Trump proposals could drain Social Security in 6 years, budget group says

[h-hawk]

The Social Security trust funds will be insolvent by Fiscal Year (FY) 2034, according to projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), at which point the law calls for a 23 percent cut in benefits.1 Restoring solvency over the next 75 years would require the equivalent of reducing all future benefits by 24 percent or increasing revenue by 35 percent.


Vice President Kamala Harris has said she would “protect Social Security” and former President Donald Trump has said he would “fight for and protect Social Security.” Unfortunately, neither candidate has presented plans to fix Social Security’s finances despite the looming $16,500 cut facing a typical couple retiring just before insolvency.


In fact, we find President Trump’s campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances.2


President Trump’s proposals to eliminate taxation of Social Security benefits, end taxes on tips and overtime, impose tariffs, and expand deportations would all widen Social Security’s cash deficits. Under our central estimate, we find that President Trump’s agenda would:

• Increase Social Security’s ten-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion through FY 2035.
• Advance insolvency by three years, from FY 2034 to FY 2031 – hastening the next President’s insolvency timeline by one-third.
• Lead to a 33 percent across-the-board benefit cut in 2035, up from the 23 percent CBO projects under current law.
• Increase Social Security’s annual shortfall by roughly 50 percent in FY 2035, from 3.6 to 4 percent of payroll.
• Require the equivalent of reducing current law benefits by about one-third or increasing revenue by about one-half to restore 75-year solvency.

What Would the Trump Campaign Plans Mean for Social Security? | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

2024-10-21-The Trump campaign plans would increase Social Security's ten-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion, make the program insolvent by 2031, increase Social Security's annual shortfall by 50 percent, and lead to a 33 percent across-the-board benefit cut by 2035.

www.crfb.org

 

[seminole97]

How is it a Ponzi scheme? It's hard to keep up with the stupid shit the right says. This is an example.

A Ponzi scheme is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors.

There is not sufficient investment of 'contributions' to match promised outlays.

That's why there have been 21 tax hikes so far to keep it creaking along. A private Ponzi would have blown up long ago, and no future 'investors' would be found to be fleeced - but we don't get a choice.

As it stands now, the 'trust fund' will exhaust in 2034, and payroll tax receipts will amount to ~77% of promised outlays.
Current law says outlays can only be made from contributions.

The problem with more tax increases is that the system is already a net negative for anyone born after 1975. At scheduled benefits they're not going to get a dollar for each dollar paid in.

 

[luvmyhawks]

Listen, I can tell you all what not do financially. That is not the point. Social Security was a promise made by the government. It is only now that the wealthy bitch about it when if it wasn't for SS their ancestors would not have procreated them.

Still haven't heard a a valid argument of capping social security wage tax. Because the rich need it more than the poor?

The only valid argument I have heard is if you remove the cap, you would have to increase said person benefit. Unless you want to cap the benefit but not the tax. I don’t see that going over well.

 

[Scruddy]

The only valid argument I have heard is if you remove the cap, you would have to increase said person benefit. Unless you want to cap the benefit but not the tax. I don’t see that going over well.

Why can't I opt out

 

[RileyHawk]

Why not just have welfare to the ones who need it, instead of a Ponzi scheme that screws everyone?

You've been dunked on regarding this claim several times before. Do I need to do it again?

 

[RileyHawk]

A Ponzi scheme is a form of fraud that lures investors and pays profits to earlier investors with funds from more recent investors.

There is not sufficient investment of 'contributions' to match promised outlays.

That's why there have been 21 tax hikes so far to keep it creaking along. A private Ponzi would have blown up long ago, and no future 'investors' would be found to be fleeced - but we don't get a choice.

As it stands now, the 'trust fund' will exhaust in 2034, and payroll tax receipts will amount to ~77% of promised outlays.
Current law says outlays can only be made from contributions.

The problem with more tax increases is that the system is already a net negative for anyone born after 1975. At scheduled benefits they're not going to get a dollar for each dollar paid in.

Let's start with an easy one. How is it a fraud?

 

[luvmyhawks]

Why can't I opt out

Probably because that is not currently an option. You should contact your rep.

 

[seminole97]

Social Security was a promise made by the government.

Should have been your first clue it was a scam.

 

[scotihawk]

Not exactly on the latter half. People lost life savings during W and Trump administrations by trusting the market.

And just how did they do that??...

Every single person that hasn't died yet is looking at an all time high in their 401 k and/or IRA accounts....if you are talking about someone trading in and out of their accounts and speculating on market moves, I think that is their prerogative.....

 

[RileyHawk]

And just how did they do that??...

Every single person that hasn't died yet is looking at an all time high in their 401 k and/or IRA accounts....if you are talking about someone trading in and out of their accounts and speculating on market moves, I think that is their prerogative.....

During W it was buying a house for the most part. Certainly what people choose to put their money into is their prerogative - sometimes it costs them their life savings.

 

[joelbc1]

The ponzi scheme should come to an end. Imagine getting upset about the idea of removing taxes from social security that was stolen from your income via tax to begin with.

Ponzi scheme? It has been around for 80 years about? Maybe you mean it’s a “Fonzi scheme”???Right….

 

[joelbc1]

And just how did they do that??...

Every single person that hasn't died yet is looking at an all time high in their 401 k and/or IRA accounts....if you are talking about someone trading in and out of their accounts and speculating on market moves, I think that is their prerogative.....

Recovery of stocks under Democrats….and yet, Trump and MASGAts are convincing America that the economy sucks and is on the skids……..How is this dichotomy possible?
I know…….TAX CUTS!

 

[scotihawk]

Recovery of stocks under Democrats….and yet, Trump and MASGAts are convincing America that the economy sucks and is on the skids……..How is this dichotomy possible?
I know…….TAX CUTS!

Yes, recovery of stocks and bonds HAS occured since 2021/2022....the worst years
for financial assets since 1975 and a period when Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress and the White House passing legislation that led to...... ....inflation in 2022 and 2023 the worst in 60 years....the economy HAS recovered from Covid shutdowns largely promoted by Democrat leaders and Federal Government bureaucrats after initial support from Trump in the first months of the shutdowns....

 

[RileyHawk]

Yes, recovery of stocks and bonds HAS occured since 2021/2022....the worst years
for financial assets since 1975 and a period when Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress and the White House passing legislation that led to...... ....inflation in 2022 and 2023 the worst in 60 years....the economy HAS recovered from Covid shutdowns largely promoted by Democrat leaders and Federal Government bureaucrats after initial support from Trump in the first months of the shutdowns....

The return on the S&P in 2021 was 26.9%. Since 2022 it's up another 25%.

You don't know what you're talking about.

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

The Social Security trust funds will be insolvent by Fiscal Year (FY) 2034, according to projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), at which point the law calls for a 23 percent cut in benefits.1 Restoring solvency over the next 75 years would require the equivalent of reducing all future benefits by 24 percent or increasing revenue by 35 percent.


Vice President Kamala Harris has said she would “protect Social Security” and former President Donald Trump has said he would “fight for and protect Social Security.” Unfortunately, neither candidate has presented plans to fix Social Security’s finances despite the looming $16,500 cut facing a typical couple retiring just before insolvency.


In fact, we find President Trump’s campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances.2


President Trump’s proposals to eliminate taxation of Social Security benefits, end taxes on tips and overtime, impose tariffs, and expand deportations would all widen Social Security’s cash deficits. Under our central estimate, we find that President Trump’s agenda would:

• Increase Social Security’s ten-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion through FY 2035.
• Advance insolvency by three years, from FY 2034 to FY 2031 – hastening the next President’s insolvency timeline by one-third.
• Lead to a 33 percent across-the-board benefit cut in 2035, up from the 23 percent CBO projects under current law.
• Increase Social Security’s annual shortfall by roughly 50 percent in FY 2035, from 3.6 to 4 percent of payroll.
• Require the equivalent of reducing current law benefits by about one-third or increasing revenue by about one-half to restore 75-year solvency.

What Would the Trump Campaign Plans Mean for Social Security? | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

2024-10-21-The Trump campaign plans would increase Social Security's ten-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion, make the program insolvent by 2031, increase Social Security's annual shortfall by 50 percent, and lead to a 33 percent across-the-board benefit cut by 2035.

www.crfb.org

Good information. What a disaster Trumps plan was be for red ass state citizens who are “takers” of federal benefits. They’ll cry their eyes out when their checks shrink or disappear and I’ll be LMFAO.

 

[scotihawk]

The return on the S&P in 2021 was 26.9%. Since 2022 it's up another 25%.

You don't know what you're talking about.

Why don't you check out 2022 dipshit??...and I suppose you think if the market is down 25% and then up 25%, you're back to even....

 

[RileyHawk]

Why don't you check out 2022 dipshit??...and I suppose you think if the market is down 25% and then up 25%, you're back to even....

JFC. The market is up 25% overall since January 2022. It was down about 15% in 2022 and up 47% from January 2023 until now.

You're really bad at this.

I do love it when posters like you demonstrate your ignorance so thoroughly.

 

[BGHAWK]

Unpopular opinion:


Social security is the biggest scam in the world. Do you know how much more money you would have if YOU could invest it, even in incredibly safe risk, than letting the government run its fingers through it?




The whole premise is that the government knows how to invest better than you, don't mind them taking their cut.

The word "could" or even "would" is the key word here. If SS stopped withdrawing funds form everyone's paychecks, what percentage of those people would invest that amount? Then would the taxpayer have to subsidize those that did not? What would that cost?

 

[RicoSuave102954]

Woulda

A new report projects that the Social Security Trust Fund might run out of money within six years under a Donald Trump presidency, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s proposed policies would not meaningfully change the current trajectory.

Get a curated selection of 10 of our best stories in your inbox every weekend.

Social Security faces a looming funding crisis in an aging country, with trustees most recently predicting that the retirement and disability program’s trust fund will become insolvent in 2035. Many of Trump’s campaign proposals would accelerate that timeline, potentially by years, said the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that opposes large federal deficits.

In a report released Monday, the organization concluded that many of Trump’s proposed second-term agenda items all work in the same direction when it comes to the Social Security Trust Fund. The budget group did not produce a similar report on Harris’s policies because they would have a negligible effect measured only in weeks or months rather than years, said Marc Goldwein, CRFB’s senior policy director.



Compared to prior presidential campaigns, Goldwein said, “I can’t think of anything that would be this order of magnitude” in its detrimental effect on Social Security’s bottom line compared to the policies Trump has proposed.
🏛️
Follow Politics
Most directly, Trump has promised that no Social Security recipients should have to pay federal income taxes on their benefits. Under current law, 40 percent of beneficiaries pay taxes on some portion of their Social Security. The tax they pay on their benefits goes directly back to the trust fund, and getting rid of it could cost the program almost $1 trillion over 10 years, the report forecast.
Other Trump policies might have indirect effects. Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented workers could cost the trust fund hundreds of millions of dollars, the CRFB said. Many undocumented immigrants have payroll taxes taken out of their paychecks for the Social Security Trust Fund, but never become eligible to claim benefits, so they are a net positive for the program.



Trump’s proposed high tariffs on all imports could affect the economy in several ways detrimental to Social Security’s financial health, CRFB said. If the tariffs drive high inflation as projected by Wall Street experts, Social Security will have to pay out more in benefits because of automatic cost-of-living adjustments based on inflation.
The report also pointed to Trump’s promises not to tax tip income or income earned during overtime hours. Trump has not clarified whether he means to exempt them from federal income taxes only or also from taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare. If he means the latter, that could cost Social Security $150 million to more than $1 trillion over a decade, with the likely outcome on the very high end of that range, CRFB said.
All added up, the report forecasts that Social Security under Trump would hit the point where by law it must cut benefits in 2031 or 2032. And unless Congress changes the law that triggers the automatic cuts, the size of the cut to benefits would rise, from a current projection of a 23 percent reduction for all Social Security checks to a predicted cut of about 33 percent.



Both Trump and Harris have said they aim to protect Social Security to prevent cuts if elected, but neither candidate has offered a comprehensive plan to plug the current projected gap. Stabilizing the trust fund will require either raising more money or spending less money in some way, or a combination of the two.
Trump has talked of raising more money by drilling for oil on federal lands and has claimed that undocumented immigrants receiving benefits has led to Social Security’s problems, a view rejected by experts who point out that immigrants pay more into the program than they receive.
Harris supports a plan to raise some of the money by imposing payroll taxes on income above $400,000; currently, workers stop paying Social Security taxes after their first $168,000 in annual income.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/21/social-security-crfb-trump-harris/

More Fake News

 

[joelbc1]

Yes, recovery of stocks and bonds HAS occured since 2021/2022....the worst years
for financial assets since 1975 and a period when Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress and the White House passing legislation that led to...... ....inflation in 2022 and 2023 the worst in 60 years....the economy HAS recovered from Covid shutdowns largely promoted by Democrat leaders and Federal Government bureaucrats after initial support from Trump in the first months of the shutdowns....

I dont wanna piss on your parade but…..1975-76 Ford was President…..Repubbers had the White House from 1981-1992, 2001-2009, 2017-2021….Dems had the WH from 1977-1980, 1993-2001, 2009-2017, and 2021 to present…..Repubbers had it 26 years and Dems had it almost 20 years….
From 1992 to Present, Congress has been controlled by Republicans 14 yrs, Dems 6 years and it has been split 8 yrs…..and you seem to forget (conveniently, I think) that America and the WORLD was in the midst of a pandemic that killed millions and shut down manufacturing everywhere in the world! Yet, you find it the “fault” of the Democrats….interesting.

 

[TheCainer]

Riley,

I fully understand my mindset requires the civilian to have a tiny level of financial intelligents and while 90% of people would FAR out gain anything the gov did for them, and half of the remaining would roughly break even with SS, there are still the remaining 5% you would fall under. It makes sense someone with your abilities would want someone else making thier decisions for them. You just keep swimming little buddy.

Employers now offer this thing called a 401.k .

Maybe you have heard of it?

Do you have one, and are you putting anything in it? The company I worked for would match 50% of my contributions and was a real money maker for me.

 

[Joes Place]

A new report projects that the Social Security Trust Fund might run out of money within six years under a Donald Trump presidency, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s proposed policies would not meaningfully change the current trajectory.

Get a curated selection of 10 of our best stories in your inbox every weekend.

Social Security faces a looming funding crisis in an aging country, with trustees most recently predicting that the retirement and disability program’s trust fund will become insolvent in 2035. Many of Trump’s campaign proposals would accelerate that timeline, potentially by years, said the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that opposes large federal deficits.

In a report released Monday, the organization concluded that many of Trump’s proposed second-term agenda items all work in the same direction when it comes to the Social Security Trust Fund. The budget group did not produce a similar report on Harris’s policies because they would have a negligible effect measured only in weeks or months rather than years, said Marc Goldwein, CRFB’s senior policy director.



Compared to prior presidential campaigns, Goldwein said, “I can’t think of anything that would be this order of magnitude” in its detrimental effect on Social Security’s bottom line compared to the policies Trump has proposed.
🏛️
Follow Politics
Most directly, Trump has promised that no Social Security recipients should have to pay federal income taxes on their benefits. Under current law, 40 percent of beneficiaries pay taxes on some portion of their Social Security. The tax they pay on their benefits goes directly back to the trust fund, and getting rid of it could cost the program almost $1 trillion over 10 years, the report forecast.
Other Trump policies might have indirect effects. Trump’s pledge to deport millions of undocumented workers could cost the trust fund hundreds of millions of dollars, the CRFB said. Many undocumented immigrants have payroll taxes taken out of their paychecks for the Social Security Trust Fund, but never become eligible to claim benefits, so they are a net positive for the program.



Trump’s proposed high tariffs on all imports could affect the economy in several ways detrimental to Social Security’s financial health, CRFB said. If the tariffs drive high inflation as projected by Wall Street experts, Social Security will have to pay out more in benefits because of automatic cost-of-living adjustments based on inflation.
The report also pointed to Trump’s promises not to tax tip income or income earned during overtime hours. Trump has not clarified whether he means to exempt them from federal income taxes only or also from taxes that fund Social Security and Medicare. If he means the latter, that could cost Social Security $150 million to more than $1 trillion over a decade, with the likely outcome on the very high end of that range, CRFB said.
All added up, the report forecasts that Social Security under Trump would hit the point where by law it must cut benefits in 2031 or 2032. And unless Congress changes the law that triggers the automatic cuts, the size of the cut to benefits would rise, from a current projection of a 23 percent reduction for all Social Security checks to a predicted cut of about 33 percent.



Both Trump and Harris have said they aim to protect Social Security to prevent cuts if elected, but neither candidate has offered a comprehensive plan to plug the current projected gap. Stabilizing the trust fund will require either raising more money or spending less money in some way, or a combination of the two.
Trump has talked of raising more money by drilling for oil on federal lands and has claimed that undocumented immigrants receiving benefits has led to Social Security’s problems, a view rejected by experts who point out that immigrants pay more into the program than they receive.
Harris supports a plan to raise some of the money by imposing payroll taxes on income above $400,000; currently, workers stop paying Social Security taxes after their first $168,000 in annual income.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/10/21/social-security-crfb-trump-harris/

Shhhh....

Don't let anyone in The Villages in FL know about this!!!

 

[Joes Place]

Yes, recovery of stocks and bonds HAS occured since 2021/2022....the worst years

In case you weren't aware, the economy has performed FAR better under Dem administrations than GOP ones.

AINEC.

Do you need a Big Person to post that info for you?

 

[Hans81]

Not exactly on the latter half. People lost life savings during W and Trump administrations by trusting the market.

Not if they simply stayed in the market…it goes down and it goes back up. That’s what she said. 😜

 

[RileyHawk]

Not if they simply stayed in the market…it goes down and it goes back up. That’s what she said. 😜

Not if it goes to zero.

 

[hawksurprize]

Offer anyone the ability to opt out. I'll stop paying my taxes into social security today and forego all the money I've dumped into it the last 20+ years.

Or some of us the last 45 years. That would be a bitter pill to swallow. Pay in literally your entire working life and then see ya.

 

[Scruddy]

Or some of us the last 45 years. That would be a bitter pill to swallow. Pay in literally your entire working life and then see ya.

Just because you can opt out wouldn't mean that you have to based on anything I said

 

[sabula]

Unpopular opinion:


Social security is the biggest scam in the world. Do you know how much more money you would have if YOU could invest it, even in incredibly safe risk, than letting the government run its fingers through it?




The whole premise is that the government knows how to invest better than you, don't mind them taking their cut.

Actually whiskey when you put into Social Security there is also matching money put in for you. I get the whole premise that I could probably have invested better by myself, which may well be true. May. Especially since the stock market has gone bonkers up thank you joe. But Social Security's real reason is to get everyone to save. You know to save something. Otherwise all those corn pone hicks in magaworld would spend their money on Keystone Light rather than putting it away for the future. You know, they think they got to update the trailer and get some new bibs. However dentist work is not part of their plans. At least with Social Security they have something to fall back on. Not substantial but something. That's where your own personal savings and investment come into play. And you better be doing that on your own. Unless your own retirement plan is to work till you're 95.

 

[sabula]

If they lost life savings it most certainly wasn’t from trusting the markets.

History will show you that in no rolling 10-year period for about the last 100 years has the stock market ever lost money for that 10 year period

 

[hawksurprize]

Just because you can opt out wouldn't mean that you have to based on anything I said

Ok. I would want my money be lump sum or something else.

 

[joelbc1]

Offer anyone the ability to opt out. I'll stop paying my taxes into social security today and forego all the money I've dumped into it the last 20+ years.

Scruffy… I know you’re a liar here…reading this I see you’re fool too! LOL
I offer this statement if yours a proof!
Next blood check you get, have’m check your testosterone level…methinks it’s running a little high!

 

[sabula]

Woulda

More Fake News

Good job rico. Just like Diaper Donny, when you don't like something... call it fake. There's enough morons out there that'll believe it.

 

[joelbc1]

Good job rico. Just like Diaper Donny, when you don't like something... call it fake. There's enough morons out there that'll believe it.

Rico is DA Man!

 

[Scruddy]

Ok. I would want my money be lump sum or something else.

I would too if I was at a different point in life.

 

[Joes Place]

Actually whiskey when you put into Social Security there is also matching money put in for you. I get the whole premise that I could probably have invested better by myself, which may well be true. May. Especially since the stock market has gone bonkers up thank you joe. But Social Security's real reason is to get everyone to save.

It's actually to have a guaranteed benefit, regardless as to how the economy or stock markets fare.

This is why Wall St wants to "privatize" it, because they will lobby for (and get the ability to) tack on "fees" for all those investments - hundreds of billions of Main St investment now going into their pockets. They get $0 from any SS.

If anything were to be "privatized", it must be illegal for them to charge even $0.01 in returns fees on any SS/privatized investment. They can charge fixed fees for trades; that's it. At $6-8 per trade. You require that they cannot profit off %s of investments, and their push for privatization pretty much goes away. It is entirely why they push for it, because 1-2% of SS dollars will be a windfall for them; and just like 2007 (and Covid), people with investments thru them can lose a hell of a lot of money heading into retirement.

Wall St drools with the notion of providing "privatized" plans to naïve investors. It is an idea ripe for grifting and unlimited profits for them.

 

[Joes Place]

History will show you that in no rolling 10-year period for about the last 100 years has the stock market ever lost money for that 10 year period

Yes, but it can happen over <10 yrs, and if that market fall occurs right as you are retiring, it is impossible to make up unless you delay your retirement.

That's an important distinction here. Market crashes happen. Pandemics happen. That can destroy someone's retirement savings nest egg, and if they have to now delay retirement from 65 to 75 (your "10 years") that's an enormous impact.

 

[Tom Paris]

Ponzi scheme? It has been around for 80 years about? Maybe you mean it’s a “Fonzi scheme”???Right….

These guys are jumping the shark.

 

[OrlandNole]

Riley,

I fully understand my mindset requires the civilian to have a tiny level of financial intelligents

And what about cognitive?

 

[ft254]

I hope neither you or any of your relatives ever get sick or disabled.

I don't sympathize with these assholes. Screw them.