B1G Records and Seeding Predictions

[UndercoverHawk]

Alright I compiled a spreadsheet of everyone’s records and rankings and we can guess what the coaches will do with the Big Ten Seeds. Obviously different wrestlers could get entered, but I went with the guy that had the most data in cases where we are unsure. Rankings are as of Tuesday so they don’t reflect any of this weekends matches. Overall record, record against Big Ten opponents, and rankings are listed as additional info in case of close calls. For all the weights it’s School, Wrestler, Big Ten dual record, record against any Big Ten opponent at any point during the season, overall record, rankings (Flo/Intermat)

125
ILL, Riley, 1-7, 1-8, 3-13, NR/NR
IND, Moran, 5-3, 9-5, 20-7, 18/20
IOWA, Cruz, 6-2, 6-2, 10-8, 14/16
MD, Garvin, 0-7, 0-7, 4-17, NR/NR
MICH, C Tanefeu, 1-3, 2-4, 7-9, NR/NR
MSU, Weiand, 2-5, 4-8, 10-12, NR/NR
MINN, Flynn, 3-3, 4-3, 12-4, 16/17
NEB, Smith, 6-1, 9-1, 17-4, 6/7
NW, Navarro, 4-3, 8-4, 14-10, 32/NR
OSU, McCrone, 4-4, 5-5, 19-7, 15/21
PSU, Lilledahl, 6-2, 7-2, 15-2, 9/9
PUR, Ramos, 6-0, 6-0, 23-0, 1/1
RUT, Peterson, 6-1, 9-1, 18-3, 8/8
WIS, Rivera, 5-3, 6-3, 16-3, 20/18

I think Cruz gets the 5 seed going Ramos, Peterson, Lilledahl, Smith, Cruz, Moran, Rivera. There’s a chance they flip Smith and Lilledahl and a chance they flip Cruz and Moran, but I think Cruz is the 5 seed.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

133
ILL, Byrd, 7-1, 7-1, 15-1, 2/3
IND, Rini, 5-3, 6-3, 16-7, 25/28
IOWA, Ayala, 5-0, 6-0, 15-1, 1/2
MD, Brown, 7-1, 8-1, 19-2, 8/5
MICH, Wertanen, 0-7, 0-7, 5-13, NR/NR
MSU, Hampton, 1-6, 1-9, 4-12, NR/NR
MINN, Wells, 1-4, 1-4, 9-5, 11/19
NEB, Van Dee, 6-2, 7-2, 11-7, 15/16
NW, Odiotti, 3-5, 6-6, 9-13, NR/NR
OSU, Bouzakis, 2-4, 4-5, 18-6, 12/12
PSU, Davis, 3-2, 3-2, 8-3, 5/7
PUR, Norris, 2-5, 3-5, 7-10, NR/NR
RUT, Shawver, 5-3, 6-3, 16-6, 9/10
WIS, Fugit, 5-3, 5-3, 14-5, 18/15

Obviously Ayala gets the 1 seed. Byrd should be the 2 and Brown the 3. I think Van Dee will be the 4 and not sure if they will put Davis at the 5 or not with fewer matches. He did beat Shawver who beat Fugit and Rini so it seems likely that Davis will be the 5 but you never know. That makes Shawver the 6, Fugit the 7, Rini the 8. I’d probably give Odiotti the 9 since he wrestled the whole dual schedule and has more big ten wins than Bouzakis, making Bouzakis the 10.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

141
ILL, Pucino, 5-3, 5-3, 12-4, 16/17
IND, Porter, 4-3, 5-4, 12-7, 30/26
IOWA, Schriever, 2-3, 2-3, 4-9, NR/NR
MD, Lemus, 2-6, 2-6, 7-13, NR/NR
MICH, Lemley, 4-4, 5-4, 14-7, 11/12
MSU, Crumpler, 0-7, 0-10, 4-15, NR/NR
MINN, Vombaur, 6-2, 7-2, 20-3, 8/8
NEB, Hardy, 7-1, 8-1, 19-3, 4/6
NW, Cannon, 2-5, 2-5, 3-6, NR/NR
OSU, Mendez, 7-1, 7-1, 22-1, 2/2
PSU, Bartlett, 8-0, 8-0, 17-0, 1/1
PUR, Clark, 3-3, 3-3, 11-9, NR/27
RUT, Olivieri, 4-2, 5-2, 15-5, 15/13
WIS, Bobzien, 1-7, 1-7, 5-14, NR/NR

I think Schriever could be 9-12 but I think he slots in at the 10 seed behind Clark and ahead of Lemus, Crumpler, Cannon, and Bobzien.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

149
ILL, Webster, 4-4, 5-4, 11-5, 18/16
IND, Buttler, 0-4, 3-5, 12-9, NR/NR
IOWA, Parco, 7-1, 7-1, 18-1, 3/3
MD, Miller, 4-3, 5-3, 17-7, 32/31
MICH, Gilcher, 3-3, 3-5, 8-6, 27/24
MSU, Jones, 2-6, 2-6, 6-11, NR/NR
MINN, Roberts, 2-6, 3-6, 10-6, 25/29
NEB, Lovett, 7-1, 7-1, 15-2, 4/4
NW, Cartella, 6-2, 7-4, 14-7, 23/25
OSU, D’Emilio, 6-2, 7-2, 16-3, 6/6
PSU, Van Ness, 7-1, 8-1, 16-1, 2/2
PUR, Ruble, 2-6, 2-7, 8-11, NR/NR
RUT, Clark, 5-2, 8-3, 19-9, 24/19
WIS, Nilo, 0-5, 0-6, 1-11, NR/NR

1-3 can be any way, but I think they follow national rankings and Parco is the 2. Van Ness, Parco, Lovett, D’Emilio, Clark, Cartella, Webster, Miller, Gilcher round out the top 9 seeds.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

157
ILL, Kraisser, 4-4, 4-4, 8-7, 26/30
IND, Garvick, 1-7, 3-8, 4-12, NR/NR
IOWA, Teemer, 2-1, 2-1, 5-2, 2/3
MD, Miller, 7-0, 8-0, 19-0, 5/5
MICH, Saldate, 2-3, 5-4, 9-6, 15/16
MSU, Stauffenberg, 1-5, 1-5, 5-13, NR/NR
MINN, Askey, 6-2, 6-2, 20-3, 9/8
NEB, Taylor, 6-1, 8-1, 18-2, 4/4
NW, Chumbley, 5-1, 5-1, 8-3, 11/9
OSU, Cannon, 2-1, 4-1, 14-2, 10/10
PSU, Kasak, 5-1, 6-1, 14-1, 1/1
PUR, Blaze, 5-1, 5-2, 15-4, 8/7
RUT, Harer, 4-4, 5-4, 13-8, 25/29
WIS, Mechler, 2-6, 2-7, 9-13, NR/NR

This is the nightmare weight for seeding. You could make an argument for Teemer. anywhere from 3-7 imo. I think Teemer gets the 5 seed. Miller, Kasak, Taylor, Blaze, Teemer, Askey, Chumbley, Cannon.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

165
ILL, Scoles, 5-3, 5-3, 13-3, 16/14
IND, Lillard, 4-3, 6-5, 18-7, 18/19
IOWA, Caliendo, 7-1, 9-1, 18-1, 2/2
MD, Uryniak, 1-7, 1-7, 2-12, NR/NR
MICH, Mantanona, 6-2, 6-2, 10-3, 14/10
MSU, Nivison, 1-7, 3-7, 8-11, NR/NR
MINN, Sparks, 5-3, 5-4, 19-5, 15/11
NEB, Minto, 6-1, 7-1, 13-2, 13/8
NW, Mayfield, 3-4, 3-7, 16-8, 17/18
OSU, Gallagher, 1-1, 1-1, 11-5, 12/9
PSU, Mesenbrink, 8-0, 10-0, 18-0, 1/1
PUR, Buell, 2-6, 2-6, 12-12, NR/NR
RUT, White, 1-4, 3-6, 12-8, 27/23
WIS, Anderson, 1-4, 1-4, 5-8, NR/NR

Caliendo is clearly the 2 seed. I think it goes Mesenbrink, Caliendo, Minto, Mantanona, Sparks, Scoles, Lillard, Gallagher, Mayfield top 9.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

174
ILL, Braunagel, 4-4, 4-4, 8-8, 22/24
IND, Gilcher, 3-3, 5-4, 14-5, 31/31
IOWA, Kennedy, 4-3, 5-3, 10-3, 7/11
MD, John, 2-6, 3-7, 10-14, NR/NR
MICH, Walker, 2-5, 3-5, 9-7, 32/30
MSU, Garza, 3-5, 6-7, 12-11, NR/NR
MINN, Whiting, 5-3, 7-3, 14-8, 21/23
NEB, Pinto, 7-1, 7-1, 18-4, 12/10
NW, Vandenbush, 0-8, 2-12, 4-15, NR/NR
OSU, Kharchla, 7-1, 7-1, 11-1, 5/5
PSU, Haines, 8-0, 9-0, 16-1, 2/2
PUR, Baumann, 3-5, 4-5, 16-8, 23/25
RUT, Turley, 3-4, 4-4, 13-8, 26/27
WIS, Condon, 4-4, 8-5, 13-9, NR/NR

If it’s Kennedy then he’s the 4 seed with Haines, Kharchla, Pinto, Kennedy, Whiting. If it’s Nelson I have no idea. He’s 1-0 in Big Ten with the 1 win against the 14 seed. Would you slot him into the 7 seed? 8 seed?

 

[UndercoverHawk]

184
ILL, Ruth, 5-3, 5-4, 10-6, 12/12
IND, Washington, 3-4, 4-4, 10-6, NR/24
IOWA, Arnold, 5-2, 5-2, 13-2, 7/8
MD, Smith, 6-2, 6-2, 16-5, 10/11
MICH, Bullock, 2-6, 3-7, 9-11, NR/26
MSU, Daly, 0-5, 5-6, 10-12, NR/NR
MINN, McEnelly, 8-0, 8-0, 18-0, 4/4
NEB, Allred, 5-2, 5-2, 16-3, 6/7
NW, Halvorsen, 2-4, 2-7, 8-11, NR/NR
OSU, Rogotzke, 3-5, 3-5, 6-6, 16/18
PSU, Starocci, 8-0, 9-0, 17-0, 1/1
PUR, Cruz, 3-5, 3-7, 8-10, NR/NR
RUT, Cartagena-Walsh, 4-4, 5-6, 19-9, 15/16
WIS, Russo, 0-7, 0-8, 3-12, NR/NR

Arnold is the 4 seed. Starocci, McEnelly, Allred, Arnold, Smith, Ruth, Cartegena-Walsh.

 

[smalls103]

what is the second record?

 

[UndercoverHawk]

197
ILL, Braunagel, 5-3, 5-3, 11-5, 12/18
IND, Sollars, 3-5, 6-6, 14-9, 22/21
IOWA, Buchanan, 8-0, 8-0, 19-0, 1/1
MD, Mielnik, 1-6, 1-6, 10-13, NR/NR
MICH, Cardenas, 7-1, 8-1, 15-1, 3/3
MSU, Cotton, 2-5, 5-7, 12-9, 24/26
MINN, Salazar, 5-2, 6-2, 14-4, 9/8
NEB, McDanel, 4-4, 5-4, 15-9, 20/20
NW, Bates, 4-4, 6-5, 16-8, 19/13
OSU, Shumate, 1-6, 2-6, 8-12, 23/23
PSU, Barr, 7-1, 9-1, 16-1, 2/2
PUR, Vanadia, 4-4, 4-5, 15-9, NR/27
RUT, Poznanski, 4-3, 4-5, 12-6, 21/22
WIS, Colucci, 0-4, 0-4, 1-11, NR/NR

Buchanan obviously the 1 seed. Buchanan, Barr, Cardenas, Salazar, Braunagel, Bates, McDanel, Poznanski, Vanadia top 9.

 

[MitchLL]

Nice job, OP.

Explanations look reasonable.

 

[Slim45]

what is the second record?

Ranked opponents im guessing? Conference, ranked, overall…

 

[DeadHead11]

what is the second record?

Looks like record against any Big Ten opponent at any point during the season (duals + tourneys)

 

[blcoach80]

Awesome stuff Undercover Hawk. Thanks

 

[UndercoverHawk]

285
ILL, Luffman, 6-2, 6-2, 13-3, 10/10
IND, Bullock, 4-4, 7-5, 15-8, 19/18
IOWA, Kueter, 5-3, 6-3, 12-5, 11/11
MD, Nevills, 4-4, 5-4, 15-4, 12/12
MICH, Heindselman, 6-2, 7-2, 18-2, 7/8
MSU, Vanadia, 3-5, 7-7, 14-14, 33/NR
MINN, Steveson, 8-0, 8-0, 11-0, 1/1
NEB, Andrews, 2-6, 2-8, 9-12, 22/21
NW, Morley, 1-7, 1-8, 3-15, NR/NR
OSU, Feldman, 5-3, 7-3, 14-4, 8/9
PSU, Kerkvliet, 6-0, 6-0, 15-0, 2/2
PUR, Filipovich, 3-5, 3-6, 11-13, NR/NR
RUT, Slavikouski, 3-3, 5-4, 13-5, 9/7
WIS, Rosenfeld, 0-7, 0-7, 6-9, NR/NR

I think Kueter is the 5 seed. Only person seeded behind him by me that has a claim to pass him is Slavikouski because he beat Luffman, but he lost to Feldman and Buklock so I think he’s behind Kueter. But I got it Steveson, Kerkvliet, Heindselman, Luffman, Kueter, Feldman, Nevills, Slavikouski, Bullock top 9.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

what is the second record?

Record against other Big Ten opponents but not just in the duals (like Miller beat Blaze at a tourney and they didn’t wrestle in the dual). Sometimes those are relevant.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

Record against other Big Ten opponents but not just in the duals (like Miller beat Blaze at a tourney and they didn’t wrestle in the dual). Sometimes those are relevant.

Well done!

 

[The-Dude-Abides]

Thanks for all the data, Undercover! Very useful, and your estimates seem about right. I would take most of those draws.

 

[smalls103]

do you include, or take out the results against Big Ten backups?

as in, are you counting Caleb Smith's win over Ashton Jackson (Purdue) ?

i think the Big Ten only lists record against those 'in the field' (those in the conference tournament).

i'm nerding out here but just curious.

 

[ChiPackHawk]

do you include, or take out the results against Big Ten backups?

as in, are you counting Caleb Smith's win over Ashton Jackson (Purdue) ?

i think the Big Ten only lists record against those 'in the field' (those in the conference tournament).

i'm nerding out here but just curious.

Fair comment but at this point predicting with 100% assurance of who will be going is not a for sure thing either.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

do you include, or take out the results against Big Ten backups?

as in, are you counting Caleb Smith's win over Ashton Jackson (Purdue) ?

i think the Big Ten only lists record against those 'in the field' (those in the conference tournament).

i'm nerding out here but just curious.

I included everyone. At some schools (MSU and Wisc) it can be hard to tell who will be in the field because every option isn’t a good one. Or like Iowa 141. Choosing between guys with losing records, why is a win over Schriever better than a win over Block just because (I think) Schriever will be the guy?

 

[smalls103]

yes, i get it, and i feel your pain.

was just wondering.

 

[MVPFAN]

Keep in mind big ten seeding is based on coaches opinion.