ADVERTISEMENT

1,000,000 barrels per day for 6 months - is this a BFD?

Beats me, mostly US Gov’t restrictions and NIMBY politicians trying to get re-elected according to a geologist with a PhD (my cousin) whom I talk to daily.

Practically speaking, wells don’t just start producing and it’ll take years to see any real uptick.
Yep. The Biden Administration obviously made oil and gas slow their investments but it doesn't have anything to do with current pricing.
 
Strategic reserve has over 700 million barrels, but what they let out, they have to acquire, so in the end this always has a net zero effect on global price. The only way using the reserve that would be meaningful was if we needed to provide it to the gas producers if they were unable to get the oil.
The reserve oil has already been acquired in the past (at a cheaper price). Are you against this move?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: binsfeldcyhawk2
Strategic reserve has over 700 million barrels, but what they let out, they have to acquire, so in the end this always has a net zero effect on global price. The only way using the reserve that would be meaningful was if we needed to provide it to the gas producers if they were unable to get the oil.
Correct. There are 2 ways rhe market will regulate and drop the price. Increase supply, or like what happened during Obama's reign, demand drops because the price is too high causing gas prices to plateau and eventually drop some.
 
Correct. There are 2 ways rhe market will regulate and drop the price. Increase supply, or like what happened during Obama's reign, demand drops because the price is too high causing gas prices to plateau and eventually drop some.
The U.S. experienced the largest increase in domestic production in its history during Obama’s reign.
 
That's one way of looking at it.

On the other hand, they get the same tax breaks any other business gets. They've got one side of the political spectrum effectively wanting to cancel their existence, then when prices rise while their guy is in office, they want to blame them for not doing enough drilling and fracing to lower prices. Very weird indeed.
I don’t know of anybody trying to cancel their existence, I do know of people embracing the efficiency that other tech can give us. We are going to need oil for a long time, helping innovate isn’t an attack.
 
Watching his presser now. Biden sucks so bad. He just lies through his teeth and blames everybody else. He's the reason the oil and gas companies went into a shell and it started the day he took office.

Keep that "Putin's Price Hike" talking point going.
Lol. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas conducts a quarterly survey of oil and gas executives on the state of the oil and gas market. They just released their survey results last week. Take a look at what the oil and gas executives think as to why U.S. producers are not producing more oil.

60% of respondents said investor pressure to maintain capital discipline. Less than 10% said U.S. government regulations. I’m sure you know more than the people who are actually running these companies, though.

des2201c5.png


Not to mention, the oil and gas industry “went into a shell” in the summer of 2020. The U.S. is currently producing more oil than it did during any of Trump’s last 6 months in office. The slowdown did not coincide with Biden taking office, or even Biden winning the election, it coinciding with COVID shutting down the world economy and drying up demand.

You legitimately have no idea what you are talking about.
 
That's one way of looking at it.

On the other hand, they get the same tax breaks any other business gets. They've got one side of the political spectrum effectively wanting to cancel their existence, then when prices rise while their guy is in office, they want to blame them for not doing enough drilling and fracing to lower prices. Very weird indeed.

More weird here. Cancel their very existence? You are victimizing the oil companies? If we could successfully “cancel” them - that’d be great - but no person with any sense would suggest that’s possible.
 
Do you know what the XL is? Is the Keystone Pipeline in operation? Do you know where most of this oil was being shipped?
Pepsi’s contribution to this board was better just being a mythological figure who posted redundant shit.
 
Yep he gets his US news from 23 year old Rolling Stone tweeters.

It's amazing that people think "their" news is unbiased, but "other people's" news is fake/biased/etc. It's like the old comedy routine by Carlin about "Stuff"

 
More weird here. Cancel their very existence? You are victimizing the oil companies? If we could successfully “cancel” them - that’d be great - but no person with any sense would suggest that’s possible.
Weird.

"Number one, no more subsidies for fossil fuel industry. No more drilling on federal lands. No more drilling, including offshore. No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill, period, ends, number one." -Joe Biden (before $100+ oil and skyrocketing inflation)
 
I don’t know of anybody trying to cancel their existence
"Number one, no more subsidies for fossil fuel industry. No more drilling on federal lands. No more drilling, including offshore. No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill, period, ends, number one." -Joe Biden (before $100+ oil and skyrocketing inflation)
 
Lol. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas conducts a quarterly survey of oil and gas executives on the state of the oil and gas market. They just released their survey results last week. Take a look at what the oil and gas executives think as to why U.S. producers are not producing more oil.

60% of respondents said investor pressure to maintain capital discipline. Less than 10% said U.S. government regulations. I’m sure you know more than the people who are actually running these companies, though.

des2201c5.png


Not to mention, the oil and gas industry “went into a shell” in the summer of 2020. The U.S. is currently producing more oil than it did during any of Trump’s last 6 months in office. The slowdown did not coincide with Biden taking office, or even Biden winning the election, it coinciding with COVID shutting down the world economy and drying up demand.

You legitimately have no idea what you are talking about.
So you're a Biden apologist. All this is just a miraculous coincidence that just started to happen when he came into office even though his first acts were to shut down pipelines, increase regulations, close of public lands, and do everything else he could to make it difficult for the O&G companies. Do you think that maybe sent a signal to these companies?

That's right. Biden had nothing to do with it. His policies had no effect. Just a big coincidence.

So, in a hostile environment like that, you bet these companies are going to tighten up financially and "maintain capital discipline" because they know they have an unfavorable business climate and they need to run tight in order to weather this until more favorable conditions.

But Biden and his policies have had nothing to do with this.

You legitimately have no idea what you are talking about.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hawkcub
Lol. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas conducts a quarterly survey of oil and gas executives on the state of the oil and gas market. They just released their survey results last week. Take a look at what the oil and gas executives think as to why U.S. producers are not producing more oil.

60% of respondents said investor pressure to maintain capital discipline. Less than 10% said U.S. government regulations. I’m sure you know more than the people who are actually running these companies, though.

des2201c5.png


Not to mention, the oil and gas industry “went into a shell” in the summer of 2020. The U.S. is currently producing more oil than it did during any of Trump’s last 6 months in office. The slowdown did not coincide with Biden taking office, or even Biden winning the election, it coinciding with COVID shutting down the world economy and drying up demand.

You legitimately have no idea what you are talking about.
At the end of the day, investor pressure to maintain capital discipline is absolutely the driver behind oil and gas activity, or lack thereof. But what is missing in that answer is the factors that drive investor sentiment. The factors driving investor sentiment, are:

1) Money. Investors didn't make satisfactory return on investment the last cycle, so the business model has changed
2) Futures prices. The 48 month strip is $72. In the face of rising inflation and increasing ops costs, full project economics aren't as rosy as they may appear on the surface. Further out, you have to take into account competing energy sources.
3) Future legislation risks. For example, Biden has already shown a willingness to cancel projects that are already in progress. Yeah the Keystone pipeline wasn't going to have a significant and direct effect on commodity prices. But it did set a precedent. As companies move away from flaring gas at the well site, it becomes critical to move that gas via pipeline. With increased production, more pipeline takeaway capacity is needed. What's Biden going to do when prices return to $70/bbl and he's not staring down the barrel of inflation? Are companies going to wind up with stranded assets they can't move because the president keeps canceling pipelines? This is an example of political risk investors must weigh.
 
At the end of the day, investor pressure to maintain capital discipline is absolutely the driver behind oil and gas activity, or lack thereof. But what is missing in that answer is the factors that drive investor sentiment. The factors driving investor sentiment, are:

1) Money. Investors didn't make satisfactory return on investment the last cycle, so the business model has changed
2) Futures prices. The 48 month strip is $72. In the face of rising inflation and increasing ops costs, full project economics aren't as rosy as they may appear on the surface. Further out, you have to take into account competing energy sources.
3) Future legislation risks. For example, Biden has already shown a willingness to cancel projects that are already in progress. Yeah the Keystone pipeline wasn't going to have a significant and direct effect on commodity prices. But it did set a precedent. As companies move away from flaring gas at the well site, it becomes critical to move that gas via pipeline. With increased production, more pipeline takeaway capacity is needed. What's Biden going to do when prices return to $70/bbl and he's not staring down the barrel of inflation? Are companies going to wind up with stranded assets they can't move because the president keeps canceling pipelines? This is an example of political risk investors must weigh.
Nope. We're just supposed to ignore all of this, especially point #3.
 
So you're a Biden apologist. All this is just a miraculous coincidence that just started to happen when he came into office even though his first acts were to shut down pipelines, increase regulations, close of public lands, and do everything else he could to make it difficult for the O&G companies. Do you think that maybe sent a signal to these companies?

That's right. Biden had nothing to do with it. His policies had no effect. Just a big coincidence.

So, in a hostile environment like that, you bet these companies are going to tighten up financially and "maintain capital discipline" because they know they have an unfavorable business climate and they need to run tight in order to weather this until more favorable conditions.

But Biden and his policies have had nothing to do with this.

You legitimately have no idea what you are talking about.
It didn’t start when Biden took office though, it started during the spring of 2020. That isn’t being a Biden apologist, it is an objectively quantifiable, irrefutable fact.

The 4-week average of U.S. oil production reached its peak of 13 million barrels per day in March 2020, and started dropping immediately thereafter, bottoming out at 10.3 million barrels per day in September 2020.

The U.S is producing more oil now than when Biden took over. The 4-week average of U.S. oil production has never been as low under Biden as it was in September 2020. Want to remind me again who was President at that time?
 
At the end of the day, investor pressure to maintain capital discipline is absolutely the driver behind oil and gas activity, or lack thereof. But what is missing in that answer is the factors that drive investor sentiment. The factors driving investor sentiment, are:

1) Money. Investors didn't make satisfactory return on investment the last cycle, so the business model has changed
2) Futures prices. The 48 month strip is $72. In the face of rising inflation and increasing ops costs, full project economics aren't as rosy as they may appear on the surface. Further out, you have to take into account competing energy sources.
3) Future legislation risks. For example, Biden has already shown a willingness to cancel projects that are already in progress. Yeah the Keystone pipeline wasn't going to have a significant and direct effect on commodity prices. But it did set a precedent. As companies move away from flaring gas at the well site, it becomes critical to move that gas via pipeline. With increased production, more pipeline takeaway capacity is needed. What's Biden going to do when prices return to $70/bbl and he's not staring down the barrel of inflation? Are companies going to wind up with stranded assets they can't move because the president keeps canceling pipelines? This is an example of political risk investors must weigh.
I am not absolving Biden of responsibility. There is zero question that his anti-fossil fuel stance is discouraging investment to some extent. Both Biden and the oil companies share in the responsibility; most Democrats pretend that it is only the oil industry’s fault, and most Republicans pretend that it is only Biden’s fault. It’s nothing but political theater.

Where you lose me is when people (like the person I was responding to) claim that it is entirely Biden’s fault, and claim that this all started when Biden took office. Both of those claims are objectively false.
 
Weird.

"Number one, no more subsidies for fossil fuel industry. No more drilling on federal lands. No more drilling, including offshore. No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill, period, ends, number one." -Joe Biden (before $100+ oil and skyrocketing inflation)

I get that you love the oil companies and think they need to be protected, but that doesn’t read to me as someone canceling their existence
 
Didn't have this problem 2 years ago
I can’t tell if you’re an honest-to-god dipshit or a troll. You don’t recall Covid lockdowns and lack of consumer demand on crude oil sending prices to the floor?

I pity the education system in South Carolina and your momma.
 
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT