It's a 3 team race next year IMO between tOSU psu and Iowa next year for the BIGs title and NCAAs.
tOSU: guys like Pletcher 33, White 65 will likely start next year. Tom Ryan gives no Fs about starting a true Frosh. That coach will do whatever it takes to win a team title (just ask Thomas Haines)
Micah Jordan will be the X factor. He'll be at 49 and be a mid to high AA. I can see KeyShawn Hayes also placing mid to high AA in a relatively open 41lb weight class.
tOSU seems to be on a trend of having success with their younger wrestlers early, and they have several young bucks ready to keep that trend going. This team is very dangerous. Wouldn't be surprised one bit if they come into BIGs tourney ranked #1
PSU: Nolf, Nickal, Retherford, Joseph equals bonus points galore. tOSU has more talent spread out, but PSU has more bonus point scorers than any other team in the BIGs or NCAAs.
Even if 41, 84, 97 fail to get much points at either Tourney, they are still a legit threat to win it all with those four guys. Cortez is good, but 33 in the BIGs is loaded, and I'm not just talking about Clark and Richards. Montoya from Nebbie is tough and dirty. Pletcher from tOSU is legit. Ryan Taylor from Wisconsin can beat them all on a good day.
Suriano will be tough, but this is the BIGs. I think he would benefit a lot from a redshirt year, but Cael wants to win now. Suriano may turn heads with a win here or there over a tough guy with a mid ranking, but he will be overwhelmed by the likes of Gilman, NATO, and Micic. The wins he does get will be decisions and majors. I don't see much bonus points from this kid this year or any of his following years.
Once again, bonus points will keep Cael's ship afloat regardless of other below par performances from other weights.
Iowa: We have a really good experienced team coming back with some gaping holes. The senior class is one of the best classes we've had in a while at Iowa City. Gilman is the leader of this squad, and guys will need to follow his lead if they want to win team titles. Our situation is similar to PSU in regards to our holes in the lineup, but we don't have as many bonus scorers as PSU has. Our hammers at 25, 33, 49 are good to make finals in any tourney, but majority of the wins along the way are usually decisions.
I think Brooks can win it all if he's on next year, at BIGs and NCAAs.
Kemerer is the sure fire high placer PLUS bonus point getter that we need to win team titles.
He's the type of kid that will take third and rack up more team points doing that than the runner up.
41, 65, 97 all HAVE to get points for us to have a chance at either Tourneys. They MUST. We don't have the bonus points to make it without them. Marinelli will need stiffer compeition in the room than the Dardane brothers if he wants to prepare for a True Frosh campaign in the BIGs next year. I think the Bull starts and steamrolls guys not ranked in the top ten and drops several matches to guys in the top 8. Gotta start him tho if Iowa wants to win a team title.
If Gross was still here, 41 would be a solid team point contributor, but we have either Turk or Carton. Realistically, I don't expect much points at this time. This sucks, because this is one of the weakest weights in the country.
No idea who's ahead in the race for 97. Wilke or Holloway are both true frosh and are going to take their bumps against seasoned Big Tens veterans. Vegas Odds tell me not to expect much points here either.
Glaring holes at 41 and 97. Iowa is a combination of both tOSU and PSU in regards to tOSU overall team depth with a few bonus point hammers.
tOSU:
Potential AAs: 9
BIGs Champion threats: 25, 41, 49, 65, 74, 84, Heavy (7)
NCAAs Champion threats: 25, 65, 74, 84, Heavy (5)
psu:
Potential AAs: 10 (Healthy Cassar)
BIGs Champion threats: 49, 57,65,74,84 (5)
NCAAs Champion threats: 49, 57,74, (3)
IOWA:
Potential AAs: 8
BIGs Champion threats: 25, 33, 49, 57, 84 (5)
NCAAs Champion threats: 25, 33, 49, 57, 84 (5)
So, going into the season, I'd be tOSU as in the lead with PSU and Iowa tied for second.
For you poker fans out there, here's how I see each teams starting hands pre-flop
PSU: Under the Gun/ A 10 off suite
They get the ace cause of their three hammers. They're behind, but if the Ace comes through, they take a commanding lead against any hand. They're under the gun cause they want to repeat.
tOSU: Middle position/ 8 8
They won it before and want it again. They are between two powerhouse programs tho. They're ahead statistically pre-flop, but there's a lot of cards yet to be turned over.
IOWA: On the Button/ K Q suited
The "Mom and Dad"
Iowa's on the button because everyone waits to see what we do than follows suit. We have the power to set the tempo. Our program is the last one of the three to win a title, but we're in the best position in years to win it this year.
We're behind, but we have a lot of outs here. If the right cards fall, we can beat any hand out there. Ace can fall on the flop, but Iowa can still turn that into a straight or flush on the river.
