Bracket release discussion

[dtripp26]

Our draws suck and part of it is not being especially good or having taken some bad losses affecting seeds.

Spencer is Spencer but seems like some stiffer competition on his side. Cronin isn't beating Glory, Mckee or Courtney might be able to.

Teske doesn't have a great record and really hasn't beaten anyone. Possibly beating Henson for a half point might be his contribution. We shouldn't be starting guys seeded below 20 at any weight at any time.

Woods should make the semis and likely Hardy again.

As if Milner isn't bad enough a win there earns Max Yianni.

Cobe has a punchers chance to do something. Weak weight class helps

PK needs to take out amine again and hope Hall can beat Hamiti. Hall good too but Hamiti a really bad matchup.

If Brands gets by Faison I don't see him beating Smith.

Not much confidence in Abe, Colman probably sticks him.

Warner just going to have to take it 1 match at a time. At least with him I know that A. He has the talent to beat anyone in the bracket and B. He has done it before.

Tony going to need to use his head and get some fire in his ass but he can make the semis and see how it goes. Kerk gifted a cake walk to the finals.

133 - Teske is Teske. Not every portal guy is going to be Lugo, ADS or Woods. Sometimes you're gonna get Teske. No I don't think we should have a starter seeded in the 20s but the guy who would have had the job may not have made the field. I hope he can pull an upset against a guy I've never been super impressed with in Phillipi but more than likely he'll be going against Henson just to stay alive.

A brief commentary on our recruiting...remember when Henson was a HUGE recruit for us??? Our staff needs to do a better job of being active recruiters or evaluating guys.

149 - Hate Murin's draw. Stylistically Millner is about as bad as it gets for Max outside of the top 2 guys. And he's not a guy who you can see firing off 4 straight on the backside to AA. Max is really going to have to just let it fly and see what happens.

157 - Cobe is another guy who has a terrible style matchup if he makes it to Thursday night. Robb is so strong and solid in positions that he took away Cobe's big move potential. This is another match where we're going to have to have a perfect draw on the back side to string together some wins.

165 - I think PK ended up right where most though he would, with the 1/4 matchup most predicted. But that Thursday night matchup is just UGLY. We all know what Amine will do and if he's allowed to do it, he can break your heart. Oh and there are potential landmines all over the backside of this bracket. I think PK has the talent to beat Hamiti, I hope he gets the chance for round 3.

174-197 Anything better than 2-2 BBQ here will be shocking. Brands is a guy nobody wants to face but and had a decent Big10 but the same style that won him a couple of nice matches also lost him a couple. If he can squeak past RD1 I see him losing to Smith and having to grind through a long road on the back side.

Abe, I got nothing much to say here. It seems he's as likely to get pinned right now as he is to win. How in the wide, wide world of sports is Max Dean a 9 seed and Abe is a 12? Obvious reasons but it just seems crazy when you think about that overall. Another Thursday night loss and backside horror.

Warner, will it be 2-2 BBC or make a run to the semis? I wouldn't be shocked to see him beat Elam and Trumble, or even Truax for that matter. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him lose Thursday night and be eliminated Friday.

HWT - Tony will have his hands full with Schultz and Parris if he gets to the semis. Frankly the seeding at this weight sucks and it's going to continue to happen if the NCAA puts that much weight on conference championships. The top 3 guys once again are in the Big10 so only 1 of them is going to win. The other two get shafted for guys who have not wrestled the same competition. If either Hend or Schultz wrestled in the Big10 they would each likely have 4-5 losses and NO conf championship. But yet here we are and it's flat out BS.

With our draws I'm looking at 2 finalists and only 5 AA and that seems like a serious stretch at this point. It could very well be 4. We could struggle to meet last year's rather disappointing 74 points.

 

[UndercoverHawk]

As much as Murins seed sucks, IF he beats Millner, he gets Blockhus in the Rd12. I’ll take that all day.

 

[Inthecircle]

This.

Pretty sure it was the headgear 😂

 

[thom67]

I haven’t been impressed with Philllippi in the past. It could have been worse.

Philippi is very beatable. He is hard to score on, but most of his matches are close because he does not score points.

 

[Iowabandwagon]

Who didn’t like Warner’s draw? I love it. He has beard, bastardo and dean on the other side. Assad was given a gift. Everyone else’s is terrible or kind of what you’d expect. I hate penn state but brooks as the 3 is insulting. And Dean will have to really earn it this year along with everyone else minus kerk. He and Assad got early Christmas gifts. If we finish second it will be because a couple of our guys gutted out some wins they weren’t “supposed” to win. Bold prediction, I think Nelson ends up on the board. Lee, real first. AA from pk, Nelson, Warner, Murin (reaching) and cass. 7 AA’s and two firsts…Where does that put us? 2nd probably. World is ending, we have 4 AA’s one champ. God I hope that doesn’t happen.

 

[Exo]

Who didn’t like Warner’s draw? I love it. He has beard, bastardo and dean on the other side. Assad was given a gift. Everyone else’s is terrible or kind of what you’d expect. I hate penn state but brooks as the 3 is insulting. And Dean will have to really earn it this year along with everyone else minus kerk. He and Assad got early Christmas gifts. If we finish second it will be because a couple of our guys gutted out some wins they weren’t “supposed” to win. Bold prediction, I think Nelson ends up on the board. Lee, real first. AA from pk, Nelson, Warner, Murin (reaching) and cass. 7 AA’s and two firsts…Where does that put us? 2nd probably. World is ending, we have 4 AA’s one champ. God I hope that doesn’t happen.

How is Brooks 3 insulting? He has the worst loss of the top three seeds? Keckeisen avenged his only loss to Hidlay. This shouldn't be a surprise.

 

[Inthecircle]

Ramirez is 4th but Peyton Hall is 14?!?! Pinned Ramirez and 3 of his 4 losses are to Carr and O’toole. Hell I think Facundo is ranked ahead of him lol. Joke

They might have penalized him for forfeiting out of the big 12 after his semifinal loss?

 

[Iowabandwagon]

How is Brooks 3 insulting? He has the worst loss of the top three seeds? Keckeisen avenged his only loss to Hidlay. This shouldn't be a surprise.

Because he’s the 2 time defending champ at the weight with only one loss like the rest? I’m not saying it’s the worst seed I’ve ever witnessed but that’s pretty bad. I could understand if his loss came to one of the other top 2.

 

[82bordeaux]

The Bull treatment?

No, the Bill treatment.

 

[Gobblin]

Warner, will it be 2-2 BBC or make a run to the semis?

Good God I hope it’s a run to the semis!

 

[IRONBIRD]

They way I see it is(lets take this one step at a time) 1) YES, go out and wrestle the guy in front of you and win. We get that, but. This is the next big thing that happens every year. Seeding for NCAAs. Every year there are many things that make you scratch your head and wonder?

Not every seed is going to go the way we hoped, and because we all have no other wrestling to watch, this is what we discuss. Even if we had 10 # 1 seeds, we would still find something to complain about, such as, why is this guy in the top 1/2 of the bracket?

In the end it is fun to look at, see all the different scenarios that could play out, hear what other fans think etc...

2) that being said, I think the HAWKS overall looked as good or better then they have all year. They also appear to be about as healthy as a team as I have seen in years. All very good signs in my opinion and I am guess that most of the other wrestlers are thinking. "SH*T , I have a IOWA guy!!!" because they know it is going to be a war!

As pointed out many times, while some have some work to do, no one is in a spot where they can't make some noise and get the job done. Lets see who is ready to take what is theirs!

 

[js8793]

Nelson has an amazing potential backside draw. After losing to Smith in r2, he'd likely have O'Reilly/Ruth/Conigliaro in the r12.

Warner's draw is brutal. If he loses to Elam r2 as projected, he'll have one of Nino/Allred/Dean in the r12. Likely see Jaxon Smith/Trumble in the match before too.

 

[lookleft goright]

I think @Scruddy has a good point. Guys duck at times during duals, but can’t do that in tournament formats. Going to Southern Scuffle or other tournaments would get matches against some of those schools.

On the other hand, Iowa doesn’t have many guys who have a lot of matches under their belts. We’re well past the days when guys went into NCAA tournament with 40+ matches on the year. Hell…Spencer will only have 100 career wins when he captures his 4th title. This means less data points to use to compare out of conference seeding issues.

This is a good point. Go to some tournaments other than the Big 10 or soldier salute. Cliff Keen is a good one and there are plenty of others that would suffice early in the season.

 

[SPOONER]

This is a good point. Go to some tournaments other than the Big 10 or soldier salute. Cliff Keen is a good one and there are plenty of others that would suffice early in the season.

Skipping the Big 10s would be a bold move, Cotton.

 

[MSU158]

I only really have issues with 2.

#1 Hendrickson over Cass, let alone Kerkvliet. Beyond terrible. Rewards a cupcake schedule and basically ignores the POUNDING he took against Parris. All you need to do is watch that match to see he isn't on the same tier as Kerk and Cass. The fact that it forces Cass into a possible quarterfinal with Schultz makes it beyond bad.

#2 Murin's spot. He actually wrestled a VERY solid and full season. His losses are all to top guys and he avenged his loss to Yahya. I HATE that they basically ignored the injury loss at B1G's, which resulted in the most recent win going to Max as well as higher conference placement. There is zero question in my mind he should have been seeded over Yahya and ending up with Millner because of it is TERRIBLE.

Other than that, I am really not surprised by any.

Lee -no comment necessary.

Teske-Everyone complaining about starting a "24" seed doesn't realize WHY he was that seed. He didn't wrestle poorly to "earn" that seed. His season was shortened due to injury and being under that 15 match threshold dropped him considerably. His 4 losses are to RBY(2x), Fix and Cannon. Let's not act like he lost to "anyone with a pulse." If he wrestled 5 or so more times, he would have been somewhere between 10 and 15.

Woods-Happy to see common sense prevailed here at least. Still, he ended up with Hardy on his half and I like that match up less than I would have liked Mathews.

Murin-see above.

Siebrecht-Sadly, I think the injury dropped him down a bit. But, at the start of the year, I don't think many on here were expecting a top 15 seed from this weight.

Kennedy-This weight is so deep landmines were coming early no matter where he landed. I don't love seeing Amine that early, but that is actually Griffith's fault. Losing to Olguin TWICE this year messed that part of the bracket up...

Brands-He has wrestled about as close to his apex all year as anyone could rightly expect. He avenged his Ruth loss in convincing fashion and 11th is about as high as anyone should expect.

Assad-His seed is about where he would have been to start the year. But, his body of work up to B1G's had him top 6 or so until getting pinned. Still, I think he is in a decent spot to do well if he stays out of ties he isn't strong enough to defend.

Warner-Ugh. I am about as far from an insider as it gets. But, between the rumblings I have read and heard and my own eyes. I think injuries are holding him back. Still, he is in EVERY match and can throw another Finalist showing together with the right mindset.

Cass-Sorry, this one still really bothers me. It probably is the only one that I have significant issues with, but it irks me still. The funny thing is they put Cass and Kerk over Schultz even though he beats both by the "formula", but they reward Hendrickson, whom most watching wrestling would know to put behind Schultz as well...

 

[UndercoverHawk]

The thing that also needs to be considered for Murin is that Yahya got a concussion. He may not be medically cleared to wrestle. In that case Murin gets moved up to the 7.

 

[bourbon n blues]

I only really have issues with 2.

#1 Hendrickson over Cass, let alone Kerkvliet. Beyond terrible. Rewards a cupcake schedule and basically ignores the POUNDING he took against Parris. All you need to do is watch that match to see he isn't on the same tier as Kerk and Cass. The fact that it forces Cass into a possible quarterfinal with Schultz makes it beyond bad.

#2 Murin's spot. He actually wrestled a VERY solid and full season. His losses are all to top guys and he avenged his loss to Yahya. I HATE that they basically ignored the injury loss at B1G's, which resulted in the most recent win going to Max as well as higher conference placement. There is zero question in my mind he should have been seeded over Yahya and ending up with Millner because of it is TERRIBLE.

Other than that, I am really not surprised by any.

Lee -no comment necessary.

Teske-Everyone complaining about starting a "24" seed doesn't realize WHY he was that seed. He didn't wrestle poorly to "earn" that seed. His season was shortened due to injury and being under that 15 match threshold dropped him considerably. His 4 losses are to RBY(2x), Fix and Cannon. Let's not act like he lost to "anyone with a pulse." If he wrestled 5 or so more times, he would have been somewhere between 10 and 15.

Woods-Happy to see common sense prevailed here at least. Still, he ended up with Hardy on his half and I like that match up less than I would have liked Mathews.

Murin-see above.

Siebrecht-Sadly, I think the injury dropped him down a bit. But, at the start of the year, I don't think many on here were expecting a top 15 seed from this weight.

Kennedy-This weight is so deep landmines were coming early no matter where he landed. I don't love seeing Amine that early, but that is actually Griffith's fault. Losing to Olguin TWICE this year messed that part of the bracket up...

Brands-He has wrestled about as close to his apex all year as anyone could rightly expect. He avenged his Ruth loss in convincing fashion and 11th is about as high as anyone should expect.

Assad-His seed is about where he would have been to start the year. But, his body of work up to B1G's had him top 6 or so until getting pinned. Still, I think he is in a decent spot to do well if he stays out of ties he isn't strong enough to defend.

Warner-Ugh. I am about as far from an insider as it gets. But, between the rumblings I have read and heard and my own eyes. I think injuries are holding him back. Still, he is in EVERY match and can throw another Finalist showing together with the right mindset.

Cass-Sorry, this one still really bothers me. It probably is the only one that I have significant issues with, but it irks me still. The funny thing is they put Cass and Kerk over Schultz even though he beats both by the "formula", but they reward Hendrickson, whom most watching wrestling would know to put behind Schultz as well...

Interesting and good take, I did not know much of that. I will admit I focus on PSU mostly and don't quite grasp seedings in the NCAA , good post.

 

[LaxHawk174]

As much as Murins seed sucks, IF he beats Millner, he gets Blockhus in the Rd12. I’ll take that all day.

Even if he loses to Millner, he'd have Parco/Mauller R12.. which I don't think are bad matchups for Max either. Tough matches for sure, but Millner/Yianni/Sasso/Johnson have all proved to be very tough matchups for him - and at least he wouldn't have any of them in the blood round.

 

[blcoach80]

The thing that also needs to be considered for Murin is that Yahya got a concussion. He may not be medically cleared to wrestle. In that case Murin gets moved up to the 7.

This would be great for Max, terrible for Thomas.

 

[bnicolls]

The thing that also needs to be considered for Murin is that Yahya got a concussion. He may not be medically cleared to wrestle. In that case Murin gets moved up to the 7.

Murin's seed bothers me most followed by Cass. How the AF guy got the 2 seed is shameful.


Watch out for Nathan Taylor. He's my cousin's grandson. Came to college TOTALLY under coached and trained. Has had a good RS Frosh season, while getting schooled in some matches. Next year he'll be a force, but I would not be surprised if he beats Schultz in his 2nd match with him

 

[AFHawk86]

As a visual person, this is a great presentation:

 

[Kale_yeah]

NCAA hates guys named Max.

And yet max has made the finals twice, he will put it all on the line in his last hurrah.

 

[MVPFAN]

I only really have issues with 2.

#1 Hendrickson over Cass, let alone Kerkvliet. Beyond terrible. Rewards a cupcake schedule and basically ignores the POUNDING he took against Parris. All you need to do is watch that match to see he isn't on the same tier as Kerk and Cass. The fact that it forces Cass into a possible quarterfinal with Schultz makes it beyond bad.

#2 Murin's spot. He actually wrestled a VERY solid and full season. His losses are all to top guys and he avenged his loss to Yahya. I HATE that they basically ignored the injury loss at B1G's, which resulted in the most recent win going to Max as well as higher conference placement. There is zero question in my mind he should have been seeded over Yahya and ending up with Millner because of it is TERRIBLE.

Other than that, I am really not surprised by any.

Lee -no comment necessary.

Teske-Everyone complaining about starting a "24" seed doesn't realize WHY he was that seed. He didn't wrestle poorly to "earn" that seed. His season was shortened due to injury and being under that 15 match threshold dropped him considerably. His 4 losses are to RBY(2x), Fix and Cannon. Let's not act like he lost to "anyone with a pulse." If he wrestled 5 or so more times, he would have been somewhere between 10 and 15.

Woods-Happy to see common sense prevailed here at least. Still, he ended up with Hardy on his half and I like that match up less than I would have liked Mathews.

Murin-see above.

Siebrecht-Sadly, I think the injury dropped him down a bit. But, at the start of the year, I don't think many on here were expecting a top 15 seed from this weight.

Kennedy-This weight is so deep landmines were coming early no matter where he landed. I don't love seeing Amine that early, but that is actually Griffith's fault. Losing to Olguin TWICE this year messed that part of the bracket up...

Brands-He has wrestled about as close to his apex all year as anyone could rightly expect. He avenged his Ruth loss in convincing fashion and 11th is about as high as anyone should expect.

Assad-His seed is about where he would have been to start the year. But, his body of work up to B1G's had him top 6 or so until getting pinned. Still, I think he is in a decent spot to do well if he stays out of ties he isn't strong enough to defend.

Warner-Ugh. I am about as far from an insider as it gets. But, between the rumblings I have read and heard and my own eyes. I think injuries are holding him back. Still, he is in EVERY match and can throw another Finalist showing together with the right mindset.

Cass-Sorry, this one still really bothers me. It probably is the only one that I have significant issues with, but it irks me still. The funny thing is they put Cass and Kerk over Schultz even though he beats both by the "formula", but they reward Hendrickson, whom most watching wrestling would know to put behind Schultz as well...

A higher conference placing and the head to head at conference should have had Max over Yaya. It shouldn't matter he had to default, it's counted as a loss. Not cool they did that.

 

[Gobblin]

Even if he loses to Millner, he'd have Parco/Mauller R12.. which I don't think are bad matchups for Max either. Tough matches for sure, but Millner/Yianni/Sasso/Johnson have all proved to be very tough matchups for him - and at least he wouldn't have any of them in the blood round.

I actually think those are terrible match ups for him…. Mauller more so than Parco. Mauller is a scrambling machine with a good gas tank. I don’t wanna watch that match.

 

[MitchLL]

Warner is all mental. More than any other wrestler in recent memory. Would it shock anyone if he didn’t AA in his final tourney? Also wouldn’t shock me if he made the finals. Let’s hope for the latter.

If Hawk fans keep their expectations low for Warner, there will be less disappointment.
And has happened multiple times over the years, once a senior, in his last go round, falls to the consis, I won't be surprised to see him lose two in a row and get bounced early.

Hope to have to eat crow on this.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Yep. Warner may not make it out of round 1. Then he would get Elam.

If Warner wants to be anywhere near the podium he's going to have to bring his A game immediately and continuously.

 

[NothingMeaningful]

They might have penalized him for forfeiting out of the big 12 after his semifinal loss?

Ramirez only has three losses, including losses to Hamiti and Carr. He also has two wins over Monday (who also beat Hamiti) and a win over Olguin (who beat Griffith twice). He has a lot of quality wins, and he's the conference champion (which also counts).

 

[UndercoverHawk]

If Hawk fans keep their expectations low for Warner, there will be less disappointment.
And has happened multiple times over the years, once a senior, in his last go round, falls to the consis, I won't be surprised to see him lose two in a row and get bounced early.

Hope to have to eat crow on this.

Say what you want about his mentality and mental toughness within a match, but I think he absolutely wants to be on the stand no matter the number of the step.

 

[MitchLL]

As others have predicted, it's going to take an extreme effort by the Hawks to even grab runner up trophy.

 

[MSU158]

As others have predicted, it's going to take an extreme effort by the Hawks to even grab runner up trophy.

See, I truly disagree there. Who do you have that really can move ahead of them? Mizz is MAYBE the only team I would worry about and they have maybe 1 year in the last 10 where they came close to meeting their seeds at NCAA's. ASU is so banged up, they fell way behind. Nebraska had their best possible run at B1G's and still lost by 30 to Iowa.

Iowa's draws aren't perfect, but you are still getting 40+ out of Lee and Woods combined. After that you WILL at least get 3 to 4 more AA's. Even if Iowa only ends up around 80, which I still think they get closer to 100, I don't see another team projecting 80.

Who do you see scoring over 80?

 

[MitchLL]

Say what you want about his mentality and mental toughness within a match, but I think he absolutely wants to be on the stand no matter the number of the step.

In all my years of Nattys, I've seen what I call the "senior mentality" too many times. Once your dream is dashed in your final shot...

I'll take shit for this, but 2014 in OKC with DSJ...

 

[LaxHawk174]

I have faith in Warner for one last run. He's Mr. Consistent at NCAA's. He always kicks his grittiness up an extra level. He knows this is his last chance. Honestly his side of the bracket is about the best he could hope for, Dean, Allred, Bastida, Beard, Braunagel, Laird, and Nino all on the top half. Beat Elam R2 and he can make the finals again. Hoping like hell Warner and Murin go out on a good note. The thought of 4 R12 finishes for Max is heartbreaking.

 

[MitchLL]

See, I truly disagree there. Who do you have that really can move ahead of them? Mizz is MAYBE the only team I would worry about and they have maybe 1 year in the last 10 where they came close to meeting their seeds at NCAA's. ASU is so banged up, they fell way behind. Nebraska had their best possible run at B1G's and still lost by 30 to Iowa.

Iowa's draws aren't perfect, but you are still getting 40+ out of Lee and Woods combined. After that you WILL at least get 3 to 4 more AA's. Even if Iowa only ends up around 80, which I still think they get closer to 100, I don't see another team projecting 80.

Who do you see scoring over 80?

Maybe I'm overly negative, but given some of the scenarios, it's conceivable Kennedy, Murin, and Warner are fighting for their lives in the R12.

I would add tOSU to your other threats to potentially finish higher than Iowa. Likely...??? Possible... absolutely.
And I think the calls to replace Telford will grow if 174 and up don't perform well.

 

[LIV4GOD]

If Hawk fans keep their expectations low for Warner, there will be less disappointment.
And has happened multiple times over the years, once a senior, in his last go round, falls to the consis, I won't be surprised to see him lose two in a row and get bounced early.

Hope to have to eat crow on this.

Yeah, I fell for the "Young always come through at nationals" mantra last year, though it was obvious he was having a bad year. And Warner has a bad knee this year. I don't think Warner AAs this year. I hope I am completely wrong.

 

[NothingMeaningful]

See, I truly disagree there. Who do you have that really can move ahead of them? Mizz is MAYBE the only team I would worry about and they have maybe 1 year in the last 10 where they came close to meeting their seeds at NCAA's. ASU is so banged up, they fell way behind. Nebraska had their best possible run at B1G's and still lost by 30 to Iowa.

Iowa's draws aren't perfect, but you are still getting 40+ out of Lee and Woods combined. After that you WILL at least get 3 to 4 more AA's. Even if Iowa only ends up around 80, which I still think they get closer to 100, I don't see another team projecting 80.

Who do you see scoring over 80?

Not saying it will happen, but Cornell has higher seeds than Iowa in five weight classes.

 

[js8793]

Maybe I'm overly negative, but given some of the scenarios, it's conceivable Kennedy, Murin, and Warner are fighting for their lives in the R12.

I would add tOSU to your other threats to potentially finish higher than Iowa. Likely...??? Possible... absolutely.

Murin and Warner aren't favored to place imo. Depending on his result with Amine and the result of Griffith/Olguin at the 8/9, PK could end up with Griffith in the r12

 

[LIV4GOD]

Beat Elam R2 and he can make the finals again. Hoping like hell Warner and Murin go out on a good note. The thought of 4 R12 finishes for Max is heartbreaking.

Didn't Elam take him down three times at the All Star match? That will be a toughie.

 

[Tcalumet]

This.

You would think they would have learned from last year

 

[cookercha]

Who will be the polarizing figure next year, once Warner is gone? Predicting his results and looking at people’s reactions has always been fun and interesting.

 

[LaxHawk174]

Didn't Elam take him down three times at the All Star match? That will be a toughie.

Yeah, but ultimately Warner tied it to go to SV, where he lost 8-6. Not crazy to think that result gets reversed. None of Warners matches are going to be easy thats for sure.