If you’re going to come in here and tell me I need to update my numbers, which are updated daily by the CDC in the link I provided, you should post your source like I did. Or we can all just take random guy on the internet’s word for it.
"We will see a resurgence of the coronavirus in the fall. We won't have a vaccine for 12-18 months"
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
If you’re going to come in here and tell me I need to update my numbers, which are updated daily by the CDC in the link I provided, you should post your source like I did. Or we can all just take random guy on the internet’s word for it.
Couldnt the same be said of influenza. I maybe had it in the fall. Didn’t go to the doctor...didn’t get tested.
that's what my big mouth has been saying on twitter and i get blasted for it. but whatever. that's how i feel.
as far as length of hospital stay - idk if that's true. there were people that came off the cruise ships that tested positive and they had absolutely zero symptoms ever. so i think the length of hospital stays is only among the worst cases.
there's another thing that skews the numbers (posts above have rightly pointed out that the mortality rates are misleading b/c we're measuring deaths :: those tested when there are certainly a large group of people that were never tested or asymptomatic)
but the other thing - they are labeling anyone who had it and died as dying of covid, which isn't justifiable. If you died of heart disease but they tested you for covid and you had it you enter the covid death statistics.
Also flu season is about 5 months long . Everyone is coming at once with Corona.Most people with the flu also don't need a ventilator
This last point was also addressed in the video in my first post. They are not making any distinction between people who died OF covid and people who died WITH covid.
I’ve always wondered with sheer numbers of flu deaths what is the cause and why no need for a ventilator?
All we are gonna hear now is how 2.2 million could've died.But now ONLY 100,000-240,000.See how many people I saved.The key word is I.Under 100,000 will die and it will be what a great job I did.We will be hearing these numbers until the election in November.We were told don't concentrate on the numbers now it's all about the numbers.It went from it's gonna blow away to lookout 2.2 million could die. Corona is serious and everyone should practice social distancing.I think we all need to do our part to save other Americans.
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Mods can we get this "def not a racist but puts the numbers in his username despite knowing what they mean" dumbass banned please?
. who's the nazi?the dude is a good poster and you want him banned for arbitrary numbers in his handle?
Ah yes the good poster with 8 posts ever that all are trying to downplay the seriousness of corona by misrepresenting facts. Weird guy to defend.
the dude is a good poster and you want him banned for arbitrary numbers in his handle?
Do you legitimately think he has those numbers in his username, knowing what they mean, and it isn't a little wink wink? C'mon man.
It’s kind of funny, actually, I’ve used some combination of those two numbers in my various Internet forum usernames for about fifteen years now and only became aware of the other meaning a couple years ago when someone tried to use it to discredit a valid point that I was making.
I couldn’t help but notice that you were unable to counter the point that I was making there.
I too am trying to downplay the seriousness. and i promise you i'm not a white supremacist.
i just a person by facts. he's said nothing inflammatory. and yet you advocate for him to be banned for his username. grow up.
Kwood
As Brix mentioned recently, we just do not have all the data in to know the percentages of anything. The denominator is unknown for who has contracted the disease, because testing has been pathetic. Later, blood samples can be taken to see what antibodies are present to see who had the Virus. So at present, if 80% of people who get it never are part of the sample noted above (because they are asymtomatic or had mild symptoms) , then the denominator is inaccurate by and huge amount.
If you don’t conform to the group thought then you will be ridiculed. It’s pretty crazy times to be living through. The whole 1488 thing is just another example. I had no clue someone assigned meaning to random numbers.
What the heck do the numbers 14 and 88 have to do with being a racist? I guess I'm sheltered......
Your claim is that the coronavirus mortality rate may not be as high, which I agree. Would you also agree the same for those who have the common flu, since many with the common flu don't go to the hospital?
Since you know that most people with the common flu recover at home, would you agree that many people with the coronavirus can't survive without treatment at the hospital? I don't have the numbers, but my assumption is that without medical intervention, the mortality rate for the coronavirus would be much higher. Just look at the numbers of hospitals that are overflowing with patients needing ventilators and extreme specialized care.
1488 is a common white supremacy number, the numbers stand for something specific but idk what off the top of my head. I'm not triggered by it, it's just a very weird thing to include in your username if you know what it means.
I am triggered by this guy downplaying corona and when I saw his username and newish account I assumed he was just a troll. Apologies to him if I was off base on the username accusation but I stand by my corona comments. I know someone likely getting pulled off a ventilator today so anyone spouting "just the flu" type bs is bothering me.
Aside from the username discussion, I hope this ends up not being as serious as it could be due to the actions people are taking. Downplaying this and acting like it's a joke accomplishes nothing but I'm done arguing it on here. Go hawks.
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You sound uneducated on how exponential growth works. Are you not hearing what is happening in hospitals around the country yet? Not watching the nurses in Atlanta, NOLA, NYC, WA?
Knows the association, but still associates them with identity. Yeah....
The flu mortality rate is calculated using an equation that extrapolates the number of people who have likely been infected based on the data from random tests and the number of people who require treatment. This means that the .01% mortality rate factors in people who get sick and never seek treatment and people who are infected but show no symptoms. The estimated mortality rate for covid is not factoring any of those people into the numbers.
You can read the details of how the CDC estimates the flu mortality rate here:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
I understand how exponential growth works. I’m saying that if it was going to happen in this case we would have seen it by now. The first case in the US was on January 21st, over two months ago. The virus was allowed to spread freely for six weeks before we all locked ourselves in our houses and shut the whole country down. I think that if this virus warranted the panic that it is causing there would already be a lot more than 3,000 deaths.
I also put more stock in actual data than the rumors and anecdotes from nurses.
I do not usually post on here any longer for a number of reasons, HOWEVER: do some of you really think that it is simply a coincidence that where people in authority urged citizens to carry on their normal everyday lives and even told them to attend St Patricks’ day parades, we have the highest number of infections and deaths? There is the fact that this virus has an extremely exponential infection rate. Therefore, the need for social distancing.
When this is over and the threat has been contained it will end up being a lose lose situation for many of you. I would hate to think it would be a win win. If the death rate is able to be managed and kept reasonably low this will all have been a hoax and over blown. If the death rate sky rockets it will be that the powers that be have waited to long and not done enough.
Does it really matter what the exact cause of death is? You are still dead. Is it ok that those who are most susceptible are older or have an immune deficiency? I admit I am older, however, I am even more concerned for my daughters and everyone else’s family that may become infected because there are some that seem not to care if they pass this disease on to others.
Just be real...look at Italy and Spain and then continue to say this is just the common flue!
When this is over and the threat has been contained it will end up being a lose lose situation for many of you. I would hate to think it would be a win win. If the death rate is able to be managed and kept reasonably low this will all have been a hoax and over blown. If the death rate sky rockets it will be that the powers that be have waited to long and not done enough.
Does it really matter what the exact cause of death is? You are still dead. Is it ok that those who are most susceptible are older or have an immune deficiency? I admit I am older, however, I am even more concerned for my daughters and everyone else’s family that may become infected because there are some that seem not to care if they pass this disease on to others.
Just be real...look at Italy and Spain and then continue to say this is just the common flue!
Okay, fine. So, lets halve the number of COVID-19 mortality rates to 1-2%, which is still 10-20x more than the death rate for the common flu.
You got to be a troll. You are focusing on that mortality number to make your point that COVID-19 is on par with the common flu. Who cares about states asking retired medical professionals and students to help with this pandemic. Who cares about how easy it is to transmit the virus. Who cares that there is not a cure for it yet. Who cares that hospitals are overflowing with patients who need life saving care. Who cares that military hospital ships are joining the fight to help relieve pressure on over extended hospitals. Who cares that make shift hospitals are being hastily constructed. Who cares that hospitals don't have enough ventilators.
I know of at least one who doesn't care. You! You seem like one of those not complying with stay at home orders, thereby making this situation worst.
Well there are now 4,609 dead. Is that enough? It will top 10,000 by Saturday. Will that make you think it’s real? Don’t get me wrong, the panic and mass hysteria is over the top but this is real and it’s likely that the measures we are taking as a country are warranted.
2 points. You don't actually understand how exponential growth happens. Quick lesson. A lily pad invasion happens in a pond. One day 1, there is 1 lily pad. On day 60, the pond is completely covered. What day then is the pond 50% covered? Day 30? No, because it grows exponentially. Day 59 is when it is 50% covered. So, numbers "look" low until it explodes, and at that point, it is too late! (see Italy, Spain, New York City...) So quick and drastic mitigation are required.
2nd point. Mortality rates are not usually calculated until AFTER the wave comes through. We will have no idea how many are infected and how many die. Both numbers are critical to calculating mortality. So, any mortality comparison to the flu is baseless. Until we see final COVID numbers.
2nd point. Mortality rates are not usually calculated until AFTER the wave comes through. We will have no idea how many are infected and how many die. Both numbers are critical to calculating mortality. So, any mortality comparison to the flu is baseless. Until we see final COVID numbers.
I’m not the one that brought mortality rates into the discussion. I’m only saying that the way the covid mortality rate is being calculated obviously leads to it looking much higher than it likely is in actuality.
Good ideas Don. But increasing hospital capacity in the next 6 months most likely won’t and can’t happen. How would hospitals get it done and who pays for it?
Actually, no there should not be a lot more than the 3,000 deaths as you mention currently. It just got started fairly recently (January 21st) and the numbers will always be low in the beginning.
Average date from infection to death in Wuhan Hospitals from a study published in the Lancet was 18.5 days. 22 days for those who recovered. These were hospitalizations. It takes awhile for the deaths to show up. There is a time lag from infection to death.
US COVID-19 cases:
February 29- 68 cases- 1 death
March 31- 188,172 cases- 3,873 death.s
At the current rate of increase if it stays the same we should see 10,000 deaths around April 7th plus or minus and 20,000 cases before April 15th.
Last year IIRC CDC numbers of fatalities for "just the flu" were about 23,500. So we should reach that number before the end of April even if it slows down from the current rates of infection. Let's say April 21st so then it would be 3 months from the first US case.
Normal flu season is what.....6-8 months long and COVID-19 will most likely go past last years flu deaths in only 3 months and continue on to much higher numbers. COVID-19 is just getting started and has not been around very long yet.
If COVID-19 had gotten started back in October in the US when "the flu" got rolling you would see much more elevated numbers right now and it would start to make more sense.
There is no scientific information out there that says it will slow down over the summer either.
Not trying to pick fights but if this thing is as bad as everyone says it is then why are we not shutting down more "non-essential" businesses so 500 people are not showing up to work and spreading it.
We don't know the apex, but Farr's law says there will be a bell curve. All the expert agree on this.
Currently several drugs in pivotal studies (phase III, random, double blind).If efficacy and safety demonstrated vaccine available 16-20 months. Also number of drugs in Phase I studies (animal study) and number drugs in Phase II studies (select human studies). Possible both vaccine and therapy within "sight". We are all in it together.
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Not sure I could go back and find that info I posted, but IIRC it was % from patients that had been hospitalized and treated in the healthcare system. So total virus infected numbers would not enter into figuring those % unless I am not thinking clearly on it.
Yep, you didn't. But you sure did make that a center piece to your argument. Though you haven't addressed how much medical care is needed to help those that are flooding hospitals. Without care, how much higher would the death rate be from coronavirus as opposed to the common flu?
Whatever dude. I actually hope that you are right. I hope everything is overblown and the number of casualties are low. However, all indications say otherwise.
This is true. Both counts, except often have to remind people, therapy and vaccines are two different things. Vaccine estimate is close, but, we may have an "advantage" that IF this is seasonal, we can get to phase 2 trials in South America when it migrates down there. And, at least 3 Pharma companies have stepped up and said they will forgo risk assessments and begin to prepare during phase 2 testing to manufacturing drug. (phase 1, in-vitro phase-2 in-vivo dosing amounts phase-3 double-blind). most companies wait until phase 3 just in case it might now work, and they don't want to be stuck with massive amounts of an unusable drug. But that then creates a lag time from approval to market.
Therapeutic trials are much faster, and from data being published, close. The hydroxychloroquine/zpac study in France expanded to 80 pts and is being run at 6 major hospitals right now in US. Not double-blinded, but will be peer-reviewed. Other is remdesmivir, which is being run double-blind at i heard 4 major sites, including Omaha. Therapeutics don't cure the disease, but reduce the viral load by interfering with the replication of the RNA in the cell, and reduces effects on the cell and allows the body's immune system to be more efficient.
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