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Bracket release discussion

Kerk might not break a sweat on the way to the finals. Too much weight given to guys for winning conference. Guys with sparse resumes for competition can just cruise all year and get a high seed re Hendrickson.
Who was going to make Kerk sweat on the way to the finals anyway? Schultz? As much as I would like the situation to change, let's be honest in acknowledging that Cass sure as heck has not been making Kerk sweat this season..
 
See, I truly disagree there. Who do you have that really can move ahead of them? Mizz is MAYBE the only team I would worry about and they have maybe 1 year in the last 10 where they came close to meeting their seeds at NCAA's. ASU is so banged up, they fell way behind. Nebraska had their best possible run at B1G's and still lost by 30 to Iowa.

Iowa's draws aren't perfect, but you are still getting 40+ out of Lee and Woods combined. After that you WILL at least get 3 to 4 more AA's. Even if Iowa only ends up around 80, which I still think they get closer to 100, I don't see another team projecting 80.

Who do you see scoring over 80?
This. 100% this. Why is everyone so freaking negative in this thread. Yeah Iowa got a few rough draws, but news flash, it’s the flipping finals in wrestling. It’s not supposed to be easy.

A good majority of posters are assuming Iowas going to do poorly. How the hell can you enjoy this if you’ve already accepted defeat. Is it a defense mechanism? Well damnit, I’m ready to be hurt again.

I see a lot of opportunity for PSU to underperform.
133 - likely champion.
141- limited offensively and I think has a weak schedule. He will be tested come thurs night fri morning
149- another that appears to be limited offensively. Could easily go 1-2
157- Freshman that was given a gift at big tens. He’s solid but beatable.
165- he’s about as offensive as a southern Baptist. Not worried
174- wrestles a lot of close matches with top competition. Sooner or later…
184 - great wrestler, rough draw. Has to get past Hidlay and Keck. That’s not easy.
197- Dean is off this year. And his bracket is full of people that have beaten him before.
285 - solid draw here, but Paris beat him three times. Twice in regulation, then once in ot after that atrocious stall call.
 
Maybe I'm overly negative, but given some of the scenarios, it's conceivable Kennedy, Murin, and Warner are fighting for their lives in the R12.

I would add tOSU to your other threats to potentially finish higher than Iowa. Likely...??? Possible... absolutely.
And I think the calls to replace Telford will grow if 174 and up don't perform well.

Not saying it will happen, but Cornell has higher seeds than Iowa in five weight classes.
Just going by seed, here are the scoring expectations(beat every lower seed and lose to every higher seed during bracket progression) WITHOUT bonus:

Iowa 20+.5+20+5.5+1.5+9+2+2+1.5+12.5=74.5
Cornell 1.5+13.5+6.5+20+0+12.5+12.5+0+2.5+0=69
Nebraksa 13.5+0+12.5+0+13.5+0+16+1.5+5.5+0=62.5
NCState .5+10+10+1+5.5+0+.5+16+9+6.5=59
MIZZ 1.5+0+5.5+9+1+16+6.5+.5+13.5+2.5=56
VTech 0+9+1.5+12.5+6.5+.5+13.5+6.5+.5+.5=51
tOSU 0+1.5+1+16+0+2+9+9+0+1.5=40
ASU 2.5+12.5+0+13.5+0+0+0+0+0+10=38.5
OkState 0+16+1.5+.5+2+0+10+2+1.5+1=34.5
Mich 1.5+2+.5+.5+2+2+0+5.5+0+20=34


I just don't see another team finishing ahead of Iowa. But, it sure is PSU by miles ahead of everyone else:

PSU 0+20+9+1.5+16+1.5+20+13.5+2+13.5=97
 
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Just going by seed, here are the scoring expectations(beat every lower seed and lose to every higher seed during bracket progression) WITHOUT bonus:

Iowa 20+.5+20+5.5+1.5+9+2+2+1.5+12.5=74.5
Cornell 1.5+13.5+6.5+20+0+12.5+12.5+0+2.5+0=69
Nebraksa 13.5+0+12.5+0+13.5+0+16+1.5+5.5+0=62.5
NCState .5+10+10+1+5.5+0+.5+16+9+6.5=59
MIZZ 1.5+0+5.5+9+1+16+6.5+.5+13.5+2.5=56
tOSU 0+1.5+1+16+0+2+9+9+0+1.5=40
ASU 2.5+12.5+0+13.5+0+0+0+0+0+10=38.5


I just don't see another team finishing ahead of Iowa. But, it sure is PSU by miles ahead of everyone else:

PSU 0+20+9+1.5+16+1.5+20+13.5+2+13.5=97
Thank you for that effort.
 
Just going by seed, here are the scoring expectations(beat every lower seed and lose to every higher seed during bracket progression) WITHOUT bonus:

Iowa 20+.5+20+5.5+1.5+9+2+2+1.5+12.5=74.5
Cornell 1.5+13.5+6.5+20+0+12.5+12.5+0+2.5+0=69
Nebraksa 13.5+0+12.5+0+13.5+0+16+1.5+5.5+0=62.5
NCState .5+10+10+1+5.5+0+.5+16+9+6.5=59
MIZZ 1.5+0+5.5+9+1+16+6.5+.5+13.5+2.5=56
VTech 0+9+1.5+12.5+6.5+.5+13.5+6.5+.5+.5=51
tOSU 0+1.5+1+16+0+2+9+9+0+1.5=40
ASU 2.5+12.5+0+13.5+0+0+0+0+0+10=38.5
OkState 0+16+1.5+.5+2+0+10+2+1.5+1=34.5
Mich 1.5+2+.5+.5+2+2+0+5.5+0+20=34


I just don't see another team finishing ahead of Iowa. But, it sure is PSU by miles ahead of everyone else:

PSU 0+20+9+1.5+16+1.5+20+13.5+2+13.5=97
This is all in the bracket I posted in the other thread
 
Ramirez only has three losses, including losses to Hamiti and Carr. He also has two wins over Monday (who also beat Hamiti) and a win over Olguin (who beat Griffith twice). He has a lot of quality wins, and he's the conference champion (which also counts).
To be clear, My response was about why Peyton Hall may have been seeded 14. It was not about Ramirez being the 4 seed. I am aware of Ramirez and how he earned his record. He earned his seed.
 
See, I truly disagree there. Who do you have that really can move ahead of them? Mizz is MAYBE the only team I would worry about and they have maybe 1 year in the last 10 where they came close to meeting their seeds at NCAA's. ASU is so banged up, they fell way behind. Nebraska had their best possible run at B1G's and still lost by 30 to Iowa.

Iowa's draws aren't perfect, but you are still getting 40+ out of Lee and Woods combined. After that you WILL at least get 3 to 4 more AA's. Even if Iowa only ends up around 80, which I still think they get closer to 100, I don't see another team projecting 80.

Who do you see scoring over 80?
Yeah, Iowa is clearly the second best team in the country, and the gap between them and the rest of the field is as big as the gap up to Penn St. I would personally be absolutely shocked if Iowa finished anywhere but second.
 
Hard to have a full opinion without working out possible backside paths, but the hawks got some rough draws. But are they really rough draws or are they hawks just not that good? Probably a mix. Not a lot of top 4 talent on this team, so not surprising to see brutal paths to the semis.

I'd set the over/under at 2.5 for semifinalists. Spencer and Real should make it. Cassioppi is a toss up with Schultz most likely. Nobody else has much of a shot.

Murin got hammered. Hard to pick a worse match up than Millner r2 and no path to the semis.

Brutal for PK to get Amine again in r2 to get to Hamiti. Meanwhile Facundo ended up in the dream quarter with Monday/Ramirez.

Nelson could maybe make the quarters. Not ideal drawing the guy that just took Mekhi to tiebreakers r1. They should start that match in OT.

Assad got the best draw he could ask for to make the semis. Come on Abe!

Warner brutal. Gonna be in dog fights from the opening whistle. At least Dean drew the death quarter with Allred and Nino.
NCAA just making sure they can do whatever they need to in order to keep Carl happy.
 
Sat with some PSU guys all wknd at Chrisler. Totally in agreement a miracle isn’t needed. Our bonus potential is even with them. We have let downs (but usually we are still right around our seed) PSU hasn’t….yet.
 
Lee 1
Teske 25
Woods 1, Alirez 2 Matthews 3, Hardy 4 Jack 5 Bartlett 6
Murin 8
Siebrecht 14
Kennedy 6
Brands 11
Assad 12
Warner 14
Cassioppi 4

Schultz got the 5 so Cass would have to beat him to get to the semis against Parris
Tough road for anybody ranked 8 or below. Not sure why Cass is 4. Lost to the 1 or 2 guy in all his matches
 
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by seed 5-qts, 3-semis, 2-finals do you think that is good enough for this bunch on here. at some point somebody will be calling for Tom, M*, Telford,and Et Al to be fired.
 
In other sports you are rewarded greatly for competing in the toughest conference.

In wrestling it appears you're going to be punished for competing against the best wrestlers every week. I would have to think this will not be good for the ducking problem that the sport has.
Could t agree more, see SEC in football and baseball. Teams that are .500 in SEC play make baseball regionals, while Big Ten gets top 1, maybe 2 in. Those making the call realize the talent variance between conferences
 
Sat with some PSU guys all wknd at Chrisler. Totally in agreement a miracle isn’t needed. Our bonus potential is even with them. We have let downs (but usually we are still right around our seed) PSU hasn’t….yet.
Fans, or wrestling/staff families?
 
I believe he was referring to his #2 ranking not their NCAA seed.
May be true, but how do you seed him ahead of the 2nd ranked guy he lost to twice? (Rhetorical question; but the OP expressed surprise at the 4 seed given Cass).
 
May be true, but how do you seed him ahead of the 2nd ranked guy he lost to twice? (Rhetorical question; but the OP expressed surprise at the 4 seed given Cass).
Yes, because Hendrickson proved last year he doesn't belong in the top 5 and he hasn't wrestled anyone this year to prove otherwise. The B1G guys have been ranked 1, 2, 3 all year and have only lost to each other,and have beat other Top 10 guys all year, including the guy that was ranked #4 coming into the post-season.
 
The ducking isn’t going away anytime soon. You beat a highly tanked guy once and you have 25 seeding criteria points in the bag. If a guy medical forfeits it doesn’t add RPI or a quality win to the wrestler who wins. On top of that the committee can decide to turn a blind eye or penalize the wrestler, as it relates to M For. They turned a blind eye to Max. They penalized Amine in the seeding for not wrestling Kharchla, who he stuck in the dual, he also beat Hamiti
 
Maybe I'm overly negative, but given some of the scenarios, it's conceivable Kennedy, Murin, and Warner are fighting for their lives in the R12.

I would add tOSU to your other threats to potentially finish higher than Iowa. Likely...??? Possible... absolutely.
And I think the calls to replace Telford will grow if 174 and up don't perform well.
I agree with everything you said...except the part about PK. He's going to bring it just like he did at B10s. He's going to be a tough out and I don't think anyone not named Carr, O'Toole and Hamiti are going to beat him.
 
Not saying it will happen, but Cornell has higher seeds than Iowa in five weight classes.
Yep, and the AF HWT is seeded 2nd. Cornell's seedings nor Hendrickson's 2 seed is going to keep them from signicantly underscoring their seeds. I have faith in Yanni, some in Vito, and a bit in Foca scoring to their seeds, but only Yanni matching Real in points (nobody's matching Spencer). I see the rest of them getting toppled just like some of ours. If Cornell outscores Iowa I'll donate $100 to the HWC. Someone please keep me honest.
 
Yep, and the AF HWT is seeded 2nd. Cornell's seedings nor Hendrickson's 2 seed is going to keep them from signicantly underscoring their seeds. I have faith in Yanni, some in Vito, and a bit in Foca scoring to their seeds, but only Yanni matching Real in points (nobody's matching Spencer). I see the rest of them getting toppled just like some of ours. If Cornell outscores Iowa I'll donate $100 to the HWC. Someone please keep me honest.
If Cornell outscores Iowa I will donate $100 to the HWC!
 
They way I see it is(lets take this one step at a time) 1) YES, go out and wrestle the guy in front of you and win. We get that, but. This is the next big thing that happens every year. Seeding for NCAAs. Every year there are many things that make you scratch your head and wonder?

Not ever seed is going to go the way we hoped, and because we all have no other wrestling to watch, this is what we discuss. Even if we had 10 # 1 seeds, we would still find something to complain about, such as, why is this guy in the top 1/2 of the bracket?

In the end it is fun to look at, see all the different scenarios that could play out, hear what other fans think etc...

2) that being said, I think the HAWKS overall looked as good or better then they have all year. They also appear to be about as healthy as a team as I have seen in years. All very good signs in my opinion and I am guess that most of the other wrestlers are thinking. "SH*T , I have a IOWA guy!!!" because they know it is going to be a war!

As pointed out many times, while some have some work to do, no one is in a spot where they can't make some noise and get the job done. Lets see who is ready to take what is theirs!
Instead of blocking people,I'm going to only read Ironbird. Love the optimism.
 
I concur...that will be a fun bracket to watch especially with the seeds that some of those fellas got. There will be hammers in the wrestlebacks...
165 is going to be great. We've all been waiting for it all year. This is what I have for initial picks:

1. Carr
2. Hamiti
3. O'Toole
4. Kennedy
5. Griffith
6. Monday
7. Facundo
8. Kharchla

Blood Round:
Facundo d. Caliendo
Griffith d. Amine
Kharchla d. Ramirez
Kennedy d. Wilson

Realistically, all of the top 6 are good enough to be champions in a normal draw.
 
165 is going to be great. We've all been waiting for it all year. This is what I have for initial picks:

1. Carr
2. Hamiti
3. O'Toole
4. Kennedy
5. Griffith
6. Monday
7. Facundo
8. Kharchla

Blood Round:
Facundo d. Caliendo
Griffith d. Amine
Kharchla d. Ramirez
Kennedy d. Wilson

Realistically, all of the top 6 are good enough to be champions in a normal draw.
I think I’d be shocked if Facundo is an AA this year. He’s very limited offensively,and that’s not ideal in a weight class with this many studs. If I had to wager I’d say he’s slightly overrated due to the singlet he wears.

No shade to the young man. I just don’t think this is his year.
 
165 is going to be great. We've all been waiting for it all year. This is what I have for initial picks:

1. Carr
2. Hamiti
3. O'Toole
4. Kennedy
5. Griffith
6. Monday
7. Facundo
8. Kharchla

Blood Round:
Facundo d. Caliendo
Griffith d. Amine
Kharchla d. Ramirez
Kennedy d. Wilson

Realistically, all of the top 6 are good enough to be champions in a normal draw.
I was very impressed with Caliendo. Kid is good.
 
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I think I’d be shocked if Facundo is an AA this year. He’s very limited offensively,and that’s not ideal in a weight class with this many studs. If I had to wager I’d say he’s slightly overrated due to the singlet he wears.

No shade to the young man. I just don’t think this is his year.
There are a lot of 50-50 matches in 165. I have him beating Ramirez, who I'm not particularly impressed with, before losing to Monday in the Qs. He then gets Caliendo in the blood round for an AA spot, which, all things told in this killer weight class, is as favorable of a draw as one can get.

If he loses to Ramirez, then he'd fall into a consi match with the loser of Hall vs Braunagel, which I have projected as Hall, since he MFF'd out of the Big 12 tourney and lost to Braunagel at Midlands. That's one Facundo could lose, but if he wins, the path includes Olenyuk then Kharchla in the BR, who Facundo split matches with so far this year.

The bottom line is that, for as tough as the draw could be at a weight this stacked, Facundo's is as favorable as it gets (certainly not easy, but as easy as possible). I don't think I'd include him as one of the top 8 in the draw, but the draw sheet matters at this point. He avoids Carr, O'Toole, Kennedy, and Griffith no matter what.
 
There are a lot of 50-50 matches in 165. I have him beating Ramirez, who I'm not particularly impressed with, before losing to Monday in the Qs. He then gets Caliendo in the blood round for an AA spot, which, all things told in this killer weight class, is as favorable of a draw as one can get.

If he loses to Ramirez, then he'd fall into a consi match with the loser of Hall vs Braunagel, which I have projected as Hall, since he MFF'd out of the Big 12 tourney and lost to Braunagel at Midlands. That's one Facundo could lose, but if he wins, the path includes Olenyuk then Kharchla in the BR, who Facundo split matches with so far this year.

The bottom line is that, for as tough as the draw could be at a weight this stacked, Facundo's is as favorable as it gets (certainly not easy, but as easy as possible). I don't think I'd include him as one of the top 8 in the draw, but the draw sheet matters at this point. He avoids Carr, O'Toole, Kennedy, and Griffith no matter what.

Caliendo is a beast and not getting the attention he deserves. Watch his B12 match against Wyatt Sheets, bullied him 17-7. He is not the favorable draw.
 
There are a lot of 50-50 matches in 165. I have him beating Ramirez, who I'm not particularly impressed with, before losing to Monday in the Qs. He then gets Caliendo in the blood round for an AA spot, which, all things told in this killer weight class, is as favorable of a draw as one can get.

If he loses to Ramirez, then he'd fall into a consi match with the loser of Hall vs Braunagel, which I have projected as Hall, since he MFF'd out of the Big 12 tourney and lost to Braunagel at Midlands. That's one Facundo could lose, but if he wins, the path includes Olenyuk then Kharchla in the BR, who Facundo split matches with so far this year.

The bottom line is that, for as tough as the draw could be at a weight this stacked, Facundo's is as favorable as it gets (certainly not easy, but as easy as possible). I don't think I'd include him as one of the top 8 in the draw, but the draw sheet matters at this point. He avoids Carr, O'Toole, Kennedy, and Griffith no matter what.

Only 3 losses on the year. 2 to O’Toole and he split with Shane Griffith.
 
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