Trump leads Biden 47%-41% with 8% undecided in new Harvard CAPS-Harris post debate poll

[Franisdaman]

The first Presidential debate was Thursday, June 27.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll. This survey was conducted from June 28 to 30 and surveyed 2,090 registered voters.

Besides showing Trump leading Biden by 6 points, the survey also showed that 72% of respondents have decided whom they will vote for in the November presidential election.

Link to the full story:

MSN

 

[Funky Bunch]

Is Chis still taking deep breaths?

 

[Franisdaman]

Is Chis still taking deep breaths?

Biden's camp should probably circle the wagons, be very strict in how they communicate moving forward & do the following (at a minimum) over the next 4 months:

* Cancel the next debate
* Run a TON of ads
* Read from a teleprompter at rallies and do not go off script
* Avoid answering questions (from reporters, etc)

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

The thing is, Trump never seems to get at or above 50%. He still has that hard ceiling no matter the issues with Biden.

It's going to be a really close election even if Joe stays in which looks likely.

 

[hawkeye54545]

Is Chis still taking deep breaths?

It is comical that unhinged lunatic is the one telling people that

 

[Franisdaman]

The thing is, Trump never seems to get at or above 50%. He still has that hard ceiling no matter the issues with Biden.

It's going to be a really close election even if Joe stays in which looks likely.

Everything I have seen is that for there to be a change at the top of the ticket, Joe would have to drop out, which doesn't look likely.

It will be Trump vs Biden in November.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Everything I have seen is that for there to be a change at the top of the ticket, Joe would have to drop out, which doesn't look likely.

It will be Trump vs Biden in November.

I agree. Joe can win but it's gonna be extremely close. Closer than it needed to be if some responsible actions had been taken from the get go. ie one term president with a viable heir apparent as VP. That should have always been the plan....

Joe saves democracy in 2020 and turns over the reigns in 2024. Hero of the Republic.

 

[BustingNarratives]

The thing is, Trump never seems to get at or above 50%. He still has that hard ceiling no matter the issues with Biden.

It's going to be a really close election even if Joe stays in which looks likely.

I think 3rd Party candidates could get close to 10% of the popular vote in November. Maybe more. Basically a protest vote to the binary choice they are offered by the two major parties. The winner of this election probably won’t hit the 50% mark. Clinton won with 43% and 370 EC votes.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I think 3rd Party candidates could get close to 10% of the popular vote in November. Maybe more. Basically a protest vote to the binary choice they are offered by the two major parties. The winner of this election probably won’t hit the 50% mark. Clinton won with 43% and 370 EC votes.

That's Trumps pathway for the W. Folks unwilling to vote for Trump but also unwilling to vote for Joe.

It's a toss up and didn't need to be this close if the Biden family was willing to put country before power. Power is pretty addictive apparently...

 

[noleclone2]

It was 49-43 in May…so not something new.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HHP_May2024_KeyResults.pdf

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

Percentage of the popular vote doesn't matter. It's about who wins the handful of swing states still in play.

 

[Here_4_a_Day]

Everything I have seen is that for there to be a change at the top of the ticket, Joe would have to drop out, which doesn't look likely.

It will be Trump vs Biden in November.

What will the noob use for campaign funds if he does dropout? 🪴

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

Republicans have lost the popular vote for every election since 1988, except in 2004.

The popular vote doesn't matter. Maybe it should. But it doesn't.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

What will the noob use for campaign funds if he does dropout? 🪴

The donors will pull their funds from the Biden campaign and will drop a shitload of cash on the new candidate within a week. There's a pretty big incentive for them and it's name is Trump.

The $$$ argument is a red herring. The new candidate would be flush with cash quickly.

 

[Here_4_a_Day]

How badly does one have to hate this country to vote for any democrat after being gaslighted for four years? JFC…get some self respect! 💩🦭

 

[OrlandNole]

That's Trumps pathway for the W. Folks unwilling to vote for Trump but also unwilling to vote for Joe.

It's a toss up and didn't need to be this close if the Biden family was willing to put country before power. Power is pretty addictive apparently...

As someone who voted third party in 2012 and 2016 and Biden in 2020, it would take a lot for me to vote third part instead of Biden in 2024. For example, if extremely unethical, unconstitutional or illegal activities came to light, essentially putting Biden on the same plane as Trump. That said, I'll probably go back to third party in 2028.

 

[Here_4_a_Day]

The donors will pull their funds from the Biden campaign and will drop a shitload of cash on the new candidate within a week. There's a pretty big incentive for them and it's name is Trump.

The $$$ argument is a red herring. The new candidate would be flush with cash quickly.

If you think that would/could happen given the givens, you’re no smarter than @Chishawk1425. Christ, donors are already asking for a refund since the debate.

 

[Flie]

I agree. Joe can win but it's gonna be extremely close. Closer than it needed to be if some responsible actions had been taken from the get go. ie one term president with a viable heir apparent as VP. That should have always been the plan....

Joe saves democracy in 2020 and turns over the reigns in 2024. Hero of the Republic.

You know only one side would view him in that way in the scenario you outlined. The other side would be busy talking about how the country was falling apart and how the heir apparent will be our doom.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

As someone who voted third party in 2012 and 2016 and Biden in 2020, it would take a lot for me to vote third part instead of Biden in 2024. For example, if extremely unethical, unconstitutional or illegal activities came to light, essentially putting Biden on the same plane as Trump. That said, I'll probably go back to third party in 2028.

Reasonable.

The argument to vote Biden v third party gets weaker by the day unfortunately.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

If you think that would/could happen given the givens, you’re no smarter than @Chishawk1425. Christ, donors are already asking for a refund since the debate.

Yes, and they'll dump it on the replacement candidate. They won't be short of cash.

Trump does that to Dem donors...

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

You know only one side would view him in that way in the scenario you outlined. The other side would be busy talking about how the country was falling apart and how the heir apparent will be our doom.

So what? They always say that, nothing new.

 

[Here_4_a_Day]

The donors will pull their funds from the Biden campaign and will drop a shitload of cash on the new candidate within a week. There's a pretty big incentive for them and it's name is Trump.

The $$$ argument is a red herring. The new candidate would be flush with cash quickly.

“A top campaign official held a phone call with Biden's top donors on Sunday and stated that if Biden were to drop out of the race, all his funds would go to Vice President Kamala Harris. Some of the donors went so far as to ask for refunds, according to NBC News.“

 

[Here_4_a_Day]

Yes, and they'll dump it on the replacement candidate. They won't be short of cash.

Trump does that to Dem donors...

Sounds like it:

A top campaign official held a phone call with Biden's top donors on Sunday and stated that if Biden were to drop out of the race, all his funds would go to Vice President Kamala Harris. Some of the donors went so far as to ask for refunds, according to NBC News.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Sounds like it:

A top campaign official held a phone call with Biden's top donors on Sunday and stated that if Biden were to drop out of the race, all his funds would go to Vice President Kamala Harris. Some of the donors went so far as to ask for refunds, according to NBC News.

The bolded is the kicker. That's the Biden campaign talking point for staying the course with Joe.

If he stepped aside and a replacement not named Kamala was put forward they'd be flush with cash within a week.

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

It's a shame Tulsi Gabbard seems to have drifted off into MAGA-adjacency over the last few years. At one point, she would have been the perfect Biden replacement. In fact, she should have been the Democratic nominee.

Instead, she may be Trump's running mate. I don't see how a barely-functioning Biden beats a Trump/Gabbard ticket.

 

[Franisdaman]

That's Trumps pathway for the W. Folks unwilling to vote for Trump but also unwilling to vote for Joe.

It's a toss up and didn't need to be this close if the Biden family was willing to put country before power. Power is pretty addictive apparently...

I think some other things are at play:

* Pride.
* Biden wants to serve the maximum 8 years
* He wants to be the person to beat Trump twice

 

[Franisdaman]

What will the noob use for campaign funds if he does dropout? 🪴

I saw that. If Biden does drop out, the money in the war chest goes to Harris.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I think some other things are at play:

* Pride.
* Biden wants to serve the maximum 8 years
* He wants to be the person to beat Trump twice

absolutely

Unfortunately his family/inner circle is pushing this.

 

[Huey Grey]

Polls are meaningless especially this far out. They showed a tight race before the debate. They show a tight race after. Maybe a couple weeks out from the election you can start paying attention to polls. But right now it's a waste of energy.

 

[KFsdisciple]

How about that Joe actually does have a 6 handicap

 

[KFsdisciple]

Biden's camp should probably circle the wagons, be very strict in how they communicate moving forward & do the following (at a minimum) over the next 4 months:

* Cancel the next debate
* Run a TON of ads
* Read from a teleprompter at rallies and do not go off script
* Avoid answering questions (from reporters, etc)

So change nothing lol

 

[KFsdisciple]

The thing is, Trump never seems to get at or above 50%. He still has that hard ceiling no matter the issues with Biden.

It's going to be a really close election even if Joe stays in which looks likely.

Trump isn't losing support, Biden is... it took an all time record beating, record breaking vote tally to beat Trump last time. He's probably good for 60+ million this time... I don't know if Joe has that many this time around.

 

[Franisdaman]

So change nothing lol

well, there is a debate planned for September....

 

[Hawk_4shur]

The idea of Trump as POTUS unfettered by the rule of law is chilling, but it's starting to look more and more like it's going to happen. Once he gets all his minions in place he'll be able to do whatever he wants.

I can't believe that's what the country wants.

 

[Rifler]

The country doesn't want Joe Biden...

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Trump isn't losing support, Biden is... it took an all time record beating, record breaking vote tally to beat Trump last time. He's probably good for 60+ million this time... I don't know if Joe has that many this time around.

Show me a poll where Trump hits 50% nationally. I haven't seen one.

His ceiling is extremely hard. Biden is bleeding support, no doubt, and Trump could very well win. But this 47% to 41% poll that was cited earlier...where is the other 12% going? That's the question.

 

[Franisdaman]

The idea of Trump as POTUS unfettered by the rule of law is chilling, but it's starting to look more and more like it's going to happen. Once he gets all his minions in place he'll be able to do whatever he wants.

I can't believe that's what the country wants.

It seems like a lot of countries are moving to the right....just look at France as one example....

In the USA, the economy & the border are 2 big issues that are motivating tens of millions of people to vote for Trump. Will Trump win? We'll see....

 

[Rifler]

What's going to kill Joe isn't Biden voters moving towards Trump,.. It's going to be Biden voters staying home...

 

[Franisdaman]

Show me a poll where Trump hits 50% nationally. I haven't seen one.

His ceiling is extremely hard. Biden is bleeding support, no doubt, and Trump could very well win. But this 47% to 41% poll that was cited earlier...where is the other 12% going? That's the question.

47% Trump
41% Biden
8% Undecided
4% Other (Kennedy, etc)
..............................
100% total
===========

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

What's going to kill Joe isn't Biden voters moving towards Trump,.. It's going to be Biden voters staying home...

...and protest votes.