Biden is reportedly pivoting away from expelling Russia from Ukraine
President Joe Biden has long said he will support Ukraine in its goal of expelling Russia from its territory for
“as long as it takes.” But a
Politico report indicates that the Biden administration is quietly shifting away from backing Ukraine’s bid for total victory. Instead, the White House is now thinking about how to best position Ukraine for negotiations that are likely to lead to territorial concessions. The news underscores the failure of
Ukraine’s widely watched counteroffensive and reflects concern about dwindling resources of both Ukraine and its allies to oust a heavily dug-in Russia.
Citing Biden administration officials and a European diplomat, Politico reports that the U.S. and Europe are discussing “the redeployment of Kyiv’s forces away from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s mostly failed counteroffensive into a stronger defensive position against Russian forces in the east.” That includes helping Ukraine fortify certain borders and positions, and helping strengthen the country’s defense industry. “The only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,” a White House spokesperson said, and the U.S. wants “Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes.” The spokesperson told Politico that talks haven’t been planned yet, and publicly the Biden administration insists that its support for Ukraine’s goal — the total expulsion of Russia — remains unchanged. But Biden hinted at cooling support in December, when
he said the U.S. will support Ukraine “as long as we can” instead of the typical “as long as it takes.” It appears that the war could be entering a new phase, and we’re most likely in the early stages of a hugely consequential pivot by the Biden administration.
After Ukraine kicked off its widely anticipated counteroffensive over the summer, there were high hopes that its forces would be able to regain large swaths of territory. But Ukraine
failed to win backmuch territory at all, and Russia has even
wrested back some of the little land that Ukraine had fought hard to secure. Kyiv lacked the manpower, air power and financial resources to prevail against a far, far more powerful country that has assumed a defensive posture on its own territory. Russia remains in control of about 20% of Ukraine’s land, and it’s hard to see that changing any time soon.
In a sign of how poorly the counteroffensive was faring even in its first few months, in August the chief of staff to the NATO secretary-general
floatedthe idea of territorial concessions to Russia as part of the solution to the war. At the time, he was slammed by Ukrainians and European diplomats for deviating from the Western position on the war, but it most likely reflected a growing sense of resignation about Ukraine’s capacity to defeat Russia on the battlefield. That resignation has since been echoed by Ukraine’s military commander in chief, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, who
told The Economist in November that the countries had reached a “stalemate” and that there “will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.” (Zelenskyy
dismissed the characterization of a “stalemate.”)
We're entering a new phase in the war, and negotiations are on the horizon.
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