I hate the losses as well but all I’m saying is get to a place where it doesn’t ruin your day or week etc…just not worth it especially when nothing will change anytime soon .
Are these reasonable expectations for the Iowa basketball program?
- Thread starter BlackNGoldBleeder
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Kind of nice to see a mostly reasonable, level headed, discussion about the state of Iowa basketball. I think most would agree that Fran did a great job of recusing the program but has fallen short, as past coaches have as well, of pushing the program to the next level of success.
My first suggestion that I mentioned earlier would be to replace a couple of assistants with A: A defensive guru and B: A relentless recruiter. Aside from that, Fran isn’t going anywhere, his philosophy isn’t going to suddenly change, so we are kind of stuck with what we have. An average program that will simultaneously entertain you while frustrating the hell out of you.
My first suggestion that I mentioned earlier would be to replace a couple of assistants with A: A defensive guru and B: A relentless recruiter. Aside from that, Fran isn’t going anywhere, his philosophy isn’t going to suddenly change, so we are kind of stuck with what we have. An average program that will simultaneously entertain you while frustrating the hell out of you.
Good post.
Hurts but it’s the truth . Thats why I’m all for expecting losses vs any team with a pulse , and being pleasantly surprised with a win . That formula just works better for me anymore .
You might be right here, but .....
..... Barta isn't a General Manager or owner of the Hawks. He doesn't set expectations either. He reports to the President, who reports to the Board of Regents.
The Board cares about three things when it comes to athletics - pay for yourself, don't embarrass the U, and, if it's not too much trouble put a team on the floor that can win some games. That's it.
And I promise you, the Board cares more about Fran's freak-outs than they care about rotations and minutes of playing time. They care more about KF's racism "thing" and rhabdo than they care about who plays QB. I'm as surprised as anyone when Barta wasn't fired a few years ago for the lawsuits. I'll bet it was a close call.
Iowa hasn't really "fired" the HC of football or basketball in the last 40 years, except for Lick. Technically Davis wasn't fired and neither was Alford.
The BOR isn't focused on championships. It's kind of like being a Cubs fan when the Rickett's have bigger things to think about than winning.
Age has given me the same perspective. I’m not going to let sports dictate my mood, win or lose, past the point of a couple of hours from when the game finished. Maybe winning a B1G title or National Championship would be an exception 😉
Yeah I’d say if you let the outcome of a game played by a bunch of kids determine your whole life, you might wanna reevaluate your priorities . I’m as frustrated as anyone about the mediocrity, but I’ve just finally realized it’s never gonna change no matter how much I bitch about it .
Not exactly a run, but last year was the 7th time in school history finishing in the top 10 of the AP poll. The first time since 1987 and only the second time in the last 50 years.
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Be in the top tier of the conference 2/4 years.
I don't know what "in the top tier" means. So...yeah... I guess depending on how you define it, it's reasonable. Is that like "upper division finish"?
Finish in the Top 25 2/4 years.
Not reasonable.
Be a serious contender for a conference title 1/4 years.
Not reasonable. Laughable really, considering we haven't won even one in the last 43 years.
Make a Sweet 16 run or better 1/4 years.
Not reasonable. Again... We've had one (23 years ago) in the last 35 years.
Play your second best player more than 17 mpg.
lol. Eminently reasonable.
Not play a guard shooting under 18% from the field and 3-point line 15 mpg.
Now you're just being a wise ass.
Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Ohio State all have better programs than Iowa. Give Rutgers another five years and add them to the above list.
That's just the way it is. Find another Lute and we can gain some ground. That's a tall order though. Coaches like that are half a dozen in a generation type coaches. We're going to need a little luck.
I don't know what "in the top tier" means. So...yeah... I guess depending on how you define it, it's reasonable. Is that like "upper division finish"?
Finish in the Top 25 2/4 years.
Not reasonable.
Be a serious contender for a conference title 1/4 years.
Not reasonable. Laughable really, considering we haven't won even one in the last 43 years.
Make a Sweet 16 run or better 1/4 years.
Not reasonable. Again... We've had one (23 years ago) in the last 35 years.
Play your second best player more than 17 mpg.
lol. Eminently reasonable.
Not play a guard shooting under 18% from the field and 3-point line 15 mpg.
Now you're just being a wise ass.
Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Ohio State all have better programs than Iowa. Give Rutgers another five years and add them to the above list.
That's just the way it is. Find another Lute and we can gain some ground. That's a tall order though. Coaches like that are half a dozen in a generation type coaches. We're going to need a little luck.
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Let’s look at some Sweet 16 numbers. In the last 20 years here are some programs and the number of times they’ve made the S16
ISU 3
Wisconsin 10
Illinois 4
Minnesota 0
Missouri 2
Nebraska 0
Kansas St 2
Indiana 4
Purdue 6
Ohio St 5
Texas 5
Oklahoma 5
So to get to the 1/4 years level Iowa would need to be at the same level as Purdue, Ohio St, Texas, and Oklahoma. I thought 1/4 was pretty reasonable but maybe it’s closer to 1/6.
ISU 3
Wisconsin 10
Illinois 4
Minnesota 0
Missouri 2
Nebraska 0
Kansas St 2
Indiana 4
Purdue 6
Ohio St 5
Texas 5
Oklahoma 5
So to get to the 1/4 years level Iowa would need to be at the same level as Purdue, Ohio St, Texas, and Oklahoma. I thought 1/4 was pretty reasonable but maybe it’s closer to 1/6.
Again, some of you are confusing where this program can go with where it’s been in the past. With the right person at the helm those are not wholly unreasonable expectations. Sure, hitting all of them would be above and beyond reasonable, but certainly not unascertainable. Personally I’m not satisfied with what Fran has done, and think a change could be beneficial. I’m still looking for those 3rd place banners in CHA.
Fran's record in the postseason is by far the most unacceptable part of his resume at Iowa. He has been a clear failure in the postseason. On the clear plus side, Fran runs an incredibly clean program with no hint of cutting corners, at least that I know about.
Take away the first couple of years digging out of the Lick hole, Iowa has usually been a top half of the B1G team, with a couple of times where they were "serious contenders". Most other B1G programs have advantages over Iowa, especially their in-state recruiting base, so expectations higher than the original post, are close to fantasy. If Fran doesn't start taking better advantage of the portal and get a transfer or two to fill needs almost every year, it is unrealistic to think that things are going to get better. This year's team really got hurt by the guys leaving. Rebraca was a decent pick up, but is really just a solid backup at 4/5 for top teams.
Take away the first couple of years digging out of the Lick hole, Iowa has usually been a top half of the B1G team, with a couple of times where they were "serious contenders". Most other B1G programs have advantages over Iowa, especially their in-state recruiting base, so expectations higher than the original post, are close to fantasy. If Fran doesn't start taking better advantage of the portal and get a transfer or two to fill needs almost every year, it is unrealistic to think that things are going to get better. This year's team really got hurt by the guys leaving. Rebraca was a decent pick up, but is really just a solid backup at 4/5 for top teams.
Is there any risk anymore though? With nil, people can get paid wherever they go.
I agree. And Bruce Pearl's teams are a lot of fun to watch. I would love if Iowa had that type of excitement again.
NOTHING is unreasonable for a major conference team in basketball. It only takes a couple players to dramatically make over your team. Look slightly to the West at ISU. They were 2-22 last year right? Get some better players and coach them up a little and you can do a complete 180. Look at some of the schools that have had success outside the power 5 in my lifetime. Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Butler, Creighton, Whichita State, hell even Drake had a good 2 or 3 years run there. UNI had a good run of tournament teams. Massachusetts was a #1 team when I was a kid. Georgetown. Memphis had good years. St Joseph's had a good run.
There are plenty of examples of much smaller schools in lesser conferences that had strong conference AND tournament success.
For power 5 look at Baylor. They were basically a death penalty program after Dave Bliss. Iowa played them for an NIT Championship when both teams were coming out of their darkest days. Baylor won a national championship and has had far better conference AND tournament success than Iowa has had since that game.
The Murray brothers might both be in the NBA next year. How many career starts will they finish with vs the trio of Bohannon and the coaches kids?
I have the same frustrations with Kirk many others do re: the offense and reluctance to change, but Kirk has accomplished a lot more IMO. He won the West, which let's say is equivalent to Fran making the BTT finals, hell, I will even lower the bar and BTT final 4--Fran has 0% chance of doing either. Kirk has also won some bowl games against sexier teams, so let's say this is equivalent to Fran winning a second round NCAA game--again, something he will never do.
We have a coach who is delusional about his own abilities and those of 90% of the players he recruits. I don't expect Fran, or any coach, to be 100% in evaluating high school kids, but for 12 years we have heard Fran blow guys up as versatile scorers who can shoot it and put it on the deck. What he leaves out is "in practice". With a handful of exceptions over 12 years, we don't see these guys showcase these skills on the court or develop while in the program. To compound this, Fran won't, or can't, recruit over guys, so it's a wait your turn to start and be guaranteed minutes even if we have Kobe, LeBron, and MJ on the bench.
I agree with others who said change is needed, but you can't convince a delusional egomaniac like Fran that he isn't doing a tremendous job. The guy bristles at the slightest hint of criticism, so thinking he will change assistants or listen to them if he does, is like expecting Kirk to recognize the value of a mobile QB.
We have a coach who is delusional about his own abilities and those of 90% of the players he recruits. I don't expect Fran, or any coach, to be 100% in evaluating high school kids, but for 12 years we have heard Fran blow guys up as versatile scorers who can shoot it and put it on the deck. What he leaves out is "in practice". With a handful of exceptions over 12 years, we don't see these guys showcase these skills on the court or develop while in the program. To compound this, Fran won't, or can't, recruit over guys, so it's a wait your turn to start and be guaranteed minutes even if we have Kobe, LeBron, and MJ on the bench.
I agree with others who said change is needed, but you can't convince a delusional egomaniac like Fran that he isn't doing a tremendous job. The guy bristles at the slightest hint of criticism, so thinking he will change assistants or listen to them if he does, is like expecting Kirk to recognize the value of a mobile QB.
I would have hired Pearl in a heartbeat. He is a proven winner at a couple of levels. Is there a certain amount of risk? Sure, but like it has been stated, look how many teams in the top twenty today have had their hands caught in the cookie jar and have not missed a beat. Pearl gets the fanbase excited and is a helluva recruiter and a winner. Can only imagine how different the Iowa situation would be if we had rolled the dice and hired him.
I think that when people reference Iowa history over the last 40 years as a reason why it's not reasonable to expect something more, that says more about the coaches that Iowa has had than what's possible today. Look at what Wisconsin has done in the last 20 years if you want to see what's possible if done right. Wisconsin doesn't have huge advantages over Iowa and yet has been in the top 4 of the conference for how many of the last 20 years? Someone just said they've been to 10 sweet 16's ? Is that accurate?
I’ve been “over” Fran as our coach for the past 5 years. He’s 100% an average coach. Don’t believe me? He’s won .500 of Big 10 games. I now “record” games and sort of skip through them … Iowa can do better than Fran… Hell TJ took/created a roster of misfits from a 2-22 team and has them ranked. Iowa absolutely can be better… but not under Fran.
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I like Bruce Pearl's energy. His willingness to do whatever it takes crosses the line a little too much for me.
Newsflash: we will not go to a Sweet 16 or better with Fran
We will also never win a Big 10 title, regular season or tourney.
We are what we are
We will also never win a Big 10 title, regular season or tourney.
We are what we are
Hopefully all of the posters that are clamoring for change in HC (honestly, I have no attachment to Fran, so do what you want) are wiling to open up your pocket books and donate money so the next coach has NIL money to attract the players you want. As easy as some posters think it is to "just go to the portal", you're not going to go to the portal and get the top players in the portal without having that NIL available.
Outside of Lute Olson, the only time Iowa brought in a top class what George Raveling and the Iowa fan base couldn't wait for him to be gone. Tom Davis didn't "get us to the next level", so he had to go, which brought in the Steve Alford era. I think we can admit, those weren't glory years, which led us to Lickliter (the reigning COY), which was a completely different style than Alford and an unmitigated train wreck.
For many years, the fans were appreciative of Fran to have Iowa respectable and somewhat relevant in the Big Ten. Last year's team didn't meet expectations ... would healthy versions of Nunge and Frederick have made a difference? Hindsight is 20/20 and it's a difficult question to answer. This year's team has been better than the expectations that most reasonable people had. The non-conference schedule was very soft (by design), which was a good move for a team replacing 4 guys that were starters last year (3 that weren't expected to be gone).
I get that fans and fan bases get fatigued of having the same coach over the years. Firing the coach is always an easy step to take. The unknown is what you are going to get to replace and it's a roll of the dice.
Outside of Lute Olson, the only time Iowa brought in a top class what George Raveling and the Iowa fan base couldn't wait for him to be gone. Tom Davis didn't "get us to the next level", so he had to go, which brought in the Steve Alford era. I think we can admit, those weren't glory years, which led us to Lickliter (the reigning COY), which was a completely different style than Alford and an unmitigated train wreck.
For many years, the fans were appreciative of Fran to have Iowa respectable and somewhat relevant in the Big Ten. Last year's team didn't meet expectations ... would healthy versions of Nunge and Frederick have made a difference? Hindsight is 20/20 and it's a difficult question to answer. This year's team has been better than the expectations that most reasonable people had. The non-conference schedule was very soft (by design), which was a good move for a team replacing 4 guys that were starters last year (3 that weren't expected to be gone).
I get that fans and fan bases get fatigued of having the same coach over the years. Firing the coach is always an easy step to take. The unknown is what you are going to get to replace and it's a roll of the dice.
Bo, Lute... There's only a handful of those kinds of coaches in a generation. That's why I said it takes some luck.
Saying you are going to hire the next Bo Ryan is like planning on winning the lotto as your retirement plan. Not quite those odds but you get the idea. It will take a really savvy administration and a little luck to make up some ground on the rest of the league. Iowa is basketball nowheresville.
It’s the inability to play defense that frustrates me the most. We all sit and moan about a guy having a career night against Iowa…or wide open corner threes…or a teams scoring +15 above their season averages against us.
Well, when you can’t play D, those things happen. Then we’re 1 player foul trouble away or a cold night shooting away, from frustrating losses.
Well, when you can’t play D, those things happen. Then we’re 1 player foul trouble away or a cold night shooting away, from frustrating losses.
If your reading comprehension is that bad, have someone read what I wrote to you. I don't care what happens, but making a coaching change is no guarantee things will get better. If you don't get a pool of NIL money together, possible things could get worse, even quite a bit worse.
Pretty much with you. Fran's son was 5th on the team in minutes last year, more than Keegan Murray, more than Jack Nunge (before he got hurt), and Kr. Murray didn't play appreciable minutes. Played almost as much as Frederick. Can't tell me that this decision didn't impact the team.
I understand some concern about having a coaching hire miss, but I think some are taking it to extremes. Particularly in b-ball now we can see that a program can be turned around very quickly.
Fire Fran or don't fire Fran. But definitely no more contract extensions without some team accomplishment, preferably a sweet 16. And yes, that includes the "but you have to for recruiting" contract giveaways.
If the next guy doesn't get it done in 4 years or less, then move on. As long as they can minimize payouts I could live with some sub.500 seasons for a good shot at sweet 16 and better.
Fire Fran or don't fire Fran. But definitely no more contract extensions without some team accomplishment, preferably a sweet 16. And yes, that includes the "but you have to for recruiting" contract giveaways.
If the next guy doesn't get it done in 4 years or less, then move on. As long as they can minimize payouts I could live with some sub.500 seasons for a good shot at sweet 16 and better.
Exactly how I see it. The "this is the way it's been for 30 years, so this is the best that's possible" is baloney. As you said, just look at Wisconsin.
Here's their history: https://uwbadgers.com/sports/2015/08/21/GEN_20140101419.aspx
As you can see, other than one title in 1940, that program was absolute garbage historically basically until Bo Ryan took over. If past results guarantee future returns, then Wisconsin had no business winning the way they did. Yeah, obviously that means getting the right guy. Same for us.
Iowa's program has been better at times in the past than it is right now. It's just been a while. I understand the recruiting challenges most programs have, Iowa included, but this is not our ceiling.
Frankly, all I think it would take under Fran is coaching some defense. The offense is certainly sufficient.
Because almost all ISU’s team transferred out? So they had to plug numerous holes very quickly. I would imagine while TJ will still use the portal, it won’t be used as extensively in the future.
Also, let’s look at some facts. As much as you’re drooling over ISU’s defense, their offense stinks. The folks on this site who marvel over ISU’s turnaround conveniently overlook how much they struggle on offense.
They don’t let Fran off the hook for Iowa’s D but somehow TJ walks between the raindrops unscathed by criticism.
That’s because he took over a team that won two games last year.
We’ll see how the next few years play out.
This is true, and he’s done a great job imo, but that team has a lot of warts. They are 1 and done in the tourney unless the play a team similar to theirs.
Don't forget UNI got to sweet16 in 2010. So UNI with 1 berth and ISU with 3 berths in 20 years.....while I agree ISU home court advantage is better than iowa's, part of a coaches job is marketing...there are a lot of things that could be done to improve Carver attendence...if Fran cared more about winning and less about his own salary, it would get done. ISU is an easy bench mark to compare Iowa to...Iowa dominates the instate recruiting, yet ISU put up better teams when measured by top end success.
I agree the OP's expectations are too hopeful, but why can't we ask Fran to win a BTT once every 15 years or at least make the Sunday championship game, get to sweet 16 once every 15 years? He's done neither of those things and he's in fact 0 for a 37 year career of even at random getting into sweet16. I think that points to a flawed system---clearly the guy doesn't embrace defense, plays favorites, poor in game coach, and plays his favorites over merit.
We have Fran who is an older man with OLD man syndrome---instead of a young go getter with upside potential.
I have been lukewarm on Fran for awhile. It started with me wth his statement 6 or so years ago when he put together a terrible Lickliter-like team and he told the press he wasn't on the Hot seat because of his "body of work"......this guy is too comfortable in his position for a guy with run of the mill 0.500 B1G record. Nearly everbody coaching at Iowa as done as well, nothting special about Fran's record and he's responsible for most of the 21 year or so dry spell in NCAA sweet16's all by himself.
More Hawk Illogical:
Please name the three times ISU has been to the sweet 16 in the last 20 years.
Even more illogical: “yet ISU put up better teams when measured by top end success.”
When? In the last five years? The last 20? In its history? Final Fours? Elite 8’s? Sweet 16’s? NCAA appearances? Conference Championships?
the last two are no brainers for any school, even a girls middle school team
The NCAA Tournament is one of the most random sporting events in the world. The randomness and chaos is what makes March Madness so popular even to people who don't watch a lick of the regular season. It's why Virginia can go from being the first #1 seed to lose in the first round one season to winning the National Championship the next. It's why since 2013 Jay Wright has 2 National Championships, but he also has failed to get out of the first weekend 5 times which includes 3 times as a 1 or 2 seed. I think it's foolish to place high expectations about what happens during the tournament or to judge a coach purely on what happens there. Especially at a place like Iowa. The tournament is just too random.
As far as expectations for Iowa basketball, I'd say making the tournament 3 times every 5 years is a sufficient and realistic expectation and that's about it. If fans want Conference Championships to be part of the expectations then they better start trying to pour more money into the program because Iowa basketball's revenue and budget is toward the bottom of the conference. Not to mention having the worst recruiting territory in the conference plus the issues with attendance and atmosphere. Whether some fans want to admit it or not, Fran has overachieved given Iowa's place in the conference. If fans want more then they need to give more.
As far as expectations for Iowa basketball, I'd say making the tournament 3 times every 5 years is a sufficient and realistic expectation and that's about it. If fans want Conference Championships to be part of the expectations then they better start trying to pour more money into the program because Iowa basketball's revenue and budget is toward the bottom of the conference. Not to mention having the worst recruiting territory in the conference plus the issues with attendance and atmosphere. Whether some fans want to admit it or not, Fran has overachieved given Iowa's place in the conference. If fans want more then they need to give more.
Power 5 teams have every advantage in the world. Listening to Gary Parrish on the radio in KC right now. We talk about the disadvantages Iowa has playing in the Big Ten gives them way more advantages than disadvantages. You play no true road games in the preseason, so you should fatten up on 9-10 wins automatically in the preseason. The majority of your conference games are quad 1 and 2 games. Play 500 in those games along with taking care of business in the preseason and you make the tournament every year. I honestly expect to make it 4 out of every 5 years. Not as a top 3-4 seed, but at a 8-9 seed pretty much every year. A decent coach can do that.
