Thoughts From a Stanford Fan

[j0nnyhb_Prime]

Thanks to the OP for a good informative post. I like Stanford, would rather be playing USC (as I don't care for them or their fans too much). Should be a good game. Go Hawks!

 

[lonhawk]

Nice long informative post op.... The line on this game -6.5 Stanford over Iowa with Iowa being the higher ranked team is status quo for the year.

All i need to know. Good luck! Go Hawks!

 

[Clermonthawk]

I think, and correct me if I'm wrong, when Stanford lost to NW, wasn't it NW's 1st game of the year as well.

 

[Pepperman]

MSU definitely has a better defense than Stanford. You should have more time to throw unless Stanford blitzes, in which case you should have some openings in the passing game especially underneath. My guess is that Stanford will keep its safeties back and try to prevent the big play. Stanford played tighter coverage v. USC, I think because they didn't want to let USC get its athletes with the ball in space. But my guess is you see Stanford allow short passes. If Iowa can consistently run the ball and string first downs together, you should be able to score some points. A big key may be your red zone offense and whether you can convert those drives into touchdowns v. field goals.

If you keep the safeties back, we may not even have to pass the ball. Hyperbole, of course (that means exaggeration for Hawk fans that don't know), but Iowa's running game should work out ok.

If you do keep us to short passes, that's a pretty good formula I'd say. Although Iowa does have a lot of quick WR screens in the playbook as well as TE into the flat type of routes. And we run them often.

Your last point is SPOT ON. We have to convert red zone opportunities into TDs. That is a universal truth (some may say an axiom) of Hawkeye football, but it is especially true in this game.

 

[gojojo]

No question Iowa has not seen a running back like McCaffrey this year, but there is also no question that Stanford has not seen a defense that hits like Iowa's or an offensive line that mauls like Iowa's.

 

[HawktimusPrime]

No question Iowa has not seen a running back like McCaffrey this year, but there is also no question that Stanford has not seen a defense that hits like Iowa's or an offensive line that mauls like Iowa's.

Agreed, Stanford lives and dies with McCaffrey. Take him out of the game, the game is won. Iowa is a team that relies on everyone, and there are lots of players who are able to step up and lead the way. Canzeri, Wadley, CJ, Vandeberg, the TE's, etc.

This is going to be a good game and it is very winnable in my opinion. I have a feeling the Iowa players will be coming into this game with a serious chip on their shoulders.

 

[Scherrman]

Being an Iowa fan who lives 15 minutes from Palo Alto, I'll say a few things:

1. Stanford has excellent coaching.
2. Stanford fans are nowhere near as rabid as Iowa fans.
3. The Stanford band is frickin' awesome. I can't wait to see what they do for their halftime show.
4. This is going to be a really good matchup. I'd say similar to the MSU game, it's too close to bet on (or maybe put another way, I'd take Iowa with 6.5 points because this game could go either way).

Isn't their band barred from traveling to away games? I'm not sure this is considered an away game but it's not a home game.

 

[icu81222]

Stanford will also be without there stud D coordinator Anderson as he will taking over in Provo Utah next week.. Probably one of best defensive minds in the game.. Turned down Michigan to stay in Palo Alto

That could be huge but it could work against iowa.

Iowa should have tons of video. Years worth. Particularly, because Northwestern spent all summer scouting them and NW will undoubtedly share all with iowa.

Having a new DC is unfortunate because all tendencies and schemes that had been scouted, now goes out the window.

Still the same players but a bit more of a guessing gsme as to what they will do.

 

[Scherrman]

Agreed, Stanford lives and dies with McCaffrey. Take him out of the game, the game is won. Iowa is a team that relies on everyone, and there are lots of players who are able to step up and lead the way. Canzeri, Wadley, CJ, Vandeberg, the TE's, etc.

This is going to be a good game and it is very winnable in my opinion. I have a feeling the Iowa players will be coming into this game with a serious chip on their shoulders.

Well...... I would say Iowa is a team that depends on CJ. Not near as much as Stanford relies on McCaffrey but if CJ were out it would be a whole different game for Iowa. I do agree with your post for the most part though.

 

[milehighhawkeye24]

If they have no depth at DL I would imagine that it is not Stanford running right at us, but us running right through them. Stanford offense is good, but IMO out defense matches up very well to their offense. Stanford's offense is probably the second best offense we will have faced all year, Indiana has much better offense IMO (especially when going against our defense). I am not worried about their running game, bur more so their ability to get their backs in space on the passing game.....however, this is where Nieman comes into play and I am not sure many OLB's in the country have the skillset that will allow him to at the very least minimize the RB's coming out of the backfield in the passing game

 

[HawktimusPrime]

Well...... I would say Iowa is a team that depends on CJ. Not near as much as Stanford relies on McCaffrey but if CJ were out it would be a whole different game for Iowa. I do agree with your post for the most part though.

You seem to forget that the 2nd String QB is the best player on the team.

 

[CaliHawkFan]

Agreed, Stanford lives and dies with McCaffrey. Take him out of the game, the game is won. Iowa is a team that relies on everyone, and there are lots of players who are able to step up and lead the way. Canzeri, Wadley, CJ, Vandeberg, the TE's, etc.

This is going to be a good game and it is very winnable in my opinion. I have a feeling the Iowa players will be coming into this game with a serious chip on their shoulders.

Notre Dame held McCaffery in check (if that's what you call holding someone to 96 yards on ground) but Hogan killed the Irish in the passing game. Stanford has proven it can win without a big game from McCaffery

 

[SoMplsHawkI]

First of all, congratulations on a great season and being selected for the Rose Bowl. I am looking forward to what should be a great game and a traditional Pac-12 (okay, Pac-10/-8)-Big Ten matchup.

I've seen several threads asking if Stanford's offense is just McCaffrey and what Northwestern did to beat Stanford and thought I would give my perspective on Stanford's team. It is a team similar in strength, in my opinion, to the 2012 and 2013 Stanford teams that played in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin and Michigan State, but with a much different make up. 2015 Stanford is much better offensively and much weaker defensively, than the previous teams.

I'll start with Stanford's offense. Stanford has an excellent offense, rated in the top 5 by most computer metrics. It is different from many explosive offenses, in that Stanford doesn't play a hurry-up, spread offense, like those at Oregon or in the Big 12. Rather, Stanford has a pro-style offense with diverse personnel groupings and lots of checks and reads at the line of scrimmage.

Christian McCaffrey is a wonderful skill player, arguably the most talented in the country (Pro Football Focus's scouts agree: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...yfield-bosa-lead-pffs-top-heisman-candidates/ He is an explosive running back with great vision and acceleration (his grandfather was the world record holder in the 100 yard dash, FYI -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Sime). McCaffrey is also an excellent receiver for a running back. He will return punts and kickoffs -- as a kickoff returner, McCaffrey is among the best in the country, that's why Stanford uses him on special teams, risking injury, despite his value on offense.

Stanford's quarterback is Kevin Hogan, a 3 1/2 year starter, who has matured into a very good quarterback (he is in the top 5 nationally in yards-per-attempt and QB rating). Hogan has had struggles with accuracy and inconsistency throughout his career, but he has been much improved this season (with the exception of a couple games, including Northwestern). Hogan is also a good runner/scrambler. Stanford will probably call designed QB runs and options for Hogan, while giving him the freedom to scramble.

Stanford also has an excellent offensive line (rated #1 by these guys: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...r-picks-for-college-footballs-biggest-awards/). It had 4 new starters and took a couple games (Northwestern, UCF) to gel, but now the line is very strong in both run and pass blocking. The strength of the line is the left side, with Kyle Murphy at tackle and Joshua Garnett, thought by many to be the best guard in the country. Stanford will run McCaffrey over the left side a lot. Stanford has shown some vulnerability giving sacks up over the right tackle, but it's a very good line.

Finally, Stanford has very good tight ends, led by Austin Hooper and Dalton Schultz. Hooper is a favorite third-down target for Hogan, in particular. If Iowa overcommits its safeties to the run, Stanford will try to take advantage with these tight ends. Stanford's receivers are the weakest link in the offense, although they are not bad by any measure. Michael Rector is a speedy downfield receiver, who has had issues with drops, but is finally maturing as a route runner and becoming more consistent in the last half of this year. Devon Cajuste is a big, relatively fast receiver who has been hurt most of the year but is finally getting healthy. Cajuste was Stanford's leading receiver last year. Trenton Irwin is a talented, but inexperienced freshman possession receiver.

At this point, you may think that the game is looking hopeless, or that I am just a Stanford homer. But Stanford's offense really is excellent -- you can make a decent argument that it is the best in the country. However, Stanford's defense is pretty mediocre, and that's where Iowa should place its hope, IMO.

For the past 5 years before this one, Stanford has had an excellent defense (top 15 each year according to FEI rankings, including rankings of 1st and 3rd). This year, by contrast, Stanford is rated 60th: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef As a Stanford fan, it's been an adjustment, but probably should have been expected given that Stanford was starting 9 new players on defense.

Stanford's plays a 3-4 defense. It will also play a lot of nickel, including with only 2 down linemen, against spread offenses, but you probably won't see much of that look.

Stanford's defensive line has 3 good starters but basically no depth behind that. Solomon Thomas is a redshirt freshman who filled in after the starter tore his ACL and plays a slightly-undersized nose tackle. Thomas has gotten much better as the season has gone on and is now one of the better players on Stanford's defense. Brennan Scarlett is a graduate transfer from Cal and plays at one end, while Aziz Shittu is an all-Pac 12 senior playing at the other end. All three players are good, but Stanford has basically no depth behind them and has to over play and tire out these linemen as a result.

At linebacker, the player who gets the most press is Blake Martinez. Martinez is not especially fast, but he is smart, tough, and a very good tackler. He led the pac-12 in tackles. The rest of Stanford's linebackers are either inexperienced, playing with injuries, or not especially athletic. As a result, Stanford has been vulnerable to fast and shifty backs who get to the second level and receivers if they get paired on linebackers. Between the linebackers and lack of d-line depth, Stanford also hasn't been able to develop as dominant a pass rush as it has had in recent years.

Stanford's secondary will be a strength of the team, but it isn't there yet. Stanford's best and most experienced corner (by far) is Ronnie Harris. Harris has been injured and missed the Oregon and Notre Dame games, but came back for half of the Pac-12 championship. The other corner is Alijah Holder, who is young but talented. He has also missed recent games with injury, but should be back for the Rose Bowl. Stanford has a number of other young but talented corners who will play in nickel and dime packages (or if there is an injury). At safety, Stanford plays two converted offensive players (from several years ago, but still), Kodi Whitfield and Dallas Lloyd. Both are prone to making mental mistakes on occasion, or being beat with athleticism or speed. As a result, Stanford has played a lot of bend-but-don't break defense, trying not to give up a big play and waiting for an offense to make a mistake, particularly in the red zone where passing windows are smaller and safeties can play closer up.

On special teams, Stanford has a great kicker and a good punter. McCaffrey is excellent at kickoff returns and good at punt returns. Stanford's kickoff/punt coverage is fine, but not as good as past years.

Lastly, I'll give my thoughts on the Northwestern game. It was probably Stanford's worst-played game of the season for a number of reasons. You hear a lot about the time-zone differences, but it's hard to determine how they affected Stanford's play. More importantly, IMO, Stanford's offense and offensive identity were still in flux. The offensive line had 4 new starters and wasn't playing as well as it is now. Stanford didn't realize how good McCaffrey was and he only got 12 carries (for 66 yards). Hogan did not play well, whether because of the o-line play, the offense still being in flux, or Northwestern's defense. Northwestern played well, but I think it's a mistake to credit Northwestern for all of Stanford's struggles. Stanford's offense also played poorly for the first half of its next game against terrible UCF. I think the offense was just figuring itself out.

Northwestern does have a great defense and did some things well, that other teams have tried to do. The first priority has to be stopping McCaffrey and the running game. This usually requires committing 8 or 9 players to the box, but otherwise McCaffrey will get 7-8 yards per carry and Stanford will never get off the field. Then, teams take their chances with Hogan throwing downfield against man-on-man coverage. That worked well for Northwestern because they have great corners and Hogan/the o-line didn't play well. It hasn't really worked since because Hogan's been great and Stanford has made some adjustments. Washington State did have some success in a rainstorm, and who knows, with El Nino there may another rainstorm at the Rose Bowl.

I hope this was helpful. I'm looking forward to the game and learning more about the Hawkeyes.

I think your best source for X's and O's information on the Hawks would be the Oniowa Podcast. It's recorded by Scott Docterman and Marc Morehouse of the Cedar Rapids Gazette and is available on SoundCloud, iTunes, Stitcher Radio, Overcast and Tunein among others.

 

[SanMateoHawk]

Isn't their band barred from traveling to away games? I'm not sure this is considered an away game but it's not a home game.

Darn it, you are right!

 

[eastbaykid]

If you keep the safeties back, we may not even have to pass the ball. Hyperbole, of course (that means exaggeration for Hawk fans that don't know), but Iowa's running game should work out ok.

If you do keep us to short passes, that's a pretty good formula I'd say. Although Iowa does have a lot of quick WR screens in the playbook as well as TE into the flat type of routes. And we run them often.

Your last point is SPOT ON. We have to convert red zone opportunities into TDs. That is a universal truth (some may say an axiom) of Hawkeye football, but it is especially true in this game.

I think Iowa should be able to run the ball against Stanford pretty well. My guess is that Stanford will allow Iowa to run and complete short passes (which Stanford covers pretty well) and wait for a run to get stuffed, a penalty, or other mistake that creates a punt/turnover. They will try to force Iowa to drive the field and not give up the big play. However, Stanford has given up more big plays this year than in years past, especially to fast/quick receivers and running backs.

No question Iowa has not seen a running back like McCaffrey this year, but there is also no question that Stanford has not seen a defense that hits like Iowa's or an offensive line that mauls like Iowa's.

Stanford played Washington and Northwestern, both of which have statistically better defenses than Iowa (Washington is #1 nationally -- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef). But Iowa is a better, more complete team than either. Washington and Northwestern have bad offenses.

Stanford hasn't played a great power running team (other than itself in practice). If you have a very good offensive line, you will be able to move the ball. I think Iowa will get its points.

Agreed, Stanford lives and dies with McCaffrey. Take him out of the game, the game is won. Iowa is a team that relies on everyone, and there are lots of players who are able to step up and lead the way. Canzeri, Wadley, CJ, Vandeberg, the TE's, etc.

This is going to be a good game and it is very winnable in my opinion. I have a feeling the Iowa players will be coming into this game with a serious chip on their shoulders.

Several teams have tried to play 9 in the box and stop McCaffrey, including Notre Dame and Oregon. Most of the time Hogan has had great success passing against a stacked box (check out his box scores from those games). But I still think that's a better option than letting McCaffrey run free.

Isn't their band barred from traveling to away games? I'm not sure this is considered an away game but it's not a home game.

The band will be there.

If they have no depth at DL I would imagine that it is not Stanford running right at us, but us running right through them. Stanford offense is good, but IMO out defense matches up very well to their offense. Stanford's offense is probably the second best offense we will have faced all year, Indiana has much better offense IMO (especially when going against our defense). I am not worried about their running game, bur more so their ability to get their backs in space on the passing game.....however, this is where Nieman comes into play and I am not sure many OLB's in the country have the skillset that will allow him to at the very least minimize the RB's coming out of the backfield in the passing game

Iowa probably will be able to run against Stanford. I think Stanford will try to limit big plays and tighten up in the red zone.

I think Stanford will be the best offense Iowa has seen (you will definitely have seen better defenses though). McCaffrey is really fast and quick (the fastest timed RB during Shaw's time at Stanford). I would not try to cover him with an OLB, but it looks like Niemann is a converted WR and may be pretty fast.

Notre Dame held McCaffery in check (if that's what you call holding someone to 96 yards on ground) but Hogan killed the Irish in the passing game. Stanford has proven it can win without a big game from McCaffery

That's right. Still, trying to stop McCaffrey is a good idea. In his really big games (UCLA, Cal, the second USC game), Stanford won going away.

I think your best source for X's and O's information on the Hawks would be the Oniowa Podcast. It's recorded by Scott Docterman and Marc Morehouse of the Cedar Rapids Gazette and is available on SoundCloud, iTunes, Stitcher Radio, Overcast and Tunein among others.

Thanks for the recommendation! I'll check it out.

 

[gojojo]

Just to point out Iowa's rushing attack, we gained 294 yards on the ground against Northwestern with both starting offensive tackles out of the line-up. With the first two options at running back out with injuries as well, our 3rd string running back, Akrum Wadley, put up 204 yards and 4 TD's, while the 4th string back, Derrick Mitchell, put up his season high of 79 yards and another score in mop up duty. I am told Northwestern has a geat rush D, but we absolutely carved them up with our backups. This has left some Iowa fans wondering if Wadley and true freshman O-Lineman, James Daniels, should be playing more.

 

[Suterman]

Indiana may have a more explosive offense than Stanford but they don't have anyone even close to McCaffrey. Not even close. Plus I would take Hogan over Sudfeld any day.

 

[hoffmkr]

This is a very good matchup for Iowa in a few ways. Iowa has some of the best run support DB in the nation in Lomax and King. That will help immensely against McCaffery.
Also, running a 3-4 against Iowa is a TERRIBLE Defense. With a zone blocking scheme, the OL is trying to get angles to open up big gaps. By default, you are going to have a guard and TE free EVERY play to get LBs. The two big runs against Nebraska are textbook blocking against 3-4 where you can kick one end out, seal LB and NG. (Yes NE ran a 4-3 but the way it was blocked holds true.) Also, Iowa's WR know how to block better than most teams TE. The games Iowa struggled to run were against NE and MSU who both had TWO huge DT who could force 3-4 blockers a lot of plays leaving their LB clean. Against NE, Iowa was still able to get big runs, just not the consistency. They also cause Iowa to get called for holding penalties because of their STR vs Iowa OL which is more on angles and technique. (They are strong but not Maulers who just plow through you.)

 

[yerpHAWK]

Indiana may have a more explosive offense than Stanford but they don't have anyone even close to McCaffrey. Not even close. Plus I would take Hogan over Sudfeld any day.

He wasn't Mccaffery, but Jordan Howard was pretty good. Most coveted RB of the offseason.

 

[DBQ Hawk]

He wasn't Mccaffery, but Jordan Howard was pretty good. Most coveted RB of the offseason.

I think when these two players go to the NFL, Howard will be the better player. The college game is different, of course, but Jordan Howard was the best RB in the Big 10 this year, but honestly if he played for Alabama, he'd probably win the Heisman, that's how good I think he might be.

Then again, Howard was killing us until he got dinged up, so McCaffrey could dominate us as well. Hope not, but he could.

 

[Eternal Return]

First of all, congratulations on a great season and being selected for the Rose Bowl. I am looking forward to what should be a great game and a traditional Pac-12 (okay, Pac-10/-8)-Big Ten matchup.

I've seen several threads asking if Stanford's offense is just McCaffrey and what Northwestern did to beat Stanford and thought I would give my perspective on Stanford's team. It is a team similar in strength, in my opinion, to the 2012 and 2013 Stanford teams that played in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin and Michigan State, but with a much different make up. 2015 Stanford is much better offensively and much weaker defensively, than the previous teams.

I'll start with Stanford's offense. Stanford has an excellent offense, rated in the top 5 by most computer metrics. It is different from many explosive offenses, in that Stanford doesn't play a hurry-up, spread offense, like those at Oregon or in the Big 12. Rather, Stanford has a pro-style offense with diverse personnel groupings and lots of checks and reads at the line of scrimmage.

Christian McCaffrey is a wonderful skill player, arguably the most talented in the country (Pro Football Focus's scouts agree: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...yfield-bosa-lead-pffs-top-heisman-candidates/ He is an explosive running back with great vision and acceleration (his grandfather was the world record holder in the 100 yard dash, FYI -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Sime). McCaffrey is also an excellent receiver for a running back. He will return punts and kickoffs -- as a kickoff returner, McCaffrey is among the best in the country, that's why Stanford uses him on special teams, risking injury, despite his value on offense.

Stanford's quarterback is Kevin Hogan, a 3 1/2 year starter, who has matured into a very good quarterback (he is in the top 5 nationally in yards-per-attempt and QB rating). Hogan has had struggles with accuracy and inconsistency throughout his career, but he has been much improved this season (with the exception of a couple games, including Northwestern). Hogan is also a good runner/scrambler. Stanford will probably call designed QB runs and options for Hogan, while giving him the freedom to scramble.

Stanford also has an excellent offensive line (rated #1 by these guys: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...r-picks-for-college-footballs-biggest-awards/). It had 4 new starters and took a couple games (Northwestern, UCF) to gel, but now the line is very strong in both run and pass blocking. The strength of the line is the left side, with Kyle Murphy at tackle and Joshua Garnett, thought by many to be the best guard in the country. Stanford will run McCaffrey over the left side a lot. Stanford has shown some vulnerability giving sacks up over the right tackle, but it's a very good line.

Finally, Stanford has very good tight ends, led by Austin Hooper and Dalton Schultz. Hooper is a favorite third-down target for Hogan, in particular. If Iowa overcommits its safeties to the run, Stanford will try to take advantage with these tight ends. Stanford's receivers are the weakest link in the offense, although they are not bad by any measure. Michael Rector is a speedy downfield receiver, who has had issues with drops, but is finally maturing as a route runner and becoming more consistent in the last half of this year. Devon Cajuste is a big, relatively fast receiver who has been hurt most of the year but is finally getting healthy. Cajuste was Stanford's leading receiver last year. Trenton Irwin is a talented, but inexperienced freshman possession receiver.

At this point, you may think that the game is looking hopeless, or that I am just a Stanford homer. But Stanford's offense really is excellent -- you can make a decent argument that it is the best in the country. However, Stanford's defense is pretty mediocre, and that's where Iowa should place its hope, IMO.

For the past 5 years before this one, Stanford has had an excellent defense (top 15 each year according to FEI rankings, including rankings of 1st and 3rd). This year, by contrast, Stanford is rated 60th: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef As a Stanford fan, it's been an adjustment, but probably should have been expected given that Stanford was starting 9 new players on defense.

Stanford's plays a 3-4 defense. It will also play a lot of nickel, including with only 2 down linemen, against spread offenses, but you probably won't see much of that look.

Stanford's defensive line has 3 good starters but basically no depth behind that. Solomon Thomas is a redshirt freshman who filled in after the starter tore his ACL and plays a slightly-undersized nose tackle. Thomas has gotten much better as the season has gone on and is now one of the better players on Stanford's defense. Brennan Scarlett is a graduate transfer from Cal and plays at one end, while Aziz Shittu is an all-Pac 12 senior playing at the other end. All three players are good, but Stanford has basically no depth behind them and has to over play and tire out these linemen as a result.

At linebacker, the player who gets the most press is Blake Martinez. Martinez is not especially fast, but he is smart, tough, and a very good tackler. He led the pac-12 in tackles. The rest of Stanford's linebackers are either inexperienced, playing with injuries, or not especially athletic. As a result, Stanford has been vulnerable to fast and shifty backs who get to the second level and receivers if they get paired on linebackers. Between the linebackers and lack of d-line depth, Stanford also hasn't been able to develop as dominant a pass rush as it has had in recent years.

Stanford's secondary will be a strength of the team, but it isn't there yet. Stanford's best and most experienced corner (by far) is Ronnie Harris. Harris has been injured and missed the Oregon and Notre Dame games, but came back for half of the Pac-12 championship. The other corner is Alijah Holder, who is young but talented. He has also missed recent games with injury, but should be back for the Rose Bowl. Stanford has a number of other young but talented corners who will play in nickel and dime packages (or if there is an injury). At safety, Stanford plays two converted offensive players (from several years ago, but still), Kodi Whitfield and Dallas Lloyd. Both are prone to making mental mistakes on occasion, or being beat with athleticism or speed. As a result, Stanford has played a lot of bend-but-don't break defense, trying not to give up a big play and waiting for an offense to make a mistake, particularly in the red zone where passing windows are smaller and safeties can play closer up.

On special teams, Stanford has a great kicker and a good punter. McCaffrey is excellent at kickoff returns and good at punt returns. Stanford's kickoff/punt coverage is fine, but not as good as past years.

Lastly, I'll give my thoughts on the Northwestern game. It was probably Stanford's worst-played game of the season for a number of reasons. You hear a lot about the time-zone differences, but it's hard to determine how they affected Stanford's play. More importantly, IMO, Stanford's offense and offensive identity were still in flux. The offensive line had 4 new starters and wasn't playing as well as it is now. Stanford didn't realize how good McCaffrey was and he only got 12 carries (for 66 yards). Hogan did not play well, whether because of the o-line play, the offense still being in flux, or Northwestern's defense. Northwestern played well, but I think it's a mistake to credit Northwestern for all of Stanford's struggles. Stanford's offense also played poorly for the first half of its next game against terrible UCF. I think the offense was just figuring itself out.

Northwestern does have a great defense and did some things well, that other teams have tried to do. The first priority has to be stopping McCaffrey and the running game. This usually requires committing 8 or 9 players to the box, but otherwise McCaffrey will get 7-8 yards per carry and Stanford will never get off the field. Then, teams take their chances with Hogan throwing downfield against man-on-man coverage. That worked well for Northwestern because they have great corners and Hogan/the o-line didn't play well. It hasn't really worked since because Hogan's been great and Stanford has made some adjustments. Washington State did have some success in a rainstorm, and who knows, with El Nino there may another rainstorm at the Rose Bowl.

I hope this was helpful. I'm looking forward to the game and learning more about the Hawkeyes.

Thanks for the great breakdown. You put a lot of work in that. Gives me a better idea of who Stanford is. Looking forward to a good game. Cheers.

 

[aflachawk]

Shut up ICHawk24. Good post.

I agree. The guy seems to have come in peace and imparted some great stuff. Thanks to the OP.

 

[hawkosx]

I can see I'm going to have to go buy a dictionary, encyclopedia set, and thesaurus if I want to talk football with the Stanford people over the next month.

I really hope you guys are being over the top sarcastic because any random Stanford fan dropping by Is going to think we only read at 4th grade level

 

[yerpHAWK]

I really hope you guys are being over the top sarcastic because any random Stanford fan dropping by Is going to think we only read at 4th grade level

Well we sure as hell don't want them knowing we actually read at a 1st grade level.

 

[iammrhawkeyes]

I really hope you guys are being over the top sarcastic because any random Stanford fan dropping by Is going to think we only read at 4th grade level

Not true. 6th grade level.

 

[meatloaf55]

you guys can read?!

 

[eastbaykid]

I agree. The guy seems to have come in peace and imparted some great stuff. Thanks to the OP.

I really hope you guys are being over the top sarcastic because any random Stanford fan dropping by Is going to think we only read at 4th grade level

Thanks, guys. I just wanted to talk some football during the long wait for the game. I thought my perspective on Stanford could give you some more information on our team and I could learn about Iowa. By the way, I like the Big Ten and think you generally do things the right way, including having lots of good academic schools. I'm glad to see the conference go to 9 games next year.

 

[Cushawk]

Well we sure as hell don't want them knowing we actually read at a 1st grade level.

Hokt on fonics werked fore me!

 

[HawkeyeMcNutt]

Thanks for the post and insight.

I believe I read that Northwestern was the only Top 30 Defense Stanford has played? (no time to look now, can later though. Kind of interesting, but as was well noted nationally, Iowa's schedule wasn't exactly a murderer's row full of top tier offenses either, so both the Stanford Offense and Iowa Defense statistics are probably a touch skewed.

I think a 31-27, 34-30 type of game is what it feels like this early. It's always tough to tell when teams get almost a month to prep; I'm excited that both teams should be able to get relatively healthy though. With both teams close to a full arsenal of players, an epic game (with a Hawkeye win) would be almost as fantastic as Iowa winning 63-21 and having a three hour party at the Rose Bowl throughout.

Any key Stanford injuries to note? Heard something about a LB missing USC game last week, but not sure if that was serious. Tweet I saw said he was the best defender, however.

 

[HawkeyeMcNutt]

That could be huge but it could work against iowa.

Iowa should have tons of video. Years worth. Particularly, because Northwestern spent all summer scouting them and NW will undoubtedly share all with iowa.

Having a new DC is unfortunate because all tendencies and schemes that had been scouted, now goes out the window.

Still the same players but a bit more of a guessing gsme as to what they will do.

If Stanford wants to try and completely change it's tendencies and schemes in three weeks, they are more than welcome to. I'd be willing to bet that 95 percent of what is on film will be consistent with how they play Iowa; there may be a small tweak here and there, but you're not going to completely change your tendencies and schemes at this point, especially when you won the Pac-12 with them.

 

[icu81222]

If Stanford wants to try and completely change it's tendencies and schemes in three weeks, they are more than welcome to. I'd be willing to bet that 95 percent of what is on film will be consistent with how they play Iowa; there may be a small tweak here and there, but you're not going to completely change your tendencies and schemes at this point, especially when you won the Pac-12 with them.

My post was based on if their DC left and wasn't coaching in the game. If that's the case, the chance of different tendencies and a few tweaks to scheme are very likely.

 

[Cardinal_2001]

First of all, congratulations on a great season and being selected for the Rose Bowl. I am looking forward to what should be a great game and a traditional Pac-12 (okay, Pac-10/-8)-Big Ten matchup.

I've seen several threads asking if Stanford's offense is just McCaffrey and what Northwestern did to beat Stanford and thought I would give my perspective on Stanford's team. It is a team similar in strength, in my opinion, to the 2012 and 2013 Stanford teams that played in the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin and Michigan State, but with a much different make up. 2015 Stanford is much better offensively and much weaker defensively, than the previous teams.

I'll start with Stanford's offense. Stanford has an excellent offense, rated in the top 5 by most computer metrics. It is different from many explosive offenses, in that Stanford doesn't play a hurry-up, spread offense, like those at Oregon or in the Big 12. Rather, Stanford has a pro-style offense with diverse personnel groupings and lots of checks and reads at the line of scrimmage.

Christian McCaffrey is a wonderful skill player, arguably the most talented in the country (Pro Football Focus's scouts agree: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...yfield-bosa-lead-pffs-top-heisman-candidates/ He is an explosive running back with great vision and acceleration (his grandfather was the world record holder in the 100 yard dash, FYI -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Sime). McCaffrey is also an excellent receiver for a running back. He will return punts and kickoffs -- as a kickoff returner, McCaffrey is among the best in the country, that's why Stanford uses him on special teams, risking injury, despite his value on offense.

Stanford's quarterback is Kevin Hogan, a 3 1/2 year starter, who has matured into a very good quarterback (he is in the top 5 nationally in yards-per-attempt and QB rating). Hogan has had struggles with accuracy and inconsistency throughout his career, but he has been much improved this season (with the exception of a couple games, including Northwestern). Hogan is also a good runner/scrambler. Stanford will probably call designed QB runs and options for Hogan, while giving him the freedom to scramble.

Stanford also has an excellent offensive line (rated #1 by these guys: https://www.profootballfocus.com/bl...r-picks-for-college-footballs-biggest-awards/). It had 4 new starters and took a couple games (Northwestern, UCF) to gel, but now the line is very strong in both run and pass blocking. The strength of the line is the left side, with Kyle Murphy at tackle and Joshua Garnett, thought by many to be the best guard in the country. Stanford will run McCaffrey over the left side a lot. Stanford has shown some vulnerability giving sacks up over the right tackle, but it's a very good line.

Finally, Stanford has very good tight ends, led by Austin Hooper and Dalton Schultz. Hooper is a favorite third-down target for Hogan, in particular. If Iowa overcommits its safeties to the run, Stanford will try to take advantage with these tight ends. Stanford's receivers are the weakest link in the offense, although they are not bad by any measure. Michael Rector is a speedy downfield receiver, who has had issues with drops, but is finally maturing as a route runner and becoming more consistent in the last half of this year. Devon Cajuste is a big, relatively fast receiver who has been hurt most of the year but is finally getting healthy. Cajuste was Stanford's leading receiver last year. Trenton Irwin is a talented, but inexperienced freshman possession receiver.

At this point, you may think that the game is looking hopeless, or that I am just a Stanford homer. But Stanford's offense really is excellent -- you can make a decent argument that it is the best in the country. However, Stanford's defense is pretty mediocre, and that's where Iowa should place its hope, IMO.

For the past 5 years before this one, Stanford has had an excellent defense (top 15 each year according to FEI rankings, including rankings of 1st and 3rd). This year, by contrast, Stanford is rated 60th: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef As a Stanford fan, it's been an adjustment, but probably should have been expected given that Stanford was starting 9 new players on defense.

Stanford's plays a 3-4 defense. It will also play a lot of nickel, including with only 2 down linemen, against spread offenses, but you probably won't see much of that look.

Stanford's defensive line has 3 good starters but basically no depth behind that. Solomon Thomas is a redshirt freshman who filled in after the starter tore his ACL and plays a slightly-undersized nose tackle. Thomas has gotten much better as the season has gone on and is now one of the better players on Stanford's defense. Brennan Scarlett is a graduate transfer from Cal and plays at one end, while Aziz Shittu is an all-Pac 12 senior playing at the other end. All three players are good, but Stanford has basically no depth behind them and has to over play and tire out these linemen as a result.

At linebacker, the player who gets the most press is Blake Martinez. Martinez is not especially fast, but he is smart, tough, and a very good tackler. He led the pac-12 in tackles. The rest of Stanford's linebackers are either inexperienced, playing with injuries, or not especially athletic. As a result, Stanford has been vulnerable to fast and shifty backs who get to the second level and receivers if they get paired on linebackers. Between the linebackers and lack of d-line depth, Stanford also hasn't been able to develop as dominant a pass rush as it has had in recent years.

Stanford's secondary will be a strength of the team, but it isn't there yet. Stanford's best and most experienced corner (by far) is Ronnie Harris. Harris has been injured and missed the Oregon and Notre Dame games, but came back for half of the Pac-12 championship. The other corner is Alijah Holder, who is young but talented. He has also missed recent games with injury, but should be back for the Rose Bowl. Stanford has a number of other young but talented corners who will play in nickel and dime packages (or if there is an injury). At safety, Stanford plays two converted offensive players (from several years ago, but still), Kodi Whitfield and Dallas Lloyd. Both are prone to making mental mistakes on occasion, or being beat with athleticism or speed. As a result, Stanford has played a lot of bend-but-don't break defense, trying not to give up a big play and waiting for an offense to make a mistake, particularly in the red zone where passing windows are smaller and safeties can play closer up.

On special teams, Stanford has a great kicker and a good punter. McCaffrey is excellent at kickoff returns and good at punt returns. Stanford's kickoff/punt coverage is fine, but not as good as past years.

Lastly, I'll give my thoughts on the Northwestern game. It was probably Stanford's worst-played game of the season for a number of reasons. You hear a lot about the time-zone differences, but it's hard to determine how they affected Stanford's play. More importantly, IMO, Stanford's offense and offensive identity were still in flux. The offensive line had 4 new starters and wasn't playing as well as it is now. Stanford didn't realize how good McCaffrey was and he only got 12 carries (for 66 yards). Hogan did not play well, whether because of the o-line play, the offense still being in flux, or Northwestern's defense. Northwestern played well, but I think it's a mistake to credit Northwestern for all of Stanford's struggles. Stanford's offense also played poorly for the first half of its next game against terrible UCF. I think the offense was just figuring itself out.

Northwestern does have a great defense and did some things well, that other teams have tried to do. The first priority has to be stopping McCaffrey and the running game. This usually requires committing 8 or 9 players to the box, but otherwise McCaffrey will get 7-8 yards per carry and Stanford will never get off the field. Then, teams take their chances with Hogan throwing downfield against man-on-man coverage. That worked well for Northwestern because they have great corners and Hogan/the o-line didn't play well. It hasn't really worked since because Hogan's been great and Stanford has made some adjustments. Washington State did have some success in a rainstorm, and who knows, with El Nino there may another rainstorm at the Rose Bowl.

I hope this was helpful. I'm looking forward to the game and learning more about the Hawkeyes.

Excellent summary of our team with one significant correction. The right tackle was the only new starter on the offensive line. Murphy, Garnett, Schuler, and Caspers all started last year.

I have no excuses for our Northwestern performance -we lost. That said, we learned not to wake up at 4:45 am to begin our pregame walkthrough for a game beginning at 9:00 am. We were a step and a thought too slow the entire game and Northwestern played well. For the unusually early conference game versus Colorado, we went through the pregame walkthrough the night before. Sleep is simply too valuable to be overlooked regardless of one's ability or skill in any vocation.

 

[CowboyIndian]

We destroyed NW by 30, while I hear nothing but excuses about your game there. You lost. Period.

We'll see what happens in Pasadena.

Down, boy. He said folks didn't play well, which doesn't sound like an excuse to me.

 

[icu81222]

Excellent summary of our team with one significant correction. The right tackle was the only new starter on the offensive line. Murphy, Garnett, Schuler, and Caspers all started last year.

I have no excuses for our Northwestern performance -we lost. That said, we learned not to wake up at 4:45 am to begin our pregame walkthrough for a game beginning at 9:00 am. We were a step and a thought too slow the entire game and Northwestern played well. For the unusually early conference game versus Colorado, we went through the pregame walkthrough the night before. Sleep is simply too valuable to be overlooked regardless of one's ability or skill in any vocation.

It was an 11am start.

 

[cruhawk]

Well...... I would say Iowa is a team that depends on CJ. Not near as much as Stanford relies on McCaffrey but if CJ were out it would be a whole different game for Iowa. I do agree with your post for the most part though.

Well....yeah, he IS the starting QB...so there is that.

 

[CowboyIndian]

It was an 11am start.

11 AM (CT) = 9 AM (PT)

 

[eastbaykid]

Excellent summary of our team with one significant correction. The right tackle was the only new starter on the offensive line. Murphy, Garnett, Schuler, and Caspers all started last year.

I have no excuses for our Northwestern performance -we lost. That said, we learned not to wake up at 4:45 am to begin our pregame walkthrough for a game beginning at 9:00 am. We were a step and a thought too slow the entire game and Northwestern played well. For the unusually early conference game versus Colorado, we went through the pregame walkthrough the night before. Sleep is simply too valuable to be overlooked regardless of one's ability or skill in any vocation.

You're right, I forgot about that. We lost our left tackle (Peat) to the draft, moved the RT to LT and the other positions stayed the same. Maybe it's not a coincidence that the RT has been Stanford's post problematic position on the line.

 

[icu81222]

11 AM (CT) = 9 AM (PT)

Oh, I understood that all along. It's just a pathetic excuse.

 

[whatsup13579er]

Very good OP. Thread was tl;dr most of it but here is my 2 cents.

I saw a couple posts that mentioned teams putting 9 guys in the box to stop McCaffery. Iowa's safeties are very good at coming up in run support without having to stack the box. Stanford hasn't played a team that hits like Iowa does. I can't imagine how sore those boys were after the B1G Championship. That was a fun, old school football game. I expect the Rose Bowl to be similar but with more points scored.

I've stayed up late and watched Stanford a few times. Their offense is fun to watch. I hate watching the Big12/Pac12 because it's more like watching a track meet than a football game, but not Stanford. They line up and play big boy football. Their tight splits on short yardage plays really intrigues me. Hogan reminds me a lot of the Wisky QBs over the years (not Russell). Not flashy, can move the sticks, gets them into the right play, and let the playmakers win the game. Hopefully he can channel his old self and give Iowa the ball a couple of times. Iowa's D will win some battles and Stanford's O will get theirs.

Stanford's defense is were the Rose Bowl is won or lost. A couple of the games I watched, I thought to myself, 'Iowa could run for 350 yards on these guys.' If Iowa can pound the ball with success, Iowa wins by a couple scores. If Stanford's D can nut up and force Iowa to throw it will be a close ball game.

 

[cruhawk]

Very good OP. Thread was tl;dr most of it but here is my 2 cents.

I saw a couple posts that mentioned teams putting 9 guys in the box to stop McCaffery. Iowa's safeties are very good at coming up in run support without having to stack the box. Stanford hasn't played a team that hits like Iowa does. I can't imagine how sore those boys were after the B1G Championship. That was a fun, old school football game. I expect the Rose Bowl to be similar but with more points scored.

I've stayed up late and watched Stanford a few times. Their offense is fun to watch. I hate watching the Big12/Pac12 because it's more like watching a track meet than a football game, but not Stanford. They line up and play big boy football. Their tight splits on short yardage plays really intrigues me. Hogan reminds me a lot of the Wisky QBs over the years (not Russell). Not flashy, can move the sticks, gets them into the right play, and let the playmakers win the game. Hopefully he can channel his old self and give Iowa the ball a couple of times. Iowa's D will win some battles and Stanford's O will get theirs.

Stanford's defense is were the Rose Bowl is won or lost. A couple of the games I watched, I thought to myself, 'Iowa could run for 350 yards on these guys.' If Iowa can pound the ball with success, Iowa wins by a couple scores. If Stanford's D can nut up and force Iowa to throw it will be a close ball game.

I would guess that a typical Stanford team (not sure how "typical" the '15 version is) is as much like a B1G team as any in the PAC 12. Probably the only team there that puts such a premium on defense & running the ball.