The answer is very obvious. The Democrat post-mortems have actually been extremely well considered, the best I've seen after any losing party in many, many years. The blueprint is obvious.
1. Stop demanding orthodoxy on incredibly unpopular positions.
The Democrats have narrowed the tent incredibly, including demanding fealty to some extremely unpopular ideas. There is no way around the fact that these issues are big time losers with anyone but graduate degree holding white liberal women:
- Gender ideology institutionalizing something other than M/F
- "gender affirming" care for minors & biological males in womens' sports
- Lax enforcement of the border, increased illegal immigration, increased migrants, health care for illegals, etc
- Reduced policing or enforcement and social justice focused approaches to crime/public chaos
- DEI extremes - that America is fundamentally white supremacist, all white people are racist, microagressions, etc
Bottom line is that most people, including poor and working class...hate all that stuff. It's extraordinarily unpopular, it's a massive shift left from literally as recent as Obama, and there is just no political gain.
And the biggest thing is that it's not like the Democrats have to become anti-trans, or border hawks. They simply have to make these issues ones that Democrats can agree to disagree on. AOC can stan illegal migrants while Eric Adams pushes for more border enforcement. The most liberal voices from safe districts can call for childhood sex changes, while Latino reps can be against boys in girls' sports. These are non-winning issues, these are issues that bring zero additional votes to the table. Making them fundamental to being a Democrat (and allowing Republicans to paint them as such) is political malpractice.
Simply look at the 2020 debates when every Democratic contender raised their hand to provide health care to illegal immigrants. That is insanity, and that is born of the crazy gatekeeping around unpopular positions.
While the Democrats have been gatekeeping, Trump has broken down almost all the policy obstacles to being a Trump voter. Pro-choice, lgbt, conspiracy theorist, democrat, socially liberal...anybody is welcome in the Trump coalition who will kiss Trump's butt. I don't personally think that's much of a way to run a party, but it's opened the party way up, to everything from macho Latinos, crypto bros, weirdo health nuts, etc.
2. Exhibit better governing in Democratic controlled places
Democrats simply have to be able to point to the places they control as exemplars of excellent governing. Instead, too many are shining lights of public disorder, housing shortages, homelessness, inability to execute basic municipal tasks, failure to build public works, etc.
Liberals can talk all they want about the paradise of California and Oregon vs the hell holes of Florida and Texas...but the general public just isn't buying it. Shit isn't being built in Democratic areas, public disorder is up, there's no housing for the middle or working class. Nobody who isn't already a committed progressive looks at any place in California and says "Sign me up for some of that." It's great if that is what liberal Californians want, but nobody can win nationally promising to do for their state what they've done for San Francisco. The bottom line is the suburbs of Dallas, Jacksonville, Atlanta, etc look way, way more appealing the the vast majority of people than San Francisco or Portland. And those red-leaning places are building and building, attracting business, and continuing to add electoral votes.
Democrats can make the places they control excellent and affordable places to live again, and run on that.