Way too early roster and NCAA Tournament predictions

[MSU158]

I started this thread over on themat, wanted to see what the best fanbase in the world has to say!

Here goes:

The Favorite: PSU After seeing how far they would go in voo-doo hexing OkState with injuries, I know better than to pick against them.

125: All signs point to the standout 2016 recruit, Suriano starting as a True Freshman. If not, I haven't heard of any transfers and I don't see anyone else in the stable qualifying for Nationals. Megaludis was able to peak at the end of his True Freshman season, so there is a precedent for True Freshman success. This weight returns 6 AA's and we could see Micic swap with one of those. I usually don't pick freshman to AA before they have wrestled a DI match but I can't go against the PSU track record. 8th-6 pts

133: Cortez-He had a very solid redshirt season. The weight thins out with only 3 AA's returning and DiCamillo. Brock should be a force here if he returns healthy. After that they weight is wide open. I have him at 6th-9.5 pts

141: Gulibon-I still think he would be better at 133, but I just don't see him dropping back down with how successful Cortez was. This guy is super hard to predict. Will he have that giant freshman hunger to go out on top? Or, will HEW get him? 141 remains really deep, with 7 of 8 AA's returning and either Hayes or Jordan slotting in for tOSU. I see him falling just short in the R12-3pts.

149: Retherford-Beast, Hodge and any other trophy available! 1st-28pts

157: Nolf-I don't see Martinez going anywhere. I am also interested to see who progresses more between Nolf, Smith and Palacio. Still, I can't pick them above Nolf until they prove they deserve it. 2nd-22.5pts

165: Joseph-Seems most are high on him, but I still believe Morelli will have something to say about this. He made them start him this year and Joseph has no track record up at 165. Either way I simply don't have enough data to pick higher than 2-2. 2pts

174: Nickal-For some reason I see a similar to Megaludis trajectory. He is still a tad bit raw to pick to finish it all and 174 could be better next year if Crutchmer and Realbuto can get healthy along with a possible BoJo move. Epperly, Jackson, Weatherspoon and Meyer return as well. Still, he proved he can make the finals and I have him there again. 2nd 20 pts

184: McCutcheon, Rasheed, Phipps, Stout-No matter who it is, I see injuries and question marks. Rasheed is thought of highly but I think he loses a lot of his danger factor up at a weight that he no longer has a length advantage at. Cradles will be much more difficult to come by. I think it will be MCCutcheon in March. R12-3pts

197: I keep hearing Cassar, although he isn't registered yet. I will slot him in at 2-2. 2.5pts

285: Nevills-I honestly don't know what to predict here. Injuries are brutal at heavyweight and he didn't wrestle enough in either his redshirt or freshman seasons to get a good gauge. Still, I will pick him to win twice. 2-2 1.5pts.

PSU-98pts 165, 184 and 285 could prove to be better and that would pull them away from the pack.

 

[MSU158]

The Contender: Iowa-I like who they return a lot and it looks like they will fill every weight buy 197 with significant improvement from last season.

125-Gilman-If rumors of Tomasello having issues with 125 are true, it's very hard to pick anyone over him. 1st-26.5pts

133-Clark-The way 133 clears out, I think this weight is Clark's. The only guy I am afraid of is Brock. If he can rebound from the injury with no confidence issues, he could do some serious damage. 1st-24.5pts

141-Turk-I see him taking some lumps, but he should qualify and win a match. 1-2. 1pt

149-Sorenson-Sadly, hear is stuck as the best of the rest. The only thing that could hurt him is if Tsirtsis comes back revitalized. For now, 2nd-17.5pts

157-Kemerer-This kid looked awesome, but it was at 149. Will he be able to fill out 157? I do, however, think 157 is pretty thin after the top 5 or so and I could see him sneaking onto the podium. But, I can't quite yet. 2-2. 2.5pts

165-The Bull-See my write up on Suriano, except I think he is about a half step better and 165 looks quite a bit thinner especially if BoJo moves up. 6th-9.5pts

174-Meyer-Drove every Iowa fan CRAZY. The closest to a spaghetti wrestler Iowa has had in a while. I think he improves slightly on his finish this season. 7th-8.5pts

184-Brooks-He has all the tools to be in the finals. The problem is so do about 7 other wrestlers at the weight. I expect him to beat about half of those. 4th-12pts

197-Holloway-He may qualify but I haven't seen enough to pick him to win. 0-2. 0pts

285-Stoll-He is almost as hard to predict as Nevills. Knee injuries with his body style are very, very hard to come all the way back from. I loved his heart and expected to see him on the podium. Still, I can't pick him there until I see him wrestle. 2-2. 2.5pts

Surprisingly, I have Iowa ahead of PSU with 104.5 I am still picking PSU because I expect their unknowns to score more points, I just don't know who it will be. Iowa, on the other hand, I picked most of their points(nearly 85%) to be scored by their returning AA's.

 

[MSU158]

tOSU: I like Ryan. The guy just looks, sounds and acts like a DI coach should. He is at the 2nd best DI School for regional recruiting and has shown that he knows how to recruit that area exceptionally well.

125:Tomasello-I am keeping him here for now, until I see something concrete. Gilman just seems to have his number, but it isn't a Dake-Taylor number. He can win, I just don't see it in St. Louis. 2nd-22.5pts

133letcher/Rodriguez-So many true freshman possibilities. So hard to predict. 1-2. 1pt

141:Hayes-He is supposed to be really good. Still, 141 is LOADED. 2-2-1.5pts

149: M. Jordan-I expect him to shine up a weight. 6th -9.5pts

157: Ryan-Hard worker, but limited offensively. 2-2. 2.5pts

165:White-I just don't see him ready to go, but I picked their best option by far. 2-2. 2pts

174:BoJo-Although he may be more healthy and active I still see the same result. 3rd-16pts

184:Martin-This would be the year to redshirt, but I don't think he will. 184 is deep. 6th-13.5pts

197:Moore-He is solid but 1 win is his max. 1-2. .5pts

285:Snyder-With Gwiz gone, it is simply a matter of how many tech falls he has going into the Finals. 1st-26.5

OSU-95.5pts

 

[MSU158]

OkState: Losing Dieringer is a crushing blow. Still they return quite a bit of scoring potential.

125iccininni-I keep hearing nothing but good things. I think he is the guy that beats Suriano for 7th. 7th-8pts

133:Brock-This guy's ceiling is as high as anyone at the weight, IF he can return fully healthy. 5th-11pts

141:Heil-I see him winning it again, but he just doesn't score bonus pts. 1st-22pts

149:Collica-Finally, proved he belongs. I see him right back where he finished. 4th-14.5pts

157:Smith-He will move up. I am staying a bit conservative on how high. 4th-14.5pts

165:Marstellar?-If he is here I still expect good things. R12-3pts

174:Crutchmer/Rogers-I am still a big Crutchmer fan, but can't assess the injury. 7th-8pts

184:Boyd-I loved the run but 184 is still very deep, I see him falling back a bit. 6th-9pts

197:Weigel/Marsden/Schafer- Hard workers but, not AA's. 2-2. 2pts

285:Transfer rumors abound. But, for now, DNQ-0pts.

92pts

 

[MSU158]

Virginia Tech: Surprisingly the team that created more Internet controversy than the rest combined. The great part was they managed to finish 1 pt ahead of Iowa for the final team trophy. Can they repeat a top 4 finish?

125ance-I expect him to be healthy and properly motivated this season. 3rd-16pts

133:Gustafson-I expect him to qualify this season and win a match. 1-2. 1pt

141:Chisko-The first of 3 great VTech freshmen. He managed to take 6th in a deep weight. I see him a bit lower. 8th-6pts

149:Mastriani-He may be their weakest link, and that is more a testament to how tough VTech is top to bottom. 2-2. 2.5pts

157:I honestly don't have a clue-For now 0pts

165:McFadden-I like this kid. Hard nosed and doesn't tire. Should match his 2016 performance. 6th-10pts

174:Epperly-I really like this kid. I may sound like a broken record. I see him as the guy beating Nickal. 1st-24.5pts

184:Zavatsky-Took his lumps in a brutal weight. I see him on the podium this year. 7th-8pts

197: Haught-It thins out a bit above him. 3rd-16pts

285: Walz-Best after Snyder and Coon, but I think Dhesi keeps improving. 4th-14pts

Wow, the last team I picked and I have them at 98 along with PSU. But, they don't really have any unknowns that could really boost their total and I don't really see much room for improvement from the proven guys.

 

[LaxHawk174]

You have Marinelli and McFadden both taking 6th but, good analysis, makes for great reading material in the off season. I'll bring my own way to early predictions to the table in a little bit.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Not bad for 11 months out. Not a lot of quibbles. A few questions/comments for you though.

1. Why do you have Chisko falling from 6th when you admit he took 6th at a deep weight? Wouldn't another year in a college room equate to better results?
2. Not as high on Dance as you are. He went 1-2 at nationals, and scored exactly 1 point. He may have been 2nd seeded, but I'm from Mizzou on him at this point.
3. For OSU, I think Rogers mans 165 next year, but probably not much better than r12 as you say.
4. I think Boyd will surprise for OSU. Something clicked in him late year.
5. Who does tOSU have as a 125 if Tomasello goes 133? In the end, my bet is that he goes 133. My feeling is that Ryan will believe he scores more at 133 than 125 and everything else is a wash. Just my gut on that one.
6. I think if Tomasello moves up, Clark will have a tough time with his offense. If not, I agree that Clark can win it. 24.5 points is too high for Clark though. AD only got 25. He's more like 21 points.
7. Agree on the PSU unknowns. I think they can win again, but without seeing the new guys take the mat, hard to say what they score next March.

 

[MSU158]

Lax,

That is the joy of predictions. You are inevitably going to be wrong in some instances. I see them both in that slot, and I couldn't decide whom I would move higher or lower!

 

[Stanley75]

Good stuff nice write up.

 

[MSU158]

PennState1985,

1.)I like Chisko alot, but I think he benefited from a very favorable draw. I think he has enough to still reach the podium, but I still see 7 guys ahead of him.

2.)Dance was visibly injured at NCAA's. That is why I spoke about health. Who knows, I could very well be jinxing him like Klimara, but I think he is top3 at 125 when healthy.

3.)I won't give up on Marstellar. If he is at OkState next year, I think 165 is his.

4.)I like Boyd alot, but 184 is a meat grinder. Dudley will be exuding confidence, Renda will be as well. You then have, Miklus, Brooks and Dechow. Zavatsky and McCutcheon will also be looming. I think a lot of it will come down to the draw.

5.)I don't know about that. Ryan does have a history of keeping guys at their weight if the vacated weight looks weak. 125 would be brutal for them if Tomasello goes up.

7.)Yep. I believe I am definitely the under when scoring them as a whole. I just don't have anything to go off to pick any one individual to AA.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Forgot about Dance being injured. I won't give up on Chance being a factor at 165 either, but there seems to be a lot of smoke about what colors he'll be wearing. 285 for tOSU will depend on how Snyder does this summer. If he does well, I don't think he'll wrestle next year for tOSU. Just my opinion. I also think Rasheed Shakur will press McCutcheon for the 184 job for PSU. The amount of quality at 184 is one reason why I don't see Martin moving up into that meat grinder, but I agree with you that it benefits tOSU for him to do so. Martin taking a rs may depend on whether Snyder is on the team.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Lax,

That is the joy of predictions. You are inevitably going to be wrong in some instances. I see them both in that slot, and I couldn't decide whom I would move higher or lower!

Good stuff. Never too early for predictions. I need to dig into your posts deeper but my day job is being pesky.

 

[meatloaf55]

Thanks for the write up. I don't know enough about what everyone else brings back right now to do one myself but I enjoy the analysis. Looks like next year could be more competitive all around

 

[21Guns]

If Marstellar is going to be at 165 he will have to beat Rogers in the room. That's IF he stays at Oklahoma State, which is another question. If he does, he needs to beat Rogers. Smith is not going to start Marstellar if Marstellar does not beat Rogers.

So far, he has not been able to.

 

[Lionfan44]

Great read MSU. Thanks for putting it together. Am I the only one on here who thinks IMAR will be at 165 next year? He has to be the biggest 157 pounder I have ever seen. All year long there was talk about how tough it was for him to make weight. Could be a rumor, could be fact – I have no inside information, I just like to speculate like everyone else!

 

[dunkej01]

My gut disagrees with you on psu s points at 165, 184 and hwt. But my head agrees with you at the moment msu.

Nice work overall.

 

[1stplacehawk]

My gut disagrees with you on psu s points at 165, 184 and hwt. But my head agrees with you at the moment msu.

Nice work overall.

You'll significantly outpoint his predictions at those weights. Just like Kemerer will be better than 2-2

 

[Omahahawk86]

If Marstellar is going to be at 165 he will have to beat Rogers in the room. That's IF he stays at Oklahoma State, which is another question. If he does, he needs to beat Rogers. Smith is not going to start Marstellar if Marstellar does not beat Rogers.

So far, he has not been able to.

Didn't he beat him last year when both were at 65 in an open? I know he also placed higher than him at scuffle.

 

[21Guns]

Martinez is at 165 now. Unclear why so many are so desirous that he stay at 157, I mean the kid wrestles for Illinois, but whatever, haha.

 

[21Guns]

Didn't he beat him last year when both were at 65 in an open? I know he also placed higher than him at scuffle.

Then he'll win in the room and everyone will be happy. So far, he has not beaten him in their room.

 

[Omahahawk86]

Pretty sure the majority of the vtech guys are moving up. Chisko and Dance for sure.

 

[Omahahawk86]

Then he'll win in the room and everyone will be happy. So far, he has not beaten him in their room.

I don't think he was beating anyone in the room when he was cutting to 57 or when he was suspended the last month plus.

 

[21Guns]

I don't think he was beating anyone in the room when he was cutting to 57 or when he was suspended the last month plus.

Pretty sure the majority of the vtech guys are moving up. Chisko and Dance for sure.

Chisko?

Doubtful.

 

[21Guns]

I don't think he was beating anyone in the room when he was cutting to 57 or when he was suspended the last month plus.

Rogers is pretty dawgone good. I think he beats Marstellar in wrestle offs. Even if not, no guarantee the job belongs to Marstellar season long..

 

[Omahahawk86]

Chisko?

Doubtful.

Wrong

 

[Omahahawk86]

Rogers is pretty dawgone good. I think he beats Marstellar in wrestle offs. Even if not, no guarantee the job belongs to Marstellar season long..

Marstellar isn't even back on the team yet. If he's at 65 and his heads into it he'll beat Rogers. Rogers is a ton of fun to watch but he's a big move guy. Stay out of his bundle and over unders and you have a great chance...ex Bo Nickal

 

[LaxHawk174]

Chishko was a 149 lber as a redshirt I believe, he had a hard time getting down there to 141 during his RS year, then did it for the team because of Mastriani returning R12 at 149 to make the team stronger. Also believe Dance was struggling big time with weight this season. Would not be surprised at all to see them both move up.

 

[MSU158]

You'll significantly outpoint his predictions at those weights. Just like Kemerer will be better than 2-2

I am a big Kemerer fan. I hope you are right. It's just really hard for me to pick a freshman to AA when he may actually be at a weigh class above his ideal weight. Did I mention how hard it is for me to pick freshmen to AA when they haven't even wrestled an attached match yet?

 

[21Guns]

Wrong

We'll see. Anyway, perhaps they think they get on the stand this way, but he could
have just as easily stayed at 141 and gotten the exact same results.

He has zero chance to win the whole thing at 149.

 

[21Guns]

Marstellar isn't even back on the team yet. If he's at 65 and his heads into it he'll beat Rogers. Rogers is a ton of fun to watch but he's a big move guy. Stay out of his bundle and over unders and you have a great chance...ex Bo Nickal

Too many if's.

If you have to say "If his head is into it...", then it's a long shot. Seen too many examples of it never coming together. We'll see. Right now he hangs around with his girl friend in Wilkes Barre Pennsylvania a lot, fairly far from Stillwater Oklahoma.

 

[Omahahawk86]

We'll see. Anyway, perhaps they think they get on the stand this way, but he could
have just as easily stayed at 141 and gotten the exact same results.

He has zero chance to win the whole thing at 149.

Agreed that he has zero chance to win at 49. He has about a 1% at 41. Cutting crazy amounts of weight isn't fun. He had said before he would do 41 for a year. Brascetta is gone at 57 allowing everyone to move up. 41 may not have the top p4p guy at the top but it's 20+ deep with young guys that will be a year older next year. Throw in 4 super freshman and that's a crazy weight.

He would probably be a low AA at either weight.

 

[Omahahawk86]

Too many if's.

If you have to say "If his head is into it...", then it's a long shot. Seen too many examples of it never coming together. We'll see. Right now he hangs around with his girl friend in Wilkes Barre Pennsylvania a lot, fairly far from Stillwater Oklahoma.

Personally, I don't think he's back at Osu. I think he's still got it and could beat a numerous time AA. The big thing is if he leaves does Smith give him his release?

 

[Pennstate1985]

You'll significantly outpoint his predictions at those weights. Just like Kemerer will be better than 2-2

I think so as well but if PSU was ever ripe for getting taken down, next year is it. We only have five guys with any quantity of varsity lineup experience. Gulibon, Retherford, Nolf, Nickal, and McCutcheon/Shakur. Not counting Nevills as he had so few matches after such a long layoff that he essentially redshirted. So 125, 133, 165, 197, and heavy will all have new guys. As Dunke said in an earlier post, my gut says that we'll do just fine with the incoming guys, but my brain tells me that there is a lot of risk involved with having half the lineup be new.

When I look at that, and then look at what Iowa, OSU, tOSU, and possibly VT will be bringing to the mat, I am more than a little concerned. PSU is NOT a preseason #1 in my eyes.

 

[Pennstate1985]

I am a big Kemerer fan. I hope you are right. It's just really hard for me to pick a freshman to AA when he may actually be at a weigh class above his ideal weight. Did I mention how hard it is for me to pick freshmen to AA when they haven't even wrestled an attached match yet?

agree. Only 9 freshmen AA'd this past year. 4 were true freshmen and 5 were redshirt freshmen. Even the phenoms have a difficult time at nationals where nearly every match on the front and back side are chock full of talent.

 

[SCstunners]

MSU- What is NC State looking like next year? I don't know them well enough to make predictions like that. I know we can all get a little disappointed every year with how the hawks finish, but man, college wrestling is the best it has ever been. There are a lot of serious contenders now. Makes for a lot of fun.

 

[Ihawkd9times]

Good work MSU. I appreciate the effort.

I like KemDawg at 157 more than a 2-2. I think he will/has grown into it more so that many are wanting to give him credit. With the exception of Nolf/Imart, I can see Kem being about as offensive a takedown machine as anyone else. Question is will he be strong enough. I think so because he is a year older and D1 stronger. Biggest factor will be how far he has come on getting out and riding without getting reversed because the kid can flat out wrestle on his feet but if anyone watched that Sueflohn match at midlands you can see both a future star and a freshman in the same match.

157 for VT. Can Dayton Racer make that weight for them or is he stuck on the bench at 165/174. I haven't hear much on him and what weight did he compete at as a RS this year?


Oh I would like to see an Arizona State roster and predictions. They wont win it but they will be a real threat for top 5.

 

[MSU158]

For the most part, I avoided weight change rumors until they are actually confirmed. The only one I went with was Jordan and Martin because so many seem convinced that BoJo is struggling mightily with 165.

Also, I only listed the rosters that I am most familiar with. I can do NCState and ASU but I won't be near as informed as someone close to the programs.

 

[MSU158]

NCState: Losing Gwiz and Gantt hurts, no way around that. They will still be solid but they will take a step back before they can go forward again.

125:Fausz-This kid was a scrapper as a freshman. I see him more refined and improved. R12-3pts

133:Morris-Another hard nosed tough freshman. Went 2-2 last season, I see him finishing R12-3pts

141:Jack-Surprised he fell short last season. That is a testament to how deep 141 was and still is. I think he makes it back. 5th-10pts

149onahue/? This weight took a while to be decided last season and probably will again. I don't see any points here. 0pts

157yke-He was the starter here 2 years ago, and had a decent limited season. May qualify but not likely to win. 0-2. 0pts

165:Rohskopf-Super strong kid, but needs to add to his neutral wrestling and stop relying so heavily on the dangerously close to illegal side headlock. I thought he would AA this past season and I expect him to this upcoming season. 7th-8pts

174:Hall/?-I don't know enough to say if anyone else is moving in or waiting in the wings. Hall isn't a likely qualifier. 0pts

184:Renda-This guy had a phenomenal NCAA run. I didn't see 3rd being possible for him. I like him, but 184 is still super deep and I see him dropping back a bit. 7th-8pts

197:Boykin-Solid guy. May get pushed a bit by Malik McDonald(RSSO). I see him as 2-2. 3pts

285:Kosoy- He will be a RSSR, having rolled around with Gwiz for his whole career. He had a solid season at 17-6. I will give him the benefit of the doubt and qualify him with a win. 1-2. 1pt

NCState 36pts If Jack, Rohskopf and Renda really step up they could pass 50 but I don't see them much higher than that.

 

[1stplacehawk]

I am a big Kemerer fan. I hope you are right. It's just really hard for me to pick a freshman to AA when he may actually be at a weigh class above his ideal weight. Did I mention how hard it is for me to pick freshmen to AA when they haven't even wrestled an attached match yet?

I have no problem with the predictions. Nothing goes the exact way any of us expect, anyway. There is limited sample size and taking a cautious approach is fine, but I believe all of those guys will/can do better than predicted.

 

[MSU158]

ASU: I am admittedly doing some guessing here. Too many young faces and miles away for me to be certain.

125:Carpio-He pulled away from Perales this past season. Although he is listed as a senior, I am not sure if one of the seasons was a redshirt or not. Kramer may take over this weight. Still there aren't any results to expect wins in March. 0pts

133:Brady-He missed a large part of the season but, proved to be one tough hombre going 1-2 at NCAA's losing close matches to DiCamillo and Taylor. I see him at R12-3pts.

141:Mathers/Villarreal-Mathers had a solid season but, went 0-2 at NCAA's. Villarreal was a big name recruit and I think he takes over the spot. I see him as a 2-2. 1.5pts guy.

149:Krauss-He managed to pull away from Pagdilio but, Maruca may make them both sit. Very hard weight to figure. I say 2-2. 2.5pts

157ierce-He showed some glimmers this season but Shields is another high end recruit. I see Shields taking the spot. 2-2. 2.5pts

ASU could have a Freshman starting at every weight from 141-197. From here on down these guys are really good.

165:A. Valencia-He had some super high quality wins internationally beating the likes of Caldwell and just made the finals of the last chance qualifier for the Olympics, losing a nail-biter to Hall. I think he is AA ready. 7th-9pts.

174: Z. Smith-He should have redshirted last year. It looked like he had a confidence issue(injury?) and didn't wrestle the 2nd semester. I expect him to rebound well with the workout partners he has surrounding him. 1-2. 1pt

184: Z. Valencia-Yet another monster diving into the depths of 184. I keep saying that I don't like picking a Freshman to AA, but this guy is good. 8th-6pts.

197:Benick-This guy was a MONSTER in high school. However, I haven't heard much since he went to ASU. 197 is a big boy weight and I can't pick him to AA until I see him match up. 2-2. 2.5pts

285:Hall-He definitely had an up and down and then back up season. At the beginning of the year, he looked like he could challenge the top 4. He slipped a bit mid-season, but wasw able to finish R12. I see him stepping it up a bit this upcoming season. 7th-8pts

ASU 36pts. I see 3 AA's, but if the stars align perfectly, they could get as many as 5. They are still a ways away from a top 5 finish, but they have the talent to get there soon.