This might be a little tougher than Putin thought...

[seminole97]

Here is what I had seen this morning:

The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, April 23, 2024​

Who’s Winning and Who’s Losing What?​

Territorial Control​

Report Card*​

Change in control of Ukrainian territory​

• Since Feb. 24, 2022:
  • Russia: +25,000 square miles. 11% of Ukraine. Area equivalent to Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Connecticut combined.
  • Ukraine: 0. Ukraine has not taken any territory controlled by Russia before the 2022 invasion.
• Since Aug. 29, 2022 Ukrainian counteroffensive: Ukraine +6,550 square miles. 3% of Ukraine. Area equivalent to Connecticut and Rhode Island combined.
  • Russia: +480.
  • Ukraine: +7,030.
• In past month: Russia +33 square miles.
  • Russia: +35.
  • Ukraine: +2.
• In past week: Russia +4 square miles.
  • Russia: +5.
  • Ukraine: +1.

Total territory occupied by Russia at some point since Feb. 24, 2022: 54,000 square miles.

• Total territory reclaimed by Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022: 29,000. 54% of total territory occupied by Russia.
• Currently occupied by Russia: 25,000.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Do you think Putin is mad at Xi?

The story is that Putin put off the initial drive into Ukraine at Xi's request so as not to deflect from China's Winter Olympics. Thereby giving up some significant weather advantages that ultimately helped Ukraine resist and recover.

I imagine Putin agreed, expecting strong support from China in return. And also because Putin understands first-hand the potential harmful blowback when geopolitics conflict with Olympics. But China's support has been rather tepid.

 

[h-hawk]

Do you think Putin is mad at Xi?

The story is that Putin put off the initial drive into Ukraine at Xi's request so as not to deflect from China's Winter Olympics. Thereby giving up some significant weather advantages that ultimately helped Ukraine resist and recover.

I imagine Putin agreed, expecting strong support from China in return. And also because Putin understands first-hand the potential harmful blowback when geopolitics conflict with Olympics. But China's support has been rather tepid

IMO lame Russian excuse for their failure.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

IMO lame Russian excuse for their failure.

Good grief. That's not a Russian excuse. It's a question.

Step out of the echo chamber once in a while.

 

[seminole97]

Do you think Putin is mad at Xi?
The story is that Putin put off the initial drive into Ukraine at Xi's request so as not to deflect from China's Winter Olympics. Thereby giving up some significant weather advantages that ultimately helped Ukraine resist and recover.

Not the way I remember it.

January 27, 2022

Ukrainian official tells CNN Biden-Zelensky call "did not go well," White House disputes account​

From CNN's Matthew Chance and Jeremy Herb

A call between US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday "did not go well," as the pair disagree on the "risk levels" of a Russian attack, a senior Ukrainian official told CNN.
The White House, however, disputed the official's account, warning that anonymous sources were "leaking falsehoods." They did state that Biden warned Zelensky an imminent invasion is a "distinct possibility."
On the call, which the Ukrainian official described as "long and frank," Biden warned his Ukrainian counterpart that a Russian attack may be imminent, saying that an invasion was now virtually certain once the ground freezes later in February, according to the official.
Zelensky, however, restated his position that the threat from Russia remains "dangerous but ambiguous," saying it's not certain that an attack will take place, the official added.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

" Spain will supply Ukraine with a small number of Patriot missiles. But there are very limited numbers. This is because the Spanish military reserve has about 50 units and the missiles themselves are very expensive - a government source told the publication."

 

[h-hawk]

Doesn't seem to be a reasonable response-if they are effective, only 5 out of 31 seems a reasonable price to pay.

 

[h-hawk]

TGIF



Seems like a fun date.

 

[h-hawk]

FWIW- Turkey has refused to send their missiles as recently as May 2023.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

 

[Tenacious E]

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I can't find it, but I read an article yesterday about F-16 training going on in SW France. 10-12 pilots, half of which are still in the UK getting intensive English lessons, from there it's 80 flight hours plus simulator training in France. The interesting thing was all of this batch are under 22 years old. I wondered if that is a signal how many Ukrainian pilots have been killed, or are the Ukrainians also looking at using a younger generation trained from scratch to fly the F-16s?

Seems like it's basic flight training. Not on the F-16 specifically.

Scheduled to last around six months, this phase will take place at an air base in southwest France, the precise location of which is being kept confidential for security reasons. The French training program for Ukrainian pilots includes approximately 50 simulator sessions and 80 flying hours on the Alpha Jet, a Franco-German twin-engine aircraft. The French Air Force used this model to train its pilots until early 2023, after which they switched to using the Pilatus PC-21s, a two-seater Swiss propeller plane. France still has 43 Alpha Jets, a dozen of which are still used by the Patrouille de France (the precision aerobatics demonstration unit of the French Air and Space Force), but are gradually being withdrawn from service.

European-trained Ukrainian F-16 pilots will not be ready until late 2024

Aged between 21 and 23, with very little experience, the 10 soldiers in training will have to spend several more months training before they acquire the knowledge and experience required for combat aviation.

www.lemonde.fr

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

View embedded media

They've been talking about ramping up 155mm production for a couple years now.

Pretty perplexing the difficulties we've had doing this....by we I mean all the NATO partners.

 

[noleclone2]

They've been talking about ramping up 155mm production for a couple years now.

Pretty perplexing the difficulties we've had doing this....by we I mean all the NATO partners.

I think a very yuge thing for us (by us I mean all our NATO SEATO parters) from this war is the new global economy has a lot of countries not able to ramp up military production like we once could say before the mid 90s. We are dependent on a lot of other countries.

 

[Tenacious E]

They've been talking about ramping up 155mm production for a couple years now.

Pretty perplexing the difficulties we've had doing this....by we I mean all the NATO partners.

this is callous, but I am glad we are finding this out trying to support an ally rather than trying to win one of our wars. We now have a two-year head start fixing this unacceptable problem.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I think a very yuge thing for us (by us I mean all our NATO SEATO parters) from this war is the new global economy has a lot of countries not able to ramp up military production like we once could say before the mid 90s. We are dependent on a lot of other countries.

Yep, the "wests" industrial capacity to ramp up what is basically low tech industrial production is alarmingly weak.

It's because we off shored these basic production capabilities and and our manufacturing base is weak.

Hopefully the "west" understands that this is very serious national defense weakness.

We can make the best high tech stuff in the world but in limited numbers....very difficult to ramp up the quantity of those things and the basics...like 155mm shells.

 

[SA_Hawk]

Ukraine getting the $60 billion is great news and all the new weapon systems heading to the battlefield will certainly help.

So what’s the plan after the $60 billion has been used and all the weapons have been fired off and if map of Russian held territory doesn’t change?

Does the current administration have a plan or an off-ramp for this war to end? Or is total victory over Russia the only plan?

 

[noleclone2]

Ukraine getting the $60 billion is great news and all the new weapon systems heading to the battlefield will certainly help.

So what’s the plan after the $60 billion has been used and all the weapons have been fired off and if map of Russian held territory doesn’t change?

Does the current administration have a plan or an off-ramp for this war to end? Or is total victory over Russia the only plan?

I think the plan is make it clear to Russia from an economic standpoint and continued destruction of their army that they need to get rid of the madman behind it all. There are cracks for sure forming and now that they know US and NATO are doubling down and seeing the GOP not all lock in step with the MAGA Pro Russia people, they know Ukraine is in it for the long haul.

 

[h-hawk]

They've been talking about ramping up 155mm production for a couple years now.

Pretty perplexing the difficulties we've had doing this....by we I mean all the NATO partners.

And it may have been last week when it was mentioned that one of the leading suppliers of guncotton (needed for some explosives) was China! Hope they are not slowing down that supply to help Russia.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

And it may have been last week when it was mentioned that one of the leading suppliers of guncotton (needed for some explosives) was China! Hope they are not slowing down that supply to help Russia.

We saw what relying on china for PPE production during covid got us...relying on them for defense items seems unwise.

 

[seminole97]

Yep, the "wests" industrial capacity to ramp up what is basically low tech industrial production is alarmingly weak.

It's because we off shored these basic production capabilities and and out manufacturing base is weak.

We manufacture more value worth of goods than ever before, we just do it with more robotics and fewer people than earlier in your life. The manufacturing share of the economy is smaller, but the output isn’t declining. That’s just the service economy growing even faster.

I think if they threw the money at it the result would be different, but nobody wants to fund new factories and have the war end in two months and production revert to pre-war levels.

If they were serious about it, they’d proceed differently. But we’re not willing to sacrifice any butter for more guns.

Russia on the other hand has devoted more to having a ‘war economy’.

This is in line with Obama’s observation that Ukraine is a vital national security interest to Russia, but not the West.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

 

[seminole97]

they know Ukraine is in it for the long haul.

When do you think the next ask for money happens?
After the election?

Ukraine’s ability to ‘haul’ is contingent on our (political) willingness to ‘push’.

 

[seminole97]

View embedded media

Hard to watch that and imagine they couldn’t make use of A-10s…

 

[h-hawk]

"Locals in Russia's Norilsk reacted negatively to the plans announced by Potanin. The most pessimistic comments foretold Norilsk's fate as an abandoned Vorkuta.So:
Western sanctions are working;
this relocation to China may be followed by a number of other enterprises, primarily metallurgical ones;
it is most likely that not only production facilities, but also the profit center will be moved to China, including in order to get these profits out from under international sanctions;
in the current model of relations between China and Russia, Russia is a supplier of cheap raw materials and a consumer of finished Chinese products.Thus, Russia is gradually turning into a raw materials appendage.

 

[h-hawk]

"Children in Russia!"

 

[h-hawk]

View embedded media

View embedded media

 

[noleclone2]

When do you think the next ask for money happens?
After the election?

Ukraine’s ability to ‘haul’ is contingent on our (political) willingness to ‘push’.

Not just us. Most of NATO and SEATO. I know how hard this is for you given your posting history last three years here that goes something like this:

Summer of 2021 right up to invasion February 2022 “Russia is just doing war games and will never invade. Democrats and Biden just fear mongering to distract from Covid and economy and inflation. It’s all in response to NATO aggression”

February 2022 to summerish 2022: Cheerlead Russia while saying Ukraine should negotiate peace while also defending Russia’s invasion by blaming Ukraine and NATO, so much so, that you earned the board nickname of Natty Light based on paid Russian HORT troll Nat Algren (RIP)

Summerish 2022 to April 2024: Take your ball and go home, disappearing off board for about a year, only returning last summer when Ukraine’s counteroffensive is a dud and MAGA Russian ****wads start cutting off the money. Go back to narrative Ukraine has no chance and should have peace talks and the alliance is breaking apart and won’t last.

Late April 2024 as US finally steps up, as does NATO, and weapons flow in, including longer range ones and soon to be F-15s: “When do you think the next ask for money happens?” (while stamping left foot in rage)

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

I don't believe this has been posted yet.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

The official list.

 

[h-hawk]

 

[h-hawk]

"Rodolphe Polis, press officer at the Belgian MoD, told Defense News that the country currently has 53 F-16s in its inventories.

In 2018, Brussels signed a multi-billion dollar contract with Lockheed Martin for the supply of 34 F-35 fighter jets that are set to replace the aging F-16s it possesses. However, the timeline for these deliveries has already been delayed.

“In April 2023, Minister Dedonder confirmed that only two F-35s out of the initial four would be delivered during the first quarter of 2024,” Alain De Neve, researcher at the Belgium-based Royal Higher Institute for Defense think tank told Defense News. “This means that the F-16 to F-35 transition could face hiccups, meanwhile Belgium is obliged to maintain an operational fleet of aircraft, particularly for its joint missions in the Baltics.”

https://www.defensenews.com/air/202...to-send-f-16s-to-ukraine-but-not-before-2025/