Draft-dodging plagues Ukraine as Kyiv faces acute soldier shortage
An early burst of patriotic fervor saw draft centers swamped with volunteers, but that has waned with Vladimir Putin’s war in its third year.
KYIV — The 28-year-old is one of thousands of young Ukrainian men keeping their heads down, dodging conscription and avoiding registering their details as required. Artem is cautious when he ventures out, and avoids places like metro stations where police mount document checks looking for draft-dodgers.
“Some of my friends are more paranoid — they never go out,” he says.
Artem has the air of a fugitive, with his baseball cap pulled down firmly and shielding his eyes even on an overcast day. Before entering the coffee house in downtown Kyiv to meet with POLITICO he gazes up and down the street, and once seated talks in a low voice so as not to be overheard.
When Russia invaded their country two years ago, young and old Ukrainians swamped recruitment centers to volunteer. Some were frustrated not to be drafted immediately, and complained loudly. The Ukrainian military couldn’t take everyone owing to a lack of resources and equipment, but managed to muster new units, expand established ones and improvise to halt Russian armor bearing down on Kyiv.
But that early burst of patriotic fervor has waned with the war now in its third year, the body bags filling, and men returning home injured and disfigured.
Pessimism about the future of the conflict is also taking hold, with ever more people questioning whether Ukraine is capable of defeating Moscow's forces.
'Sensitive' issue
Ukraine needs to draft many more men for a battlefield that is chewing up bodies, but authorities are conflicted over whether to cajole or coerce, and fear the political fallout if they choose the latter. Since the Russian invasion two years ago around 9,000 draft-evasion proceedings have been opened, according to the Ukrainian interior ministry, but that's just scratching the surface of the draft-dodging and the evasion of registration so enlistment notices can't be issued.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has
acknowledged that the issue is “sensitive.” Even in the weeks leading up to Russia's February 2022 invasion, he resisted calls from opposition lawmakers in Kyiv to announce a general call-up.
The most immediate need now is to enlist more soldiers that can be deployed along the 1,000-kilometer front line ahead of an expected major Russian push toward either Kharkiv in the northeast or Odesa in the south. With the winter mud starting to dry and spring around the corner, Ukrainian military officials fear a
concerted Russian offensive will start in the next few weeks or months.
Ukraine is perilously short not only of ammunition — especially artillery shells and air defense missiles — but also of soldiers to see off a Russian attack. The average age of Ukraine’s frontline soldiers is 43 — and evidence of draft-dodging is mounting.
The BBC recently reported that
650,000 Ukrainian men of fighting age have fled the country in the past two years, most slipping across its borders with Poland and Slovakia, some with false exemption papers allowing them to exit Ukraine
despite a ban on fighting-age men leaving the country.
Last year nearly 1,300 draft-dodgers found themselves before the courts, but officials acknowledge this is just a small fraction of those avoiding enlistment. A draft system is in effect to supplement the ranks of volunteers, but lawmakers say it is dysfunctional and is hampered by the failure of thousands to register their details and whereabouts. Enforcement is haphazard, depending largely on random spot checks of documents by police, who are more vigilant in some areas of the country than in others.
Moscow’s troop strength inside Ukraine currently exceeds 400,000 soldiers, with another 100,000 near Ukrainian territory. Overall Kyiv has around 680,000 active military personnel with around 200,000 on the frontlines; Russia, meanwhile, has 1.2 million, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Ukrainian army general staff said last year they feared Russia could be considering mobilizing 400,000 to 700,000 additional troops.
In December Zelenskyy said 450,000 to 500,000 extra soldiers would be needed to resist Russia in 2024. The Ukrainian parliament has for weeks been considering fresh mobilization legislation, which would see the minimum conscription age lowered from 27 to 25. The age was in fact lowered in separate legislation last July and approved by parliament, but Zelenskyy never signed it into law. He hasn't fully explained why.
The new draft legislation has been re-written several times and envisages a call-up of another 400,000 Ukrainian troops. It has stalled in the parliament, however, with lawmakers objecting to some punitive measures they regard as unconstitutional, such as restricting the property rights of draft-dodgers, impounding their cars and blocking their bank accounts.
'Hot political potato'
“That’s highly unpopular,” said Mykola Kniazhytskyi, an opposition lawmaker from Lviv. “Truth be told, mobilization is a hot political potato, and no one wants to be holding it. The army needs many more people. But Zelenskyy doesn’t want to take responsibility for the mobilization and says it is up to government ministries, and they’re afraid of getting their hands burned and say it is up to the parliament, which then passes the buck back.
“Even most lawmakers from Zelenskyy’s own party [Servant of the People] are against the legislation, saying it falls foul of European human rights conventions,” Kniazhytskyi added. “This is becoming a real mess. In Lviv, people are buying apartments but don't sign a purchase agreement to avoid it being formally registered, or they register it in a friend’s name because they’re afraid later it could be confiscated. Others are emptying bank accounts in case legislation is approved and their money [is] frozen.”
What isn’t helping, he and other lawmakers say, is the frequent talk from the frontlines about the
lack of weapons and artillery shells. “You have officers going on television saying if we don't get
more money and ammunition from the United States and Europe everyone at the front is going to get killed in a matter of weeks because the Russians produce many drones and have more shells,” Kniazhytskyi fumed. Such prognoses aren’t helping persuade reluctant Ukrainians like Artem to join up.
“There’s no real political will to pass a legislation that would actually work efficiently — it has been postponed so many times already,” said former Deputy Prime Minister Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, now an opposition lawmaker.
“The
Western hesitation in providing the military resupply and weapons we need isn’t helping in terms of mobilization,” she added. “If the only thing you hear from the front is that they
don’t have enough weapons to fight, then obviously it makes people even more skeptical about enlisting.”
An early burst of patriotic fervor saw draft centers swamped with volunteers, but that has waned with Vladimir Putin’s war in its third year.
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