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This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

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So if new and better weapons continue to pour in, including F-16s in May, imagine if the tide begins to turn and Russia’s economy continues to crumble all leading to FINALLY Putin falling out a window and Russia pulling out of Ukraine say in September and October. Biden gets a parade in Kyiv with a million Ukrainians waiving US flags right before the election and rightwing conspiracy theory will abound that this was all choreographed so Biden wins the election in a landslide.
 
Anybody else remember when Macron visited China last year and basically fellated Xi?

Mr Macron said the EU had to punch its geopolitical weight in the world and prove “that it’s never going to be the, say, the lapdog of the United States and know how to speak with all of the other regions of the world.”
 
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So if new and better weapons continue to pour in, including F-16s in May, imagine if the tide begins to turn and Russia’s economy continues to crumble all leading to FINALLY Putin falling out a window and Russia pulling out of Ukraine say in September and October. Biden gets a parade in Kyiv with a million Ukrainians waiving US flags right before the election and rightwing conspiracy theory will abound that this was all choreographed so Biden wins the election in a landslide.
You just gave the Radical Right media their news stories for the next month.

Oh...and Moscow Marge as well.
 
I can't find it, but I read an article yesterday about F-16 training going on in SW France. 10-12 pilots, half of which are still in the UK getting intensive English lessons, from there it's 80 flight hours plus simulator training in France. The interesting thing was all of this batch are under 22 years old. I wondered if that is a signal how many Ukrainian pilots have been killed, or are the Ukrainians also looking at using a younger generation trained from scratch to fly the F-16s?
 
You don't think there could be some US intelligence deception here?
Say one thing and do another to the point Russia will move assets out into the open and Ukraine bombs the piss out of them?
On the other hand, it has taken 2 years to get them the longer range missiles, they still don't have F16s (or any other modern Western fighters) and we gave them only 31 of our 10,000 Abrams tanks. (We have 5,000 older models we could have modified like the 31 we have already sent.)
It really does look like we are still afraid of Russia which is costing Ukraine their best chance to win.
 
So if new and better weapons continue to pour in, including F-16s in May, imagine if the tide begins to turn and Russia’s economy continues to crumble all leading to FINALLY Putin falling out a window and Russia pulling out of Ukraine say in September and October. Biden gets a parade in Kyiv with a million Ukrainians waiving US flags right before the election

If it doesn’t, and the Ukrainians are still being pushed west, then what?
The similarities with the Korean War are getting more striking. In the first year, significant moves of the line, but things have really stagnated, and I get the sense this election will be about ending the war, with less talk about ‘winning’ the war.
 
If it doesn’t, and the Ukrainians are still being pushed west, then what?
The similarities with the Korean War are getting more striking. In the first year, significant moves of the line, but things have really stagnated, and I get the sense this election will be about ending the war, with less talk about ‘winning’ the war.
If it was just the US that may be more likely but several countries of western Europe say they will not allow Russia to win. I hope they mean it.
 
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If it doesn’t, and the Ukrainians are still being pushed west, then what?
The similarities with the Korean War are getting more striking. In the first year, significant moves of the line, but things have really stagnated, and I get the sense this election will be about ending the war, with less talk about ‘winning’ the war.
Hahaha. Still being pushed west. Tell me how many square kilometers has your fatherland captured over last year?
 
Hahaha. Still being pushed west.

Yes, going to back to reality, that is the case:

Apr 23, 2024

Russian forces have made significant advances in a narrow corridor in eastern Ukraine as an offensive by Moscow to take territory before western military aid arrives appears to be gathering pace.

Footage posted by Kremlin military bloggers shows a Russian tricolour flying above the shattered village of Ocheretyne. Russian troops reportedly entered the territory on Sunday, north-west of the town of Avdiivka, after advancing about 5km in 10 days.

It comes as Ukraine’s foreign ministry said it was suspending consular services for military-age men living abroad, except for those heading back to Ukraine, in a move designed to increase conscription.

The Ukrainian army retreated from Avdiivka in February and has been trying to establish a new defensive line in settlements along the Durna River but in recent weeks reinforced Russian units have been pushing forward, using air-launched glide bombs to pulverise Ukrainian bunkers.

Moscow’s defence ministry claimed Ukrainian troops fled Ocheretyne in small groups and under heavy fire. Video showed a destroyed administration building, with its windows blown out and streets full of debris. Civilians appeared to have left.

Its capture means Russia has managed to bypass the northern flank of Ukraine’s recently constructed forward line, including minefields and trenches. The village – once home to 3,000 people, and a local road and rail hub – sits at the intersection of a network of defences.

Ukraine’s regional armed forces HQ admitted the situation was difficult.
 

Greece seems to refuse​


However, on the night of April 23rd, an official denial of these reports came from Pavlos Marinakis, the representative of Greece’s Cabinet of Ministers. He stressed that Greece would not undertake any action that could potentially compromise the country’s defense capabilities, specifically about their capacity to counter airborne threats.

“I answered clearly that we will not take any steps that will jeopardize the country’s deterrent potential, the country’s air defense “ stated the official. He further clarified that he was not aware of any plans from Washington to assist Athens in bringing the Patriot to the Ukrainian army.


One interesting point to ponder is that the Greek army possesses 36 launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system. In contrast to this, Germany has already handed over two batteries of American systems to Ukraine and by January 2024 had 30 launchers remaining, to transfer another this year. In such a scenario, Athens seems to be in a unique position to take the reins, given that Berlin’s capacity to deliver Patriots is coming to an end.
It’s worth noting that Greece doesn’t solely rely on the Patriot anti-aircraft system for its air defense. Interestingly, they also incorporate the Russian S-300 system, designed to concurrently detect and intercept multiple targets over a considerable range. Besides, the Greek military utilizes the TOR-M1 system, another remarkable Russian invention. This anti-aircraft apparatus aims to provide defense against fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, drones, and various other aerial threats over shorter ranges.


Shifting from Russia, Greece also hosts the French-made Crotale NG [Next Generation] system. This ground-based, short-range air defense mechanism is specifically designed to counter low-altitude aircraft and helicopters. Moreover, though originating from Germany, Greece utilizes the ASRAD-R system for defense. Portable in nature, this air defense system can be mounted on multiple platforms. It is engineered to safeguard mobile units as well as stationary installations.


 
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Yes, going to back to reality, that is the case:

Apr 23, 2024

Russian forces have made significant advances in a narrow corridor in eastern Ukraine as an offensive by Moscow to take territory before western military aid arrives appears to be gathering pace.

Footage posted by Kremlin military bloggers shows a Russian tricolour flying above the shattered village of Ocheretyne. Russian troops reportedly entered the territory on Sunday, north-west of the town of Avdiivka, after advancing about 5km in 10 days.

It comes as Ukraine’s foreign ministry said it was suspending consular services for military-age men living abroad, except for those heading back to Ukraine, in a move designed to increase conscription.

The Ukrainian army retreated from Avdiivka in February and has been trying to establish a new defensive line in settlements along the Durna River but in recent weeks reinforced Russian units have been pushing forward, using air-launched glide bombs to pulverise Ukrainian bunkers.

Moscow’s defence ministry claimed Ukrainian troops fled Ocheretyne in small groups and under heavy fire. Video showed a destroyed administration building, with its windows blown out and streets full of debris. Civilians appeared to have left.

Its capture means Russia has managed to bypass the northern flank of Ukraine’s recently constructed forward line, including minefields and trenches. The village – once home to 3,000 people, and a local road and rail hub – sits at the intersection of a network of defences.

Ukraine’s regional armed forces HQ admitted the situation was difficult.
So I take it you did not want to answer my question on how many square miles have they actually advance over last year?


_132701229_ukraine_control_quad_20_02_24_640-nc-2x-nc.png
 
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So I take it you did not want to answer my question on how many square miles have they actually advance over last year?
I chose to ignore how you put it.

I had earlier found a nice breakdown of how ground has been traded each year, but I'm not turning it up now (using ISW maps).
I don't expect to see moves like we saw in 2022 for either side from here.
Like I said earlier, this is settling down to a grind like Korea, but Ukraine is the one losing ground, and we've seen the difficulty they face in retaking in 2023.

Do you think six months from now the Ukrainians will be in a better position?
 
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