Yeah, and he's gotten four total RB's in his last two games against Northwestern ST. Sometimes the ball just bounces your way.
Analysis: Is Iowa good enough Defensively to win a National Championship? On March14, Per KenPom: Offensive efficiency: #2; Defensive efficiency: #50
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
Yeah, and he's gotten four total RB's in his last two games against Northwestern ST. Sometimes the ball just bounces your way.
So if the final score is 101-100, which team is better? 👀 Kidding aside, I hope we continue to use the 3/4 court press as much as possible.
This s a good story.
A couple notes from the story:
* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.
* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
THE FULL STORY / ANALYSIS:
EXCERPT: Is Iowa good enough defensively to win a title?
This is a snippet of a deep dive I took into Iowa's defensive issues this season.robdauster.substack.com
Not with this defense.
The fact is, that with Bohannon and Garza on the floor, especially at the same time, we're not going to get to the top 75 on defense when the story of the season is written. However, I do think that we don't necessarily need a top 60-75 defense (in total) for a final four appearance as long as we have enough pieces on this team to lock down when it counts and can pair that with enough offensive pieces on the floor to allow the offense to work. I think with our depth this year, that is exactly what we can do.
I think the solution at some point this season against tougher teams is playing Keegan starter type minutes at PF and take minutes from CMac and Bohannon. Our rebounding and defense are much better with him in the ballgame, he's athletic enough to defend the opposing team's best player and he is making enough shots (even the 3 ball) that the opposing team has to respect him on offense. Toussaint is a nice defensive piece as is PMac and Nunge.
Having this depth I think also pays off with the starters on this team not being forced to play an exhausting amount of minutes and being able to expend more energy on defense as well. In the end, the success we have this season is going to hinge on Fran figuring out the lineups. Specifically its about how to shuffle guys to get the right balance on the floor to not hurt our offense or defense too much at times, and to allow guys to still get enough rest.
I think the solution at some point this season against tougher teams is playing Keegan starter type minutes at PF and take minutes from CMac and Bohannon. Our rebounding and defense are much better with him in the ballgame, he's athletic enough to defend the opposing team's best player and he is making enough shots (even the 3 ball) that the opposing team has to respect him on offense. Toussaint is a nice defensive piece as is PMac and Nunge.
Having this depth I think also pays off with the starters on this team not being forced to play an exhausting amount of minutes and being able to expend more energy on defense as well. In the end, the success we have this season is going to hinge on Fran figuring out the lineups. Specifically its about how to shuffle guys to get the right balance on the floor to not hurt our offense or defense too much at times, and to allow guys to still get enough rest.
Everybody is putting a microscope on Iowa's defense, and rightfully so.
This is a good column. When Iowa's shots are not falling, can they get stops on the defensive side? Against Purdue, they did.
This is a good column. When Iowa's shots are not falling, can they get stops on the defensive side? Against Purdue, they did.
Final Four teams the last 3 years:
Median KenPom Defensive rank - 9th
Championship Game team last 3 years:
Median KenPom Defensive rank - 4th
Our current KenPom defensive rank - 96th.... Just stop it
Median KenPom Defensive rank - 9th
Championship Game team last 3 years:
Median KenPom Defensive rank - 4th
Our current KenPom defensive rank - 96th.... Just stop it
Pretty much this. This Iowa team is entertaining to watch, but thinking they are coming anywhere close to a Final 4 is just magical thinking. You cannot guard as poorly as Iowa does and get that far.
https://barttorvik.com/teampbp.php?sort=3&year=2021&conlimit=B10
This was a useful way to measure shot quality.
2 Point Defense.
Iowa is currently the 2nd worst team at allowing teams to get close in shots. However, they have the 3rd best defensive percentage on the close shots that opponents actually get at the rim. For some reason, whether it be shot blocking or luck, teams are missing close shots against Iowa.
Iowa does not force many mid range shots. Opponents take the third fewest amount of midrange shots against the defense.
3 Point Defense.
Iowa is rated 10th at limiting their opponents 3 point shots. Opponents have also been making their threes as our 3 point percentage defense is number 12.
This was a useful way to measure shot quality.
2 Point Defense.
Iowa is currently the 2nd worst team at allowing teams to get close in shots. However, they have the 3rd best defensive percentage on the close shots that opponents actually get at the rim. For some reason, whether it be shot blocking or luck, teams are missing close shots against Iowa.
Iowa does not force many mid range shots. Opponents take the third fewest amount of midrange shots against the defense.
3 Point Defense.
Iowa is rated 10th at limiting their opponents 3 point shots. Opponents have also been making their threes as our 3 point percentage defense is number 12.
We doing any better?
A reminder, from the orig post:
On average, teams entering the NCAA Tournament that win the national title rank:
* In the top 10 of adjusted offensive efficiency
* In the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency
* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
if you want to microanalyze KenPom, just remember that the current adjusted D rank is not solely how their D has performed this season. It still has a decent amount of preseason prediction baked into it.
Torvik lets you slice and dice the data. His system has Iowa #1 in offense and #115 in defense. If you strip out the preseason predictions on Torvik it ranks Iowa #2 in offense and #143 in defense (though moves Iowa up from #8 overall to #6 overall).
I think people focus too much on the individual O and D numbers, when the overall number and rank are infinitely more important. The entire world can see that Iowa is a lot better on offense than defense. That doesn't make them better or worse than a team with a similar overall rank that is similar in quality of offense and defense, it just better describes ways in which they win and lose. If Iowa loses a game in the NCAA tourney, it will probably be a shootout where they can't stop the other team. But that doesn't make them more likely to lose a game in the tournament.
Torvik lets you slice and dice the data. His system has Iowa #1 in offense and #115 in defense. If you strip out the preseason predictions on Torvik it ranks Iowa #2 in offense and #143 in defense (though moves Iowa up from #8 overall to #6 overall).
I think people focus too much on the individual O and D numbers, when the overall number and rank are infinitely more important. The entire world can see that Iowa is a lot better on offense than defense. That doesn't make them better or worse than a team with a similar overall rank that is similar in quality of offense and defense, it just better describes ways in which they win and lose. If Iowa loses a game in the NCAA tourney, it will probably be a shootout where they can't stop the other team. But that doesn't make them more likely to lose a game in the tournament.
As a reminder:
* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.
* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
Since giving up 102 in a LOSS at Minnesota, Iowa has given up:
72 vs N'western (Iowa scores 87)
75 at Rutgers (Iowa scores 77)
67 at Maryland (Iowa scores 89)
71 vs Minnesota (Iowa scores 86)
73 at N'western (Iowa scores 96)
5 wins in a row.
Thoughts?
* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.
* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
Since giving up 102 in a LOSS at Minnesota, Iowa has given up:
72 vs N'western (Iowa scores 87)
75 at Rutgers (Iowa scores 77)
67 at Maryland (Iowa scores 89)
71 vs Minnesota (Iowa scores 86)
73 at N'western (Iowa scores 96)
5 wins in a row.
Thoughts?
I remember someone trying to explain to me that it was good thing that Iowa gave up a lot of fast baskets in transition so they could get back to offense which is what they do best 😳.
Iowa likes to play at a fast pace so if their transition game is working they tend to give up a few more points than another team that likes to play a more deliberate style. I'm more interested in the defensive efficiency numbers like points per possession, opponents shooting percentages, and offensive rebounds allowed. Last I checked Iowa compared favorably to other B1G teams in conference play compared to last year. The team is 4th so far in opp. Fg% vs 13th last year.
There is still work to be done on the boards where Iowa ranks 12th vs 11th last year and in 3pt% where Iowa ranks 10th vs 7th last year. Iowa is much, much better at cleaning up the defensive boards with Nunge and Keegan in there. Nunge leads the team in rebounds per 40 minutes and Keegan is second averaging 13 and 12 respectively. Garza is third at 10.3.
Steals and blocks are both up by approx 1 per game and again, Keegan and Nunge lead the way at 2.5 and 2.0 blocks per 40 respectively. Luka and Patrick are at 1.6 and 1.3. No other player on the team has any blocks to speak of.
To all who believe that Nunge needs less minutes I disagree . Iowa's soft spot is defensive rebounding and defense. They both make mistakes that I suspect will decrease with more playing time but when he, along with Keegan are in there, those aspects of the game are greatly improved.
I think the argument is Defense is more consistent than offense and a good defensive team is more likely to survive a game where the 3balls rim out and the refs call more fouls than normal. So Iowa would be more prone to the random odd ball loss in NCAA tournament than say Gonzaga or Michigan that have both good offenses and good defenses.
Fran appears to have found some knobs he can use to turn up the defense by subbing players. I've seen recent stats that show 2-ball shooting percent defense improves a lot with Nunge at the 4 with two big look. We also have Keegan, Pmac, JoeT as subs that improve the perimeter defense greatly.
I think our hope is that Iowa can play at a top 50 level level defense when needed with certain subs and be better able to stop big runs and keep themselves in the game until shots start dropping.
Don't where you got these numbers from, but as of today, Iowa is 1st in 3pt % at 42% and 1st in rebounds at 41 a game. Worst was turn overs at 9th and ft's at 6th. Oh, this is big ten only. Which makes sense to the idea we are getting better.
The Rutgers game was too close for comfort but a win is a win is a win
We're talking about defense here with opponent's percentages. You're throwing out our own which are very good as we already know.
* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.
* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
Entering tonight's game vs OSU:
Iowa's offensive efficiency: 1st
Defensive efficiency: 117th
Per KenPom
* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
Entering tonight's game vs OSU:
Iowa's offensive efficiency: 1st
Defensive efficiency: 117th
Per KenPom
In conference play, Iowa is first in ADJOE at 126.8 (up from 117.9 last year), but 13th in ADJDE at 100.1 (improved slightly from 100.2 last year).
who's last?
At the moment, in confidential play, Bart Torvik is showing Nebraska in 14th place with an ADJDE of 100.9. Iowa is now 13th at 100.7 ADJDE.
Sorry I misunderstood. Talking about Iowa 3pt% to me is offense unless qualified.
After today's win vs Penn State:
Iowa has held its last five Big Ten opponents to 70 points or fewer
Iowa has held its last five Big Ten opponents to 70 points or fewer
Back to #74
The next two games will seriously test the Iowa D. Both are winnable but tough, especially being on the road. These will be E8/F4 type matchups.
The next two games will seriously test the Iowa D. Both are winnable but tough, especially being on the road. These will be E8/F4 type matchups.
I never thought we'd be getting into the 70's for defensive efficiency. That's encouraging.
The full Ken Pom Rankings: https://kenpom.com/
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This s a good story.
A couple notes from the story:
* On average, teams that win the national title rank in the top ten of adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 15 of adjusted defensive efficiency entering the tournament.
* Last year was the first time since the 2016 fade that the Hawkeyes had finished in the top 100 of adjusted defensive efficiency.
THE FULL STORY / ANALYSIS:
EXCERPT: Is Iowa good enough defensively to win a title?
This is a snippet of a deep dive I took into Iowa's defensive issues this season.
No
Ohio State scored 89 in their win over the Hawks on the 4th.Hopefully the Hawks can keep Michigan / Ohio St under 80. We'll see if more man to man is the miracle cure.
