"We will see a resurgence of the coronavirus in the fall. We won't have a vaccine for 12-18 months"

[SPOONER]

If you don’t conform to the group thought then you will be ridiculed. It’s pretty crazy times to be living through. The whole 1488 thing is just another example. I had no clue someone assigned meaning to random numbers.

I'd say if you don't conform to fact you're going to be ridiculed.

I didn't know anything about 1488 until today. I learned something new. I have no reason to believe our new friend chose his name because of that. His response to the question is reasonable.

 

[SPOONER]

Good ideas Don. But increasing hospital capacity in the next 6 months most likely won’t and can’t happen. How would hospitals get it done and who pays for it?

The belief (and I'm no expert nor can I vouch for this belief) is that because of the prior infection, advances in treatment of symptoms, advances in testing, etc. then not as many beds will be needed.

Not trying to pick fights but if this thing is as bad as everyone says it is then why are we not shutting down more "non-essential" businesses so 500 people are not showing up to work and spreading it.

Certainly is the controversy, isn't it? Iowa's analysis says that so many of the jobs in this state are essential (ag economy), that imposing something on the remaining individuals is not worth any incremental gain against the virus from them not working.

I’m not the one that brought mortality rates into the discussion. I’m only saying that the way the covid mortality rate is being calculated obviously leads to it looking much higher than it likely is in actuality.

I will admit I haven't read all of your posts but like many you seem to be ignorant of what the virus can do to a healthcare system and available medical care (for all). That is the absolute, #1 reason we have taken these steps as a nation/state/community. I hate to be anti-media but it looks to me like they have lost sight of this.

 

[HawkFan1986]

that's what my big mouth has been saying on twitter and i get blasted for it. but whatever. that's how i feel.

as far as length of hospital stay - idk if that's true. there were people that came off the cruise ships that tested positive and they had absolutely zero symptoms ever. so i think the length of hospital stays is only among the worst cases.

there's another thing that skews the numbers (posts above have rightly pointed out that the mortality rates are misleading b/c we're measuring deaths :: those tested when there are certainly a large group of people that were never tested or asymptomatic)

but the other thing - they are labeling anyone who had it and died as dying of covid, which isn't justifiable. If you died of heart disease but they tested you for covid and you had it you enter the covid death statistics.

There are so many unknowns at this point that we’re all basically guess at how lethal this virus is. Until testing ramps up we simply can’t know anything.

 

[ss7]

What’s the SS in YOUR username referencing? Nazi much?

The throwaway email account I made for my rivals account is somethingsomething7@oneofthefreeemailservers.com. Also, my dad had a bitchin' SS Camaro when I was little.

But you bring up a good point that I honestly never thought of. And since an association with that group is about the last thing I would want to cultivate, I'll probably change my username.

And for the record, I didn't make any accusations. I simply asked a question. But you sure knew what those numbers reference.

 

[uncle jim 62]

Hmm, I read this whole thread and all I could come up with is hmm. Some people who are less worried about the virus, I suggest you help out with things like meals on wheels, food shelves ect. Many of the usual drivers/workers are not willing to do that at this point. People will always have opposing views on things and that's normal.

 

[LetsGoHawks83]

Hmm, I read this whole thread and all I could come up with is hmm. Some people who are less worried about the virus, I suggest you help out with things like meals on wheels, food shelves ect. Many of the usual drivers/workers are not willing to do that at this point. People will always have opposing views on things and that's normal.

I'm not as worried about the virus as some, but I'm on board with "safer at home" and "flattening the curve"

I'm young and healthy enough that I SHOULD be ok if I catch it, but want to do my part to prevent others in the higher risk from getting it. Like most other that may be lower risk...I still know and have family members that are higher risk, so want to help protect them too.

Do your part, but Don't freak out

 

[rossel 33]

And early information from those who have recovered is showing that about 28% have heart damage

Between 30-40% of recovered cases show impaired lung function also.

The virus attatches to the Ace2 receptor on cells. There are a lot of Ace2 receptors on lung cells hence the bilateral pneumonia commonly developing.

There are more Ace2 receptors in your heart, liver, & colon, than in your lungs. Hence other organ damage. Not just pneumonia.

Kwoodhawk, do you have any good references on the heart and lung damage after recovery? Thx

 

[rossel 33]

not trolling...this is a legit question...(and for the sake of transparency i'm on the 'we're gonna bee ok' side of things)

if the regular flu infects more americans per year than covid 19 currently has, why are the hospitals overrun now, but haven't been with flu patients in the past?

Different viruses have different disease presentations. Influenza is one type of virus, coronavirus is another. Even within the influenza family of viruses there are numerous subtypes. Same for corona.

Another factor is we have a vaccine available every year for the influenza virus, which offers protection. Most who die from influenza did not have the vaccine. As you already know, we are racing to find a vaccine for coronavirus, but are not yet there.

 

[rossel 33]

all the leading doctors are saying there is a high likelihood that once you get it you won't get it again.

Not quite so simple as that.

After fighting off the virus, the body generally does have immunity, but how long that immunity lasts for coronavirus is not yet known.

It is likely one would have immunity for a while following recovery, but would it prevent disease a year from now... or two years? Not really known. Also, virus can mutate, so your immunity may not offer full protection in the future.

 

[rossel 33]

If you’re going to come in here and tell me I need to update my numbers, which are updated daily by the CDC in the link I provided, you should post your source like I did. Or we can all just take random guy on the internet’s word for it.

Yesterday you said there were "under 3000 deaths" in U.S. from coronavirus. That was incorrect. I pointed out that the actual number for yesterday was 3909.

3909 was the correct number yesterday, but today it is 4,633 deaths, an increase of over 700 deaths in 24 hours.

The source:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

[14HAWKS88]

Yesterday you said there were "under 3000 deaths" in U.S. from coronavirus. That was incorrect. I pointed out that the actual number for yesterday was 3909.

3909 was the correct number yesterday, but today it is 4,633 deaths, an increase of over 700 deaths in 24 hours.

The source:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Yesterday there were a little over 2,800 deaths according to the CDC webpage, which I linked in my original post. I don’t remember the exact number and they update it daily, but it was less than 3,000.

Today it says there have now been a total of 3,603 deaths:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

You seem pretty convinced that Johns Hopkins has the correct numbers and the CDC is wrong, but I would say that in my mind they seem to have equal credibility so I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree. Also, thanks for posting your source.

 

[14HAWKS88]

The belief (and I'm no expert nor can I vouch for this belief) is that because of the prior infection, advances in treatment of symptoms, advances in testing, etc. then not as many beds will be needed.



Certainly is the controversy, isn't it? Iowa's analysis says that so many of the jobs in this state are essential (ag economy), that imposing something on the remaining individuals is not worth any incremental gain against the virus from them not working.



I will admit I haven't read all of your posts but like many you seem to be ignorant of what the virus can do to a healthcare system and available medical care (for all). That is the absolute, #1 reason we have taken these steps as a nation/state/community. I hate to be anti-media but it looks to me like they have lost sight of this.

I can’t say this for certain, as I don’t work in a hospital, but I would be willing to bet that at least some of the current overloading of the healthcare system, if that is in fact happening, is probably due to an extra cautious approach to treating and monitoring patients with the virus that is being driven by the panic surrounding it.

 

[14HAWKS88]

Well there are now 4,609 dead. Is that enough? It will top 10,000 by Saturday. Will that make you think it’s real? Don’t get me wrong, the panic and mass hysteria is over the top but this is real and it’s likely that the measures we are taking as a country are warranted.

I never said that I don’t believe that it’s real. I believe that coronaviruses are a real thing that contribute to roughly 7%-15% of flu cases every year according to the doctor in the video that I linked on the first page. We agree that the panic and mass hysteria are over the top.

I don’t think that the measures we have taken are warranted and my biggest concern is that we are so caught up in the panic over the virus that we are not thinking about the possible long term consequences of taking these measures and the possibility that they may be even worse than the virus itself.

 

[SPOONER]

I can’t say this for certain, as I don’t work in a hospital, but I would be willing to bet that at least some of the current overloading of the healthcare system, if that is in fact happening, is probably due to an extra cautious approach to treating and monitoring patients with the virus that is being driven by the panic surrounding it.

Pretty safe bet that if any of that occurred it ended weeks ago. Hospitals have been critical care only for some time now, in preparation for the inevitable swell. If you think people are sitting in NY hospital beds with the sniffles you’re fooling yourself.

I never said that I don’t believe that it’s real. I believe that coronaviruses are a real thing that contribute to roughly 7%-15% of flu cases every year according to the doctor in the video that I linked on the first page. We agree that the panic and mass hysteria are over the top.

I don’t think that the measures we have taken are warranted and my biggest concern is that we are so caught up in the panic over the virus that we are not thinking about the possible long term consequences of taking these measures and the possibility that they may be even worse than the virus itself.

I don’t know how one can possibly read about what’s happening in terms of lack of hospital beds, protective equipment and ventilators and think this stuff isn’t warranted. There does come a point where the measures are worse than the virus but we aren’t there yet. Not by a long shot. There’s absolutely nothing worse than a healthcare system that can’t respond to someone in need.

 

[moosemonster]

Yesterday there were a little over 2,800 deaths according to the CDC webpage, which I linked in my original post. I don’t remember the exact number and they update it daily, but it was less than 3,000.

Today it says there have now been a total of 3,603 deaths:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

You seem pretty convinced that Johns Hopkins has the correct numbers and the CDC is wrong, but I would say that in my mind they seem to have equal credibility so I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree. Also, thanks for posting your source.

From midnight to midnight (Eastern time), the CDC uses figures as of 4:00 pm the prior day. That way they avoid having figures that change throughout the day. But after 4:00 pm today, Johns Hopkins will use today’s updated numbers while the CDC is still reporting those from 4:00 yesterday. That is the reason the CDC numbers lag behind in the evening.

 

[uncle jim 62]

14 whatever18 what is the number of deaths needed till you think serious? or should I say over blown with unrealistic fear. Let me guess somewhere between 100,0000 and 240,000.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Kwoodhawk, do you have any good references on the heart and lung damage after recovery? Thx

If you do twitter look for Laurel Coons @LaurelCoons and go down her thread a ways. She had posted something about the heart numbers within the last couple days IIRC. Not sure where it came from. She has a lot of good info, easily readable.

Not sure where I saw the lung info.

I have had trouble on my computer recently trying to bring anything over from twitter.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

We don't know the apex, but Farr's law says there will be a bell curve. All the expert agree on this.

I thought the idea we're trying to bring about is to make it a xylophone curve............

 

[bnicolls]

Actually, no there should not be a lot more than the 3,000 deaths as you mention currently. It just got started fairly recently (January 21st) and the numbers will always be low in the beginning.

Average date from infection to death in Wuhan Hospitals from a study published in the Lancet was 18.5 days. 22 days for those who recovered. These were hospitalizations. It takes awhile for the deaths to show up. There is a time lag from infection to death.

US COVID-19 cases:

February 29- 68 cases- 1 death

March 31- 188,172 cases- 3,873 death.s

At the current rate of increase if it stays the same we should see 10,000 deaths around April 7th plus or minus and 20,000 cases before April 15th.

Last year IIRC CDC numbers of fatalities for "just the flu" were about 23,500. So we should reach that number before the end of April even if it slows down from the current rates of infection. Let's say April 21st so then it would be 3 months from the first US case.

Normal flu season is what.....6-8 months long and COVID-19 will most likely go past last years flu deaths in only 3 months and continue on to much higher numbers. COVID-19 is just getting started and has not been around very long yet.

If COVID-19 had gotten started back in October in the US when "the flu" got rolling you would see much more elevated numbers right now and it would start to make more sense.

There is no scientific information out there that says it will slow down over the summer either.

If this Coronavirus operates like all its brethren, then it will slow with warmer temps. We do not know that yet, but there is evidence from all past Corona's that this does happen.

No one is saying that this is not a serious issue. Context needs to occur however. Initial estimates by Ferguson that US deaths would be in the millions is not even close. The latest AMA estimate is 80K. Yes, that is a lot, but not millions

At some point too, the government cannot keep printing money and expect no reprocussions. We got to re-start the economy in 30-45 days. Entire industries and small businesses have been sacrificed. The government will not be able to solve it all. How do you balance ruining the lives of many to save a few? That is a serious question that needs to be addressed.

We know who is "At Risk". When "go" s announced to re-start the economy, we know what these people need to do. It is very simple. By then, May 1 we should see some solid medical solutions

 

[grapplefann]

The estimates of the mortality rate of corona are based on how many people have died and how many have tested positive. The only people who get tested are the people who were sick enough to be hospitalized so of course that skews the numbers. There have likely been hundreds of thousands more people in the US who have had the virus and didn’t get sick enough to go to the hospital and so they weren’t even tested. That will obviously make the mortality rate seem higher. This is explained in the video in my first post.

Why are the hospitals filling and the deaths mounting in hotspots right now? The overall mortality rate looks like it will be higher and happen more quickly than the flu. Remember this is Novel coronavirus. It's new, and we don't know enough about it yet to predict.
The reason that your posts seem to attract abuse is that they encourage noncompliance, or an early end to compliance with the social distancing and stay-at-home mitigation measures. As we currently understand this virus, this endangers everyone, particularly if it happens on a large scale. You have only 16 posts on a wrestling board. Did you create this new username just to undermine public health restrictions here?

 

[14HAWKS88]

From midnight to midnight (Eastern time), the CDC uses figures as of 4:00 pm the prior day. That way they avoid having figures that change throughout the day. But after 4:00 pm today, Johns Hopkins will use today’s updated numbers while the CDC is still reporting those from 4:00 yesterday. That is the reason the CDC numbers lag behind in the evening.

Thanks I didn’t know that.

 

[grapplefann]

If this Coronavirus operates like all its brethren, then it will slow with warmer temps. We do not know that yet, but there is evidence from all past Corona's that this does happen.

No one is saying that this is not a serious issue. Context needs to occur however. Initial estimates by Ferguson that US deaths would be in the millions is not even close. The latest AMA estimate is 80K. Yes, that is a lot, but not millions

At some point too, the government cannot keep printing money and expect no repercussions. We got to re-start the economy in 30-45 days. Entire industries and small businesses have been sacrificed. The government will not be able to solve it all. How do you balance ruining the lives of many to save a few? That is a serious question that needs to be addressed.

We know who is "At Risk". When "go" s announced to re-start the economy, we know what these people need to do. It is very simple. By then, May 1 we should see some solid medical solutions

Many of us feel that we could outrun this virus because we aren't one of "these people," we don't have to work physically close to groups of people like service or retail, or we have enough money to just weather the storm and pay others to take the risks. But what if I could tell you for sure that one of the next 20K deaths above the 80K would be you, or the person you love the most, would you still feel that way? This virus hits way more people than just those at risk, particularly doctors and nurses on the front lines. I think we'll need them.

Pick your poison. You'll end up ruining the lives of many either way: prolonged mitigation or prolonged outbreaks, deaths, and ongoing market uncertainty from a failure to mitigate properly. Strong mitigation may allow a sooner restart of the economy that will save it far more than letting this virus run amok. The reason the death rate is so low this far is BECAUSE of the strong mitigation that's practiced here and abroad. There is no free lunch. You know that. You're a wrestler. I also hope that by May 1 we have abundant testing, some solid medical therapies, and much greater herd immunity, but this is certainly not a simple situation.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

If this Coronavirus operates like all its brethren, then it will slow with warmer temps. We do not know that yet, but there is evidence from all past Corona's that this does happen.

No one is saying that this is not a serious issue. Context needs to occur however. Initial estimates by Ferguson that US deaths would be in the millions is not even close. The latest AMA estimate is 80K. Yes, that is a lot, but not millions

At some point too, the government cannot keep printing money and expect no reprocussions. We got to re-start the economy in 30-45 days. Entire industries and small businesses have been sacrificed. The government will not be able to solve it all. How do you balance ruining the lives of many to save a few? That is a serious question that needs to be addressed.

We know who is "At Risk". When "go" s announced to re-start the economy, we know what these people need to do. It is very simple. By then, May 1 we should see some solid medical solutions

Agree! Decisions need to be made. What is the correct answer? How long to keep things quiet? When to start up again?

Many jobs/businesses GONE right now and possibly never to return.

Sadness and struggle everywhere and hard decisions. We need some Miracles and soon.

 

[bnicolls]

Many of us feel that we could outrun this virus because we aren't one of "these people," we don't have to work physically close to groups of people like service or retail, or we have enough money to just weather the storm and pay others to take the risks. But what if I could tell you for sure that one of the next 20K deaths above the 80K would be you, or the person you love the most, would you still feel that way? This virus hits way more people than just those at risk, particularly doctors and nurses on the front lines. I think we'll need them.

Pick your poison. You'll end up ruining the lives of many either way: prolonged mitigation or prolonged outbreaks, deaths, and ongoing market uncertainty from a failure to mitigate properly. Strong mitigation may allow a sooner restart of the economy that will save it far more than letting this virus run amok. The reason the death rate is so low this far is BECAUSE of the strong mitigation that's practiced here and abroad. There is no free lunch. You know that. You're a wrestler. I also hope that by May 1 we have abundant testing, some solid medical therapies, and much greater herd immunity, but this is certainly not a simple situation.

I'd still make the same decision under your scenario above.

The cost cannot outweigh the benefit at some point. You can choose too. Would you wait a year and wreck everything, leaving nothing in this country? Interested to see your response

 

[bnicolls]

Agree! Decisions need to be made. What is the correct answer? How long to keep things quiet? When to start up again?

Many jobs/businesses GONE right now and possibly never to return.

Sadness and struggle everywhere and hard decisions. We need some Miracles and soon.

Kwood

Are you in Missouri near that Lindenwood tourney? I'll have to visit sometime so we can have a coupla sodie pops

 

[thom67]

I can’t say this for certain, as I don’t work in a hospital, but I would be willing to bet that at least some of the current overloading of the healthcare system, if that is in fact happening, is probably due to an extra cautious approach to treating and monitoring patients with the virus that is being driven by the panic surrounding it.

It really. Patients are only admitted to hospitals when they cannot be cared for at home. If the patient can drink and has no respiratory distress, they most likely will not be admitted. At this time, with hospital beds at a premium, patients who might have been admitted at a different time, are being sent home.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Many of us feel that we could outrun this virus because we aren't one of "these people," we don't have to work physically close to groups of people like service or retail, or we have enough money to just weather the storm and pay others to take the risks. But what if I could tell you for sure that one of the next 20K deaths above the 80K would be you, or the person you love the most, would you still feel that way? This virus hits way more people than just those at risk, particularly doctors and nurses on the front lines. I think we'll need them.

Pick your poison. You'll end up ruining the lives of many either way: prolonged mitigation or prolonged outbreaks, deaths, and ongoing market uncertainty from a failure to mitigate properly. Strong mitigation may allow a sooner restart of the economy that will save it far more than letting this virus run amok. The reason the death rate is so low this far is BECAUSE of the strong mitigation that's practiced here and abroad. There is no free lunch. You know that. You're a wrestler. I also hope that by May 1 we have abundant testing, some solid medical therapies, and much greater herd immunity, but this is certainly not a simple situation.

Just saw today that 80% of the poeple who got infected were infected by someone without symptoms.

Georgia finally decided to issue stay at home orders that start on Friday and run thru April 13th.

In his press conference the Ga. Governor said something about new info that made them aware that people could become infected from people who had no symptoms. Thinking he may have not really been following along what was happening in the World very well lately.

And then it was just revealed today that Georgia has 47 long term care facilities that are being investigatred for COVID-19 outbreaks. The State Dept. of Public Health had not released any info for the past 10 days on possible outbreaks is why the number is so large all at once.

Appears not everyone is working from the same playbook.

Georgia and several other Southern States may not peak with cases along with the rest of the Country.

What kinds of problems will that create for everyone else?

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Kwood

Are you in Missouri near that Lindenwood tourney? I'll have to visit sometime so we can have a coupla sodie pops

Yes, I am. 2 blocks to the Interstate and 30 minutes of clear sailing.

I still remember seeing Matt McD's Mom yelling/screaming during one of his matches one year. Knew immediately who she was. You can usually spot the Mom's pretty quick at some of these smaller attended Tourneys

It has been a nice Tourney to go to. Nice to see some of the Freshman and what they can do right off the bat Several years ago went up close to the railing standing next to another man and watched Sam Brooks 1st collegate match. Sam lost. Turns out it was his Dad. Dad said he had beaten that same kid in high school couple years ago, but the kid had been at Illinois for a year and made some progress that Sammy hadn't yet.

I know you are pretty busy, but if you ever get on twitter. You might want to read John P. Hussman @hussmanjp He has some good info/numbers/projections on the virus and is pretty even and balanced with it. Very clear and readable.

 

[rossel 33]

Initial estimates by Ferguson that US deaths would be in the millions is not even close. The latest AMA estimate is 80K. Yes, that is a lot, but not millions

The original estimates by the Imperial College study (of which Ferguson was part of) predicted a range of deaths under different scenarios, ranging from "doing nothing" to different levels of mitigation and suppression.

The 2.2 million dying was only the high estimate for the U.S. deaths, in a scenario where nothing was done. Thankfully most states and communities have acted and we won't be headed down that road.

 

[bluroptimo]

The estimates of the mortality rate of corona are based on how many people have died and how many have tested positive. The only people who get tested are the people who were sick enough to be hospitalized so of course that skews the numbers. There have likely been hundreds of thousands more people in the US who have had the virus and didn’t get sick enough to go to the hospital and so they weren’t even tested. That will obviously make the mortality rate seem higher. This is explained in the video in my first post.

Same with the flu. There are people that get it and never get tested for it. They get better, they don’t die and their data is absent from the pool. So the 0.1% mortality rate is also skewed. If you have good evidence one is skewed more than the other I’d like to see it but I don’t think you do. And there were a lot of people who died of CV who weren’t labeled as such here and abroad.

Italy is currently at 10% of those infected with CV have died. Not the same as the flu which is 0.1%. In other words, 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10. So how about a game. You can catch CV or last season’s Flu. Which one do you go with? This is not an IQ test...oh yes it is.

And vaccines take months and months of human testing to be deemed safe. Five years after Zika and we still don’t have a vaccine. And look at the vaccines for Denghe and AIDS that had nasty side effects before they got pulled.

The day the world says, “surprise, CV is just another flu” is never.

 

[rossel 33]

Yesterday there were a little over 2,800 deaths according to the CDC webpage, which I linked in my original post. I don’t remember the exact number and they update it daily, but it was less than 3,000.

Today it says there have now been a total of 3,603 deaths:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

You seem pretty convinced that Johns Hopkins has the correct numbers and the CDC is wrong, but I would say that in my mind they seem to have equal credibility so I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree. Also, thanks for posting your source.

As moosemonster pointed out, the CDC numbers are not up to the minute. Johns Hopkins is.

So it's not a matter of CDC being "wrong," but rather how up to date are they.

The CDC site even says:

<<In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.>>

Johns Hopkins, updated in real time, now shows 5,119 deaths in U.S. as of this evening. This number is rising pretty rapidly.

I'm puzzled why anyone would choose to ignore what Dr Fauci, Dr Birx and so many other leading experts are saying about the seriousness of this pandemic.

There is exponential growth going on. Hospitals are being overwhelmed in many cities, healthcare workers are overworked in the hot areas, with some getting sick and dying. And we are no where near the worst of it.

 

[so cal hawkfan]

The throwaway email account I made for my rivals account is somethingsomething7@oneofthefreeemailservers.com. Also, my dad had a bitchin' SS Camaro when I was little.

But you bring up a good point that I honestly never thought of. And since an association with that group is about the last thing I would want to cultivate, I'll probably change my username.

And for the record, I didn't make any accusations. I simply asked a question. But you sure knew what those numbers reference.

Just pointing out the silly inference towards the other user name. 20+ years of Southern California law enforcement (former gang supervisor) has taught me all kinds of ridiculous WP bullsh*t

 

[wasdt21]

i went with super sport,crashed one when i was 17

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Just saw today that 80% of the poeple who got infected were infected by someone without symptoms.

Georgia finally decided to issue stay at home orders that start on Friday and run thru April 13th.

In his press conference the Ga. Governor said something about new info that made them aware that people could become infected from people who had no symptoms. Thinking he may have not really been following along what was happening in the World very well lately.

And then it was just revealed today that Georgia has 47 long term care facilities that are being investigatred for COVID-19 outbreaks. The State Dept. of Public Health had not released any info for the past 10 days on possible outbreaks is why the number is so large all at once.

Appears not everyone is working from the same playbook.

Georgia and several other Southern States may not peak with cases along with the rest of the Country.

What kinds of problems will that create for everyone else?

 

[bnicolls]

Yes, I am. 2 blocks to the Interstate and 30 minutes of clear sailing.

I still remember seeing Matt McD's Mom yelling/screaming during one of his matches one year. Knew immediately who she was. You can usually spot the Mom's pretty quick at some of these smaller attended Tourneys

It has been a nice Tourney to go to. Nice to see some of the Freshman and what they can do right off the bat Several years ago went up close to the railing standing next to another man and watched Sam Brooks 1st collegate match. Sam lost. Turns out it was his Dad. Dad said he had beaten that same kid in high school couple years ago, but the kid had been at Illinois for a year and made some progress that Sammy hadn't yet.

I know you are pretty busy, but if you ever get on twitter. You might want to read John P. Hussman @hussmanjp He has some good info/numbers/projections on the virus and is pretty even and balanced with it. Very clear and readable.

I'll google Hussman. Multiple person texts are the extent of my social media......well, and here because all we talk about is Iowa Wrestling

 

[grapplefann]

I'd still make the same decision under your scenario above.

The cost cannot outweigh the benefit at some point. You can choose too. Would you wait a year and wreck everything, leaving nothing in this country? Interested to see your response

As I said, pick your poison. The "at some point" you mention is critical. No one in their right mind would wait a year, unless they hate us. First you mention May 1, and now you say it's a year? How did you get from here to there? Now that's a slippery slope!

If I were calling the shots, I'd be checking new infection rates on a week by week basis all across the country. I'd pick an infection rate ahead of time that could be manageable by tracking and isolating (can't be zero for obvious reasons), and then start things up again in the spots where new infections fall below that rate. If a hot spot flared up, it would have to go back to limited access again at that spot. I think that this is what the administration is doing right now. Those are just the standard best practices for public health administration. And make no mistake, this administration will NOT restart things any later than they have to, for obvious reasons. Ultimately, this requires widespread testing though, which we don't have yet. Without adequate testing, we're flying blind.

I know this is super-frustrating for people with their livelihood on the line, helplessly watching their businesses crumble brick by brick. Everyone would like a fixed date when things will begin to get back to normal. The economic situation gets worse day by day, week by week, and month by month. For some people, the date that prevents significant or even total damage has already come and gone. If I were forced to choose a date, given my limited understanding, I'd guess some time in late May to mid-June. But what the hell do I know? Hope I'm very pessimistic. Even then, the economic damage would take months or even years to recover.

Please know that everyone on this board is rooting for your ongoing success. We all thank you for your support of our team, and we would like nothing better than for all this mess to disappear tomorrow. Stay safe and happy.

 

[lookleft goright]

Some thoughts to ponder about getting out of this mess and how bad it really is or isn't.
POSTED ON APRIL 2, 2020 BY SCOTT JOHNSON IN CORONAVIRUS
THE WUHAN VIRUS: SIX NOTES & QUERIES
The economic devastation wrought by the pandemic continues as we see from the news this morning that another 6.6 million Americans filed unemployment compensation claims last week. For those keeping score at home, that brings the two-week total to about 10 million due to the self-imposed economic shutdown. In the spirit of inquiry and concern, and subject to correction, I have put my head together with that of our friend Brian Sullivan to compile the following notes and queries in the form of bullet points. I trust there is no harm in asking:

• New York has 10 times more Wuhan virus cases per capita than the rest of the country. If banning travel from China made sense, why doesn’t it make sense to restrict the interstate travel of New Yorkers in some fashion?

• The elderly and those with underlying health issues are most at risk of dying from Wuhan virus. Why don’t we find ways to isolate and protect them without shutting the entire country down?

• The United States has reported 14 deaths per million of population. Italy and Spain have reported over 200 deaths per million. France, England, and Germany have reported an average of 35 deaths per million. Critics claim Trump’s response is costing American lives. If relatively fewer Americans have died than every other major European country, what is the basis for the critics’ charge?

• Governor Cuomo said New York would start enrolling patients in clinical trials to test hydroxychloroquine last week, but the trials are described as “not yet recruiting” on the ClinicalTrials.gov site? Why are these trials delayed? (Note: Brian adds: “There is typically a long lag time from the time you post a trial on ClinicalTrials.gov to the time it is activated and ready to enroll patients…my concern is about whether NY and the feds can get out of the way so the regulatory and logistical burdens that hamper rapid activation and then enrollment are eliminated.”)

• On January 21 the first case of Wuhan virus was confirmed. Ten days later, after Trump promulgated his order limiting travel from China, critics condemned the step as unnecessary and xenophobic. Are these critics still of the same opinion? (Note: Thank “The Senator who saw the coronavirus coming.”)

• The model Minnesota government officials used to justify our current shutdown policies projected that 1.5 percent, or 74,000, of all Minnesotans could die from the Wuhan virus. If these modelers used these same assumptions to estimate deaths in the United States, their model would project 5,000,000 Americans deaths. This is roughly 3 times more deaths per capita than died from the Spanish flu in 1918-19. Do Minnesota government officials think the Wuhan virus is possibly 3x more deadly than the Spanish flu? What model are they using?

 

[Franisdaman]

Sorry to get this thread back on track but I have read where if universities don't get students back on campus by the fall, then it's going to be hard to start up sporting seasons.

There are so many unknowns. Students were sent home; when will they be allowed back? Athletes are locked out of their facilities. We can only hope for the best.

 

[grapplefann]

• New York has 10 times more Wuhan virus cases per capita than the rest of the country. If banning travel from China made sense, why doesn’t it make sense to restrict the interstate travel of New Yorkers in some fashion?
YES, and that entire metro area maybe for a short time.
• The elderly and those with underlying health issues are most at risk of dying from Wuhan virus. Why don’t we find ways to isolate and protect them without shutting the entire country down?
Too Late. If you like, they could move your grandpa into a little tent camp in South Texas. I hear they have space.
• The United States has reported 14 deaths per million of population. Italy and Spain have reported over 200 deaths per million. France, England, and Germany have reported an average of 35 deaths per million. Critics claim Trump’s response is costing American lives. If relatively fewer Americans have died than every other major European country, what is the basis for the critics’ charge?
It's early in the curve here, and we don't have adequate testing to know where we are yet.
• Governor Cuomo said New York would start enrolling patients in clinical trials to test hydroxychloroquine last week, but the trials are described as “not yet recruiting” on the ClinicalTrials.gov site? Why are these trials delayed? (Note: Brian adds: “There is typically a long lag time from the time you post a trial on ClinicalTrials.gov to the time it is activated and ready to enroll patients…my concern is about whether NY and the feds can get out of the way so the regulatory and logistical burdens that hamper rapid activation and then enrollment are eliminated.”)
They HAVE cut down on red tape. One man's red tape is another's safe process. Using patients as unregulated test subjects yields less data and poorer results including deaths.
• On January 21 the first case of Wuhan virus was confirmed. Ten days later, after Trump promulgated his order limiting travel from China, critics condemned the step as unnecessary and xenophobic. Are these critics still of the same opinion? (Note: Thank “The Senator who saw the coronavirus coming.”)
Probably, because his first response is always to find blame elsewhere. He underplayed the problem here until he wised up, later than optimum. Give him credit for limiting travel from China though, no matter what his motive was.
• The model Minnesota government officials used to justify our current shutdown policies projected that 1.5 percent, or 74,000, of all Minnesotans could die from the Wuhan virus. If these modelers used these same assumptions to estimate deaths in the United States, their model would project 5,000,000 Americans deaths. This is roughly 3 times more deaths per capita than died from the Spanish flu in 1918-19. Do Minnesota government officials think the Wuhan virus is possibly 3x more deadly than the Spanish flu? What model are they using?[/QUOTE]
Predicting deaths is tough game and models can be wrong. They're models. Quibbling over one model vs. another makes it seem like you want to undermine the credibility of our national response. Not a good idea right now.

 

[14HAWKS88]

Same with the flu. There are people that get it and never get tested for it. They get better, they don’t die and their data is absent from the pool. So the 0.1% mortality rate is also skewed. If you have good evidence one is skewed more than the other I’d like to see it but I don’t think you do. And there were a lot of people who died of CV who weren’t labeled as such here and abroad.

Italy is currently at 10% of those infected with CV have died. Not the same as the flu which is 0.1%. In other words, 1 in 1000 or 1 in 10. So how about a game. You can catch CV or last season’s Flu. Which one do you go with? This is not an IQ test...oh yes it is.

And vaccines take months and months of human testing to be deemed safe. Five years after Zika and we still don’t have a vaccine. And look at the vaccines for Denghe and AIDS that had nasty side effects before they got pulled.

The day the world says, “surprise, CV is just another flu” is never.

The doctor in the video I posted on the first page explains why the mortality rate estimates for covid are skewed. Elsewhere in this thread I posted a link to a CDC webpage where you can learn that they do, in fact, include data from random tests and estimates of how many people had the flu but never needed medical care when estimating the mortality rate of the seasonal flu.

What most of you are experiencing is mass hysteria fueled by 24 hour a day cable news and social media panic porn and the feedback loop created when your hysteria is mirrored by the people around you.