10/29 - 10/31 - Root for whom?

[AuroraHawk]

Somewhat of a light docket this week.

Thursday, October 29th: North Carolina at Pitt. This is easy. Despite many posters on this Board insisting that "strength of schedule" doesn't matter, I continue to believe that they are grossly misinformed or mistaken. Or, possibly both. Even if you were to ignore the ever increasing number of "national media types" who are starting to talk about Iowa's "weak" schedule, you can still look at the four criteria that will be examined by the playoff selection committee. Among the four criteria is "strength of schedule." There is truly no debate here. Quite simply, Iowa will benefit if Pitt continues to win. Indeed, we should all want Pitt to run the table and, at a minimum, play Clemson in the ACC title game.

The B1G is all West v. East on Saturday, October 31st.
Illinois at PSU. Same story as above. Iowa gains nothing out of a PSU win. An Illini win bolsters not only the Illini's record but enhances any analysis of Iowa's opponent's strength. An Illinois win in this game would nice. And I think that they have a good chance of pulling off a road win.

Michigan at Minnesota. This game boils down to a balance of two questions. Do you want the B1G West to come off as being strong? Or, do you want the B1G as a conference to come off strong? I'm torn on this one. Part of me would like to see the B1G West dominate the B1G East (and seeing Harbaugh suffer in the process). Yet, part of me believes that the B1G conference's reputation is enhanced if there are a multitude of strong ranked teams. Its a close call but I'm going to lean Michigan on this one and hope that Michigan's defense takes a toll on the Minnesota offense. Two tiebreakers for me: (1) I don't want Minnesota to get momentum before coming to Iowa City and (2) my daughter is a sophomore in Ann Arbor (yeah, I know - lame justification). Ultimately, I see Michigan winning this one and providing Iowa with a good template on how to beat the Gophers with a dominant defense.

Nebraska at Purdue. I'm setting any "strength of schedule" argument aside here. I'm pulling for Purdue. I'd very much like to see Nebraska in full-blown meltdown mode. A loss to Purdue and that team may throw in the towel for the balance of the year. They've got MSU in the rear-view mirror and are staring a strong likelihood of a losing season. Despite my hopes, I see Nebraska walking away with a big win this weekend.

Rutgers at Wisconsin. Division race be damned . . . I'm pulling for Wisconsin. Playing the "strength of schedule" card again. If Iowa can somehow hold on through the next four games, there is a very good chance that beating Wisconsin on the road could be viewed as a "high quality" win. And there is no way Rutgers beats Wisconsin.

To other conferences:
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. There is no way that OSU gets through its schedule undefeated but why not root for it this week? Go Red Raiders!

Stanford at Washington State. Its a pipe dream but I'm pulling for the upset. No way that the Cougars pull this one out. We'll be rooting for Stanford to stub their toe in one of their last 3 home games (Oregon, Cal or ND) or to lose in the Pac12 championship game.

ND at Temple. Root for an undefeated team to win again? Damn right. Here's hoping that the Irish are assaulted by the Owls on Saturday night. Owls thrive at night, right? Sure hoping so. Unfortunately, I don't have high expectations and believe that ND will grab a victory.

Pretty straight-forward and simple this week. Next week's docket looks to be a lot of fun.

 

[thirdandpunting]

What about Maryland @ Iowa?

 

[whatsup13579er]

Root for Iowa. This team controls its own destiny.

That being said root for Wiscy, jNW, Pitt and for ISU to upset someone, anyone in the BXII. Also, root for anyone in the bottom of the top 25 to lose so Wiscy and jNW get back in.

 

[Mountain Man Hawk]

I agree with you across the board. I want the BIG reputation to be good so I'm rooting for Michigan. I don't want Nebraska's last game against us to have a bowl game on the line so I'm rooting against them. And I want us to have quality wins at the end of the year so I want Wisconsin and Pittsburgh to keep winning. If we lose 2 games at this point I'll be pissed enough I won't care that we don't win the West so I'm not with everyone else that is rooting for another Wisconsin loss. Other than that I'm just rooting against all of the other good teams from other conferences (like Stanford, Notre Dame, etc) because it helps our bowl chances down the line. There are only 4 playoff spots so somebody is going to be pretty upset at the end of the year when they get left out and I'd rather that be the Pac12 than the Big10....

 

[Auger]

Agree with most of what you have said. Iowa should hope that Wisconsin, Pitt and Northwestern can finish in the top 25 by years end. I actually want ND to win this week to boost their ranking but then get upset by Pitt. That would vault Pitt up he rankings.

As for Stanford if they win out I still think it is likely they get left out of the playoff. If Iowa ends up in the Rose Bowl I would rather play Stanford or Utah then USC. Stanford and Utah are two basically B1G teams. And Stanford has trouble with other teams like them typically.

 

[KuwaitHawk]

An unbeaten B1G team will not be left out of the 4. There are no unbeaten teams in the Pac12, so that is a strike against them. No conference will get two teams unless the bottom completely falls out and major upsets occur resulting in a slew of 2-loss teams.

 

[whatsup13579er]

An unbeaten B1G team will not be left out of the 4. There are no unbeaten teams in the Pac12, so that is a strike against them. No conference will get two teams unless the bottom completely falls out and major upsets occur resulting in a slew of 2-loss teams.

Unbeaten OSU & MSU are pretty much locks to be the 1 or 2 seed. Unbeaten Iowa will have beaten #1 OSU or #2-3-4 MSU in the B1G Championship and make them a legit contender for the Playoff.

OSU's drubbing of Wisc in last years B1G Champ made people take notice that they we worthy of a spot. Iowa beating OSU/MSU would do the same thing.

 

[StormHawk42]

Don't sleep on Stanford at Wazzu. Leach has that team playing much better than usual this season.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Unbeaten OSU & MSU are pretty much locks to be the 1 or 2 seed. Unbeaten Iowa will have beaten #1 OSU or #2-3-4 MSU in the B1G Championship and make them a legit contender for the Playoff.

OSU's drubbing of Wisc in last years B1G Champ made people take notice that they we worthy of a spot. Iowa beating OSU/MSU would do the same thing.

Someone in a different thread posted the criteria for selection in the playoffs. And, I think that we all agree that the only way that Iowa gets into the playoff is by going 13-0. There isn't another plausible scenario. Even if Iowa were to win the B1G championship game but have a single loss to Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana or Nebraska, I just don't see them getting an invite.

Since it appears that most debate on this Board involves a 12-1 Pac12 conference champion in Stanford versus a 13-0 B1G conference champion in Iowa.

I believe that the four criteria are:
1. Championship game. Under the above scenario, Iowa definitely gets the advantage if it beats an undefeated OSU team. A "slight" advantage if it beats an undefeated MSU team - which, by virtue of a win over OSU - would be ranked in the top 3. If, under strange circumstances, Iowa beat a one-loss OSU or MSU, I'd call this one a push with Stanford.

2. Common opponent. Easy. Iowa wins this category. Iowa beat Northwestern. Northwestern beat Stanford.

3. Strength of schedule. A definite TBD. We could debate which team, right now, has played a tougher schedule. However, by the end of the regular season, there will likely be no debate. Stanford's overall schedule is likely tougher. That's why I'm pulling so hard for Pitt and Wisconsin. A championship game win over OSU would really help here. Depending upon Stanford's opponent in Pac12 championship game, Iowa may get a slight nod. But only slight.

4. Injuries to key players. This is a wild card category. CJB isn't getting better this year. Its all about managing the severity of the injury and hoping it doesn't get worse. That is potentially problematic. That written, I don't see Iowa beating OSU without CJB. And, if CJB is healthy enough to lead Iowa over OSU, that should allay any fears that he wouldn't perform well in the playoffs.

All that written, Stanford has the "name." Iowa doesn't. Yet, Delaney is the biggest dog among the conference presidents. And I imagine that Barry Alvarez would be a vocal advocate of the Hawkeyes over the Cardinal. And, doesn't Condoleeza Rice have to leave the room when Stanford is being discussed? That could also ultimately play in Iowa's favor.

This will be a ton of fun if Iowa can maintain focus and keep winning.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Go Rutgers.. Another Wisconsin loss puts Iowa Indy chances at around 95% in my opinion

 

[Mountain Man Hawk]

I'm pretty sure I read that the committee won't allow members to advocate for the teams from their conference. So as much as Barry Alvarez would like to promote the Big10 team to the committee, he is not allowed to. He gets assigned to research teams from other conferences and vice versa - somebody from outside the Big10 affiliation will get assigned to research the Big10 teams and their worthiness to be included in the 4 team field.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

What about Maryland @ Iowa?

I think I can speak for everyone on here, that is an Iowa fan, when I say that I will be rooting for Iowa to pull through.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

Someone in a different thread posted the criteria for selection in the playoffs. And, I think that we all agree that the only way that Iowa gets into the playoff is by going 13-0. There isn't another plausible scenario. Even if Iowa were to win the B1G championship game but have a single loss to Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana or Nebraska, I just don't see them getting an invite.

Since it appears that most debate on this Board involves a 12-1 Pac12 conference champion in Stanford versus a 13-0 B1G conference champion in Iowa.

I believe that the four criteria are:
1. Championship game. Under the above scenario, Iowa definitely gets the advantage if it beats an undefeated OSU team. A "slight" advantage if it beats an undefeated MSU team - which, by virtue of a win over OSU - would be ranked in the top 3. If, under strange circumstances, Iowa beat a one-loss OSU or MSU, I'd call this one a push with Stanford.

2. Common opponent. Easy. Iowa wins this category. Iowa beat Northwestern. Northwestern beat Stanford.

3. Strength of schedule. A definite TBD. We could debate which team, right now, has played a tougher schedule. However, by the end of the regular season, there will likely be no debate. Stanford's overall schedule is likely tougher. That's why I'm pulling so hard for Pitt and Wisconsin. A championship game win over OSU would really help here. Depending upon Stanford's opponent in Pac12 championship game, Iowa may get a slight nod. But only slight.

4. Injuries to key players. This is a wild card category. CJB isn't getting better this year. Its all about managing the severity of the injury and hoping it doesn't get worse. That is potentially problematic. That written, I don't see Iowa beating OSU without CJB. And, if CJB is healthy enough to lead Iowa over OSU, that should allay any fears that he wouldn't perform well in the playoffs.

All that written, Stanford has the "name." Iowa doesn't. Yet, Delaney is the biggest dog among the conference presidents. And I imagine that Barry Alvarez would be a vocal advocate of the Hawkeyes over the Cardinal. And, doesn't Condoleeza Rice have to leave the room when Stanford is being discussed? That could also ultimately play in Iowa's favor.

This will be a ton of fun if Iowa can maintain focus and keep winning.

Stanford's schedule is slightly tougher. However not enough to overcome the 1 loss disparity. Also, Stanford has really only blown up in the last 10 years with Harbaugh and Shaw. They're a rich man's Northwestern, hardly a big brand like a Notre Dame or a Michigan that have a national fan base.

 

[Cushawk]

I think I can speak for everyone on here, that is an Iowa fan, when I say that I will be rooting for Iowa to pull through.

not sure how all the criteria works, but I believe it works in Iowa's favor if they keep winning.

 

[Recruiting Violation]

Minor nit to pick, but Nebraska and Purdue are both B1G West teams. SOS doesn't really have too much bearing on this game, unless Nebraska pulls themselves off the mat and wins out leading up to Black Friday. I'm personally ambivalent on the result of this game. It will be funny/sad if Nebraska loses another close game, but I don't think Purdue has the juice to beat what should be an angry Nebraska team.

 

[Packer54]

NC/Pitt....no doubt "GO PITT!!!"
Ill/PSU....SOS play...go Illini
Mich/Minn....Minnesota will get crushed so I don't think it matters
Neb/Purdue....I am pulling for Purdue....so huge SOS swing either way and I would just as soon see Nebraska really down and out
Rut/Wisc....Rutgers will get taken to the woodshed
Okie St/TT...Go TT
Stanford/Wash St.....I want Wash St, I think Stanford will win BUT I don't think it will be a pushover
ND/Temple......Please Temple....PLEASE!!!

 

[bagdropper]

Is it wrong for me to wish for Purdue to beat Nebraska?

I doubt it'll happen...but that would really be something to behold. If we think the stink in Lincoln is bad now...

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Somewhat of a light docket this week.

Thursday, October 29th: North Carolina at Pitt. This is easy. Despite many posters on this Board insisting that "strength of schedule" doesn't matter, I continue to believe that they are grossly misinformed or mistaken. Or, possibly both. Even if you were to ignore the ever increasing number of "national media types" who are starting to talk about Iowa's "weak" schedule, you can still look at the four criteria that will be examined by the playoff selection committee. Among the four criteria is "strength of schedule." There is truly no debate here. Quite simply, Iowa will benefit if Pitt continues to win. Indeed, we should all want Pitt to run the table and, at a minimum, play Clemson in the ACC title game.
- SOS may matter, but not as much as you would believe. That said, yes we want Pitt to do well. Whatever makes Iowa look better...

The B1G is all West v. East on Saturday, October 31st.
Illinois at PSU. Same story as above. Iowa gains nothing out of a PSU win. An Illini win bolsters not only the Illini's record but enhances any analysis of Iowa's opponent's strength. An Illinois win in this game would nice. And I think that they have a good chance of pulling off a road win.
- At this point, yeah we would benefit from Illinois hitting their stride. They'll still, most likely, take a loss to Ohio State so we wouldn't have to worry about them catching us in any extreme circumstance, but they can be useful down the stretch in keeping Northwestern out of the race, if it ever came to that (spit-balling hypotheticals).

Michigan at Minnesota. This game boils down to a balance of two questions. Do you want the B1G West to come off as being strong? Or, do you want the B1G as a conference to come off strong? I'm torn on this one. Part of me would like to see the B1G West dominate the B1G East (and seeing Harbaugh suffer in the process). Yet, part of me believes that the B1G conference's reputation is enhanced if there are a multitude of strong ranked teams. Its a close call but I'm going to lean Michigan on this one and hope that Michigan's defense takes a toll on the Minnesota offense. Two tiebreakers for me: (1) I don't want Minnesota to get momentum before coming to Iowa City and (2) my daughter is a sophomore in Ann Arbor (yeah, I know - lame justification). Ultimately, I see Michigan winning this one and providing Iowa with a good template on how to beat the Gophers with a dominant defense.
- Minnesota game is important for several reasons. I'd rather have the best possible chance to beat Minnesota rather than allowing them to feel hope or the need to "sell out" for this game (even though recent history suggests they struggle with this when playing away from TCFBank).

Nebraska at Purdue. I'm setting any "strength of schedule" argument aside here. I'm pulling for Purdue. I'd very much like to see Nebraska in full-blown meltdown mode. A loss to Purdue and that team may throw in the towel for the balance of the year. They've got MSU in the rear-view mirror and are staring a strong likelihood of a losing season. Despite my hopes, I see Nebraska walking away with a big win this weekend.
- Of course it's always fun to see Nebraska lose, but the Huskers will win here. If they don't, I actually begin to feel concern for the Purdue game.....

Rutgers at Wisconsin. Division race be damned . . . I'm pulling for Wisconsin. Playing the "strength of schedule" card again. If Iowa can somehow hold on through the next four games, there is a very good chance that beating Wisconsin on the road could be viewed as a "high quality" win. And there is no way Rutgers beats Wisconsin.
- There is no way Rutgers should hang with Michigan State either...oh wait they did that. Wisconsin's remaining schedule is too easy, and priorities means division race trumps SOS....always. So basically, f*** Wisconsin. Lose to Rutgers.

To other conferences:
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech. There is no way that OSU gets through its schedule undefeated but why not root for it this week? Go Red Raiders!
- meh

Stanford at Washington State. Its a pipe dream but I'm pulling for the upset. No way that the Cougars pull this one out. We'll be rooting for Stanford to stub their toe in one of their last 3 home games (Oregon, Cal or ND) or to lose in the Pac12 championship game.
- it would be funny if Stanford were to drop a game somewhere and ruin the "they're the hottest team in the country now" talk.

ND at Temple. Root for an undefeated team to win again? Damn right. Here's hoping that the Irish are assaulted by the Owls on Saturday night. Owls thrive at night, right? Sure hoping so. Unfortunately, I don't have high expectations and believe that ND will grab a victory.
- I expect Temple to give Notre Dame a battle, but the Irish win. I'll also be pulling for Notre Dame just because....

 

[AuroraHawk]

I'm pretty sure I read that the committee won't allow members to advocate for the teams from their conference. So as much as Barry Alvarez would like to promote the Big10 team to the committee, he is not allowed to. He gets assigned to research teams from other conferences and vice versa - somebody from outside the Big10 affiliation will get assigned to research the Big10 teams and their worthiness to be included in the 4 team field.

The committee person has to recuse himself/herself if the person is affiliated with a school that is being discussed. Alvarez would not have to recuse himself when Iowa is being discussed. Because Rice is a professor at Stanford, she must recuse herself when Stanford is being discussed.