A few thoughts.
1) There is a lot of season left. Even the most loyal (and realistic) ISU fan isn't thinking CFP.
2) ISUs weak schedule?
Remaining teams have a combined record of 26-15 (63%). 2 ranked teams (Utah and K State). Hardly weak.
3) Clowns? They won at Kinnick. You can say Iowa "pissed it away" with 2 FGs instead of 2 TDs The "Clowns" made the plays to stop Iowa in both situations.
4) The committee is going to do everything they can to get "their 12 teams" in. Meaning, I expect them to screw over some teams in favor of the SEC + Big 10. We can debate all day on this, but IF (a HUGE HUGE HUGE if) ISU is somehow 12-1 and their only loss is in the Big 12 Championship game, I think they are left out in favor of a 9-3 SEC/Big 10 team. Is a 9-3 Ole Miss or Oregon (for example) better than Iowa State? Probably. No matter the number (4, 12, or 16), there will always be controversy + debate.
Anyway, big game this week vs Baylor. Winnable game, but I've seen enough ISU games to not get overconfident. Cautiously optimistic is the best approach for Cyclone fans.