When is the last time Fran didn't get an in-state kid he really wanted? I'm asking because I don't recall.
The bogeyman for Iowa fans with Fran is undoubtedly point guard. He's never landed any big-time PGs he's pursued, so there's this pervasive feeling of "here we go again." With that said, this is the first time a kid this highly ranked has been in our backyard since Marcus Paige (which I don't think you can really fault Fran for not getting).
The point is I think this kid is Fran's to lose. This just has a different feel to it than years past. Unless DJ has his heart set on going out of state, which some kids just do for whatever reason (I don't believe that's the case here), then Fran should have a leg up on the competition given what he has to sell.
If DJ does go elsewhere, then it ultimately validates everything you are saying.
This might be the most important recruit Fran has ever gone after at Iowa. And I think Fran knows it.