I think we are likely looking at 8-5 again. Wouldn't be at all surprised if we are not the team with the most wins, but we could put things together and make a strong run too. Hard to know right now. We need some real playmakers to emerge in the skill groups and Lines to put us over the hump.
What would that be ... 7-5 during the regular season with a bowl victory? Or 8-4 during the regular season with a bowl loss?
Not that I want to chalk too much up concerning our schedule ... but I cannot help it. Consider past precedent:
- 2007: Considered a ridiculously "easy" schedule because we missed both OSU and Michigan. We absolutely sucked that season ... gutted at WR, crappy QB, and a ridiculously green OL. Our D was solid ... although we were iffy at safety and our LB play wasn't too flashy. All the same .... 6-6 through the regular season.
- 2008: Considered an "easy" schedule for the same reasons listed above. There was a lot of youth on the squad ... but most of it had some experience. The biggest transition was that the team experienced a QB-competition ... that invariably cost us a game or two. Furthermore, even had Stanzi won the job outright sooner ... his inexperience still cost us games (or would have cost us games). Hawks ended up 8-4 through the regular season.
- 2014: By any measure - quite an "easy" schedule. "On paper" our O looked like it should have been really good. The primary knock on our D was new LBs (and a new FS). As we all probably remember - Ferentz admitted that he was likely too distracted by other factors (like fund-raising etc) and embarrassingly detached from the team that season. Furthermore, not unlike the '08 season, a QB competition struck the squad and possibly divided the locker room (at least to some extent). The Hawks ended up 7-5 through the regular season.
- 2015: Again, for the 2nd year in a row - quite an "easy" schedule. On paper, it looked like the D could struggle due to newness at LB and DT. On O, there was excitement that Beathard was named the starter - but quite a number of quality WRs left after the '14 season, the group of RBs was largely a mystery, and the OL was set to feature 3 sophomore starters (including all-new OTs). Hawks ended up 12-0 ... thereby giving birth to the "New Kirk" era!
As you look at the 2018 schedule - the cross-over teams are Indiana, Maryland, and PSU. Thus, going off of perception ... the top 4 teams in the east are usually among OSU, MSU, PSU, and Michigan. Of those top teams - we only catch one of them. On top of that ... compared to the prior 2 seasons, PSU's stud OC has been hired away AND many of their top players on both sides of the ball are gone. If the Hawks can limit McSorley - that game appears very winnable. If you look to the west - the primary team that has been clearly better than us is Wisconsin. Given personnel turnover on D ... they might finally be "mortal." On the flip side, the Wisconsin running game should continue to be a beast. If the Hawks can get by Wisconsin ... then the sky is the limit!
Of the 4 "easy" schedules listed above - 3 were marred by either dealing with a new QB or a QB competition. The only season where we featured a relatively experienced QB was in '15 ... and, even then, it marked Beathard's first season as the unquestioned full-time starter. Of the 4 listed seasons, the arguable weakest D was the '14 unit. On "paper" the '08 and '14 OLs were the best. In terms of skill-players the '08 squad appeared the best (at least in terms of talent) - although the '15 squad arguably had the best overall depth.
Where does the '18 squad fit into this discussion? Even with new LBs, the '18 D should be a pretty good group. The group also benefits from having a returning starter at QB. The skill players aren't necessarily on par with the '08 or '15 squads - but they're better than the rest. The only thing I could assert about the OL is that it couldn't possibly be worse than the '07 group.
It's the off-season and it's the "job" of fans to spew idle speculation ... and I'm not different ... so what do the factors considered above suggest about the '18 squad? If adversity strikes ... I could see a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season being possible. However, the above considerations embolden me to anticipate that the Hawks could do better ... perhaps more akin to 9+ wins (perhaps a higher lower bound?).
Of course, a consideration about the schedule that few have probably made ... the quality of the lesser-touted teams are arguably creeping up. While Maryland was one of the worst teams in the B1G in '17 ... a big part of that was attributable to all the adversity that they faced at QB. Brohm was a freakin' magician at Purdue ... will they continue to ascend the ladder? How well will the Gophers row their boat? Northwestern is always quite a well-coached outfit ... typically with talent on par with our Hawks. Indiana's coach values defense ... quite a change from the past. The Hoosiers are usually capable of giving a scare to their "betters." Irrespective of how annoying we might find ISU or Nebraska ... it's hard to argue about the quality of Campbell and Frost as collegiate coaches. The only teams that seems "guaranteed" to be BAD in '18 is Illinois ... but, even then, they cannot be as bad as they were in '17, right?