Most honest fans familiar with college football would not say that.
Based on performance so far (and historically), playing Iowa at home is not as difficult as playing at Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma and hosting TCU, so that would put the Iowa game at #5 at best. And that's a stretch. Historically, isu stands 22 - 41 versus Iowa; in Ames, the record is 8 wins for the home team against 18 losses. Conversely, isu still holds the edge on Kansas State (49 -45 - 4 overall) and there is only a two or three game deficit for the clones when playing in Manhattan. K-State has lost a home game recently to an FCS program. Hardly insurmountable opponent.
Before the season, I thought the Iowa game would be among the four most winnable games on the schedule, along with UNI, Kansas and Toledo.You were mistaken - not the first time that has happened.
I am hoping Iowa is better than expected, but unfortunately, Toledo definitely is better than expected. Toledo has to be euphoric with the win Saturday over Arkansas. It is very possible that they will somewhat be still riding that high and not take preparations for isu as seriously as they should. I think that isu has a very good chance of coming away with the victory this week.
Right now, I would say Kansas and UNI are weaker opponents than Iowa, while KSU, BU, OU and TCU are stronger. So that puts Iowa between #5 and #10 on the strength meter, along with Texas, Okie State, Toledo and West Virginia. Still way too early in the season to be assessing any team's overall strength. TCU sure did not look like the second best team in the nation when facing Minnesota in week one. K-state faces one of the easiest non-conference slates this year. Let's wait another month or so for things to sort out before anointing anyone better or worse.
Conversely, ISU looks like the 5th toughest game on Iowa's schedule, at the worst. The only more challenging games -- at this point on paper, of course, like my earlier comments -- would be Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. Since we are being 'honest' here, you are showing your extreme bias toward isu in this portion of your analysis. Right now, I am not certain that isu would beat any team left on Iowa's schedule. Furthermore, it can be argued that Illinois State played as well as did isu against Iowa in Kinnick Stadium. It is still a steep hill for Paul Rhoads and isu to climb and it has to happen sooner rather than later. An upset by Toledo on Saturday and/or a loss against Kansas on October 3rd and isu is very likely done winning any football games this season. Better to look no further than one game at a time.
In short, it's reasonable to think at this time that Saturday's game, for both teams, falls somewhere near the middle of what they'll be facing all season.