This is what I was worried about....Ukraine has to shift forces to counter the threat. Less forces for the main effort.
F Belarus.
The threat is most likely hollow as Belarus would include themselves in the ass whoopin but Ukraine has to honor the threat...can't totally disregard.
Hopefully it's 2nd rate units...units that have to be pulled off the line to reconstitute anyway and doesn't drastically reduce Ukraines offensive capabilities..(Ukraine might be overselling the shift as well....I've read a ton of military history and they used to call this "demonstrating"....oversell a shift in forces to make the enemy believe you have more forces along a line of attack than you actually do)
Ukraine having to shift forces...it's a huge border...almost makes Belarus an active participant on Russia's side. They're directly affecting the battlefield.
In addition...if the UN was even a halfway effective organization.....peace keeping troops along the Belarus border would be in order. Won't happen obviously but a UN peacekeeping force along that border would be justified in preventing escalation of the conflict...something 98% of the world wants.
But the UN is an ineffective organization at a time we need it to be effective.
(Belarus just blustering is almost more effective than being actively engaged....this is a threat Ukraine has to honor and can be kept up indefinitely. If Belarus actually attacked...Ukraine could kick their ass back across the border and basically eliminate the threat.)
This is a major development in the war and if Ukraines Offensives stall you can point to this.
It's all about buying time for Russia until the "Wests" resolve starts to falter...and it will falter eventually if economic predictions are correct. We don't do long term commitments very well in the West when political shifts come into play.