This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
What miserable conditions to fight a war in. Basically a repeat of 1942
Hoping Ukraine has the strength for a surprise winter offensive though it seems the odds are against that. I was thinking that Russia may not be supporting their troops well in these harsh conditions which may make them weaker.
From everything I've seen Ukraine simply doesn't have the manpower to expend for that. They're trying to ramp up numbers which points to being on the defensive till the spring/summer.
Ukraine only conscripts men 27 and older? Pretty shocked by that....
The parliament isn't acting like they are in a life and death struggle here IMO. 18 months seems way to short a term of enlistment as well.
Ukraine's parliament has refused to consider a conscription bill that proposes a crackdown on draft dodgers.
MPs have criticised certain punishment measures included in the bill as unconstitutional.
Some have also suggested reducing the length of military service proposed in the bill from 36 to 18 months.
The bill was drafted in a bid to conscript more people, as Kyiv faces problems on the battlefield after nearly two years of war with Russia.
It also included plans to lower the age at which men can be conscripted into the armed forces from 27 to 25.
Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 450,000-500,000 extra soldiers were needed to fight Russia's invasion.
But some clauses in the bill have caused outrage, such as limiting draft dodgers' rights to own property and freely use their personal money.
The bill would also allow Ukrainians to be summoned electronically to join the armed forces. At the start of the war, tens of thousands of men volunteered to fight but almost two years on it is getting harder to convince anyone to join up.
In December, Ukrainians living abroad were told they could be asked to report for military service. Defence Minister Rustem Umerov described this as an invitation and the ministry later clarified that it did not imply any sanctions against those who refused to come back.
Mr Zelensky said achieving the increased number of troops was a "sensitive" and costly issue.
This all comes as Kyiv's recent counter-offensive seems to have stalled and provisions of military aid have also taken a knock in recent months. US Republicans blocked a $61bn (€55bn; £48bn) military package and Hungary stopped an EU financial deal worth €50bn ($55bn; £43bn).
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday that negotiations over further US assistance had "ground to a halt" as the government continues to negotiate its budget.
Mr Zelensky is currently on a tour of the Baltic states - and is currently in Latvia - to bolster further support including urging Western allies to provide more air defence weapons.
Speaking earlier in Tallinn, Estonia, he warned about the dangers of Western hesitation. He said: "Sometimes the insecurity of partners regarding financial and military aid to Ukraine only increases Russia's courage and strength."
His remarks came as a new US report warned that more than $1bn (£785m) worth of US military aid given to Ukraine since February 2022 was not properly tracked.
The findings by the Pentagon's inspector general said US officials in Washington DC and Europe had failed to properly account for thousands of weapons, including stringer launchers and air defence missiles. It raises concerns that some of the $1.69bn in military aid supplied to Ukraine could have been misappropriated.
But in a letter responding to the report, Col Garrett W Trott of the US military's European Command, emphasised that the report found "no evidence of unauthorised or illicit transfer of EEUM [Enhanced End Use Monitoring] defence articles provided to Ukraine".
And the report itself conceded that it was "beyond the scope" of its inquiry to determine whether any arms had been misappropriated.
www.bbc.com
The parliament isn't acting like they are in a life and death struggle here IMO. 18 months seems way to short a term of enlistment as well.
Ukraine's parliament has refused to consider a conscription bill that proposes a crackdown on draft dodgers.
MPs have criticised certain punishment measures included in the bill as unconstitutional.
Some have also suggested reducing the length of military service proposed in the bill from 36 to 18 months.
The bill was drafted in a bid to conscript more people, as Kyiv faces problems on the battlefield after nearly two years of war with Russia.
It also included plans to lower the age at which men can be conscripted into the armed forces from 27 to 25.
Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 450,000-500,000 extra soldiers were needed to fight Russia's invasion.
But some clauses in the bill have caused outrage, such as limiting draft dodgers' rights to own property and freely use their personal money.
The bill would also allow Ukrainians to be summoned electronically to join the armed forces. At the start of the war, tens of thousands of men volunteered to fight but almost two years on it is getting harder to convince anyone to join up.
In December, Ukrainians living abroad were told they could be asked to report for military service. Defence Minister Rustem Umerov described this as an invitation and the ministry later clarified that it did not imply any sanctions against those who refused to come back.
Mr Zelensky said achieving the increased number of troops was a "sensitive" and costly issue.
This all comes as Kyiv's recent counter-offensive seems to have stalled and provisions of military aid have also taken a knock in recent months. US Republicans blocked a $61bn (€55bn; £48bn) military package and Hungary stopped an EU financial deal worth €50bn ($55bn; £43bn).
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday that negotiations over further US assistance had "ground to a halt" as the government continues to negotiate its budget.
Mr Zelensky is currently on a tour of the Baltic states - and is currently in Latvia - to bolster further support including urging Western allies to provide more air defence weapons.
Speaking earlier in Tallinn, Estonia, he warned about the dangers of Western hesitation. He said: "Sometimes the insecurity of partners regarding financial and military aid to Ukraine only increases Russia's courage and strength."
His remarks came as a new US report warned that more than $1bn (£785m) worth of US military aid given to Ukraine since February 2022 was not properly tracked.
The findings by the Pentagon's inspector general said US officials in Washington DC and Europe had failed to properly account for thousands of weapons, including stringer launchers and air defence missiles. It raises concerns that some of the $1.69bn in military aid supplied to Ukraine could have been misappropriated.
But in a letter responding to the report, Col Garrett W Trott of the US military's European Command, emphasised that the report found "no evidence of unauthorised or illicit transfer of EEUM [Enhanced End Use Monitoring] defence articles provided to Ukraine".
And the report itself conceded that it was "beyond the scope" of its inquiry to determine whether any arms had been misappropriated.
Ukraine war: MPs reject bid to crack down on draft dodgers
They say some of the punishments proposed in President Zelensky's bill are unconstitutional.
www.bbc.com
Missile blitz, jet drones, night camouflage: Kyiv warns how Russia could overwhelm air defenses
Kyiv, UkraineCNN —In the snow-filled skies above Ukraine, a deadly game is playing out.
Russia began the new year with a barrage of air attacks, including the heaviest night of missile strikes since the war began, as Ukraine battles to meet an evolving threat with its limited supply of Western defense systems.
Russia’s January attacks have employed the full gamut of its aerial arsenal: cruise missiles, ballistic missiles from near the Russian-Ukrainian border, hypersonic missiles and slower drones, all sometimes used to hit the same target, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told CNN in Kyiv.
International analysts say the onslaught of Russian missiles, stockpiled for months, aims to overwhelm Ukraine’s limited missile defense.
This approach has had some success. According to the Ukrainian authorities, Ukraine only managed to shoot down 18 of the 51 missiles fired at the country on January 8.
New tactics have also come into play.
Some changes are simple: Russia has started painting its Iranian-made drones black, camouflaging them against the night sky.
Others are more sophisticated: The Russians have moved the engine exhausts on some drones from the rear to the front, in an effort to confuse anti-air batteries using thermal sights, members of one Ukrainian unit told CNN.
With Ukrainian media reports of jet-powered drones replacing Russia’s slower propeller-powered models, officials have acknowledged it’s a threat that’s on their radar.
Speaking on national TV, Ukrainian air force command spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said a jet-powered version of the Iranian Shahed drones favored by Moscow would function “like a mini cruise missile.”
They are likely to have a smaller payload but much faster cruising speeds, perhaps more than 500 kilometers per hour (311 miles per hour), he said, making them harder to shoot down. Ukrainian officials haven’t yet confirmed if these drones have been used in Ukraine.
Every shoot-down is a victory
In a frozen field outside Kyiv, soldiers conducted drills with a mobile air defense truck, ready to fire within minutes of pulling up.Their Soviet-designed heavy machine gun is unsophisticated, but twinned with a thermal sight and a tablet which shows the image from that sight – two centuries of technology colliding on one flatbed truck – it can be effective against drones, the squad commander, Sgt. Maj. Vitaliy Yasinsky of Ukraine’s Separate Presidential Brigade, told CNN.
“They used to fly in a single trajectory, but now they zigzag. A drone can fly, then circle, hover, go down completely, then rise about half a kilometer, then fly sharply down. They are now very maneuverable and must be seen and destroyed,” Yasinsky said of the Iranian Shaheds.
On cloudy nights, the defenders can be forced to use their ears more than their eyes to aim, listening out for the tell-tale whine of the Shahed’s motor engine.
But it’s small, mobile units like Yasinsky’s that Ukraine is counting on to protect civilians and key infrastructure, especially from the slow-flying drones.
Sited within a network of advanced Western missile defense systems, like the American Patriot or German IRIS-T batteries - best suited to deal with the fastest Russian missiles – these small teams provide cheaper, more plentiful muscle to the defense of Ukraine’s skies.
Ukrainian air defense troops told CNN they had unboxed crates of Western-donated hand-held Stinger anti-air missiles that dated from the Afghan mujahideen’s war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, decades older than some of the soldiers.
But they’re still grateful for the weapons.
In videos of Ukrainian air defense units downing drones or missiles, the joy in the soldiers’ voices is almost child-like.
Every hit likely saves Ukrainian lives or infrastructure and helps to chip away at Russia’s resources.
In January, US officials revealed Russia’s use of North Korean ballistic missiles in attacks on Ukrainian cities, likely a sign of the pressure on Moscow’s stockpiles and domestic production of long-range weaponry.
Ukrainian authorities are still analyzing debris from the latest strikes to discern the missiles’ origin.
Defenses stretched to the limit
The latest string of Russian attacks was “very well planned,” Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of international security programs at the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center think tank, told CNN.The deadly strikes were preceded by flocks of drones and individual missiles along different routes, pawns sacrificed to map Ukrainian defenses and weak spots, he said.
“It is defense industry facilities that are targeted now. And though it is not officially admitted, a substantial share of these missiles reached their targets,” he said, also noting that the effectiveness of each interceptor missile fired at incoming Russian projectiles is high.
The Ukrainian air defense is working “at the edge of its capacity,” Melnyk said, often hitting more than 70% of its targets and sometimes all of them.
Stopping more missiles would require more interceptor missile batteries, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday his country is “sorely lacking.” Ukraine is currently unable to produce modern air defense systems with its partners, he said.
But in order to stem the tide of Russian fire, Ukraine needs to target Moscow’s batteries across the border – a tough challenge, given Kyiv’s limited access to long-range missiles or artillery systems of its own.
“Russia is learning its lessons,” Melnyk said, sending missiles to where it knew they could not be intercepted.
Civilian deaths
Podolyak, the Ukrainian presidential adviser, told CNN he believed a “genocidal component” had been added to Russia’s air attacks compared with last winter. In his opinion, civilian casualties are now a priority in Russian attacks on large cities, he said. Russia has repeatedly denied targeting civilians.Images of Kyiv commuters crowded into the city’s subway system during the early January air raids evoked painful memories of last winter’s onslaught by Russia from the air.
A small number of Ukrainians have died in January’s attacks, but the country is still smarting from the 33 people killed in Kyiv on December 29 in strikes that destroyed 100 houses and 45 high-rise buildings, according to Ukraine’s president.
In response, Zelensky vowed to “bring the war” back to Russia.
Despite the joy in blunting Russia’s attacks in the air when his comrades score hits, “Smeta,” a soldier in an air defense unit outside Kyiv, still feels the pain of each missile they can’t bring down to earth.
“The most painful thing is that they are hitting civilians, houses, kindergartens,” he told CNN. “This is not in line with the customs of war and not in line with human morality. It is immoral.”
Things appear to be slowing down.
Somehow though Russia manages to kill off 800 troops a day.
If the numbers are to be believed.
The numbers provided by the Kyiv Independent and the reality on the ground haven't really matched up. I have no doubt the Russians have taken devastating losses but they're probably being exaggerated a bit....
There is probably grade inflation. But, they listed 400 troops the other day, don’t just throw an 800 up every day. What is the correct number? No idea.
Agree.
Maybe these numbers are accurate. The thing we really don't have a handle on is corresponding Ukrainian losses. Without those it's impossible to get a accurate picture.
Pretty tight lid on that which is understandable.
The numbers are pretty accurate, at least according to US intelligence.
Ukraine has described the number they use as "permanent removal from battlefield due to death or maiming" which they claim to have verified using a combo of battlefield, hospital, and payroll reports. Obviously with Russia, it's not surprising if they are forcing crippled troops back to the line, or hiding deaths by keeping them on official rosters, etc., either.
Since this is a decoy, I guess it did its job.
The ADM-160 MALD is an air-launched, expendable decoy missile developed by the United States. It uses gradient-index optics to create a radar cross section that simulates allies' airplane, in order to stimulate, confuse, and degrade the capability of missile defense systems. Wikipedia
The ADM-160 MALD is an air-launched, expendable decoy missile developed by the United States. It uses gradient-index optics to create a radar cross section that simulates allies' airplane, in order to stimulate, confuse, and degrade the capability of missile defense systems. Wikipedia
So, how much intel do we all think that Russia is giving to Iran, which is passing it along to the Houthis?
Ukraine though major ag areas that look like IA/IL/ND has far fewer roads. You can't take tanks/heavy vehicles off roads making them easier targets. This winter will be about drones/arty and digging in.
Ukraine understands very well the decimation of such a war (WW1/WW2 and modern combined). There are a lot of me unemployed or barely employed. They know better than to devastate the young male population. This is one of the things they get right. Very corrupt country. Great people hard to get to know. Americans really struggle to understand the culture. Right now the war is about staying safe from drones and arty.Ukraine only conscripts men 27 and older? Pretty shocked by that....
The parliament isn't acting like they are in a life and death struggle here IMO. 18 months seems way to short a term of enlistment as well.
Ukraine's parliament has refused to consider a conscription bill that proposes a crackdown on draft dodgers.
MPs have criticised certain punishment measures included in the bill as unconstitutional.
Some have also suggested reducing the length of military service proposed in the bill from 36 to 18 months.
The bill was drafted in a bid to conscript more people, as Kyiv faces problems on the battlefield after nearly two years of war with Russia.
It also included plans to lower the age at which men can be conscripted into the armed forces from 27 to 25.
Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 450,000-500,000 extra soldiers were needed to fight Russia's invasion.
But some clauses in the bill have caused outrage, such as limiting draft dodgers' rights to own property and freely use their personal money.
The bill would also allow Ukrainians to be summoned electronically to join the armed forces. At the start of the war, tens of thousands of men volunteered to fight but almost two years on it is getting harder to convince anyone to join up.
In December, Ukrainians living abroad were told they could be asked to report for military service. Defence Minister Rustem Umerov described this as an invitation and the ministry later clarified that it did not imply any sanctions against those who refused to come back.
Mr Zelensky said achieving the increased number of troops was a "sensitive" and costly issue.
This all comes as Kyiv's recent counter-offensive seems to have stalled and provisions of military aid have also taken a knock in recent months. US Republicans blocked a $61bn (€55bn; £48bn) military package and Hungary stopped an EU financial deal worth €50bn ($55bn; £43bn).
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday that negotiations over further US assistance had "ground to a halt" as the government continues to negotiate its budget.
Mr Zelensky is currently on a tour of the Baltic states - and is currently in Latvia - to bolster further support including urging Western allies to provide more air defence weapons.
Speaking earlier in Tallinn, Estonia, he warned about the dangers of Western hesitation. He said: "Sometimes the insecurity of partners regarding financial and military aid to Ukraine only increases Russia's courage and strength."
His remarks came as a new US report warned that more than $1bn (£785m) worth of US military aid given to Ukraine since February 2022 was not properly tracked.
The findings by the Pentagon's inspector general said US officials in Washington DC and Europe had failed to properly account for thousands of weapons, including stringer launchers and air defence missiles. It raises concerns that some of the $1.69bn in military aid supplied to Ukraine could have been misappropriated.
But in a letter responding to the report, Col Garrett W Trott of the US military's European Command, emphasised that the report found "no evidence of unauthorised or illicit transfer of EEUM [Enhanced End Use Monitoring] defence articles provided to Ukraine".
And the report itself conceded that it was "beyond the scope" of its inquiry to determine whether any arms had been misappropriated.
Ukraine war: MPs reject bid to crack down on draft dodgers
They say some of the punishments proposed in President Zelensky's bill are unconstitutional.
Just seems weird to restrict your available manpower pool like this when the Army is facing a manpower shortage.
Americans think in terms of months/ at most a couple of years. Russians/Ukrainians think in decades. Ukraine has suffered from unbelievable conditions throughout more modern history )1900 on compared to most cultures. If you are American, you can't understand the culture. Also, motherhood is highly revered there. You son's dying on the battlefield is unacceptable....so far.
Well motherhood over there is not so revered that they don't have a declining birth rate that has been below the US since 1990.
The problem isn't women. Male longevity dropped down into the 50s due to alcoholism and poor medical care after the collapse (and there were several). Able-bodied men not drunk left leaving women to raise and provide for kids. It's why human trafficking is so high in Ukraine (females) and German/American older men travel there a lot. There are about 85 men there for each female. Some of my best friends are Ukrainian. I know the country well. It's a very dismal country and it's hard to really trust anyone. If you have a real Ukrainian friend, you have a very good friend that will do about anything for you.
Unfortunately, Russian fodder but less so than Abrams. Sorry but that video is not right on the front line or they would be destroyed going down a road like that. Feels good. Not real.
