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BIG Tens - How much ground do we have to make up?

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AaronJDixon

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Apr 11, 2017
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Below are anticipated points scored at BIGs based on the following assumptions:

- Placement based on current FLO rankings (included in parenthesis)
- No activity points awarded.

125 Spencer (1) 19 Steen (DNP) 0
133 Brody (6) 8 RBY (1) 19
141 Real (1) 19 Bartlett (2) 15
149 Max (4) 11 SVN (5) 9
157 Cobe (6) 8 Haines (3) 12.5
165 PK (3) 12.5 Facundo (4) 11
174 Nelson (7) 5.5 Starocci (1) 19
185 Abe (4) 11 Brooks (1) 19
197 Warner (4) 11 Dean (1) 19
HWT Cass (3) 12.5 Kerk (2) 15

Total: 117.5 138.5

Looks like 21 points have to be made up between placement and activity. There isn't a ton of room for PSU to outplace their assumed finish. Brody, Max, Cobe, Nelson, Abe and Warner have a chance to significantly outplace their assumed finish. I am saying we have a chance!
 
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If I'm not mistaken, you don't get advancement points for byes anymore, so the 1 and 2 seeds should all lose a point in those totals. That Iowa will only have a couple guys with byes and PSU will have at least six gives you a couple more chances for bonus in the opening round which can cut into the difference. Someone can correct me if that's not the case anymore.
 
HawkAlum2002 said:
If I'm not mistaken, you don't get advancement points for byes anymore, so the 1 and 2 seeds should all lose a point in those totals. That Iowa will only have a couple guys with byes and PSU will have at least six gives you a couple more chances for bonus in the opening round which can cut into the difference. Someone can correct me if that's not the case anymore.
Click to expand...
If the wrestler with a bye wins in the next round, they get the advancement point for the bye round.
 
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AaronJDixon said:
Below are anticipated points scored at BIGs based on the following assumptions:

- Placement based on current FLO rankings (included in parenthesis)
- No activity points awarded.

125 Spencer (1) 19 Steen (DNP) 0
133 Brody (6) 8 RBY (1) 19
141 Real (1) 19 Bartlett (2) 15
149 Max (4) 11 SVN (5) 9
157 Cobe (6) 8 Haines (3) 12.5
165 PK (3) 12.5 Facundo (4) 11
174 Nelson (7) 5.5 Starocci (1) 19
185 Abe (4) 11 Brooks (1) 19
197 Warner (4) 11 Dean (1) 19
HWT Cass (3) 12.5 Kerk (2) 15

Total: 117.5 138.5

Looks like 21 points have to be made up between placement and activity. There isn't a ton of room for PSU to outplace their assumed finish. Brody, Max, Cobe, Nelson, Abe and Warner have a chance to significantly outplace their assumed finish. I am saying we have a chance!
Click to expand...
Unfortunately those places seem pretty realistic for most of our guys as a top end. The floor is a few spots lower for 2-3 of our guys unless they wrestle lights out.

Bonus points are going to come from Lee, Woods (if he wrestles more than 1 period), PK and Tony. PSU likely matches or outscores us on bonus points.

It's likely a 2 team race but I see us finishing 20-25 points behind psu.
 
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dtripp26 said:
Unfortunately those places seem pretty realistic for most of our guys as a top end. The floor is a few spots lower for 2-3 of our guys unless they wrestle lights out.

Bonus points are going to come from Lee, Woods (if he wrestles more than 1 period), PK and Tony. PSU likely matches or outscores us on bonus points.

It's likely a 2 team race but I see us finishing 20-25 points behind psu.
Click to expand...
Yeah well ya know what, we're gonna try something different this year.

We're gonna have all Penn State's opponents actually try to not get bonuses this time around as opposed to just laying on their backs for them...............which is exactly what we're gonna have them do when they face an Iowa wrestler to complete the role reversal. :D
 
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You are correct that if the #1 seed with a bye wins the next round they earn the advancement point, but what they miss out on is the potential bonus points for wrestling a lower ranked opponent. I was frustrated the COVID year because we had so many first round byes and Nebraska came out of that first round with a big lead due to bonus points scored and held the lead through the second round after we earned advancement. I believe it's a flaw in the scoring. This year, if we scored 8 falls in the first round, yes I know it's unlikely, but if we did it would score 16 bonus points on top of the advancement points. 2 bonus points for a fall.
 
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I can totally see Brody and possibly Cobe winning a qtrs matchup as 6 seed vs 3 seed (assuming seeds hold true through the bracket) which would be monster jumps to give us shots at winnable matches in Semis. Saturday night will be massive for the all black singlets and the best part is we are picked to lose those matches. I'm excited about Cobe like everyone else, but I have to say my brother and I are very high on Teske right now. He is finally able to practice and compete at the next level and I cant wait for him to have hawk fans singing his name in the stand!!! Go-Hawks!!
 
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AaronJDixon said:
Below are anticipated points scored at BIGs based on the following assumptions:

- Placement based on current FLO rankings (included in parenthesis)
- No activity points awarded.

125 Spencer (1) 19 Steen (DNP) 0
133 Brody (6) 8 RBY (1) 19
141 Real (1) 19 Bartlett (2) 15
149 Max (4) 11 SVN (5) 9
157 Cobe (6) 8 Haines (3) 12.5
165 PK (3) 12.5 Facundo (4) 11
174 Nelson (7) 5.5 Starocci (1) 19
185 Abe (4) 11 Brooks (1) 19
197 Warner (4) 11 Dean (1) 19
HWT Cass (3) 12.5 Kerk (2) 15

Total: 117.5 138.5

Looks like 21 points have to be made up between placement and activity. There isn't a ton of room for PSU to outplace their assumed finish. Brody, Max, Cobe, Nelson, Abe and Warner have a chance to significantly outplace their assumed finish. I am saying we have a chance!
Click to expand...
I assume that "activity" points is bonus points? Maybe that's an east coast thing, like "states." ;)
 
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AaronJDixon said:
Below are anticipated points scored at BIGs based on the following assumptions:

- Placement based on current FLO rankings (included in parenthesis)
- No activity points awarded.

125 Spencer (1) 19 Steen (DNP) 0
133 Brody (6) 8 RBY (1) 19
141 Real (1) 19 Bartlett (2) 15
149 Max (4) 11 SVN (5) 9
157 Cobe (6) 8 Haines (3) 12.5
165 PK (3) 12.5 Facundo (4) 11
174 Nelson (7) 5.5 Starocci (1) 19
185 Abe (4) 11 Brooks (1) 19
197 Warner (4) 11 Dean (1) 19
HWT Cass (3) 12.5 Kerk (2) 15

Total: 117.5 138.5

Looks like 21 points have to be made up between placement and activity. There isn't a ton of room for PSU to outplace their assumed finish. Brody, Max, Cobe, Nelson, Abe and Warner have a chance to significantly outplace their assumed finish. I am saying we have a chance!
Click to expand...
I think this is pretty accurate assessment and can see you guys closing the gap at all those places you mentioned. Haines could grab a spot or two as could Facundo but I see your guys with the ability to move bigger in both of those weights. Good post!
 
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AFHawk86 said:
There is no glass ;)
Click to expand...
Zen mastah AF…

beard GIF
 
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Tcalumet said:
Most of the time when PSu is ranked #1 I think the same but this year I think they have more threat from the field at nationals that could give us a shot. Their horses are beatable.
Click to expand...
RBY
Star
Brooks
Dean
Kerk

Which of them are you picking to not be wrestling Saturday night? I know most will say Dean but I'll take him against the field in Tulsa. They have 4 losses on the year between the 5 of them.

Add in top 6 at 141 and 157. I make no predictions at 165 because the backside could be chaos, deepest weight in the country.

We'll need 8 top 5, with minimum 2 champs, to have any chance. Anybody see that?
 
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Tcalumet said:
Most of the time when PSu is ranked #1 I think the same but this year I think they have more threat from the field at nationals that could give us a shot. Their horses are beatable.
Click to expand...
I try to be as objective as possible (usually a bit of a black and gold lean creeps in) but Star has shown he can dig deep and win the close ones (his wins over Kemerer and Lewis were pretty epic). Brooks and RBY have shown the same. Brooks took a close loss and has looked pretty dominant since. It’s been quite awhile since RBY took an L. Fix hasn’t shown that he’s improved to the point that he can overcome what RBY brings. 197 is a meat grinder and it seems anyone in the top 10 can get hot and make the finals. Dean might get beat at some point, but he’s going to score points. Kirk can certainly win it all, but even if he gets beaten in the semis, I don’t think he places any lower than 3rd.

That’s 3 likely champs, with two others likely with high AA placing. I’m assuming Facundo, Van Ness, Bartlett and Haines are all going to score some points as well, with at least a couple of them getting on the podium. Can any of the above have a bad day and get upset? Of course, but realistically PSU has a really good chance at 7-8 AAs with 3 champs. I don’t think Iowa will match that.
 
dtripp26 said:
RBY
Star
Brooks
Dean
Kerk

Which of them are you picking to not be wrestling Saturday night? I know most will say Dean but I'll take him against the field in Tulsa. They have 4 losses on the year between the 5 of them.

Add in top 6 at 141 and 157. I make no predictions at 165 because the backside could be chaos, deepest weight in the country.

We'll need 8 top 5, with minimum 2 champs, to have any chance. Anybody see that?
Click to expand...
Could be any of them not wrestling Friday night depending on seeds.

At 133
Vito definitely has a shot and Latona has made a jump.

I think star loses this year in the finals.

Dean doesn’t make it back - too many guys that can beat him this year.
I’m picking Dean and Kirk not to make it to the finals. And brooks not to win(Coleman, hidlay, and the uni kid await). Also chalk me up for mehki winning 174.
 
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AaronJDixon said:
Not sure why I said that. I have never used the words "activity points" before. I think I was using Trackwrestling as my key and I think that is what they say...
Click to expand...
It’s a new concept to award extra points to guys who don’t stall. 😉

You may want to check your placement points, though. For example, under no model can someone get 19 points if he places 1st. He either gets:
• 16 placement points
• 16 placement points plus 4 advancement points (total of 20 points)
• 16 placement + 4 advancement + up to 10 bonus points (total of 21-30 points)

The only ways to get to 19 are:
• Place 1st without any bonus and lose a team point for post-match antics
• Place 2nd with 3 falls and a major decision

EDIT: Nevermind, I had Natty’s in my head for some reason. Stalling joke still applies.
 
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so cal hawkfan said:
I try to be as objective as possible (usually a bit of a black and gold lean creeps in) but Star has shown he can dig deep and win the close ones (his wins over Kemerer and Lewis were pretty epic). Brooks and RBY have shown the same. Brooks took a close loss and has looked pretty dominant since. It’s been quite awhile since RBY took an L. Fix hasn’t shown that he’s improved to the point that he can overcome what RBY brings. 197 is a meat grinder and it seems anyone in the top 10 can get hot and make the finals. Dean might get beat at some point, but he’s going to score points. Kirk can certainly win it all, but even if he gets beaten in the semis, I don’t think he places any lower than 3rd.

That’s 3 likely champs, with two others likely with high AA placing. I’m assuming Facundo, Van Ness, Bartlett and Haines are all going to score some points as well, with at least a couple of them getting on the podium. Can any of the above have a bad day and get upset? Of course, but realistically PSU has a really good chance at 7-8 AAs with 3 champs. I don’t think Iowa will match that.
Click to expand...
Correct - 7-8 aa’s with 3 champs is almost insurmountable. Star, brooks, and dean aren’t exactly nolf, Taylor, nickel level dominant guys. The sooner the field realizes it the better. These guys are great but beatable.
 
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Tcalumet said:
Could be any of them not wrestling Friday night depending on seeds.

At 133
Vito definitely has a shot and Latona has made a jump.

I think star loses this year in the finals.

Dean doesn’t make it back - too many guys that can beat him this year.
I’m picking Dean and Kirk not to make it to the finals. And brooks not to win(Coleman, hidlay, and the uni kid await). Also chalk me up for mehki winning 174.
Click to expand...
 
slushhead said:
It’s a new concept to award extra points to guys who don’t stall. 😉

You may want to check your placement points, though. For example, under no model can someone get 19 points if he places 1st. He either gets:
• 16 placement points
• 16 placement points plus 4 advancement points (total of 20 points)
• 16 placement + 4 advancement + up to 10 bonus points (total of 21-30 points)

The only ways to get to 19 are:
• Place 1st without any bonus and lose a team point for post-match antics
• Place 2nd with 3 falls and a major decision
Click to expand...

He was posting B10 potential points, not Nationals. You can only advance three times in B10s before the final, so that's 19.
 
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Tcalumet said:
Correct - 7-8 aa’s with 3 champs is almost insurmountable. Star, brooks, and dean aren’t exactly nolf, Taylor, nickel level dominant guys. The sooner the field realizes it the better. These guys are great but beatable.
Click to expand...
Carl has only had 8 AA once and 7 twice. He’s a finals or bust kind of coach. It has certainly worked.
Statistically PSU has been beatable at Big Tens. They have won 6 times in Carl’s 13 years. Mostly because he pulls his guys out of the Big Tens, so injured guys are ready for Nationals. I am not so sure he gives a damn about Big Tens.
 
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Tcalumet said:
Correct - 7-8 aa’s with 3 champs is almost insurmountable. Star, brooks, and dean aren’t exactly nolf, Taylor, nickel level dominant guys. The sooner the field realizes it the better. These guys are great but beatable.
Click to expand...
Brooks is like 53-3, Starocci something like 53-2, and Dean is 18-2 this year with around a 13 match winning streak with a 22-1 record last year.
They’re beatable but it’s not happening very often.
 
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Inthecircle said:
Carl has only had 8 AA once and 7 twice. He’s a finals or bust kind of coach. It has certainly worked.
Statistically PSU has been beatable at Big Tens. They have won 6 times in Carl’s 13 years. Mostly because he pulls his guys out of the Big Tens, so injured guys are ready for Nationals. I am not so sure he gives a damn about Big Tens.
Click to expand...

I guarantee that he gives a damn about Big Ten tourney and duals. He just gives two damns about the NCAA tourney.
 
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dtripp26 said:
RBY
Star
Brooks
Dean
Kerk

Which of them are you picking to not be wrestling Saturday night? I know most will say Dean but I'll take him against the field in Tulsa. They have 4 losses on the year between the 5 of them.

Add in top 6 at 141 and 157. I make no predictions at 165 because the backside could be chaos, deepest weight in the country.

We'll need 8 top 5, with minimum 2 champs, to have any chance. Anybody see that?
Click to expand...
Not saying they all won’t be wrestling for Big titles but Dean will have to by Warner and Kerk will have to beat Cass. So all I have to say is don’t count your chickens just yet
 
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