What are the chances of a recession/depression under trump?

[uihawk82]

Fed chairman Powell’s term ends May 2026 so think we are good till then. Who he puts in place will define the odds. I don’t think much will come from he’s ideas, they will be for show or easily circumvented or waived with a contribution

Well if Trump has 30% tariffs on all products around the globe like he said then the huge price increases in the US will make 8% inflation look like a nice picnic in the park. And then our products for export will cost more there will be tariffs on them by other countries so we will not export as much as deman overseas will shrink.

Just both of those things will really cool down our economy and it will be recessionary if not a depression.

As someone said, I hope smarter cooler heads will convince him and his ideologue bootlickers to keep things as they are with the economy, lower inflation to 3% to 2% or just a little less which you will have during growth. Workers have been getting higher wages, even higher that inflation over the last 4 years of Biden and with a good economy they will continue to gain.

People worry about an extra dollar here and 2 dollars there but they have no problem telling themselves they need a new iPhone every year or two at $1000 a pop and other shit

 

[uihawk82]

Very hard to say because we don’t know what policies will be implemented.

Cutting 1/3 of the federal budget would be bad the economy in the short term.

Inflation is still higher than the feds long term target, will they raise rates? The bond market seems to think so.

GDP growth and the labor market seem to be in a good place but will that continue if the cost of capital keeps increasing?

Inflation is a 3% or just under and their target is 2% so that is very close to normal. A lot of businesses that raised there prices could bring them back down but they wont, they think the masses will just ease into these higher prices so they can make more money. We have seen it many times since 1970. Globally traded goods like crude oil and therefore gas prices will go up and down more naturally but probably not your blue jeans

 

[uihawk82]

I don't think you know as much about magas as you think you do. I think most Republicans understand there is a very realistic possibility of a recession in the next 18 months.

So if you think most republicans think or understand there is a very realistic chance of a recession all on its own happening is what I think you mean, then why would they vote for the Dumpster who wants to hurry it along and magnify it with tariffs and global trade wars?

Can you explain that vote except to say they are mezmerized in their cult worship of lies?

 

[uihawk82]

I agree that trickle down economics don't work and I am solidly republican.

I have no idea what will happen with the economy under trump. My prediction is we will see a recession in 2025 then a boom by 2027. but this is purely a guess.

I did think we would see a recession under biden too, but I think he delayed recession through high government spending and the green deal.

Biden didnt delay a recession as this country needed and needs an infrastructure act and new infrastructure built and the green deal is more jobs and renewable energy sources. Iowa has hundreds or more bridges that really need repair.

Trump touted infrastructure but they were too lame to do it. Biden has it going and as long as no one messes with it we will have those jobs. Yes, taxes will pay for this or it is debt underwritten but our debt has driven this countries growth for a long time.

Most experts say the US has $160 trillion worth of oil, gas, and even coal (coal for when the oil and gas vanish) and are country could wipe out that $30 trillion in debt by selling only 20% of that. In a pinch sell it to Nato countries and it will be produced here and shipped to them.

The multiplier effect says prices go up with production and growth. Get used to it.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

I think there's probably a 50% chance that Trump survives the next 4 years without a major health problem or death.

He's 78 years old and aging rapidly.

You think they wouldn't vote for a dead guy?

 

[uihawk82]

I have been a Republican my whole life as well. I am too young to remember Reagan, but in hindsight I have come to believe Bill Clinton was the last actual conservative we had as president. The 1990s were good because of him and the Republican Congress. Since 2000, we have been slowly declining as an empire due to insane spending and trillion-dollar wars.

As much as I loved W when he was president, I came to realize he started the shit show that has only been amplified by the Obama, Trump, and Biden years.

Trump II will be the final nail in our coffin.

I agree with you about the waste of $3-4 trillion in Iraq and Afghan. and a lot more waste involved with those wars. Bush and his crew decided not to take the Taliban up on their surrender and putting down of arms just 1 month after the fighting started in 2001. Powerful people in our govt wanted war and a long war.

We have generally had good growth since late 1992 if you want to look that the economy. A downturn/slowdown in 1992, a late tech bubble burst in Clintons last term, the near total global meltdown that was really bad the last 2 years of Bush 2, I dont care what you say about Obama but he sheparded a general growth and recovery from near depression in his 8 years so I dont give them much grief about the economy with the hand he was dealt. Trump had bad covid year. Biden inherited too much govt money given was, 2 Covid give aways durning trump's last year, and one more very early in Biden's first year. And the Brookings Inst and others have said the Supply Chain Mess was a big factor in the 2021 and 2022 inflation rise along with the added $4trillion in Covid relief dollars. So Biden inherited a mess.

I see a pattern, Bush the 2nd and Trump both left huge friggin messes. But some of the 2007-2008 huge downturn started with Clinton and Congress, all of Congress, relaxing too many glass steagal type regulations and letting Wall street and investors go wild. If Trump lets the regulations off again I say 100% for a shitty economy

 

[uihawk82]

Of course there will be midterm elections.

The question is to will Trump honor the 22nd amendment and willingly leave office. If he’s still alive at that time, I have serious doubts he will. Given how spineless and brainwashed the majority of Republicans are, it wouldn’t surprise me if they acquiesced to Trump’s ambitions and fought the 22nd amendment.

Well the States run their own elections so many states would not put Trump on the ballot in 2028 is what I think would happen. Those states have previously ratified the 22nd amendment meaning they follow that law.

How could Trump change that amendment in a short time?

 

[goldmom]

Of course there will be midterm elections.

The question is to will Trump honor the 22nd amendment and willingly leave office. If he’s still alive at that time, I have serious doubts he will. Given how spineless and brainwashed the majority of Republicans are, it wouldn’t surprise me if they acquiesced to Trump’s ambitions and fought the 22nd amendment.

JFC.
Take a breath.

 

[uihawk82]

We both hope they do, question is whether you're willing to bet that 'democracy died' and there won't be a nomination process in 2028.

Willing to make that bet?

Are you that itchy to make a bet. You know what Trump or Putin or someone else could push a button in early 2026 and there would be no one to run and election. We are not in control here and we have hotheads coming to power

 

[uihawk82]

I think there's probably a 50% chance that Trump survives the next 4 years without a major health problem or death.

He's 78 years old and aging rapidly.

Trump's dad lived into his 90s iirc

 

[BrianNole777]

Trump's dad lived into his 90s iirc

He had Alzheimer's disease for years though.

 

[Tenacious E]

There is a lot of stuff going on right now globally. How likely do you think a depression/recession is under Trump?

I went with unlikely. Biden had crazy headwinds with COVID, microchip shortage, supply chain issues, inflation; Ukraine war, Middle East instability, and the markets sang for 2+ years. If Trump has more adversity than Biden shit will have majorly come off the rails, which is unlikely.

 

[Tenacious E]

There will be one or there won’t be one.
So 50% is the correct answer.

Can I play cards with you?

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

JFC.
Take a breath.

I mean, I am not exactly hyperventilating here. But I stand by what I said.

 

[seminole97]

Are you that itchy to make a bet.

I’m ’itchy’ to point out NOBODY who was saying that Trump’s re-election would herald the end of American democracy will take the bet.

Which tells me that they genuinely don’t believe it.

You know what Trump or Putin or someone else could push a button in early 2026 and there would be no one to run and election. We are not in control here and we have hotheads coming to power

The neocons pushing for WW3 just lost the election. The hotheads are losing power.

 

[goldmom]

I mean, I am not exactly hyperventilating here. But I stand by what I said.

Of course you would.

 

[RagnarLothbrok]

Of course you would.

What point are you trying to make?

 

[Huey Grey]

JFC.
Take a breath.

Prez is an official felon with financial fraud and sexual assault on his record as well as a coup and his explicit statements that maybe he won't leave after two terms. Question is why you trust him?

 

[luvmyhawks]

Should be high. We are 10+ years overdue for a recession. Should have happened on cue early in Trump’s first term, but the tax changes juiced the economy a little longer. Recession ready to begin in 2020, then Covid came and the can got kicked down the road with unprecedented direct govt spending. Should be ready to happen now, so will be interesting to see what happens.

We just had a double dip recession in 2020 and 2022.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

50%

 

[goldmom]

What point are you trying to make?

You’ve made what I view is an outlandish assertion and you’ve boxed yourself in.
I’d take the L and live to fight another day.

 

[TennNole17]

69%