Jan. 14, 2024 5:00 am
It will be a cold day in Iowa before Republican caucusgoers put a corrupt authoritarian who tried to overturn a lawful election back on a path to the White House.
On caucus day tomorrow, high temperatures will be below zero over much of Iowa.
Uh oh. Cold enough for you?
Yes, former President Donald Trump is a heavy favorite to win Iowa. His polling lead seems as insurmountable as the contentions of his backers that the FBI was behind the Capitol riot, the 2020 election was stolen, and he was a great president.
The only real question is how big will Trump’s win be? Will Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis run a respectable second place, giving him enough momentum to soldier on? Will former South Carolina governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley do well enough to gain speed going into the New Hampshire primary, where she trails Old 91 Felony Counts by just 11 points according to polling averages?
Will the cold freeze turnout? Will bored Democrats crash the Republicans’ party? I love surprises.
Or will Trump win Iowa handily, win New Hampshire and go on to become the GOP standard-bearer between court dates?
If TV ads are a guide, the whole thing has come down to Tricky Nikki, dumpster fire Ron and the dictator of national chaos. Quite the murderers’ row. Haley terrifies me the least. Not much of an endorsement.
The DeSantis campaign’s slide into the ditch may become legendary. He was supposed to be the LGBTQ loathing, woke mind virus-fighting, Sunshine State authoritarian who would become heir to the Trump legacy, but without the former president’s cargo ship filled with baggage.
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He has the support of some of Iowa’s top Republican leaders. Gov. Kim Reynolds endorsed DeSantis, as did evangelical “kingmaker” Bob Vander Plaats. State Senate President Amy Sinclair, House Majority Leader Matt Windschitl, Senate Majority Whip Waylon Brown, House Majority Whip Henry Stone and Speaker Pro-Tem John Wills all endorsed De Santis. As did a lengthy list of other Republican state senators and representatives.
So the kingmakers came for the king, and appear to have missed. An Iowa Poll released in December found 54% of Republicans said Reynolds’ endorsement didn’t matter. And Vander Plaats’ endorsement didn’t matter to 73% of Republicans surveyed.
“He’s a wounded bird falling from the sky,” Trump said of DeSantis, waxing almost poetic. “I wonder what position Kim was promised in order to back someone who is so far down in the polls?”
This isn’t much of a surprise.
For one thing, endorsements, historically, haven’t carried much weight in the caucuses. Voters who get to see the candidates repeatedly don’t need pooh-bahs to tell them how to vote. In 2004, Democrat Howard Dean had endorsements from Al Gore and Tom Harkin in his pocket. He still finished third.
It’s enough to make you scream.
Second, and more importantly, Reynolds and other top Iowa Republicans have worked overtime for the better part of six years making Iowa the Trumpiest state in Trump Country. The governor was honored to receive Trump’s endorsement for re-election in 2022. She marched in lockstep with Trump through all the lies, impeachments and recklessness.
On the day after the Capitol riot, Reynolds said “You know what we need to do is stop pointing fingers, and we need to move forward.”
Before Reynolds endorsed DeSantis in November, Trump criticized the governor for her neutrality in the caucus campaign.
“I opened up the Governor position for Kim Reynolds, & when she fell behind, I ENDORSED her, did big Rallies, & she won,” Trump truthed on Truth Social in July. “Now, she wants to remain ‘NEUTRAL.’ I don’t invite her to events!”
“To be quite honest, he is one of the most effective leaders I have ever seen,” Reynolds said as she endorsed DeSantis. “We need someone who will fight for you and win for you, someone who won’t get distracted but will stay disciplined, who puts his country first and not himself. That leader is Ron DeSantis.”
Someone who didn’t turn out to be weirdly awkward and unlikeable would have been nice, too.
Trump’s campaign fired back with Trumpian flare,
“Kim Reynolds apparently has begun her retirement tour early as she clearly does not have any ambition for higher office,” a Trump campaign statement read. “Earlier this year, she promised her constituents that she would remain neutral in the race, yet she has completely gone back on that promise. Regardless, her endorsement will not make any difference in this race.”
This will be a fascinating story moving forward. If Trump wins the nomination and, God forbid, the presidency, how will he regard Iowa and its governor? Surely, Trump will bury the hatchet, let bygones be bygones and turn the other cheek. OK, probably not.
If he wins big Monday, be sure to stay up and tune into his victory speech. It ought to be something.
Reynolds and other Republicans were right to urge GOP voters to move on from Trump. But anyone who watches movies knows that, eventually, monsters created will turn on their creators. As Doc Frankenstein, technical support for the HAL 900 and all the people who get eaten in Jurassic Park learned the hard way.
Iowa Republicans helped create the Abominable Trump. Now, he thrives in the cold.
(319) 398-8262; todd.dorman@thegazette.com
Opinion: Will the Abominable Trump dominate Iowa’s frozen caucuses?
A tractor decorated to show support for Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump is displayed outside the the Machine …
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