Uconn 61% to win?
- Thread starter elipse
- Start date
I don't know which means less, the gambling line (which is set to draw $) or any ESPN-created stat. Check that, ESPN's contrived stats are always weak.
I would go with what Vegas thinks any day of the week over espn. I just hope they're right
they do have 7 top 50 players in their rotation while we have 2. fyi lsu had 4.
Herhoopstats has Iowa as a 2 point favorite with a 56% chance to win.
you are correct.
how accurate is this, i wonder?
UConn vs. Iowa (Apr 5, 2024) Live Score - ESPN
Live coverage of the UConn Huskies vs. Iowa Hawkeyes NCAAW game on ESPN, including live score, highlights and updated stats.
Then why are they the 3 seed and Iowa 1 seed, player rankings don't mean crap at this point.
They're definitely loaded. Just for fun I looked up their 5 losses this year. South Carolina, Texas, NC State, UCLA & Notre Dame, 2 of those teams are in the Final Four, 1 made the Elite 8, the other two Sweet 16.
They're going to be a tough out.
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Just fyi re the gambling line, many Sportsbook folks have openly said Iowa’s lines have been inflated all year just because of their popularity.
HerHoopStats uses analytics. Here are the team comparisons...
SC 86.1% to win (13.6 points) over NC State
IA 55.6% to win (2.0 points) over UConn
SC 66% to win (5.3 points) over UConn
SC 59.9% to win (3.6 points) over Iowa
UConn 75.4% to win (8.3 points) over NC State
Iowa 77.7% to win (10.9 points) over NC State
I think they had us a 6 point favorite over LSU
SC 86.1% to win (13.6 points) over NC State
IA 55.6% to win (2.0 points) over UConn
SC 66% to win (5.3 points) over UConn
SC 59.9% to win (3.6 points) over Iowa
UConn 75.4% to win (8.3 points) over NC State
Iowa 77.7% to win (10.9 points) over NC State
I think they had us a 6 point favorite over LSU
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While I agree everyone of those games was a double digit loss. South Carolina game was never close. The USC win was by far their best win of the season. Otherwise they don’t have many good wins.
Thats what the clown on the pregame said last night. He said good teams win, and GREAT teams cover. Then he said that Iowa is NOT a great team so take LSU and the 1.5 points. Just another clown who hasn't watched Iowa all year but looks up the box scores...
True. I was just pointing out that the gambling lines in Iowa’s case are not as great of predictor of “what Vegas thinks.”
Let's see, Geno A. has had UConn in what? 16 of the last 17 Final Fours. The one he didn't make his leading scorer was hurt. How many national championships has he won? Lots. How about ELEVEN! This isn't even one of his better teams. If there is one team that that we should respect, it is this one. And if we manage to beat UConn, we will undoubtedly face South Carolina. I don't care what the point spread is, what I worry about is UConn's and South Carolina's coaching savvy and what kind of a defense they come up with.
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BirdistheWord
HR Heisman
I'm going to guess Geno is a better strategist than Kim Mulkey, so I expect better d on Clark. Kim got lucky last year. Her team should've lost to Utah, pulled it out of their ass at the end. Then they had a bench player have the luckiest game of her life against us.
Honestly, I was really just hoping Iowa would bounce LSU...everything else is just gravy for me.
I actually think they will fair better against UConn than I would have thought they would do against LSU.
Iowas weakness in my mind is playing against teams with size and I could be wrong but looking at UConn’s roster, they don’t look to have much size.
I think it will basically come down to how well each team is shooting Friday night.
Iowas weakness in my mind is playing against teams with size and I could be wrong but looking at UConn’s roster, they don’t look to have much size.
I think it will basically come down to how well each team is shooting Friday night.
All seven of the Athletic's analysts are picking Iowa to win by anywhere from 4 to 9 points
This is already an incredibly successful season. But I really want more for this team. Sounds like they are hungry for more too.
Caitlin plays well when she has a chip on her shoulder. Not being recruited by U Conn, and questioned about who the best player by U Conn. I was really impressed how the rest of the team played against LSU.
Go Hawks!!!
Go Hawks!!!
Like her or not Mulkey is a pretty damn good coach as well, or she wouldn't have her resume....
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I really think that Iowa can pace the Huskettes into tired legs in the 2nd half.....
UConn has a ton of injuries and are playing a limited rotation. They only played 7 against USC and I think that is only because of foul trouble. Foul trouble is going to be a big deal, especially for Edwards, they don't have anyone to replace her. Bueckers is next.
How to beat Iowa? Size, defensive pressure and offensive rebounding. UConn doesn't have imposing size (we outsize them), is not going to dominate the offensive glass and with their limited rotation they cannot afford to get into foul trouble.
The matchup to me looks like this:
Edwards - Stuelke
Shade - Affolter
Arnold - Marshall
Bueckers - Martin
Muhl - CC
CC will dominate Muhl and I think Geno has to do this matchup to protect Bueckers not only from foul trouble but it is so draining to have to guard a player like CC that it will most definitely come at a cost on the offensive end and they need her to score. And really to rebound too.
The keys to the game I see are:
1. Who gets 2 fouls first, Edwards are Stuelke? Without Edwards we have a huge advantage.
2. How quickly can CC get 2 on Muhl? Force Geno to bring in a bench player or put Bueckers on her.
3. Conditioning of UConn, especially after flying from the west coast late Monday night to play a Friday night game in Cleveland.
I don't see us losing this game and we definitely have a much larger margin than they do.
How to beat Iowa? Size, defensive pressure and offensive rebounding. UConn doesn't have imposing size (we outsize them), is not going to dominate the offensive glass and with their limited rotation they cannot afford to get into foul trouble.
The matchup to me looks like this:
Edwards - Stuelke
Shade - Affolter
Arnold - Marshall
Bueckers - Martin
Muhl - CC
CC will dominate Muhl and I think Geno has to do this matchup to protect Bueckers not only from foul trouble but it is so draining to have to guard a player like CC that it will most definitely come at a cost on the offensive end and they need her to score. And really to rebound too.
The keys to the game I see are:
1. Who gets 2 fouls first, Edwards are Stuelke? Without Edwards we have a huge advantage.
2. How quickly can CC get 2 on Muhl? Force Geno to bring in a bench player or put Bueckers on her.
3. Conditioning of UConn, especially after flying from the west coast late Monday night to play a Friday night game in Cleveland.
I don't see us losing this game and we definitely have a much larger margin than they do.
That guy SUCKS. Give someone more deserving a job, please! Also, can that oldhead punk on PTI. Can't stand the guy.
Geno will probably run double teams at Clark to get her to give up the ball early. But she is the best at finding open players. Can UConn rotate fast enough to cover the rest & can Hawkeye supporting cast cash in off these open looks. UConn didn't look that quick to me. Caitlin will be having her way & drop 60 on Geno's head...
Undisputed GOAT!
We only go about 7 deep, too.
It is amazing how much we run and gun with so few minutes from our bench.
Think of the cardio shape our starters must be in.
Minutes vs LSU:
40: Clark
40: Marshall
39: Martin
37: Affolter
21: Stuelke
..............................
15: O'Grady
5: Feuerbach
3: Ediger
..............................
200 TOTAL
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I completely agree with you, but, it is so hard to double 30 feet from the basket.Geno will probably run double teams at Clark to get her to give up the ball early. But she is the best at finding open players. Can UConn rotate fast enough to cover the rest & can Hawkeye supporting cast cash in off these open looks. UConn didn't look that quick to me. Caitlin will be having her way & drop 60 on Geno's head...
Undisputed GOAT!
Always enjoy factual info Bonzo! Thanks.
Although every time I see your screen name I think of:
