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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

Huge update.



Night Summary (15.12.2023 05.25 AM RO/UA time):

1. #Moldova and #Ukraine in the #EU:

This is the most viable and realistic option by which Romania and the Republic of Moldova can be united in values, principles, ideals, laws, rules and coexistence in a common space, no matter how the cardboard unionists (not those who really believe in union and whose opinion I respect) fight with their heads on the ground now.

This is great news. I've also read a diagonal of the European Commission's report on Moldova and the one on Ukraine and to put it in plastic: not great, not terrible. Both countries face problems in the negotiating chapters, mainly due to decades of political domination that has been in charge in the Kremlin. In short: Russia has done absolutely everything in its power since the fall of the USSR to keep these two European states out of the family to which they rightfully belong.

However, the report notes progress in both countries, highlighting the progress made by Ukraine despite the Russian invasion, which is remarkable, but also in the case of Moldova, which has experienced several attempts at destabilisation by the Kremlin, which the Commission notes and does not ignore.

So there is a long way to go. Still, both countries are on the proverbial right track and with the help of Romania in the case of Moldova, Romania, France, Germany and Poland in the case of Ukraine, both countries have made progress. They will continue to do so, as long as Russia does not advance in Ukraine, endangering even the stability of the Republic of Moldova and Romania.

Congratulations to @sandumaiamd , @ZelenskyyUa , the governments of the two countries and civil society, which is specifically mentioned by the European Commission as a pillar of stability and progress.

2. Situation on the Front:

2.1 #Kupyansk axis: no significant change since yesterday's summary.

2.2 #Bakhmut: fierce fighting is going on in the Andriivka area, but the Russians are losing the initiative there as well, because it seems that the Ukrainians have achieved their goal of fortifying and defending their positions.

2.3 #Avdiivka: The number of Russian attacks continues to be high, but as has been known for weeks now, these attacks are no longer composed of columns of armour, but rather of small groups of infantry, which are simply destroyed by the Ukrainians. Several indicators give me the impression that the Russians have reached their culmination in the Avdiivka area, but I cannot say for certain.

2.4 #Herson-#Krynky: War criminal Vladimir #Putin, in yesterday's press conference had a remark about this bridgehead saying "I know about it, but I gave orders to the Russian army to leave them alone, they don't bother us at all". This is false on several counts: the Krynky is close to the M14, the main GLOC used by the Russians on the eastern bank of the #Dnieper, and a month ago, thanks to Ukrainian artillery, the actions of Ukrainian marine brigades and FPV drones, the Russians were forced to withdraw their lines several dozen kilometres back.

All of these facts indicate to me that Putin is not only lying, but also worried about this beachhead. Someone wrote to me yesterday in the comments that the 300 or so Ukrainians vs almost 12,000 Russians massed in that area reminds me of the battle of Thermopylae. I can say that this is an inspired historical parallel, at least in terms of heroism and resilience.

3. International Aid:

If yesterday I was talking about the Northern Alliance (not the one in Afghanistan) simply giving a strong signal that they will as much as possible make up for the lack of US aid that is currently lagging, today I will also mention that last week:

- The #Netherlands: announced 2.5 billion in aid for 2024;

- #Germany: announced last month an increase from 4 billion in military assistance to 8 billion for Ukraine in 2024;

- US: the #US #Senate voted on the US defence budget, a record budget of over $880 billion, in which there is an aid package for Ukraine worth just $300 million. The $60 billion package is still disputed, and congressional Republicans through the voice of Speaker Mike #Johnson are showing signs they won't pass it this year. Hopefully I'm wrong, because Ukraine, Europe and the world needs the US to continue to be the world's security leader.

- EU: #Hungary has blocked its €50bn for Ukraine after the other 26 member states agreed to financial aid. Viktor #Orban, Putin's puppet, even got his concession on the 10 billion the EU blocked from giving Hungary based on its failure to comply with EU legal rules. The next discussion on the aid package will take place in January 2024.

- EU: there are talks to freeze €200bn of Russian assets in Europe and use them to support Ukraine in 2024, but this scenario is still under consideration.

4. Another Russian drone has hit Romanian territory:

During the day yesterday, a Russian Shahed-136 drone in the area of Grindu locality. It is at least the 4th drone to fall on Romanian territory. On the map we have circled the urban concentrations in #Romania, #Galati and #Braila, 7 km and 22 km respectively from the impact of the drone which caused a 1.5 m crater deep.

The Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has summoned the Ambassador of the Russian terrorist federation, Valery Kuzmin, and "strongly condemned" this action. #NATO spokesman Dylan White said the attack was not intentional, but NATO is monitoring the situation.

----
What can I say after such a day?

- Hungary, after blocking financial aid to Ukraine, where, some may have forgotten: innocent people are dying, Ukraine's economy has been hit hard by Russia's invasion, the people need support and so does the Ukrainian military, from my perspective has nothing to do with the founding values and principles of the European Union. Especially in this security crisis situation. Hungary from my perspective should no longer have the right to vote in the EU (yes, I know, for what I say to happen it would mean changing the treaty that underpins the EU) and I dare say - although I will upset the Hungarians in urban areas (Budapest in particular) who really are and feel European: Hungary no longer belongs in the European Union.

- I am overjoyed for the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine about the EU's decision to start negotiations for accession to the European Union. It is a strong signal, but we must be aware that Russia is not sleeping and will do everything possible, through propaganda, to Russian-funded parties in European states, to gain as much power as possible within the Union in the European Parliament elections in June 2024, but also to destabilise each country internally.

- The war in Ukraine is also the 'War of the Volunteers', because Ukraine relies not only on the help of states, but also on the help of people who get involved and help a victim country. This war has raised the level of involvement of many millions of people around the world, and perhaps that is the only good thing this war has brought: it has awakened more and more of us from our numbness and we have realised that the relatively peaceful world we have lived in until recently can only be defended by fighting for it every day. I hope that this "awakening" and strong involvement will continue, because 2024 is a crucial year, also in view of the elections in extremely many countries, but also because I see it as a year that has brought us to a fork in human history. I can only hope that your involvement will continue, whether at home through civic action or by helping civilians or those fighting in Ukraine. For the good of us all.

Let us continue! Together!

Congratulations #Moldova! Congratulations Ukraine! Glory to heroes everywhere!

#SlavaUkraini!
 
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I asked someone a few pages ago what the plan is if we run low on Ukrainians.
No response.
Anyone have any ideas?


Soldiers in Ukraine are veering increasingly older as the country grapples with a shortage of soldiers after roughly 20 months of brutal fighting against Russia.

As countless casualties have hampered Ukraine's forces, the average age of a soldier in the country is currently around 43 years old, Time magazine reported last week.

That average is up by nearly 10 years from March 2022, one month after the war began, when the average age of a Ukrainian soldier was between 30 and 35 years old, according to FT.

"They're grown men now, and they aren't that healthy to begin with," a close aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Time. "This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia."


A longtime member of Zelenskyy's team told Time the president feels betrayed by Ukraine's Western allies who he sees as having only given the country what it needs to survive the war but not beat Russia for good.

As American lawmakers squabble over whether to continue funding Ukraine, however, the country's personnel problems may be more dire than a lack of equipment.

Even if the US were to provide Ukraine with all the weapons it promised, a Zelenskyy aide told Time, Ukraine simply doesn't "have the men to use them."

When the war first began in February 2022, Ukrainian recruits were plentiful; people volunteered in droves to defend their land from Russian invaders, while a mass mobilization effort that forbade nearly all men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country bolstered troop numbers early-on.

But recruitment is significantly down these days, Time reported, and the country is struggling to keep combat-age men from fleeing.

In August, Zelenskyy fired the head of the draft offices in every region of the country amid concerns of conscription corruption. But the move backfired, a Ukrainian senior military officer told Time, and slowed recruitment efforts to an effective stop
.
 
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I asked someone a few pages ago what the plan is if we run low on Ukrainians.
No response.
Anyone have any ideas?


Soldiers in Ukraine are veering increasingly older as the country grapples with a shortage of soldiers after roughly 20 months of brutal fighting against Russia.

As countless casualties have hampered Ukraine's forces, the average age of a soldier in the country is currently around 43 years old, Time magazine reported last week.

That average is up by nearly 10 years from March 2022, one month after the war began, when the average age of a Ukrainian soldier was between 30 and 35 years old, according to FT.

"They're grown men now, and they aren't that healthy to begin with," a close aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Time. "This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia."


A longtime member of Zelenskyy's team told Time the president feels betrayed by Ukraine's Western allies who he sees as having only given the country what it needs to survive the war but not beat Russia for good.

As American lawmakers squabble over whether to continue funding Ukraine, however, the country's personnel problems may be more dire than a lack of equipment.

Even if the US were to provide Ukraine with all the weapons it promised, a Zelenskyy aide told Time, Ukraine simply doesn't "have the men to use them."

When the war first began in February 2022, Ukrainian recruits were plentiful; people volunteered in droves to defend their land from Russian invaders, while a mass mobilization effort that forbade nearly all men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country bolstered troop numbers early-on.

But recruitment is significantly down these days, Time reported, and the country is struggling to keep combat-age men from fleeing.

In August, Zelenskyy fired the head of the draft offices in every region of the country amid concerns of conscription corruption. But the move backfired, a Ukrainian senior military officer told Time, and slowed recruitment efforts to an effective stop
.

Hard to understand. Country once had 44 million, at least 7 million were displaced/fled in early months. Mostly women and children but men too. That leaves roughly 37 million and 18-20 million males. Say 200-250K casualties up to 500K. What are the other 17.5 million to 19.5 million men doing? Let’s say 35% are under 18 or over 60. Still leaves 11.375-12.675 million males.

Does Ukraine even have 1 million service members right now?
 
Hard to understand. Country once had 44 million

Looks like around 4 million of those would have been in Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk.


, at least 7 million were displaced/fled in early months. Mostly women and children but men too. That leaves roughly 37 million and 18-20 million males. Say 200-250K casualties up to 500K. What are the other 17.5 million to 19.5 million men doing? Let’s say 35% are under 18 or over 60. Still leaves 11.375-12.675 million males.

Does Ukraine even have 1 million service members right now?
Ukraine population was also in decline, from over 50 million in the late 90s.

Ukraine is also one of the oldest countries in the world with one in four people over the age of 60.
 
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GBY57cmWgAIP4eY
 
Regarding the Ukrainian troops/available fighters...
GET THEM AIRPOWER

From my "outside looking in" vantage point, my biggest complaint would be the West has been too slow in that regard.

I didn't realize Ukraine is only mobilizing those over 27 years old:


This is true and 35 is very optimistic lower threshold. In some brigades average age of soldiers is 50+ years.

Now is sharply put a question about mobilization of more young people, because of men over 45 y.o., having many health problems (and trench life doesn't add health to them) can't be effective infantrymen, especially in assault actions.

Currently you can be mobilized from 27 y.o. All youngers can be enlisted only by own free-will as contract servicemen. But indeed most people, who are mobilized are older than 40-45 years. Recently a law was passed, reducing the lower age of mobilisation from 27 to 25 years, but president didn't sign it yet

On other hand example of 3rd assault brigade and Azov brigade, having own recruitment system, shows most of their soldiers are young and middle-age people, having good motivation and much better physical conditions. This was one of factors of 3rd brigade effectiveness in offensive. But one brigade can't tow whole front
 
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Disturbing. This has been all over X this morning so I finally decided to post it.

The police investigating the incident said the deputy was alive and has been resuscitated by medics. It is not known how he obtained the grenades.

Ukrainian politician Oleksii Honcharenko identified the man seen in the video as Serhiy Batrin, a deputy from the Servant of the People party. According to Honcharenko’s Telegram update the council had met to discuss its 2024 budget.



'Servant of the People' was Zelensky's TV show. This guy was from his party.
 
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Before any one suggests we send our own young men and women into this shit show, maybe the Ukrainians should actually step up. It is there country after all.
 
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