A mass removal of undocumented workers could lead to a tighter labor market in Iowa, higher wage rates and higher production costs, potentially leading to higher prices for goods and services, according to an Iowa State University economist.
Iowa could lose $151.6 million in taxes and tens of thousands of Iowa children could be separated from a parent if President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his promise of mass deportation.
Or the plan could be too unwieldy, logistically burdensome and costly to execute in full. Either way, undocumented immigrants in Iowa and their advocates say they are preparing for the worst.
Trump has vowed to conduct "
the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.“ He has tapped immigration hard-liners to serve in his cabinet, including Tom Homan to serve as “border czar” and Republican South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to serve as his Homeland Security secretary.
"It's not going to be a massive sweep of neighborhoods,"
Homan said in an interview with Fox News. "It's not going to be massive raids. It's going to be a targeted enforcement operation."
Homan, though, warned that does not mean deportations of other undocumented migrants living in the country “is off the table.”
“If you're in a country illegally, you've got a problem,” he told Fox News.
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An estimated more than 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the United States, according to Pew Research. There are roughly 52,300 undocumented immigrants living in Iowa, or about 1.6 percent of the state’s population, according to es
timates from the American Immigration Council, a pro-immigration advocacy group.
Vice-president-elect JD Vance has suggested 1 million people could be deported each year. Trump
deported about 1.5 million people during his first term. Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration was on pace to match those numbers, in addition to millions turned away at the U.S.-Mexico border during the COVID-19 pandemic.
More than 3 million people were deported during Democratic former President Barack Obama’s eight years in office, more than any other U.S. president.
The Gazette spoke with an economist, Iowa business leader, immigration attorney and legal expert as well as with leaders and advocates in Iowa’s immigrant community to get a sense of the potential impact of Trump’s plans on Iowa families, communities and businesses.
What’s the reaction from Iowa immigrants to Trump’s plans?
Tens of thousands of undocumented migrants are working across Iowa, contributing hundreds of millions of dollars to the Iowa economy.
A 2022 report by the American Immigration Council about immigrants living in Iowa estimates that undocumented residents made up about 2.4 percent of the state’s workforce and paid $354 million in taxes, with $151.6 million going to local and state governments. Those immigrants spent a total of $1.3 billion, the report found.
An estimated 26.2 percent of the state’s immigrant population are undocumented residents.
Rogelio Lagunas, a member of the Cedar Rapids Latino community, said many Iowa immigrants lack criminal records and know their rights and the process involved if detained, which reduces the fear of mass deportation.
“We know if people is not a criminal, if they got detained, they got to go to through the immigration process. They got to go to immigration court,” Lagunas said. “So we're not afraid. The community is not afraid about mass deportation,” he said of comments made by Trump’s team.
Advocates and legal experts, however, said there’s no guarantee that undocumented migrants without criminal convictions would not be ensnared in deportation efforts.
While Homan has said undocumented migrants deemed to be national security or public safety threats will be a priority, he has also suggested workplace raids that took place under former President W. Bush’s second term — like the 2008 raid that occurred at a kosher meatpacking plant in Postville — could return.
Lagunas stressed that while the community is not overly worried about mass deportations, they are concerned about the emboldening of racist behavior and increased bullying and discrimination against people of color.
Trump escalated his anti-immigration rhetoric on the campaign trail, saying during a rally in Iowa that undocumented immigrants were “
poisoning the blood” of America, echoing the rhetoric of white supremacists.
The president-elect also has
falsely claimed that immigrants are “coming from prisons, they’re coming from jail, they’re from mental institutions and insane asylums.”
Lagunas, who immigrated to Iowa, encouraged the community to assert their rights and speak out against racism.
Jairo Muñoz of Iowa City has been a U.S. citizen for 35 years. Originally from Colombia, he moved to the country 42 years ago to pursue a master's and PhD in engineering.
Like Lagunas, Muñoz said he worries about Trump stoking anti-immigrant sentiment and discrimination and declining support for diversity and inclusion efforts.
“It is the impact on the fiber of the community, of the people on how now it's OK to mistreat others,” Muñoz told The Gazette. “Now how diversity and inclusion is a sinful couple of words we cannot say. We cannot do it, we cannot act on it. That is becoming the new fiber of our society, and that is what really concerns me.”
He said he does not believe mass deportations are likely.
“Mass deportations will not be possible in the same way that it was not possible to build a wall and have Mexico pay for the wall,” he said. “… I don't think there will be mass deportations. I think (Trump) is doing what he always does. He says things to reach down to the emotions of people and to get other individuals in the community to follow his lead. And that is what I'm really concerned about.”
A mass removal of undocumented workers could lead to a tighter labor market in Iowa, higher wage rates and higher production costs, potentially leading to higher prices for goods and services, according to an Iowa State University economist.
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