible, which indicates that we are doing everything right. We are causing them many problems, and (they are) trying to fight it.”

‘We have to survive’​

All the while, in Kherson city, the jubilation of last year’s liberation has faded for some residents as they focus on just getting through each day.

“When it is quiet, it is even scarier than when there is shelling,” said 54-year-old Inna Balyoha. “You’re waiting, you’re constantly listening, turning the radio down. So that you can hear the sounds outside the window, so that you can react in time to the shelling.”
She’s one of roughly 73,000 residents still in Kherson – less than a quarter of its original population of 300,000. Between having to care for her 4-year-old grandson and frail 87-year-old mother, “the decision not to leave was made a long time ago,” she said.

But living in the midst of war has taken its toll. One of her grandson’s first words was “alarm,” she said. “He knows how to react if there is an air raid siren. He knows where to go. If explosions are heard outside the window, he has a little hiding place in the hallway.”

The shelling has gotten so bad that they’ve stopped going outside for short walks, mostly staying at home now. “Right now, I’m doing everything that depends on me to keep the child safe,” she said. “Our main task is to survive. That was the main task during the occupation. And it is now. We have to survive.”
Attacks on Kherson have intensified in the past month, at one point reaching 700 incoming rounds in one day, according to Oleksandr Prokudin, the head of Kherson region’s military administration.

Russian troops are “hitting residential areas more often because our defenders are advancing, and they are trying to intimidate ordinary citizens in places close to the Dnipro River,” said Prokudin. “This is revenge, and now it is felt more, because our soldiers are already on the left bank of the Kherson region. The civilians of the Kherson region feel this revenge more.”

But, he added, each Kherson resident was an “example of courage.” As tough as conditions are, Kherson is still free from Russian occupation – meaning people can “communicate freely, walk freely on our land,” he said. “Home gives people strength. They are holding on because they are at home.”
@MTG and @SpeakerJohnson, and all the rest who want to turn their back on the people on the front lines protecting Western Europe.
 
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https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/23/7429984/

7cc5b7c-9f80943-41e9501b-bd40854a7bb21d06c45d44da1a84c0de.png
I've been looking for more information on this. I hope it signals discontent inside Russia, or a deep strike by Ukraine. But, it also could just be shoddy Russian craftsmanship and cheap materials being used because the good stuff was skimmed off by a corrupt official. Either way, Im glad the Russian home front is under stress.
 

Ukraine’s military says Russia launched its largest drone attack since the start of the invasion​


KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia on Saturday morning launched its most intense drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion in 2022, targeting the Ukrainian capital, military officials said.

In total, Russia launched 75 Iranian-made Shahed drones against Ukraine, of which 74 were destroyed by air defenses, Ukraine’s air force said.

“Kyiv was the main target,” Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk wrote on his Telegram channel.

 
Zelensky meeting with the Lithuanian and Swiss PMs, and grain export talk. If you don't want to read it, Ukraine needs more air defenses, and something might be in the works for convoys, or something with Western protection is how I read it. He blames strife with Slovakian and Polish truck drivers over grain shipments on internal politics.
Also, I hope he punched the Swiss PM in the throat.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...s-protect-grain-exports-zelenskiy-2023-11-25/
 
More about potential enhancements to air defenses. Zelensky is saying that Ukraine has been promised warships.
Hmm. From where, and with what capabilities? And, with Turkey straddling the fence, how do these ships get to Ukrainian waters? Romania and Bulgaria don't have robust enough navies to deliver ships. Hopefully the US isn't giving them some Littoral ships.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24639
 
More about potential enhancements to air defenses. Zelensky is saying that Ukraine has been promised warships.
Hmm. From where, and with what capabilities? And, with Turkey straddling the fence, how do these ships get to Ukrainian waters? Romania and Bulgaria don't have robust enough navies to deliver ships. Hopefully the US isn't giving them some Littoral ships.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24639
I remember they were to get some minesweepers and patrol boats from somewhere.
 

Manpower becomes Ukraine’s latest challenge as it digs in for a long war​

Kyiv seeks to persuade younger recruits with better endurance and higher skills to join up



Of the four men who lined up at an army recruitment centre in Kyiv one morning this month, only one was there voluntarily. Oleksandr, a 34-year-old used-car dealer, said he could no longer watch from the sidelines after five acquaintances were killed in Europe’s biggest war since 1945. He built up a financial cushion for his wife and newborn child before deciding to fight. “It’s time,” he said.



The others had received mobilisation notices. Two said medical conditions had previously prevented them from serving: one cited brain damage from a freak accident, the other metal plates in his spine. The fourth — Yevhen, a 42-year-old sales manager with no military experience — said: “I’m not going to hide, but I honestly don’t know what I can contribute.” The meagre queue was a far cry from the thousands of volunteers who lined up at recruitment centres following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. It underscored the challenge facing Ukraine, with a population of less than 40mn, nearly two years into a war against an enemy with more than three times the number of people: how to maintain a flow of recruits into the armed forces without stirring social unrest and how to build capacity to enable Kyiv to regain the battlefield initiative.


General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s top military commander, told The Economist earlier this month that to break the “stalemate” — a term that earned him a rebuke from the government — he needed not just new capabilities in artillery, mine clearance and electronic warfare but “to build up our reserves”.


However, our capacity to train reserves on our own territory is also limited,” Zaluzhnyi wrote separately in an opinion article. “We cannot easily spare soldiers who are deployed to the front, [and] Russia can strike training centres. And there are gaps in our legislation that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities.” Selective conscription has continued since February 2022 but has lost steam as the grim reality of a long, gruelling war sets in. According to a BBC investigation, nearly 20,000 Ukrainian men evaded call-up notices either by slipping out of the country in defiance of an exit ban or fraudulently acquiring permission to leave. In August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired all the country’s regional army recruitment chiefs over the issuance of medical exemptions in return for bribes. Ukrainian officials and western analysts say it is not just a question of numbers but of fitness, capability and skills. The average age of Ukrainians at the front and those trained by western allies has been 30-40, rather than more usual 18-24, said Jack Watling, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think-tank. The issue was not troop quantity but the “quality and capacity to command operations at scale”, he said.

Mobilisation early last year disproportionately pulled in older men with military experience, but younger men with more endurance and skills were now needed, he added.



Ukraine needs infantry in top physical shape,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The physical requirements for the infantry are demanding and have increased as this conflict has settled into small-scale infantry engagement fought on foot in trench systems.” Ukraine keeps its troop and casualty numbers secret. Experts and local officials have suggested it had 1mn men and women under arms last year, including territorial defence, secret services and border guards — double the pre-February 2022 number. US officials estimate that about 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and up to 120,000 injured, compared with about 200,000 Russian dead. Kyiv has put Russia’s death toll at more than 300,000.



To help fill the ranks, Ukrainian officials have set up roadside checkpoints to seek men evading the draft. If they are deemed fit, they are whisked off to draft offices. Online videos of recruitment officers picking men off the streets and forcing them into minivans have gone viral. Zaluzhnyi said efforts were under way to set up a unified register of draftees. He also revealed a “combat internship” concept, which involves “placing newly mobilised and trained personnel in experienced frontline units to prepare them”.

 
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Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a Poland-based group that tracks the war, said that given Ukraine had less manpower than Russia, better training and better troops would allow it to sustain the fight for longer. “Ukraine can’t adopt the Russian way of war, which focuses on attrition, as Moscow will be able to outspend Kyiv in almost every aspect, from military production to being able to sustain higher losses,” he said. In the latest bid to reboot the process and attract younger, more motivated and better-educated recruits, Ukraine’s defence ministry has said volunteers would not necessarily serve in the trenches but in a role of their choice that matched their skills. One aim is to lure more IT professionals for units operating drones and other high-tech weaponry. Three people with just such a specialism told the Financial Times they would consider the offer if they could ensure they would have roles as drone operators or use their expertise in cyber warfare or similar roles.

https://www.ft.com/content/25711074-5e1a-494a-9d7c-ccb535f671d5

The Azov regiment, one of Ukraine’s best fighting forces, has placed advertisements on the work.ua recruitment site for infantry, drone operators, engineers, medics, drivers, cooks and welders. Natalia Kalmykova, deputy defence minister, this week signed agreements with thelobbyx.com, a recruitment platform that has been used by the army, to assist soldiers in relocating to roles better fitted to their skills. “The project will allow a person to choose a specific unit in a specific position where his/her civilian experience will be most useful,” Kalmykova said in a statement. Similar agreements with other recruitment companies are being drawn up. Soldiers who spend a full month on the front lines are being paid more than $3,000 a month — a high salary in Ukraine, where average pay is less than $500 a month, and much more than the $650 paid for troops in support roles in the rear. Kalmykova told Ukrainian TV earlier this month that forced conscription would continue but be phased out when “enough” soldiers had joined up voluntarily. Vitaly Markiv, a frontline commanding officer, said: “We need to move away from the Soviet system of forced conscription where people are driven into roles where they can’t realise their potential.” He added: “We should put emphasis not on quantity, but on quality and brains in what is . . . like the battle of David vs Goliath.”
 
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"Explosion at the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant, one of the most important in the production of engines.Today, they produced military wheeled and tracked vehicles, as well as diesel engines and components for them, which are installed on Russian tanks and self-propelled gunsIn 2011, Uralvagonzavod became the owner of 80% of the shares.But the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has already said that the transformer caught fire, but it doesn’t look like an explosion - it exploded too powerfully."

 
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Manpower becomes Ukraine’s latest challenge as it digs in for a long war​

Kyiv seeks to persuade younger recruits with better endurance and higher skills to join up



Of the four men who lined up at an army recruitment centre in Kyiv one morning this month, only one was there voluntarily. Oleksandr, a 34-year-old used-car dealer, said he could no longer watch from the sidelines after five acquaintances were killed in Europe’s biggest war since 1945. He built up a financial cushion for his wife and newborn child before deciding to fight. “It’s time,” he said.



The others had received mobilisation notices. Two said medical conditions had previously prevented them from serving: one cited brain damage from a freak accident, the other metal plates in his spine. The fourth — Yevhen, a 42-year-old sales manager with no military experience — said: “I’m not going to hide, but I honestly don’t know what I can contribute.” The meagre queue was a far cry from the thousands of volunteers who lined up at recruitment centres following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. It underscored the challenge facing Ukraine, with a population of less than 40mn, nearly two years into a war against an enemy with more than three times the number of people: how to maintain a flow of recruits into the armed forces without stirring social unrest and how to build capacity to enable Kyiv to regain the battlefield initiative.


General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s top military commander, told The Economist earlier this month that to break the “stalemate” — a term that earned him a rebuke from the government — he needed not just new capabilities in artillery, mine clearance and electronic warfare but “to build up our reserves”.


However, our capacity to train reserves on our own territory is also limited,” Zaluzhnyi wrote separately in an opinion article. “We cannot easily spare soldiers who are deployed to the front, [and] Russia can strike training centres. And there are gaps in our legislation that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities.” Selective conscription has continued since February 2022 but has lost steam as the grim reality of a long, gruelling war sets in. According to a BBC investigation, nearly 20,000 Ukrainian men evaded call-up notices either by slipping out of the country in defiance of an exit ban or fraudulently acquiring permission to leave. In August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired all the country’s regional army recruitment chiefs over the issuance of medical exemptions in return for bribes. Ukrainian officials and western analysts say it is not just a question of numbers but of fitness, capability and skills. The average age of Ukrainians at the front and those trained by western allies has been 30-40, rather than more usual 18-24, said Jack Watling, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think-tank. The issue was not troop quantity but the “quality and capacity to command operations at scale”, he said.

Mobilisation early last year disproportionately pulled in older men with military experience, but younger men with more endurance and skills were now needed, he added.



Ukraine needs infantry in top physical shape,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The physical requirements for the infantry are demanding and have increased as this conflict has settled into small-scale infantry engagement fought on foot in trench systems.” Ukraine keeps its troop and casualty numbers secret. Experts and local officials have suggested it had 1mn men and women under arms last year, including territorial defence, secret services and border guards — double the pre-February 2022 number. US officials estimate that about 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and up to 120,000 injured, compared with about 200,000 Russian dead. Kyiv has put Russia’s death toll at more than 300,000.



To help fill the ranks, Ukrainian officials have set up roadside checkpoints to seek men evading the draft. If they are deemed fit, they are whisked off to draft offices. Online videos of recruitment officers picking men off the streets and forcing them into minivans have gone viral. Zaluzhnyi said efforts were under way to set up a unified register of draftees. He also revealed a “combat internship” concept, which involves “placing newly mobilised and trained personnel in experienced frontline units to prepare them”.

See the story I linked above. Russia is delivering 20,000-25,000 recruits per month. The quality and desire to serve isn't great, but they are bodies, and that's how Russia is keeping Ukraine form counter attacking effectively. Throwing thousands of expendable bodies into the front.
 
Not linking because it was in my paper copy of The Economist this week, but there is increasing worry about Ukraine falling behind in electronic warfare. Russia is now putting twice the number of drones into the front lines as Ukraine is, and their counter measures are having a significant effect Ukrainian effectiveness. Thousands of drones are being lost to jamming, and even high end weapons like HIMARs, JDAMS, and guided 155 mm shells are being jammed. The West, particularly the US, are not willing to send top end EW stuff because anything lost will quickly be sent to China as part of the debt Russia owes Xi. And, much like air defenses, Russia is stripping even region of their country of EW assets to plug into Ukraine. They simply have more assets to move in while the Ukrainians attempt to build an infrastructure from scratch to provide EW capabilities.
 
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