This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...
- Thread starter Nole Lou
- Start date
MTG can't be happy reading these numbers?
This appears to be a new arrest. I'm beginning to wonder if this is more about resistance to Putin and less about corruption.
Well, it’s been about a year since the last coup attempt so they’re due for another one.
What should we read into this?
Ukrainian media reports say the commander responsible for the defense of the northeastern Kharkiv front, General Yuriy Halushkin, has been replaced by General Mykhaylo Drapatiy. The change, as reported by Ukraine's RBK news site and Suspilne, which cited sources in the Khortytsia operational-strategic group, occurred on May 11 as Russian forces pressed on with a large-scale attack in the Kharkiv region bordering Russia. The reports said Drapatiy will also keep his current position as deputy chief of the General Staff. Before his appointment to the General Staff, Drapatiy led the operations in the Kherson region. To read the original story by Current Time, click here.
Nice. With Shoigu getting sacked morale at the upper echelons might be getting low. Time for a revolt. They can’t be happy with a civilian leader so closely tied to Putin being in charge.
The rest of the world wants the Ukraine war to go away. Putin has other ideas
(CNN) The changing language used by the Ukrainian military in 72 hours of daily updates tells the story: “Ongoing defensive fighting.” “Significantly worsened.” Russian “tactical success.”
You rarely ever hear Kyiv’s top brass sounding downbeat, but their steep southerly trajectory reflects the grave place Ukraine finds itself in. Russia is not just advancing slowly in one place; it appears to be advancing in four, across the frontline.
Moscow knows it is on the clock: in about a month, the $61billion of US military aid will start to translate into Ukraine having the weapons it has been begging for. So, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be throwing whatever he can at it, knowing the fight will likely only get tougher for his forces in the summer ahead.
First, and most acutely troubling, is the northern border near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city. Russian forces have crossed the border in multiple locations and claim to have seized nine villages. Their move 3 to 4.5 miles (5 to 7 kilometers) into Ukraine, in the border area above Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv, is arguably their fastest advance since the first days of the war. Russia has thrown five battalions at the border town of Vovchansk, Ukrainian officials said, which has been hit hard by airstrikes over the weekend.
The town of Lyptsi is at risk, say some military bloggers, and from there Russian forces could hit Kharkiv with artillery. This is a nightmare for Kyiv for two reasons: firstly, they liberated this land from Russian forces 18 months ago, yet failed, clearly, to fortify the area enough to prevent Moscow sweeping back with the ease with which they were swept out.
And secondly, Russia can again tie up Ukraine’s over-stretched army with constant and grinding pressure on Kharkiv, exacting a toll with crude shelling on a vast urban center.
Then there is the rest of the front, where progress in Kharkiv region has been mirrored by old, exhausting fights suddenly seeing new Russian success. This should be the greatest cause for concern to Kyiv, as it suggests a coordinated bid to push in all directions and leave Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with ugly choices about where to send limited resources, and where ultimately to sacrifice.
Moving slowly south from Kharkiv, closer to Bakhmut, the town of Chasiv Yar has been under intense pressure – a valuable height above two key Ukrainian military towns, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which could prove an exhaustive pressure point over the summer on Kyiv’s supply lines. Netailove and Krasnohorivka slightly further south show Russian forces making further gains to the west of Avdiivka, and threatening another key hub – Pokrovsk. If Ukraine begins to fall back further here, its grip on the remnants of Donetsk region could be at risk.
And then overnight, Deep State Map, a Ukrainian military analysis group, said the southern village of Verbove was under greater threat – one of the minimal gains from Kyiv’s stymied summer counteroffensive last year. All across the board, the news is bad: it is a growing calamity.
Ukraine’s rhetorical response has been telling. Its leaders have, for once, openly said how bad it is. They appear to be shuffling commanders around – which is not something you do in the heat of battle without desperate reason. There is vocal criticism of the failure to prepare and fortify the northern border regions over the past year. Indeed, along much of the front line where there is not active fighting, and in the near-rear to active frontlines, fortifications seem wanting, if not entirely absent. It may be that Kyiv believed so much in its counteroffensive last summer, that it failed to entertain the idea of bad news this summer.
Kyiv’s larger problem is global attention. Trenchant statements from European ministers, and even visits from senior Biden administration officials, cannot cut through the fatigue or the notion that helping Ukraine win is something governments see they strategically must do, rather than something their publics actively demand. It is becoming a war the world wishes would go away – side-lined by the horrors of the Middle East – exactly when its outcome is most perilous and vital for European security.
Putin used the weekend to reshuffle some of his cabinet – moving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to a more procedural role as National Security Council head, and perhaps further away from the wartime cookie jar. An accountant, Andrey Belousov, will take his place. But this is not necessarily a sign of retribution for failure, or a reset: the same old boys still get nice jobs. It smacks more of Moscow economizing, integrating the war more fully into the economy, and settling in for the longer haul.
The opposite is happening in the West, where the congressional dysfunction pausing that paused the US’s $61 billion in aid has already wreaked havoc on Ukraine’s military effort. Its forces are losing now because of that six-month delay in ammunition reaching them. Europe talks big about making up the gap, but it cannot. And Washington DC will now be in a whirlwind of electioneering ahead of the US elections in November just when Kyiv needs American certainty most.
The news is not just bad, it is worsening daily. The ground on the front lines is drying out, bringing us into the season to attack. Russia has momentum unlike anything seen since March 2022. Ukraine is being forced to admit just how bad the situation is. Much of the world may be tiring of this war, but Putin is not.
Possible "good" news for Ukraine and maybe Russia recognizing they do not have the strength to make big gains everywhere as cited above.
Another weapons deal in the making. At this point China probably sees this war as harmful to the U.S., Russia and Europe. China will continue to add fuel to the fire because China will always do what is best for China.
Harmful to Russia but this is the strongest and most united NATO has been in a very long time.
Maybe but I also think silver lining is China has been woken up to just how hard it is now to invade a well organized and supplied country. Warfare is changing before our eyes and becoming one of realtime delivery of micro weapons at targets taking out soldiers, tanks, planes, and even ships. It is leveling the playing field. Good news for all countries except the ones that want to keep playing empire building. China would be very foolish at this point to keep pouring money into trying to catch nato and US and instead realize their empire building should stay as economic.
Aye, there’s the rub.
The cost of denial has collapsed, and Taiwan is 80 miles off China, and we bit further from her allies.
How many jet skis with bombs strapped to them do you think the Chinese can produce in a year? A couple million if they wanted to, right?
There would never be a better time than these last three years to try…why do you think they have not tried yet? The risk is far too great.
Why is three years ago better than three years from now from their perspective?
China’s navy is, by far, the largest of any country in East Asia, and sometime between 2015 and 2020 it surpassed the U.S. Navy in numbers of battle force ships. DOD states that China’s navy “is the largest navy in the world with a battle force of over 370 platforms, including major surface combatants, submarines, ocean-going amphibious ships, mine warfare ships, aircraft carriers, and fleet auxiliaries. Notably, this figure does not include approximately 60 HOUBEI-class patrol combatants that carry anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM). The… overall battle force [of China’s navy] is expected to grow to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 ships by 2030.” The U.S. Navy, by comparison, included 291 battle force ships as of October 19, 2023, and the Navy’s FY2024 budget submission projects that the Navy will include 290 battle force ships by the end of FY2030.
If the porcupines are prickly enough, no one will try to swallow them. And when the prickly porcupines band together, even more so.
Wonder if this is the same train damage we saw earlier. May not be due to the description of a massive explosion here.
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Nobody knows, but I can’t imagine China is watching what has happened to Russia’s economy, military and standing in world power from invading Ukraine and thinking that doing the same with Taiwan is a great idea. Especially after seeing NATO expand and “The West” begin to ramp up themselves militarily. A more Chinese type plan would be to announce they recognize Taiwan and start making plans for all that poorly defended land with natural resources north of them…
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There is roughly a billion dollars in shit that was supposed to help stop this that cannot be accounted for right now.
US State Department does not anticipate Russian breakthrough toward Kharkiv
The U.S. State Department does "not anticipate any major breakthroughs" by Russia toward Kharkiv, but Russia may "make further advances in the coming weeks," Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said during a press briefing on May 13.
Please point out in either of the articles attached where this exact claim was made.
US State Department does not anticipate Russian breakthrough toward Kharkiv
The U.S. State Department does "not anticipate any major breakthroughs" by Russia toward Kharkiv, but Russia may "make further advances in the coming weeks," Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said during a press briefing on May 13.kyivindependent.com
Wargaming the effects of a Trump presidency on NATO
PDF of the exercise
May 2026 – October 2026: Ukrainian Defeat
15. In May 2026 Russia launched a reinvigorated campaign against the Ukrainian defensive line.
Given an absence of US support, and the inadequacy of EU(and UK/Turkey) support, Russia pushed the Ukrainian lines back, and by July 2026, Kyiv was encircled, with heavy shelling occurring daily.
16. Key NATO members such as US & Germany made it clear to Ukraine that membership was impossible whilst Russian forces occupied its territory.
17. With little choice, Ukraine agreed to a treaty signed in Ankara that:
• Recognised Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv and the Donbass as Russian territory.
• Asserted that Ukraine will enshrine into law that it will never join NATO.
• Installed a Government in Kyiv that was pro-Moscow
PDF of the exercise
May 2026 – October 2026: Ukrainian Defeat
15. In May 2026 Russia launched a reinvigorated campaign against the Ukrainian defensive line.
Given an absence of US support, and the inadequacy of EU(and UK/Turkey) support, Russia pushed the Ukrainian lines back, and by July 2026, Kyiv was encircled, with heavy shelling occurring daily.
16. Key NATO members such as US & Germany made it clear to Ukraine that membership was impossible whilst Russian forces occupied its territory.
17. With little choice, Ukraine agreed to a treaty signed in Ankara that:
• Recognised Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv and the Donbass as Russian territory.
• Asserted that Ukraine will enshrine into law that it will never join NATO.
• Installed a Government in Kyiv that was pro-Moscow
I know we have discussed the accuracy of the casualty counts many times, but when I see a video like that I tend to believe the heightened Russian casualty numbers. It isn't just the drunken slob of a soldier, it's his officers at the small unit level, the officers above them, and the autocratic leader who keeps stuffing more meat into the grinder. No training to speak of, no leadership, lacking proper equipment, and with no unified battlefield goals other than go take that village. And, after 1000 men die, send another 1000 in behind them
Baiting them into a cluster group and then bomb the fvck out of their barracks.
US State Department does not anticipate Russian breakthrough toward Kharkiv
The U.S. State Department does "not anticipate any major breakthroughs" by Russia toward Kharkiv, but Russia may "make further advances in the coming weeks," Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said during a press briefing on May 13.
