NOAA. Every local forecast is based on info they provide. They have the most resources, and have I believe 15 forecast models they run daily and usually "blend" them into what we see for forecasts...but even the local offices are in the same spot as broadcast meteorologists do...no matter what, a certain amount of guesswork is involved.
That being said...NOAA has the most data, therefore I go to them. It's amazing how accurate they are day in day out. They've pretty much nailed the recent rainy weather eastern Iowa has had recently most every day.
If you look at their hazardous weather outlooks, forecast narratives, and radars et al on their site, one can make a pretty accurate guess as to what a particular time of day in a location will most likely be.