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Why is it so hard?

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7thsummitcoach

Team MVP
Nov 25, 2011
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For the life of me, I can't seem to understand why it is so hard for Iowa fans to believe the Hawks can/will finish 12-0.

I understood back in Sept when I said they would (barring Injuries, or a return to previous coaching style) and people were doubting. I don't get it now.

Is it simply because they never have? There by basing this year on past results (the very thing people are complaining about with the blue bloods).

Or is it that when you actually look at the match-ups you feel that Iowa is over matched?

IU is 4-4. Which of their stellar victories scares you? Is it Southern Illinois? Florida International? Western Kentucky? Or is it that they were kind of competitive at home against OSU. You know when there was excitement at IU being undefeated and having the #1 team and defending national champions coming to their house. Is it really far fetched to say they played beyond their abilities?

Maybe it is the 55 points they gave up to Rutgers...RUTGERS! Or is it the 52 they gave up to MSU?

Maybe it is 4-4 Minnesota that scares you. At night, alternate uniforms. They have beat Colorado St by 3. Kent St by 3. An Ohio by 3. They were shut out by NW 27-0, and the dumpster fire that is known as Nebraska beat them.

Purdue...REALLY?

And then at Nebraska. Should I mention Purdue here? Lost to Wisky, and NW. Is it simply because they are Nebraska...and the would love to knock the Hawks off (as if no other team tries their best to win)...is this where it comes from?

Please help me understand why people including Hawks reporters are still saying they are going to go 3-1 or even 2-2 down the stretch.
 
There is not a single game on the schedule I will pick Iowa to lose, but I will still say that it is likely Iowa loses at least one game. It's a matter of the law of averages.

For example, if we assume Iowa is an 80% favorite in every remaining game this season, that still means we only have a 40% chance of winning out.

We are better than every team left on our schedule, but that hardly means it's a given we will win every game.
 
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I certainly believe they can finish 12-0 if no further major injuries and they play well, I'd be even more confident with a fully healthy CJ. I also realize almost every team is capable of dropping a turd on occasion, so if they lose 1 along the way it won't shock me either. Heck, pretty much everyone on this board would have wholeheartedly signed up for 10-2 back in August.

The folks on here that get me are 1) the ones who each week think we're going to lose and 2) those screaming about the selection committee disrespecting Iowa in the initial rankings and then in another thread predicting a loss to Indiana.

All of that said, I think the last 2 weeks of the season we're going to find out where Ohio State is really at when they play MSU and UM. I just know there is an awful lot of talent on that roster and it feels like they've underperformed for the most part to date. Urban won't be messing around much in November, it's go time.
 
Combination of history, hobbled quarterback, the normalcy of surprise results in the game, and knowing our opponents well enough that we're no locks to beat them all.

It was only six years ago we had a team go on a run, finding ways to win, and we were derailed on one play by an injury to the wrong guy. We haven't finished a season undefeated since 1922. Most people are bracing themselves for a letdown. Don't let yourself get too high so the low won't hurt so much (I don't believe that to be true, but a lot of people subscribe to it).

Personally, I agree. Barring unforeseen circumstance, this team is good, shuts teams down, and knows how to win. We should finish 12-0 unless CJ gets hurt worse.
 
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icantfindausernamethatisntused said:
There is not a single game on the schedule I will pick Iowa to lose, but I will still say that it is likely Iowa loses at least one game. It's a matter of the law of averages.

For example, if we assume Iowa is an 80% favorite in every remaining game this season, that still means we only have a 40% chance of winning out.

We are better than every team left on our schedule, but that hardly means it's a given we will win every game.
Click to expand...

This; it's simple statistics. If we have a 90% chance of winning each game going into the season, the odds of going 12-0 are just 28%. And I don't think many people felt we had a 90% chance of beating Pitt, Wisconsin, Northwestern, or even Iowa State. Even at 8-0, if we think we have a 90% chance of winning each remaining game, there is a 1/3 chance we don't win all four.
 
artradley said:
This; it's simple statistics. If we have a 90% chance of winning each game going into the season, the odds of going 12-0 are just 28%. And I don't think many people felt we had a 90% chance of beating Pitt, Wisconsin, Northwestern, or even Iowa State. Even at 8-0, if we think we have a 90% chance of winning each remaining game, there is a 1/3 chance we don't win all four.
Click to expand...

Not to worry, I heard CJ thinks math sucks! :)
 
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Because it's College Football. Anything can happen any given week. Yes, we definitely can win out but as other's pointed out, statistics.
 
Well, Iowa hasn't finished undefeated since the early 20's, so we have roughly 95 years of history to go by.

I think Iowa is going 12-0, but am not naive enough to think it will happen. You just never know nowadays about college football. After Miami/Duke and MSU/Michigan and GT/FSU...I'm just not going to believe with all my heart it'll actually happen at all until it does.

Indiana is key...come out and hammer them and I think we get rewarded the rest of the games.
 
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According to statistics...Miami, Georgia Tech, MSU and BYU should all have 1 more loss right now. And the Mets should be celebrating their World Championship.
 
23260590.jpg
 
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7thsummitcoach said:
For the life of me, I can't seem to understand why it is so hard for Iowa fans to believe the Hawks can/will finish 12-0.

I understood back in Sept when I said they would (barring Injuries, or a return to previous coaching style) and people were doubting. I don't get it now.

Is it simply because they never have? There by basing this year on past results (the very thing people are complaining about with the blue bloods).

Or is it that when you actually look at the match-ups you feel that Iowa is over matched?

IU is 4-4. Which of their stellar victories scares you? Is it Southern Illinois? Florida International? Western Kentucky? Or is it that they were kind of competitive at home against OSU. You know when there was excitement at IU being undefeated and having the #1 team and defending national champions coming to their house. Is it really far fetched to say they played beyond their abilities?

Maybe it is the 55 points they gave up to Rutgers...RUTGERS! Or is it the 52 they gave up to MSU?

Maybe it is 4-4 Minnesota that scares you. At night, alternate uniforms. They have beat Colorado St by 3. Kent St by 3. An Ohio by 3. They were shut out by NW 27-0, and the dumpster fire that is known as Nebraska beat them.

Purdue...REALLY?

And then at Nebraska. Should I mention Purdue here? Lost to Wisky, and NW. Is it simply because they are Nebraska...and the would love to knock the Hawks off (as if no other team tries their best to win)...is this where it comes from?

Please help me understand why people including Hawks reporters are still saying they are going to go 3-1 or even 2-2 down the stretch.
Click to expand...

How long have you been following Iowa FB?

There is always a let down.....I hope to hell it isn't till at least the Big10 Championship - I'd be happy with that....but losing to Indy, Minny, or Nebby are all real possibilities.

I hope this is the year of no let down, but history tells me to prepare myself :)
 
stillh8unlv said:
How long have you been following Iowa FB? :)
Click to expand...

I started following the Hawks in 78'.

My challenge I guess is I do t subscribe to the theory of not getting my hopes up in case they might not reach them.

It is the age old question. What if it doesn't work? What if it does?

I just like when working with my clients I don't plan for failure and I don't like working with people who do.
 
7thsummitcoach said:
For the life of me, I can't seem to understand why it is so hard for Iowa fans to believe the Hawks can/will finish 12-0.

I understood back in Sept when I said they would (barring Injuries, or a return to previous coaching style) and people were doubting. I don't get it now.

Is it simply because they never have? There by basing this year on past results (the very thing people are complaining about with the blue bloods).

Or is it that when you actually look at the match-ups you feel that Iowa is over matched?

IU is 4-4. Which of their stellar victories scares you? Is it Southern Illinois? Florida International? Western Kentucky? Or is it that they were kind of competitive at home against OSU. You know when there was excitement at IU being undefeated and having the #1 team and defending national champions coming to their house. Is it really far fetched to say they played beyond their abilities?

Maybe it is the 55 points they gave up to Rutgers...RUTGERS! Or is it the 52 they gave up to MSU?

Maybe it is 4-4 Minnesota that scares you. At night, alternate uniforms. They have beat Colorado St by 3. Kent St by 3. An Ohio by 3. They were shut out by NW 27-0, and the dumpster fire that is known as Nebraska beat them.

Purdue...REALLY?

And then at Nebraska. Should I mention Purdue here? Lost to Wisky, and NW. Is it simply because they are Nebraska...and the would love to knock the Hawks off (as if no other team tries their best to win)...is this where it comes from?

Please help me understand why people including Hawks reporters are still saying they are going to go 3-1 or even 2-2 down the stretch.
Click to expand...
Maybe it's because Iowa hasn't finished unbeaten in....forever? Might be a reason to be slightly pessimistic. That and the fact that over the course of 40 years of being a Hawk fan I've received a couple dozen nut punches from my beloved Hawks.......
 
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It's simply not enough to be better than other teams. Teams beat teams they are not supposed to beat all the time. These are young men, not robots that behave exactly the same all the time.

I don't know a lot about Indiana. But, I do know that they have gone toe-to-toe with very good teams for a good portion of the game. Maybe they will do it for 48 min. on Saturday.

And, with all due respect, this team does not have a great player on it. We need the whole team to contribute.

Why is it hard to believe? Because it is hard to do.
 
Because the head coach himself has said numerous times this season: "Said it weeks ago. My suspicion was we could probably beat anybody on our schedule, lose to anybody."

The fact is that there is parity in college football, more than ever. The media doesn't get that sometimes. All it takes is one sack to Beathard and we will be in serious trouble.
 
stillh8unlv said:
How long have you been following Iowa FB?

There is always a let down.....I hope to hell it isn't till at least the Big10 Championship - I'd be happy with that....but losing to Indy, Minny, or Nebby are all real possibilities.

I hope this is the year of no let down, but history tells me to prepare myself :)
Click to expand...
I get we have all been let down before and we all have probably been pleasantly surprised at times too. However, I do not base this season on years past because that is just simply flawed logic. I do however wholeheartedly believe that Iowa could win every game this year and could also lose most of the games as well. I base this on the parity of college football not what last years team did or 2007 team did......now if the same exact players were on this team as last then I would agree that is a logical train of thought, but that is not the reality. SPeaking of this logic, somebody should tell the AP polls this logic too
 
stillh8unlv said:
Believe me, my hopes are sky high.. but my beliefs also have no bearing on the game so your point on the power of positive attitude is moot.
Click to expand...

You are right, your hopes and beliefs have no bearing on the game. As neither do mine. But they do have a bearing on how I live my life. And so the positive attitude is anything but moot. :)
 
7thsummitcoach said:
According to statistics...Miami, Georgia Tech, MSU and BYU should all have 1 more loss right now. And the Mets should be celebrating their World Championship.
Click to expand...

How is that relevant to the discussion above about statistics? Do you disagree that a team with an 80% chance to win in each of 4 games has only a 40.96% chance of winning all of those games?

Statistics don't tell you what is going to happen. But they can help you predict what is likely to happen. You pointing out a few outliers does nothing to contradict that. And, by the way, after beating the Cubs the Mets' chances of winning the World Series was approximately 50%.
 
My point in mentioning statistics is that things happen all the time that are statistically improbable.

Taking the "logic" out of it. Which actually I find illogical. I look at the 4 remaining scheduled games and I don't see a loss. Regardless of what statistics say.
 
I can.
I lived through the monsoon in Columbus in 1985.
The Bobby Olive game in 1990.
The free fall of 2006 and 2010 and
the Stanzi ankle in 2009.
 
Iowa SHOULD win the remainder of the games on there regular season slate. However, if Iowa won all the games it was supposed to win, they would NEVER lose to Iowa State. This, is why they play the game. If it were a perfect world, and CJ was healthy, I would say, NOT A CHANCE Iowa loses any of the final four. But he is not, and it remains to be seen if he continues to get healthier, or has a regression. Of course in a perfect world we would still have Ott, Canzeri, ect. playing. Wadley and Mitchell have been more then a pleasant surprise, and Daniels looked quicker last week, so it would appear we are good there.
 
Hawk_4shur said:
It's simply not enough to be better than other teams. Teams beat teams they are not supposed to beat all the time. These are young men, not robots that behave exactly the same all the time.

I don't know a lot about Indiana. But, I do know that they have gone toe-to-toe with very good teams for a good portion of the game. Maybe they will do it for 48 min. on Saturday.

And, with all due respect, this team does not have a great player on it. We need the whole team to contribute.

Why is it hard to believe? Because it is hard to do.
Click to expand...

I absolutely agree it wouldn't shock me if the Hawks were to lose a game, but at a minimum Desmond King disagrees with your "no great player" statement. Forget odds, math, etc. Do you think Iowa is better than the next 4 teams on the schedule?
 
Iowa SHOULD win , and I EXPECT us to win our next 4 games. If we lose, then we lose. Oh well. But why people are afraid of losing or expecting to lose when we haven't all season and have weak teams left to play, I just don't understand.
We are a top 10 team for a reason, and unlike some fans, and the media (though I think even the media expects us to win out, they just don't want us to put a wrench in their playoff $ystem"), I think we deserve it and should have some faith in our team.

Like someone mentioned above, it seems some people are being cautious with their expectations so that they won't be disappointed so much if we lose. What is this? kindergarten?

I'll take my chances and believe in this team. If we do lose, I am pretty sure I can handle it. Until then. GO HAWKS!
 
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7thsummitcoach said:
For the life of me, I can't seem to understand why it is so hard for Iowa fans to believe the Hawks can/will finish 12-0.

I understood back in Sept when I said they would (barring Injuries, or a return to previous coaching style) and people were doubting. I don't get it now.

Is it simply because they never have? There by basing this year on past results (the very thing people are complaining about with the blue bloods).

Or is it that when you actually look at the match-ups you feel that Iowa is over matched?

IU is 4-4. Which of their stellar victories scares you? Is it Southern Illinois? Florida International? Western Kentucky? Or is it that they were kind of competitive at home against OSU. You know when there was excitement at IU being undefeated and having the #1 team and defending national champions coming to their house. Is it really far fetched to say they played beyond their abilities?

Maybe it is the 55 points they gave up to Rutgers...RUTGERS! Or is it the 52 they gave up to MSU?

Maybe it is 4-4 Minnesota that scares you. At night, alternate uniforms. They have beat Colorado St by 3. Kent St by 3. An Ohio by 3. They were shut out by NW 27-0, and the dumpster fire that is known as Nebraska beat them.

Purdue...REALLY?

And then at Nebraska. Should I mention Purdue here? Lost to Wisky, and NW. Is it simply because they are Nebraska...and the would love to knock the Hawks off (as if no other team tries their best to win)...is this where it comes from?

Please help me understand why people including Hawks reporters are still saying they are going to go 3-1 or even 2-2 down the stretch.
Click to expand...
PLLLLLEASE............. don't waste our time with LOGIC!!!!!
 
JRich52806 said:
Iowa SHOULD win , and I EXPECT us to win our next 4 games. If we lose, then we lose. Oh well. But why people are afraid of losing or expecting to lose when we haven't all season and have weak teams left to play, I just don't understand.
We are a top 10 team for a reason, and unlike some fans, and the media (though I think even the media expects us to win out, they just don't want us to put a wrench in their playoff $ystem"), I think we deserve it and should have some faith in our team.

Like someone mentioned above, it seems some people are being cautious with their expectations so that they won't be disappointed so much if we lose. What is this? kindergarten?

I'll take my chances and believe in this team. If we do lose, I am pretty sure I can handle it. Until then. GO HAWKS!
Click to expand...

I think it's this as well. I guess I don't know how that works, if they lose to one of the next 4 teams I'm not going to feel any better about it because I posted 1000 times on a message board that "I just knew they would lose 1"...
 
Somewhere along the way, fans hopes and dreams became "expectations". What's that all about?
 
Hawk_4shur said:
Somewhere along the way, fans hopes and dreams became "expectations". What's that all about?
Click to expand...
I think it's a sort of "entitlement" thing. If fans spend the cash for season tickets, or single tickets. If fans host a game day party, food and booze.
If fans drive a distance to see the game, gas money. Fans feel they invested time and money to see their beloved team, they then "expect" a return from their investment. Just a thought.
 
Hawk_4shur said:
Somewhere along the way, fans hopes and dreams became "expectations". What's that all about?
Click to expand...
Yeah no kidding, especially after this summer when most people's hope/dream was for Iowa to tank this year so that we get rid of KF......now most are expecting us to win out.....boy oh boy fan bases are schizo
 
mvhomerj said:
I think it's a sort of "entitlement" thing. If fans spend the cash for season tickets, or single tickets. If fans host a game day party, food and booze.
If fans drive a distance to see the game, gas money. Fans feel they invested time and money to see their beloved team, they then "expect" a return from their investment. Just a thought.
Click to expand...

True, but what rate of return do they expect (in the form of entertainment, because that's what it is)? I'd say most who bought season tickets this year have already gotten more ROI than they honestly expected coming into the year, but it's human nature to continue to want/expect more I guess.
 
milehighhawkeye24 said:
Yeah no kidding, especially after this summer when most people's hope/dream was for Iowa to tank this year so that we get rid of KF......now most are expecting us to win out.....boy oh boy fan bases are schizo
Click to expand...
Iowa has a worthless coaching staff winning with D2-D3 players its amazing.lol
 
FranklinHawk said:
True, but what rate of return do they expect (in the form of entertainment, because that's what it is)? I'd say most who bought season tickets this year have already gotten more ROI than they honestly expected coming into the year, but it's human nature to continue to want/expect more I guess.
Click to expand...
Yeah humans are really dumb, especially in large masses
 
The Beathard injury is what makes every game nerve wrecking still for me. If we had "early season" Beathard who could consistently scramble out of pressure and a decent speed and somewhat accurately pass downfield, I think we'd run the table with ease and have a 50/50 shot at knocking off OSU or MSU in the CCG. That team could have beaten anyone in the country. With CJB sitting in the pocket, relatively immobile, not showing accuracy on his passes likely due in part to the injury, and our offense becoming almost completely reliant on the run game, I still think we should win out, but it adds more pressure on the defense. Thankfully I think our defense is pretty good.
 
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LOL. Cracks me up with the entitlement talk.

"You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think that it means" - Inigo Montoya

Simply believing something will happen does not mean you are entitled to said thing happening.

And I believe that the Hawks will go 12-0. There is NOTHING to show that they won't. You could point to history if you would like. And history will also show that there has never been this many teams unbeaten this late in the season.

Have I been wrong before. Yup. Will I be crushed if they don't win out? Nope. Do I expect that they will? Yup.

Can I control it? Nope. Am I entitled to it? Nope. Will I watch every game? Yup. Will I go to the CCG? Yup. Will I be at the Semi-finals? Yup. The Championship? Yup.

And if any or none of that happens, will I be at whatever bowl the Hawks do go to? Yup.

Will I enjoy the ride? Yup.

Have fun, and enjoy it! You never know when it will happen again.
 
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