There is a lot of stuff going on right now globally. How likely do you think a depression/recession is under Trump?
What are the chances of a recession/depression under trump?
- Thread starter Hawk_82
- Start date
If he's able to levy his tariffs and deport a massive amount of the inexpensive labor, it will happen. I said 50% because I hope saner heads prevail to stop him.
hawkeyetraveler
HB Heisman
Yep. If left to his own devices I think it would approach 100%…his tariff promises on the campaign trail are that bad. But it is unlikely to go as far as he wanted.
Ryan needs to get in here voting with his 10 alt handles to give his boy some support.
TrumpDefenseSyndrome
TrumpDefenseSyndrome
Went with 75%.
But as Elon said, there will be some pain and that should be a sacrifice real Americans are willing to make! Billionaires have been taken advantage of in this country for too long!
But as Elon said, there will be some pain and that should be a sacrifice real Americans are willing to make! Billionaires have been taken advantage of in this country for too long!
Four years with Trump as President will induce a huge mental
depression in our nation. America citizens will finally realize
they were duped by the toxic egotist Trump. People will lose
their mind and become depressed. We will see America become
passive and have no optimism or hope for the future.
depression in our nation. America citizens will finally realize
they were duped by the toxic egotist Trump. People will lose
their mind and become depressed. We will see America become
passive and have no optimism or hope for the future.
No, they won't. The ones who know already knew and the ones who don't, will never admit they were wrong. They will vote for him again if he defies the Constitution and runs for a third term. Seventy million of them. No choice.
There's a decent chance Trump will lead us into a recession. And when it happens his supporters won't care. They're in the cult until the end. He could cost them their jobs and their life savings and they'll still drive around truck parades for him.
50 of top economic experts in the country have said Trump's policies are going to destroy the economy.
But Trump knows more about economics than all of them. How many people can have six bankruptcies and still be able to redefine economic norms. You know, like the exporting country pays the tariffs.
Very hard to say because we don’t know what policies will be implemented.
Cutting 1/3 of the federal budget would be bad the economy in the short term.
Inflation is still higher than the feds long term target, will they raise rates? The bond market seems to think so.
GDP growth and the labor market seem to be in a good place but will that continue if the cost of capital keeps increasing?
Cutting 1/3 of the federal budget would be bad the economy in the short term.
Inflation is still higher than the feds long term target, will they raise rates? The bond market seems to think so.
GDP growth and the labor market seem to be in a good place but will that continue if the cost of capital keeps increasing?
I would like to see rates higher for longer to prevent excessive inflation. I know Trump wants rates lower.
What would you like to see with rates and what do you think will happen?
I laugh at the thought MAGAs think he is some economic genius. He lost money on one of the industries that is REALLY hard to lose money in: Casinos
I don't think you know as much about magas as you think you do. I think most Republicans understand there is a very realistic possibility of a recession in the next 18 months.
But they still want their tax cuts..... Whatever. They have tried to ruin the country by greed before. I liked fiscally responsible GOPers back in the day. But trickle down economics has proven to moronic.
I agree that trickle down economics don't work and I am solidly republican.
I have no idea what will happen with the economy under trump. My prediction is we will see a recession in 2025 then a boom by 2027. but this is purely a guess.
I did think we would see a recession under biden too, but I think he delayed recession through high government spending and the green deal.
For anyone who has been paying attention this was confirmed yesterday:
2 Thessalonians 2:8
Then the man of lawlessness will be revealed, but the Lord Jesus will slay him with the breath of his mouth and destroy him by the splendor of his coming.
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I have been a Republican my whole life as well. I am too young to remember Reagan, but in hindsight I have come to believe Bill Clinton was the last actual conservative we had as president. The 1990s were good because of him and the Republican Congress. Since 2000, we have been slowly declining as an empire due to insane spending and trillion-dollar wars.
As much as I loved W when he was president, I came to realize he started the shit show that has only been amplified by the Obama, Trump, and Biden years.
Trump II will be the final nail in our coffin.
What do you mean 'runs for a third term'?
Didn't democracy already die? Or was that just a scare tactic that failed, so we don't talk about it anymore?
Can you conclusively say democracy hasn’t? That remains TBD.
Our country has chosen to flirt with disaster yet again. In other words, we have decided to FA and are about to FO.
Buckle up.
I'm willing to wager that it hasn't.
Winner picks the loser's avatar for 1 year from the result.
Care to bet there won't be elections in 2026?
This offer is open to anyone in the thread.
I already have one going with Belem on whether Trump is still in the White House Jan 21, 2029.
I don’t think the fed should have cut last month and I hope they keep rates where they are for as long as possible. The fed is in a rough spot because trump wants lower rates but he also says inflation is out of control. If you look just at inflation, rates are too low.
Of course there will be midterm elections.
The question is to will Trump honor the 22nd amendment and willingly leave office. If he’s still alive at that time, I have serious doubts he will. Given how spineless and brainwashed the majority of Republicans are, it wouldn’t surprise me if they acquiesced to Trump’s ambitions and fought the 22nd amendment.
So democracy won't be dead by 2026.
Whew!
Like I said, I already have that bet going with Belem.
I'm willing to bet the Republicans nominate someone else in 2028. You game for that?
Agree with all of this. The fed should not have cut rates in December, imo. The bond market agrees with me and likely you. Not that I think a 25 bps cut is detrimental, it just wasn’t necessary right now. Inflation is not in check yet. Tread lightly.
Also, your comment about cutting the federal budget probably doesn’t get discussed enough. While I definitely believe cutting spending and balancing the budget is necessary, the federal govt spending accounts for 20-25% of our gdp. Again, necessary, but tread lightly.
As far as op goes. If trump installs 20% tariffs across the board and deports 10 million “illegals” then he will absolutely 100% put us into a recession. I, like many others, am very hopeful that there is someone with some common sense that has some influence over trump can talk some sense into him.
We both hope they do, question is whether you're willing to bet that 'democracy died' and there won't be a nomination process in 2028.
Willing to make that bet?
I think there's probably a 50% chance that Trump survives the next 4 years without a major health problem or death.
He's 78 years old and aging rapidly.
We are in for a bumpy ride so long as uncertainty reigns. Consumers are going to rein in spending and businesses aren't going to grow until the daily stream of uncertainty stops.
Depends on whether or not his lunacy is implemented or not. Going willy nilly applying tariffs on imports and deporting folks who do the jobs that Americans won’t will be a disaster. If he does those things and then cuts more taxes for the most wealthy ruling class, then it’s inevitable IMO that bad things will happen, both domestically and globally. Our budget deficits will be record breaking.
Absolutely not.
Because I am going to hope for the best while being prepared for the worst.
I will say this, though: because this is an actual discussion that isn’t completely out of the realm of possibilities, it’s a sad indictment on the state of affairs in this country.
The possibility of Trump, or any sitting president for that matter, trying to remain in office after his second term should be zero. Yet, you know as well as I do that the odds are much greater than zero. And that’s a problem for me.
Should be high. We are 10+ years overdue for a recession. Should have happened on cue early in Trump’s first term, but the tax changes juiced the economy a little longer. Recession ready to begin in 2020, then Covid came and the can got kicked down the road with unprecedented direct govt spending. Should be ready to happen now, so will be interesting to see what happens.
Not that Trump being an absolute dumbshit helps - but the next four years have a lot going for a recession. I put it at 75%.
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And I think it’s important to understand that there is a difference between “MAGA” and standard issue old school Republicans. You know the ones who MAGA types try to discredit by calling us RINO.
