First of all, congratulations on a great season and being selected for the Rose Bowl. I am looking forward to what should be a great game and a traditional Pac-12 (okay, Pac-10/-8)-Big Ten matchup.
I've seen several threads asking if Stanford's offense is just McCaffrey and what Northwestern did to beat Stanford and thought I would give my perspective on Stanford's team. It is a team similar in strength, in my opinion, to the 2012 and 2013 Stanford teams that played in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin and Michigan State, but with a much different make up. 2015 Stanford is much better offensively and much weaker defensively, than the previous teams.
I'll start with Stanford's offense. Stanford has an excellent offense, rated in the top 5 by most computer metrics. It is different from many explosive offenses, in that Stanford doesn't play a hurry-up, spread offense, like those at Oregon or in the Big 12. Rather, Stanford has a pro-style offense with diverse personnel groupings and lots of checks and reads at the line of scrimmage.
Christian McCaffrey is a wonderful skill player, arguably the most talented in the country (Pro Football Focus's scouts agree: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...yfield-bosa-lead-pffs-top-heisman-candidates/ He is an explosive running back with great vision and acceleration (his grandfather was the world record holder in the 100 yard dash, FYI -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Sime). McCaffrey is also an excellent receiver for a running back. He will return punts and kickoffs -- as a kickoff returner, McCaffrey is among the best in the country, that's why Stanford uses him on special teams, risking injury, despite his value on offense.
Stanford's quarterback is Kevin Hogan, a 3 1/2 year starter, who has matured into a very good quarterback (he is in the top 5 nationally in yards-per-attempt and QB rating). Hogan has had struggles with accuracy and inconsistency throughout his career, but he has been much improved this season (with the exception of a couple games, including Northwestern). Hogan is also a good runner/scrambler. Stanford will probably call designed QB runs and options for Hogan, while giving him the freedom to scramble.
Stanford also has an excellent offensive line (rated #1 by these guys: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...r-picks-for-college-footballs-biggest-awards/). It had 4 new starters and took a couple games (Northwestern, UCF) to gel, but now the line is very strong in both run and pass blocking. The strength of the line is the left side, with Kyle Murphy at tackle and Joshua Garnett, thought by many to be the best guard in the country. Stanford will run McCaffrey over the left side a lot. Stanford has shown some vulnerability giving sacks up over the right tackle, but it's a very good line.
Finally, Stanford has very good tight ends, led by Austin Hooper and Dalton Schultz. Hooper is a favorite third-down target for Hogan, in particular. If Iowa overcommits its safeties to the run, Stanford will try to take advantage with these tight ends. Stanford's receivers are the weakest link in the offense, although they are not bad by any measure. Michael Rector is a speedy downfield receiver, who has had issues with drops, but is finally maturing as a route runner and becoming more consistent in the last half of this year. Devon Cajuste is a big, relatively fast receiver who has been hurt most of the year but is finally getting healthy. Cajuste was Stanford's leading receiver last year. Trenton Irwin is a talented, but inexperienced freshman possession receiver.
At this point, you may think that the game is looking hopeless, or that I am just a Stanford homer. But Stanford's offense really is excellent -- you can make a decent argument that it is the best in the country. However, Stanford's defense is pretty mediocre, and that's where Iowa should place its hope, IMO.
For the past 5 years before this one, Stanford has had an excellent defense (top 15 each year according to FEI rankings, including rankings of 1st and 3rd). This year, by contrast, Stanford is rated 60th: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef As a Stanford fan, it's been an adjustment, but probably should have been expected given that Stanford was starting 9 new players on defense.
Stanford's plays a 3-4 defense. It will also play a lot of nickel, including with only 2 down linemen, against spread offenses, but you probably won't see much of that look.
Stanford's defensive line has 3 good starters but basically no depth behind that. Solomon Thomas is a redshirt freshman who filled in after the starter tore his ACL and plays a slightly-undersized nose tackle. Thomas has gotten much better as the season has gone on and is now one of the better players on Stanford's defense. Brennan Scarlett is a graduate transfer from Cal and plays at one end, while Aziz Shittu is an all-Pac 12 senior playing at the other end. All three players are good, but Stanford has basically no depth behind them and has to over play and tire out these linemen as a result.
At linebacker, the player who gets the most press is Blake Martinez. Martinez is not especially fast, but he is smart, tough, and a very good tackler. He led the pac-12 in tackles. The rest of Stanford's linebackers are either inexperienced, playing with injuries, or not especially athletic. As a result, Stanford has been vulnerable to fast and shifty backs who get to the second level and receivers if they get paired on linebackers. Between the linebackers and lack of d-line depth, Stanford also hasn't been able to develop as dominant a pass rush as it has had in recent years.
Stanford's secondary will be a strength of the team, but it isn't there yet. Stanford's best and most experienced corner (by far) is Ronnie Harris. Harris has been injured and missed the Oregon and Notre Dame games, but came back for half of the Pac-12 championship. The other corner is Alijah Holder, who is young but talented. He has also missed recent games with injury, but should be back for the Rose Bowl. Stanford has a number of other young but talented corners who will play in nickel and dime packages (or if there is an injury). At safety, Stanford plays two converted offensive players (from several years ago, but still), Kodi Whitfield and Dallas Lloyd. Both are prone to making mental mistakes on occasion, or being beat with athleticism or speed. As a result, Stanford has played a lot of bend-but-don't break defense, trying not to give up a big play and waiting for an offense to make a mistake, particularly in the red zone where passing windows are smaller and safeties can play closer up.
On special teams, Stanford has a great kicker and a good punter. McCaffrey is excellent at kickoff returns and good at punt returns. Stanford's kickoff/punt coverage is fine, but not as good as past years.
Lastly, I'll give my thoughts on the Northwestern game. It was probably Stanford's worst-played game of the season for a number of reasons. You hear a lot about the time-zone differences, but it's hard to determine how they affected Stanford's play. More importantly, IMO, Stanford's offense and offensive identity were still in flux. The offensive line had 4 new starters and wasn't playing as well as it is now. Stanford didn't realize how good McCaffrey was and he only got 12 carries (for 66 yards). Hogan did not play well, whether because of the o-line play, the offense still being in flux, or Northwestern's defense. Northwestern played well, but I think it's a mistake to credit Northwestern for all of Stanford's struggles. Stanford's offense also played poorly for the first half of its next game against terrible UCF. I think the offense was just figuring itself out.
Northwestern does have a great defense and did some things well, that other teams have tried to do. The first priority has to be stopping McCaffrey and the running game. This usually requires committing 8 or 9 players to the box, but otherwise McCaffrey will get 7-8 yards per carry and Stanford will never get off the field. Then, teams take their chances with Hogan throwing downfield against man-on-man coverage. That worked well for Northwestern because they have great corners and Hogan/the o-line didn't play well. It hasn't really worked since because Hogan's been great and Stanford has made some adjustments. Washington State did have some success in a rainstorm, and who knows, with El Nino there may another rainstorm at the Rose Bowl.
I hope this was helpful. I'm looking forward to the game and learning more about the Hawkeyes.
I've seen several threads asking if Stanford's offense is just McCaffrey and what Northwestern did to beat Stanford and thought I would give my perspective on Stanford's team. It is a team similar in strength, in my opinion, to the 2012 and 2013 Stanford teams that played in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin and Michigan State, but with a much different make up. 2015 Stanford is much better offensively and much weaker defensively, than the previous teams.
I'll start with Stanford's offense. Stanford has an excellent offense, rated in the top 5 by most computer metrics. It is different from many explosive offenses, in that Stanford doesn't play a hurry-up, spread offense, like those at Oregon or in the Big 12. Rather, Stanford has a pro-style offense with diverse personnel groupings and lots of checks and reads at the line of scrimmage.
Christian McCaffrey is a wonderful skill player, arguably the most talented in the country (Pro Football Focus's scouts agree: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...yfield-bosa-lead-pffs-top-heisman-candidates/ He is an explosive running back with great vision and acceleration (his grandfather was the world record holder in the 100 yard dash, FYI -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Sime). McCaffrey is also an excellent receiver for a running back. He will return punts and kickoffs -- as a kickoff returner, McCaffrey is among the best in the country, that's why Stanford uses him on special teams, risking injury, despite his value on offense.
Stanford's quarterback is Kevin Hogan, a 3 1/2 year starter, who has matured into a very good quarterback (he is in the top 5 nationally in yards-per-attempt and QB rating). Hogan has had struggles with accuracy and inconsistency throughout his career, but he has been much improved this season (with the exception of a couple games, including Northwestern). Hogan is also a good runner/scrambler. Stanford will probably call designed QB runs and options for Hogan, while giving him the freedom to scramble.
Stanford also has an excellent offensive line (rated #1 by these guys: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...r-picks-for-college-footballs-biggest-awards/). It had 4 new starters and took a couple games (Northwestern, UCF) to gel, but now the line is very strong in both run and pass blocking. The strength of the line is the left side, with Kyle Murphy at tackle and Joshua Garnett, thought by many to be the best guard in the country. Stanford will run McCaffrey over the left side a lot. Stanford has shown some vulnerability giving sacks up over the right tackle, but it's a very good line.
Finally, Stanford has very good tight ends, led by Austin Hooper and Dalton Schultz. Hooper is a favorite third-down target for Hogan, in particular. If Iowa overcommits its safeties to the run, Stanford will try to take advantage with these tight ends. Stanford's receivers are the weakest link in the offense, although they are not bad by any measure. Michael Rector is a speedy downfield receiver, who has had issues with drops, but is finally maturing as a route runner and becoming more consistent in the last half of this year. Devon Cajuste is a big, relatively fast receiver who has been hurt most of the year but is finally getting healthy. Cajuste was Stanford's leading receiver last year. Trenton Irwin is a talented, but inexperienced freshman possession receiver.
At this point, you may think that the game is looking hopeless, or that I am just a Stanford homer. But Stanford's offense really is excellent -- you can make a decent argument that it is the best in the country. However, Stanford's defense is pretty mediocre, and that's where Iowa should place its hope, IMO.
For the past 5 years before this one, Stanford has had an excellent defense (top 15 each year according to FEI rankings, including rankings of 1st and 3rd). This year, by contrast, Stanford is rated 60th: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef As a Stanford fan, it's been an adjustment, but probably should have been expected given that Stanford was starting 9 new players on defense.
Stanford's plays a 3-4 defense. It will also play a lot of nickel, including with only 2 down linemen, against spread offenses, but you probably won't see much of that look.
Stanford's defensive line has 3 good starters but basically no depth behind that. Solomon Thomas is a redshirt freshman who filled in after the starter tore his ACL and plays a slightly-undersized nose tackle. Thomas has gotten much better as the season has gone on and is now one of the better players on Stanford's defense. Brennan Scarlett is a graduate transfer from Cal and plays at one end, while Aziz Shittu is an all-Pac 12 senior playing at the other end. All three players are good, but Stanford has basically no depth behind them and has to over play and tire out these linemen as a result.
At linebacker, the player who gets the most press is Blake Martinez. Martinez is not especially fast, but he is smart, tough, and a very good tackler. He led the pac-12 in tackles. The rest of Stanford's linebackers are either inexperienced, playing with injuries, or not especially athletic. As a result, Stanford has been vulnerable to fast and shifty backs who get to the second level and receivers if they get paired on linebackers. Between the linebackers and lack of d-line depth, Stanford also hasn't been able to develop as dominant a pass rush as it has had in recent years.
Stanford's secondary will be a strength of the team, but it isn't there yet. Stanford's best and most experienced corner (by far) is Ronnie Harris. Harris has been injured and missed the Oregon and Notre Dame games, but came back for half of the Pac-12 championship. The other corner is Alijah Holder, who is young but talented. He has also missed recent games with injury, but should be back for the Rose Bowl. Stanford has a number of other young but talented corners who will play in nickel and dime packages (or if there is an injury). At safety, Stanford plays two converted offensive players (from several years ago, but still), Kodi Whitfield and Dallas Lloyd. Both are prone to making mental mistakes on occasion, or being beat with athleticism or speed. As a result, Stanford has played a lot of bend-but-don't break defense, trying not to give up a big play and waiting for an offense to make a mistake, particularly in the red zone where passing windows are smaller and safeties can play closer up.
On special teams, Stanford has a great kicker and a good punter. McCaffrey is excellent at kickoff returns and good at punt returns. Stanford's kickoff/punt coverage is fine, but not as good as past years.
Lastly, I'll give my thoughts on the Northwestern game. It was probably Stanford's worst-played game of the season for a number of reasons. You hear a lot about the time-zone differences, but it's hard to determine how they affected Stanford's play. More importantly, IMO, Stanford's offense and offensive identity were still in flux. The offensive line had 4 new starters and wasn't playing as well as it is now. Stanford didn't realize how good McCaffrey was and he only got 12 carries (for 66 yards). Hogan did not play well, whether because of the o-line play, the offense still being in flux, or Northwestern's defense. Northwestern played well, but I think it's a mistake to credit Northwestern for all of Stanford's struggles. Stanford's offense also played poorly for the first half of its next game against terrible UCF. I think the offense was just figuring itself out.
Northwestern does have a great defense and did some things well, that other teams have tried to do. The first priority has to be stopping McCaffrey and the running game. This usually requires committing 8 or 9 players to the box, but otherwise McCaffrey will get 7-8 yards per carry and Stanford will never get off the field. Then, teams take their chances with Hogan throwing downfield against man-on-man coverage. That worked well for Northwestern because they have great corners and Hogan/the o-line didn't play well. It hasn't really worked since because Hogan's been great and Stanford has made some adjustments. Washington State did have some success in a rainstorm, and who knows, with El Nino there may another rainstorm at the Rose Bowl.
I hope this was helpful. I'm looking forward to the game and learning more about the Hawkeyes.
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