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Tom Brands Coached Teams can no longer compete with Penn St.

I would probably go with 3-4 Champs too, but they could realistically have EIGHT finalists! That is crazy to me....

125: Lil' is beatable, but, with the right draw, he could get there.
133: Davis-He is solid, but 133 has some full sized pitbulls..
141: Bartlett-I expect him to get there, but Mendez is flat out BETTER>
149: Van Ness-I still think he is the best guy at the way, regardless of what happened against Lovett.
157: Kasak-Shapiro is still the guy to me at this weight and I would still pick a healthy, NCAA version of Teemer to win(big if).
165: Mesenbrink-Short of injury, he ain't losing...
174: Haines- He will almost certainly have to beat Hamiti multiple times to get his best path to the finals and/or not possibly end up on the same side as O'Toole. Still, I would favor him to get there.
184: Starocci-Lock it in. Parker has a puncher's chance, but I would definitely consider Starocci a solid favorite.
197: Barr-The kid is tough as they come, but I think the top 3(AJ, Buch and Cardenas) big brother him a bit, as long as their gas tanks are sound in the 3rd....
285: Kerkvliet-About as big a lock as you can get to make a Finals, with about the worst odds you can have to actually win it.

If I had to pick now, I would go:

125-5th
133-R12
141-2nd
149-1st
157-3rd
165-1st
174-2nd
184-1st
197-4th
285-2nd
This is pretty fair. At 125, Lilledahl is an X-factor because he's just finding his groove. We never saw anything like the offensive outburst he had against Cruz. If he keeps wrestling like that, his odds go up, although Ramos looks like a solid favorite right now. At 141, I don't expect Bartlett to beat either Mendez or Alirez based on what I've seen so far, so I'll say 3rd. At 149, Van Ness - Lovett in the B1Gs will be telling whether the dual match was a fluke or not going in to nationals. Lovett was fantastic in that one, though, and looked every bit the part of a champion. At 157, I don't know about Shapiro in a tournament setting. He seems to struggle with health and whatever else in big tournaments. We'll see. Kasak isn't a clear favorite either way, though. At 174, I think Haines will beat Keegan in the rematch. That match was as close as two guys can be, coming down to the best scramble of the season in SV1 where both guys had multiple chances to finish it until KOT finally did. That could clearly go either way, and the PSU guys usually figure out how to win those rematches. At 184, Keck is good enough to be champ in a normal year, but I agree, I don't see Starocci losing. The All-Star match was razor thin, though, so it's not written in stone yet. I think I'd set the over-under at 3 as well with Mesenbrink and 2 out of 3 of SVN, Haines, and Starocci (with Starocci and Haines the most likely).
 
This is pretty fair. At 125, Lilledahl is an X-factor because he's just finding his groove. We never saw anything like the offensive outburst he had against Cruz. If he keeps wrestling like that, his odds go up, although Ramos looks like a solid favorite right now. At 141, I don't expect Bartlett to beat either Mendez or Alirez based on what I've seen so far, so I'll say 3rd. At 149, Van Ness - Lovett in the B1Gs will be telling whether the dual match was a fluke or not going in to nationals. Lovett was fantastic in that one, though, and looked every bit the part of a champion. At 157, I don't know about Shapiro in a tournament setting. He seems to struggle with health and whatever else in big tournaments. We'll see. Kasak isn't a clear favorite either way, though. At 174, I think Haines will beat Keegan in the rematch. That match was as close as two guys can be, coming down to the best scramble of the season in SV1 where both guys had multiple chances to finish it until KOT finally did. That could clearly go either way, and the PSU guys usually figure out how to win those rematches. At 184, Keck is good enough to be champ in a normal year, but I agree, I don't see Starocci losing. The All-Star match was razor thin, though, so it's not written in stone yet. I think I'd set the over-under at 3 as well with Mesenbrink and 2 out of 3 of SVN, Haines, and Starocci (with Starocci and Haines the most likely).
Yeah, I didn't even account for Alirez. Shame on me for that. Otherwise, I am pretty confident with where I put everyone. You can say that PSU has a great track record, but it isn't like KOT doesn't. A lot of smoke that he was at considerably less than 100% at NCAA's last year, or I think he would be riding a pretty solid win streak with 3 NCAA Titles in a row.

I am a big fan of Haines, but O'Toole is a Folkstyle savant. That isn't to say that Haines can't beat him, but I do think O'Toole is every bit as much the favorite as Starocci is over Parker...
 
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I would probably go with 3-4 Champs too, but they could realistically have EIGHT finalists! That is crazy to me....

125: Lil' is beatable, but, with the right draw, he could get there.
133: Davis-He is solid, but 133 has some full sized pitbulls..
141: Bartlett-I expect him to get there, but Mendez is flat out BETTER>
149: Van Ness-I still think he is the best guy at the way, regardless of what happened against Lovett.
157: Kasak-Shapiro is still the guy to me at this weight and I would still pick a healthy, NCAA version of Teemer to win(big if).
165: Mesenbrink-Short of injury, he ain't losing...
174: Haines- He will almost certainly have to beat Hamiti multiple times to get his best path to the finals and/or not possibly end up on the same side as O'Toole. Still, I would favor him to get there.
184: Starocci-Lock it in. Parker has a puncher's chance, but I would definitely consider Starocci a solid favorite.
197: Barr-The kid is tough as they come, but I think the top 3(AJ, Buch and Cardenas) big brother him a bit, as long as their gas tanks are sound in the 3rd....
285: Kerkvliet-About as big a lock as you can get to make a Finals, with about the worst odds you can have to actually win it.

If I had to pick now, I would go:

125-5th
133-R12
141-2nd
149-1st
157-3rd
165-1st
174-2nd
184-1st
197-4th
285-2nd
Seems objective at this point in the season. Might want to check your math on the 174 narrative, though. My money is on Haines facing Hamiti zero times before the NCAA brackets are set.
 
Seems objective at this point in the season. Might want to check your math on the 174 narrative, though. My money is on Haines facing Hamiti zero times before the NCAA brackets are set.
B1G's was on my brain, even though I know he is now at OkState instead of Wisconsin. But, that doesn't make what I said entirely untrue. A large point of it was, to make the Finals, he would most likely either need to beat Hamiti at NCAA's or almost certainly be on the same side as O'Toole making his road to the Finals really hard, assuming O'Toole at the 1 seed and therefore Haines and Hamiti being some combination of the 2 and 3 seeds.

That is what I get for not looking at a schedule before posting this...research is your friend!
 
Hmm, now I have to go back and read what he wrote:)
Hmm, don't limit yourself. Reading what I write can only make you stronger! ;)

Oh, and I even messed 2 small things up. I forgot about Alirez and I brainfarted into thinking Hamiti would still see Haines at B1G's even though he is at OkState now. For some reason the fact that Iowa still always wrestle OkState somehow made me think Haines will as well. An epic fail on the transitive property front!
 
Seems objective at this point in the season. Might want to check your math on the 174 narrative, though. My money is on Haines facing Hamiti zero times before the NCAA brackets are set.
Did you mean to say "subjective"? I am pretty sure, even though I am always correct ;), that it is only my opinion and there is no actual concrete data that would solely support my choices....
 
Did you mean to say "subjective"? I am pretty sure, even though I am always correct ;), that it is only my opinion and there is no actual concrete data that would solely support my choices....
“less than egregiously biased”
 
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