This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
FWIW
"Every day, columns of military equipment head towards #Pologne via the city of Presov ( #Slovaquie ) to the western border of the Kiev entity, from #Roumanie passing through the #HongrieNATO reinforcements or military support for kyiv?"
"Every day, columns of military equipment head towards #Pologne via the city of Presov ( #Slovaquie ) to the western border of the Kiev entity, from #Roumanie passing through the #HongrieNATO reinforcements or military support for kyiv?"
Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing
KYIV — Wayward entrepreneur Elon Musk’s latest pronouncements regarding the war in Ukraine set teeth on edge, as he warned that even though Moscow has “no chance” of conquering all of Ukraine, “the longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnipro, which is tough to overcome.”
“However, if the war lasts long enough, Odesa will fall too,” he cautioned.
With a history of urging Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions — and his opposition to the $60 billion U.S. military aid package snarled on Capitol Hill amid partisan wrangling — Musk isn’t Ukraine’s favorite commentator, to say the least. And his remarks received predictable pushback.
But the billionaire entrepreneur’s forecast isn’t actually all that different from the dire warnings Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made in the last few days. According to Zelenskyy, unless the stalled multibillion-dollar package is approved soon, his forces will have to “go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.” He also warned that some major cities could be at risk of falling.
Obviously, Zelenskyy’s warnings are part of a broad diplomatic effort to free up the military aid his forces so desperately need and have been short of for months — everything from 155-millimeter artillery shells to Patriot air-defense systems and drones. But the sad truth is that even if the package is approved by the U.S. Congress, a massive resupply may not be enough to prevent a major battlefield upset.
And such a setback, especially in the middle of election campaigns in America and Europe, could very well revive Western pressure for negotiations that would obviously favor Russia, leaving the Kremlin free to revive the conflict at a future time of its choosing.
Essentially, everything now depends on where Russia will decide to target its strength in an offensive that’s expected to launch this summer. In a pre-offensive pummeling — stretching from Kharkiv and Sumy in the north to Odesa in the south — Russia’s missile and drone strikes have widely surged in recent weeks, targeting infrastructure and making it hard to guess where it will mount its major push.
And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim.
The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,” they said.
They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely.
“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.
According to him, it is only Ukrainian grit and resilience as well as errors by Russian commanders that may now alter the grim dynamics. Mistakes like the one made on Saturday, when Russia launched one of the largest tank assaults on Ukrainian positions since its full-scale invasion began, only to have the column smashed by Ukraine’s 25th Brigade, which took out a dozen tanks and 8 infantry fighting vehicles — a third of the column’s strength.
However, the high-ranking Ukrainian officers reminded that relying on Russian errors is not a strategy, and they were bitter about the missteps they say hamstrung Ukraine’s resistance from the start — missteps made by both the West and Ukraine. They were also scathing about Western foot-dragging, saying supplies and weapons systems came too late and in insufficient numbers to make the difference they otherwise could have.
“Zaluzhny used to call it ‘the War of One Chance,’” one of the officers said. “By that, he meant weapons systems become redundant very quickly because they’re quickly countered by the Russians. For example, we used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles [supplied by Britain and France] successfully — but just for a short time. The Russians are always studying. They don’t give us a second chance. And they’re successful in this.”
“Don’t believe the hype about them just throwing troops into the meat grinder to be slaughtered,” he added. “They do that too, of course — maximizing even more the impact of their superior numbers — but they also learn and refine.”
The officers said the shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles supplied by the U.K. and U.S. in the first weeks of the invasion came in time, helping them save Kyiv — and so, too, did the HIMARS, the light multiple-launch rocket systems, which were used to great effect, enabling them to push Russia out of Kherson in November 2022.
“But often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them — they come when they’re no longer relevant,” another senior officer said, citing the F-16 fighter jets as an example. A dozen or so F-16s are expected to be operational this summer, after basic pilot training has been completed. “Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024,” he said.
Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing
According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.
continued...bolded is concerning.
And that’s because, according to this officer, Russia is ready to counter them: “In the last few months, we started to notice missiles being fired by the Russians from Dzhankoy in northern Crimea, but without the explosive warheads. We couldn’t understand what they were doing, and then we figured it out: They’re range-finding,” he said. The officer explained that Russia’s been calculating where best to deploy its S-400 missile and radar systems in order to maximize the area they can cover to target the F-16s, keeping them away from the front lines and Russia’s logistical hubs.
The officers also said they now need more basic traditional weapons as well as drones. “We need Howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells, and rockets,” one of them told POLITICO, estimating that Ukraine needed 4 million shells and 2 million drones. “We told the Western partners all the time that we have the combat experience, we have the battlefield understanding of this war. [They] have the resources, and they need to give us what we need,” he added.
Europe, for its part, is trying to help Ukraine make up for its colossal disadvantage in artillery shells. And in this regard, a proposed Czech-led bulk artillery ammunition purchase could bring Ukraine’s total from both within and outside the EU to around 1.5 million rounds at a cost of $3.3 billion — but that’s still short of what it needs.
The officers emphasized that they need many, many more men too. The country currently doesn’t have enough men on the front lines, and this is compounding the problem of underwhelming Western support.
However, Ukraine has yet to pull the trigger on recruitment ahead of the expected Russian push, as authorities are worried about the political fallout mobilization measures might bring amid draft-dodging and avoidance of conscription papers. Zaluzhny had already publicly called for the mobilization of more troops back in December, estimating Ukraine needed at least an additional 500,000 men. The draft issue has gone back and forth ever since.
Then, last week, General Oleksandr Syrsky — Zaluzhny’s replacement — abruptly announced that Ukraine might not need quite so many fresh troops. After a review of resources, the figure has been “significantly reduced,” and “we expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland,” he told the Ukrinform news agency. “I am talking not only about the mobilized but also about volunteer fighters,” he said.
The plan is to move as many desk-bound uniformed personnel and those in noncombat roles to the front lines as possible, after an intensive three- to four-month training. But the senior officers POLITICO spoke to said that Syrsky was wrong and “playing along with narratives from politicians.” Then, on Tuesday, Zelenskyy signed some additional parts to an old mobilization law tightening the legal requirements for draft-age Ukrainian men to register their details, and lowering the minimum age for call-up from 27 to 25. But in Ukraine, this is just seen as tinkering.
“We don’t only have a military crisis — we have a political one,” one of the officers said. While Ukraine shies away from a big draft, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a big attack around August, and maybe sooner.”
And that’s because, according to this officer, Russia is ready to counter them: “In the last few months, we started to notice missiles being fired by the Russians from Dzhankoy in northern Crimea, but without the explosive warheads. We couldn’t understand what they were doing, and then we figured it out: They’re range-finding,” he said. The officer explained that Russia’s been calculating where best to deploy its S-400 missile and radar systems in order to maximize the area they can cover to target the F-16s, keeping them away from the front lines and Russia’s logistical hubs.
The officers also said they now need more basic traditional weapons as well as drones. “We need Howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells, and rockets,” one of them told POLITICO, estimating that Ukraine needed 4 million shells and 2 million drones. “We told the Western partners all the time that we have the combat experience, we have the battlefield understanding of this war. [They] have the resources, and they need to give us what we need,” he added.
Europe, for its part, is trying to help Ukraine make up for its colossal disadvantage in artillery shells. And in this regard, a proposed Czech-led bulk artillery ammunition purchase could bring Ukraine’s total from both within and outside the EU to around 1.5 million rounds at a cost of $3.3 billion — but that’s still short of what it needs.
The officers emphasized that they need many, many more men too. The country currently doesn’t have enough men on the front lines, and this is compounding the problem of underwhelming Western support.
However, Ukraine has yet to pull the trigger on recruitment ahead of the expected Russian push, as authorities are worried about the political fallout mobilization measures might bring amid draft-dodging and avoidance of conscription papers. Zaluzhny had already publicly called for the mobilization of more troops back in December, estimating Ukraine needed at least an additional 500,000 men. The draft issue has gone back and forth ever since.
Then, last week, General Oleksandr Syrsky — Zaluzhny’s replacement — abruptly announced that Ukraine might not need quite so many fresh troops. After a review of resources, the figure has been “significantly reduced,” and “we expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland,” he told the Ukrinform news agency. “I am talking not only about the mobilized but also about volunteer fighters,” he said.
The plan is to move as many desk-bound uniformed personnel and those in noncombat roles to the front lines as possible, after an intensive three- to four-month training. But the senior officers POLITICO spoke to said that Syrsky was wrong and “playing along with narratives from politicians.” Then, on Tuesday, Zelenskyy signed some additional parts to an old mobilization law tightening the legal requirements for draft-age Ukrainian men to register their details, and lowering the minimum age for call-up from 27 to 25. But in Ukraine, this is just seen as tinkering.
“We don’t only have a military crisis — we have a political one,” one of the officers said. While Ukraine shies away from a big draft, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a big attack around August, and maybe sooner.”
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Eloon's comments seem like a fingers crossed evaluation.
AP story about the recent Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia.
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-drones-b2299c10adfde656dbec6b7223598bbc
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-drones-b2299c10adfde656dbec6b7223598bbc
On a related note, both Norway and Denmark have increased the conscription numbers for their militaries.
https://apnews.com/article/norway-conscription-increase-4a2785becc5836f0cf19d24a332b4382
https://apnews.com/article/norway-conscription-increase-4a2785becc5836f0cf19d24a332b4382
Russia is trying to cause airline disasters in Europe.
We know they're doing it, nothing is being done, and when it happens, Russians will issue 20 narratives as to why it wasn't Russia, then western media will spend a year arguing over which of those fake narratives is true.
Works every time.
Looking back, I honestly think they never stopped. It very much is in keeping with their culture and how things were going that they pretended to go along with westernization under Gorby and Yeltsin but they were just puppets and it was an act to let them recover from being financially unable to compete any longer in the Cold War. They played the long game, got the old school KGB thug back in power by late 90s and have been doing everything they can to undermine us like the enemy they never stopped being for 20 plus years now. The only thing saving us is the massive corruption and kleptocracy plus still way less military spending had their army not at all capable of withstanding the US and NATO, which I don’t think Putler was aware of until March of 2022.
"A warehouse with fuel is burning on the territory of the grain terminal in Rostov"
Amen!
Quote: "A big thank you to the various international organisations that are constantly condemning something.
It is very important that they do condemn and focus on the strikes on Ukraine. Some have also raised the issue of strikes on refineries [in Russia – ed.], on temporarily occupied territories where there are infrastructure facilities, as well as on Russian military airfields and captured Ukrainian ones.
Responding to these organisations is very simple.
It seems to me that to really understand how to survive in Kharkiv, how people are living with no electricity or water, people probably need to come and see, and then condemn something or not. Russia understands nothing but force.
And all the condemnations of the illegal occupation of our territory, the attacks on our energy sector, the power outages we have experienced over the past two years, the blowing up of our infrastructure facilities and hydroelectric power plants... All these condemnations have not led to any reduction in the Russian Federation’s attacks.
This shows that these people only understand when there is a powerful response, so I believe that our Western partners should support Ukrainian responses."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/come-kharkiv-first-condemn-us-130040133.html
Quote: "A big thank you to the various international organisations that are constantly condemning something.
It is very important that they do condemn and focus on the strikes on Ukraine. Some have also raised the issue of strikes on refineries [in Russia – ed.], on temporarily occupied territories where there are infrastructure facilities, as well as on Russian military airfields and captured Ukrainian ones.
Responding to these organisations is very simple.
It seems to me that to really understand how to survive in Kharkiv, how people are living with no electricity or water, people probably need to come and see, and then condemn something or not. Russia understands nothing but force.
And all the condemnations of the illegal occupation of our territory, the attacks on our energy sector, the power outages we have experienced over the past two years, the blowing up of our infrastructure facilities and hydroelectric power plants... All these condemnations have not led to any reduction in the Russian Federation’s attacks.
This shows that these people only understand when there is a powerful response, so I believe that our Western partners should support Ukrainian responses."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/come-kharkiv-first-condemn-us-130040133.html
Some more information on the sending troops to Ukraine argument.
"According to the latest news from the Russian #TASS news agency on April 3, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman #Zakharova said that, based on available information, "at the beginning of March the French Foreign Legion had already identified 1,500 soldiers to participate in the fighting in #Ukraine."The battalion-level tactical group composition "should be fully combat-ready and deployed to Ukraine in April."
France has not yet responded.At present, regarding #Macron's "troop deployment theory," #NATO is divided into two camps: the countries represented by the United States, #Germany, #Low Countries and others are firmly against sending troops to Ukraine to prevent escalation of the situation; while the active Baltic countries, #Poland and #Finland believe that there is nothing wrong with the "troop deployment theory" and that no long-term possibility should be ruled out."
"According to the latest news from the Russian #TASS news agency on April 3, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman #Zakharova said that, based on available information, "at the beginning of March the French Foreign Legion had already identified 1,500 soldiers to participate in the fighting in #Ukraine."The battalion-level tactical group composition "should be fully combat-ready and deployed to Ukraine in April."
France has not yet responded.At present, regarding #Macron's "troop deployment theory," #NATO is divided into two camps: the countries represented by the United States, #Germany, #Low Countries and others are firmly against sending troops to Ukraine to prevent escalation of the situation; while the active Baltic countries, #Poland and #Finland believe that there is nothing wrong with the "troop deployment theory" and that no long-term possibility should be ruled out."
Pretty crazy history is repeating itself. World War 3 will have 3 theaters. Ukraine/Russia, Israel/Middle East and Taiwan/China. Africa will probably stay hot too.
LOL - what do you think-an airborne assault or somebody got shot down? 
1,500 troops?
If Macron wants to do this why not go all in? Not send a battalion and if shit hits the fan get the rest of NATO involved.
Go all in...send in a sizeable contingent. Put your money where your mouth is...send in French Air Force units.
Seems like posturing to get the rest of NATO involved.
"Images of three Portuguese Leopard 2A6POs sent by An-124 "Ruslan" transport aircraft for transfer to the Ukrainian army."
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I don't know what is going on there but found this story about Russian aircraft using an Iran airbase back in 2016. Ties are probably even closer now with Iran supplying all those drones to kill Ukrainians.
https://www.commonspace.eu/news/ira...an-planes-are-being-refueled-hamadan-air-base
Hit it with a missile.
Give them 48 hrs warning to shut it off permanently. Otherwise, destroy it.
More photos of this attack.
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What a stupid answer. They are going to lose due to lack of manpower and those young pussies are just going to be another group of refugees in Europe.
We all mock the French given their performance over the last 100 years. But kuddos to them for stepping up. I mean WTF is Russia going to do in retaliation besides cyber. They can't even get their boats out of harbor.
With the reconquest of Kherson oblast Odessa is protected by two large rivers.
If the Russians somehow re-took Kherson (and they're still trying to reduce a bridgehead on the south bank that Ukraine has established), they'd still have to get through Nikolaev (where they stalled the first time), and across the Southern Bug river, and then there are even more large water obstacles creating chokepoints before Odessa.
I don't think Odessa is really under threat.
More frightening prospect for Ukraine are cities like Kharkov or Sumy ending up getting the Grozny treatment if the war drags on and the front lines return to those cities.
The Russians are currently handing France their ass in their ‘post Colonial’ African territories.
I knew next to nothing about how the French had managed their affairs in Africa. Only reading in passing about their monetary system.
The fall of Libya to jihadists turns out to have been a strategic error, and now the Russians are exploiting the jihadists across the Sahel and flipping governments that had been ‘friendly’ to French interests.
Macron’s bellicosity makes more sense in the bigger picture, whereas other European NATO members don’t have this ‘front’ to consider:
