10 teams truly control their own destiny toward the Playoff; fun to be one of them

[El Simbolo]

As I see it there are only ten (make that eight) teams that completely control their own destiny toward the College Football Playoff. Isn’t it fun that Iowa is one of them?

The first eight are fairly straight forward. Each of these undefeated teams will be in the final four if they win their remaining games. At most four teams of these eight could all end up undefeated.

Ohio St
Baylor
Clemson
LSU
TCU
Mich St
Iowa
Okie St

earlier I had posted the paragraphs below, but remembering that Bama might need an Ole Miss loss makes me think that none of the 1-loss teams controls their own outcome.

From Original post: Alabama & Florida are the only one-loss teams that truly controls their own destiny. If either won out that would reduce the number of possible undefeated teams to 3, and the 12-1 SEC champ would be highest ranked one-loss team)

If the Big 10, Big 12, and ACC have an undefeated champ the following teams could make strong arguments to get picked over Alabama/Florida, but I think SEC would win out:
12-1 Stanford (PAC champ)
12-1 Utah (PAC champ)
11-1 Notre Dame (only loss on road to Clemson)

I don’t think you can say right now that a 12-1 Oklahoma would 100% get in because they would still get passed over any of these should they occur:

1. undefeated Big Ten champ
   
2. undefeated ACC champ
   
3. undefeated or one-loss SEC champ
   
4. possibly a 12-1 PAC champ (boy, after last year wouldn't B12 be pissed if that happened?)

 

[markfromj]

There is no "controlling one's destiny" in the CFP. I get and like the spirit of your analysis, however.

 

[Suterman]

It's great fun that Iowa is still in the mix for the play-offs. We have a LOT of games still to play so it's too early to really know who is going to survive. I hope Iowa is still standing at the end but we have a lot of winning to do before it can happen.

 

[neversurrender]

The real fun scenario is this undefeated big 10, big 12 and ACC champs. Ole miss wins the SEC with 2 losses overall but only one loss in the SEC and Memphis goes undefeated. Along with either Stanford or Notre Dame winning out.

Who is the #4 team in? Ole Miss won the SEC but they have 2 losses, Memphis owns a head to head win over the almighty SEC champ but would they let them in? Do they let Notre Dame or Stanford in instead because they have the name ? I know it's all speculation but just something to look at and say what if?

 

[Dauminator]

Alabama & Florida are the only one-loss teams that truly controls their own destiny.

They need Ole Miss to lose again.

 

[KuwaitHawk]

Hopefully Mississippi does not lose again so no matter what Alabama does, they will not be in the Top 4.

 

[revkev73]

Talent laden teams have a difficult time going 13-0...

We are walking a thin line, just by odds...but it is fun to dream about...dreams do come true.

 

[Packer54]

Pat Forde said:
-we are not a top four team now( I agree )
-we deserve to be ranked where we are currently(I agree)
-we have a nice but lucky win over Pitt, we beat Wisconsin ("big Whoop" in his words) and Northwestern is no longer who they once were earlier in the season.

Same ol crap about our schedule even on our own network. I will give the others on the show as they spoke highly of our boys.

Maryland next!!!

 

[markfromj]

How the hell did we get "lucky" against Pitt?

 

[Slappy Pappy]

I think the B12 champ might be left out again. They look really weak with the conference's best ooc wins being over 3-4 Ark., 3-4 Tenn., and 4-3 Minn.

 

[QChawks]

Wow if we lose Saturday this place is going to explode

 

[Servbot24]

Wow if we lose Saturday this place is going to explode

It's coming. Maybe not this Saturday... but it's coming.

 

[revkev73]

Why would this site explode...the season has been wonderful, beyond the highest of projections?

All teams lose...sooner or later...

 

[El Simbolo]

I stand corrected about Bama and will edit the OP. Forgot the Ole Miss angle. I'm also not so sure now that UF is a lock if they win out. Sure, there would only be at most 3 undefeateds but a one loss ND or Stanford could end up above Florida - maybe even OU

 

[BioHawk]

Why would this site explode...the season has been wonderful, beyond the highest of projections?

All teams lose...sooner or later...

Depends on how it happened. If the refs blow a couple of calls that swing the game in the other direction, yeah, this place will explode. If they just get beat, people will be upset and say a lot of profane things as it would be yet another bye week that Iowa came out and laid an egg. Last time Iowa played a game on Halloween was the 2009 Indiana game...

 

[PortlandHawk]

The real fun scenario is this undefeated big 10, big 12 and ACC champs. Ole miss wins the SEC with 2 losses overall but only one loss in the SEC and Memphis goes undefeated. Along with either Stanford or Notre Dame winning out.

Who is the #4 team in? Ole Miss won the SEC but they have 2 losses, Memphis owns a head to head win over the almighty SEC champ but would they let them in? Do they let Notre Dame or Stanford in instead because they have the name ? I know it's all speculation but just something to look at and say what if?

As long as the playoff is only 4 teams, these types of bad scenarios are not only possible but will happen. They will be one reason for a move to an 8-team playoff. The conference champs from the 5 power conferences get auto bids, plus 3 at-large bids. Rose, Fiesta, Orange, and Sugar bowls are the quarterfinals, then with 2 national semis and the championship.

 

[BioHawk]

Screw the bowls. If they go to an eight team playoff and try to get those games played in bowl games get ready to watch them play in empty stadiums. No way fan bases can be expected to travel all over the country for three straight weeks. 1st round played at the higher seed for sure, and really the second round should be as well. Championship game at a neutral site, ideally with a two week gap between the semi-finals and the championship game.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

How the hell did we get "lucky" against Pitt?

We didn't. In fact, Pitt was lucky that we essentially gifted them 2 TDs. They're a good team, but we frankly should have won that game by a larger margin.

 

[Hawks_Rock_12]

Wow if we lose Saturday this place is going to explode

No kidding, I don't know how many threads are need about SOS and CFP. Let the kids play the games and it will sort itself out in the end.

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

Enjoy 7-0. Revel in it, and hopefully by this time next week we're 8-0 and worrying about the same things.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Wow if we lose Saturday this place is going to explode

That's the problem with folks counting their chickens before they hatch.

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

There is no "controlling one's destiny" in the CFP.

Says the guy who insists that the FBS college football championship is no longer mythical.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[markfromj]

Says the guy who insists that the FBS college football championship is no longer mythical.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

I know. I thought about that. I don't think my two views here are inconsistent, but one can certainly argue they are. Good catch.

 

[Joes Place]

I believe Stanford plays ND for their last games; thus, whichever team loses that game will have at least 2 losses and will not be in the playoff. Stanford may be the only Pac12 team able to get a spot at this point.

If ND wins out, they could poach a spot from another 1-loss Power 5 team.

SEC is in for sure (they are a good conference top to bottom)

Clemson has been impressive, and even a 1-loss Clemson ACC champ is probably in; they would have the head-head argument vs a 1 loss ND team for a spot, too

B12 is in if one of them is undefeated; it'd be tough to see them get left out 2 years in a row, even if they have a one loss team; Baylor is probably done w/o their QB, but TCU has looked pretty good albeit against weak foes.

I think it could boil down to the B10 and PAC12 for the last spot, but there is still nearly half the season left, and there have been loads of 'upsets' already. It's doubtful that any Power5 conference champ that is undefeated will be left off the bus; the SEC will trump any other 1-loss Power5 or ND team, IMO.

 

[Joes Place]

possibly a 12-1 PAC champ (boy, after last year wouldn't B12 be pissed if that happened?)

I can't see a B12 team being left out if they run the table; but, a 12-1 Stanford coming off a win vs. ND....that COULD poach the spot from a 1 loss B12 team.

And, yes....they'd be justified in being pissed off if left out 2 years running. This is why a shorter regular season schedule and 8 team playoff makes some sense; otherwise, we are stuck with having 5 major conferences vying for 4 spots.

 

[modeba2004]

Actually, Oklahoma with just one loss could find themselves in the hunt if they win out. They would have beaten Baylor, TCU, and Okie St. to get there. But it is still an uphill battle. The Big 12 has no championship game and there would have to be very few remaining unbeaten teams and several once beaten teams.

 

[thewop]

How the hell did we get "lucky" against Pitt?

yea, exactly, and you could argue very easily that pitt was lucky to be in it.