A 12-1 Iowa in the Playoff?

[SotaHawk87]

If Iowa lost a close one to an undefeated Ohio State Team..

1. Stanford beats Notre Dame
2. Clemson wins out
3. Alabama wins out (Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama are in)

4. Oklahoma State loses to Baylor and Oklahoma
5. Baylor beats TCU
6. TCU beats Oklahoma

7. Baylor would need to lose to Texas (least likely of all of them)

Would need dominos to fall precisely but none of it is outside of the realm of possibility with the exception of number 7..

 

[SotaHawk87]

That would put it like this I believe.. correct me if wrong (not in order)
1. Clemson 13-0
2. Ohio State 13-0
3. Alabama 12-1
4. Iowa 12-1
5. Stanford 11-2
6. Notre Dame 10-2
7. Baylor 10-2
8. Oklahoma 10-2
9. TCU 10-2
10. Baylor 10-2
11. Florida 10-2 (best case)
12. LSU 10-2 (best case)

 

[Clifford C. Clavin]

As long as there is a 4 team playoff, it is extremely unlikely that a team loses its conference championship game and makes it. And I would say the same thing about a 12-1 Ohio State, if the loss comes in the championship. The committee has stated that it places a great deal of emphasis on winning your conference, and we saw that last year. While I would never say never, because there is probably some sequence of events that could happen, it would be difficult to have 2 from the same conference.

 

[BulliesOfTheBigTen]

Slim to none. Iowa needs to win out as far as I'm concerned.

 

[hawkifann]

There's almost no chance for a 1-loss Iowa to be in the playoff. Really, I see it like this -- if Iowa is 12-0 going into the B1G championship game, the playoffs have started. Win and advance, lose and you're done (as far as the National Championship is concerned).

 

[MauiHawk]

I think a two loss ND likely still gets in ahead of us with one loss (whether we agree with it or not)

Edit: I guess that would cause a ruckus over Stanfords treatment though, eh? Hmmm.... Maybe we would get in if only so they didn't have to put ND in over the Stanford team they just lost to.

 

[ichawk24]

A 12-1 Iowa has a 5% chance of being in the playoff.

 

[SlabHawk]

If the above scenario plays out but Iowa finishes 13-0 and Ohio State loses to Iowa to finish 12 - 1, I think Ohio State gets the nod with 1 close loss but probably not Iowa with 1 loss in the championship to OSU (Blueblood factor).

A few of us talked about this on Sat night. What do you do with a 12 - 1 Big Ten Conference Champion Iowa (loses to Nebraska in a very close loss but beats an undefeated Ohio State for the Big Ten Title) and Notre Dame loses to Stanford? ND is eliminated. Pac 12 is already eliminated right now. ALL other Big Ten teams are eliminated other than Iowa in that scenario.

Clemson
Alabama
(Baylor or Oklahoma or Okie St)
Iowa at 12 - 1 with a Big Ten Championship?
Undefeated Houston (still has to play Navy and likely Temple)?

They don't take a two loss team over a 1 loss Big Ten Champion, in my opinion!

 

[SotaHawk87]

If the above scenario plays out but Iowa finishes 13-0 and Ohio State loses to Iowa to finish 12 - 1, I think Ohio State gets the nod with 1 close loss but probably not Iowa with 1 loss in the championship to OSU (Blueblood factor).

A few of us talked about this on Sat night. What do you do with a 12 - 1 Big Ten Conference Champion Iowa (loses to Nebraska in a very close loss but beats an undefeated Ohio State for the Big Ten Title) and Notre Dame loses to Stanford? ND is eliminated. Pac 12 is already eliminated right now. ALL other Big Ten teams are eliminated other than Iowa in that scenario.

Clemson
Alabama
(Baylor or Oklahoma or Okie St)
Iowa at 12 - 1 with a Big Ten Championship?
Undefeated Houston (still has to play Navy and likely Temple)?

They don't take a two loss team over a 1 loss Big Ten Champion, in my opinion!

Good point I never thought about is that Ohio State would be in NOOO problem at 12-1..

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

I'd almost say Iowa has a better chance to make it at 12-1 if they lose to Nebraska then turn around and beat Ohio State with those above results also taking place.

 

[#1hawkeyefan1983]

ESPN's talking heads are going to forgive OU's loss to Texas because of Rivalry.

Let's say Iowa beats Purdue and then loses a close game to Nebraska and then beats an undefeated Ohio State in the B1G Title Game?

 

[sloehawk]

If Iowa wins the Big Ten Championship Game, they're in, regardless of 1 loss or not. IMO of course.

 

[HawkLogic]

As long as there is a 4 team playoff, it is extremely unlikely that a team loses its conference championship game and makes it. And I would say the same thing about a 12-1 Ohio State, if the loss comes in the championship. The committee has stated that it places a great deal of emphasis on winning your conference, and we saw that last year. While I would never say never, because there is probably some sequence of events that could happen, it would be difficult to have 2 from the same conference.

I don't think a team that doesn't win its conference should get in National title game. Otherwise, we'd be seeing 2 SEC teams ouf to 4 teams in the playoffs every year.

I think the bigger question is if Iowa lost to Nebraska, but won B1G title, would they make it. I think Iowa would need a lot of help.

 

[Mountain Man Hawk]

When it comes to college football you can overcome early losses much easier than you can overcome a late loss. The only real exception I can think of was when Nebraska lost to Colorado on Black Friday in 2001 but if I remember right that had more to do with the BCS computers than the human voters.

 

[lockjovi]

I agree that a team that doesn't win their conference shouldn't get in, I also don't think two teams that have played each other should be part of the final four. I felt that way last year if Michigan State would have won the Big Ten.

So how much help would they really need? Could just be Stanford beating Notre Dame. Iowa would have the best win of any team by beating Ohio State and would have wins over two other top 25 teams on the road plus Pitt.

Pac-12 is out. I would hope.
Clemson or North Carolina.
Alabama
Big 12 winner

Then who? I don't see two teams from the same conference getting in. Houston? A two loss Notre Dame thats best win would be Navy. Any other scenario would bring Ohio State back in play and it would (should) be impossible to pick Ohio State over Iowa after just losing to them.

 

[Lone Clone]

ESPN's talking heads are going to forgive OU's loss to Texas because of Rivalry.

Let's say Iowa beats Purdue and then loses a close game to Nebraska and then beats an undefeated Ohio State in the B1G Title Game?

Also because the Texas game was relatively early and -- assuming OU wins out -- the Boomers finished the season in an extremely strong fashion. Also, OU has a name. I would be very surprised if an 11-1 Oklahoma team weren't picked. This isn't the case for Okie State, IMHO. They've won games over unranked teams by 2, 3, 4 and 7 points, and they don't have a high profile.

Baylor isn't done losing yet.

 

[Gridiron24]

If we play Ohio State close in an all-time classic (a barnburner, 45-44 type game), maybe, but I wouldn't count on it. Pasadena is a nice consolation prize.

 

[MauiHawk]

Also because the Texas game was relatively early and -- assuming OU wins out -- the Boomers finished the season in an extremely strong fashion. Also, OU has a name. I would be very surprised if an 11-1 Oklahoma team weren't picked. This isn't the case for Okie State, IMHO..

I share your sentiments about OU... but I worry the game with Okie State could be a catch-22 for us. If OU loses, then suddenly Okie State has closed out an undefeated season with 3 quality wins in 4 games. I think we get in over Okie by beating an undefeated OSU, but anything else and we may be on the outside looking in even with zero loses.

 

[Birky]

If Iowa wins the Big Ten Championship Game, they're in, regardless of 1 loss or not. IMO of course.

I don't if they would get in, but that is the only way a 1 loss Iowa gets in. The loss would have to be to Nebraska, and then beat OSU. Iowa would get in over OSU if it came down to it.

 

[Suterman]

1 loss Iowa won't get in. 13-0 Iowa is in.

 

[Suterman]

1 loss Iowa won't get in. 13-0 Iowa is in.

 

[Omahawkeyeguy]

I think the chances would actually be better for a 12-1 Iowa with a close loss to Nebraska, but big win over OSU than an Iowa who is 12-1 losing the CCG. The conference championship weighs heavily and I think they will be likely to take a 2 loss conference champion over a 1 loss non conference champ. But that said, the only thing I think needs to happen for a 1 loss B1G champion Iowa to make the playoff is Notre Dame to lose to Stanford.

 

[Merle_Dixon]

Oh well, I see nothing wrong with a Rose Bowl bid...I'm going either way !!!

 

[DutchyFunStar]

The minute the committee passes on a conference champ in favor of their runner up, this playoff system needs to get blown up for another format.

 

[Lone Clone]

The minute the committee passes on a conference champ in favor of their runner up, this playoff system needs to get blown up for another format.

I think that point was reached when they came up with the idea. Go with 8 teams -- the P5 champions and three at-large. Then the fans of the #9 team can do the bitching.

 

[Lone Clone]

I share your sentiments about OU... but I worry the game with Okie State could be a catch-22 for us. If OU loses, then suddenly Okie State has closed out an undefeated season with 3 quality wins in 4 games. I think we get in over Okie by beating an undefeated OSU, but anything else and we may be on the outside looking in even with zero loses.

Well, if Okie State finishes 13-0, with wins over TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma in the final month of the season, there would have to be something very, very, VERY wrong if the 'Pokes didn't make the playoff. Same thing if the BiG champion finishes unbeaten. They just cannot pick a one-loss team over an undefeated champ from the BiG or Big XII.

 

[Packer54]

I would say we would not be in BUT if all sorts of wild stuff happens in front of us who knows. Obviously we need to win the Big Ten Title, and the loss would be to Nebraska. I just think there is too much pressure on people "wanting and expecting" Iowa to lose that IF we do we will drop quite a bit in the polls. I just smile thinking about how so many people will be gripping if the boys win the next two and we head to Indy undefeated. Could be the most watched Iowa game ever....

Up next....Purdue!

 

[lockjovi]

Beat Purdue and Iowa is basically in the playoffs with the conference championship game being round 1. As of today the committee has to love that the PAC-12 has basically eliminated themselves from the discussion and are probably praying for Stanford to beat ND, as it would make it easier for them. If the next two weeks played out perfectly then you would have:

Iowa (12-0) vs Ohio State (12-0)
Clemson (12-0) vs North Carolina (11-1)
Alabama (11-1) vs Florida (11-1)
OU vs OSU vs Baylor vs TCU

The committee used the conference championship against the Big-12 last year which set the precedent to leave ND out if they have to select between one loss teams. If the committee wants to maintain any sort of credibility I just don't see how they could turn around one year later and say that the conference championship game means nothing. If the committee wants to stay in power they have to maintain credibility or else its over for them as soon as the contract is up.

Of course it will not play out that way and all of a sudden Stanford will be back in the discussion.

 

[Cushawk]

What if FSU beats Florida and then Florida turns around and beats Alabama in the SEC CG? Every SEC team would have 2 losses. Would the SEC be eliminated as easily as the PAC12 has been or would they have some justification why SEC should still be in?

 

[bawlmerhawk]

15-0, don't worry about it.

 

[MauiHawk]

Well, if Okie State finishes 13-0, with wins over TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma in the final month of the season, there would have to be something very, very, VERY wrong if the 'Pokes didn't make the playoff. Same thing if the BiG champion finishes unbeaten. They just cannot pick a one-loss team over an undefeated champ from the BiG or Big XII.

Okay, well, therein lies the rub. ND is currently ahead of us in the CFP poll with a game against Stanford looming. Is a win for us over OSU enough for us to jump ND with a win over Stanford? Worse, is a win for us over a 1-loss MSU enough?

Edit: I'm actually not that against keeping the CFP to 4 teams in general.... but I feel like some stipulation needs to be made that allows undefeated teams (from either the power 5 or with a high enough CFP rank?) to get included. Maybe a wildcard game if a qualifying undefeated team finishes out of the top 4?