I’ll try to keep track of the bubble teams according to D1 and BA’s projections.
*Last 4 in BA
^Last 4 in D1
*Iowa 25-14 (10-5) 76 RPI
*Florida 26-18 (8-13) 20 RPI
*Wake Forest 32-13 (10-11) 25 RPI
*^San Diego 27-16 (13-8) 49 RPI
^Pittsburgh 24-18 (10-10) 59 RPI
^Louisiana Tech 32-15 (14-7) 37 RPI
^Louisiana 25-17 (14-7) 46 RPI
Tulane 28-17-1 (9-6) 51 RPI
Alabama 25-20 (9-12) 48 RPI
Coastal Carolina 26-15-1 (13-7-1) 54 RPI
UTSA 30-15 (14-7) 55 RPI
Illinois 22-19 (12-6) 69 RPI
North Carolina 25-17 (8-13) 34 RPI
Mid Tenn State 23-19 (12-9) 56 RPI
South Carolina 23-20 (9-12) 64 RPI
Couple thoughts:
SEC: Alabama finishes with a brutal schedule and South Carolina's RPI is way too high to be seriously considered as an SEC at large. Florida has some winnable series coming up that should help get their conference record closer to .500 and with their RPI they will be in. That gives SEC 8 teams in.
ACC: UNC swept Pitt this season. If UNC gets their conference record closer to .500, they are probably in. Their schedule finishes very tough as does Pitt's. If Pitt finds a way to in their ND or GT series, that might be enough to get them in. WF also has a tough last 3 series to end the year. Pitt's RPI is probably too high to get in for a southern team. Hopefully they all finish around .400 in conference and the ACC only gets 8 teams in as well.
There isn't much separating (0.008) the MVC, Sun Belt, Conf USA, B1G, AAC, and WCC in the RPI ranks. Whereas 0.027 separates #4 PAC12 from #5MVC and 0.0100 separates #10WCC from #11 SOCON.
MVC: Could be a 1 bid league if Dallas Baptist beats Evansville next week and wins the MVC tourney. Root for the Purple Aces to stumble.
Sun Belt: This will be a conference race to keep your eye on. They have 8 teams in the top 80 of the RPI. Right now they are a 3 bid league.
Conf USA: Right now a 2 bid league and IMO La Tech is pretty solidly in. Root against UTSA and MTSU.
AAC: Could also be a 1 bid league, especially if E Carolina wins the tourney. Root against Tulane.
WWC: Probably a 2 bid league, especially is SD wins their series against Gonzaga. Root against SD.
B1G: Iowa is going to be the highest RPI team if they get in. Tuesday's loss really hurt in that regard. They can help themselves by getting as close to 60 as possible, finishing 2nd or 3rd in the B1G, and they need to finish closer to Rutger/Maryland than Illinois/Michigan. I think Iowa grouping themselves with Rutger/Maryland is going to be the most important for Iowa and making the B1G a 3 bid league when looking at the other bubble teams and how they sit in their conferences. If Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan all finish on a run and essentially tie for 2nd place at 17-7 or 16-8 (above .650), the B1G could have as good of a case as anyone to be a 5 bid league.
TL;DR: Root for Iowa to win and other bubble teams to lose.
*Last 4 in BA
^Last 4 in D1
*Iowa 25-14 (10-5) 76 RPI
*Florida 26-18 (8-13) 20 RPI
*Wake Forest 32-13 (10-11) 25 RPI
*^San Diego 27-16 (13-8) 49 RPI
^Pittsburgh 24-18 (10-10) 59 RPI
^Louisiana Tech 32-15 (14-7) 37 RPI
^Louisiana 25-17 (14-7) 46 RPI
Tulane 28-17-1 (9-6) 51 RPI
Alabama 25-20 (9-12) 48 RPI
Coastal Carolina 26-15-1 (13-7-1) 54 RPI
UTSA 30-15 (14-7) 55 RPI
Illinois 22-19 (12-6) 69 RPI
North Carolina 25-17 (8-13) 34 RPI
Mid Tenn State 23-19 (12-9) 56 RPI
South Carolina 23-20 (9-12) 64 RPI
Couple thoughts:
SEC: Alabama finishes with a brutal schedule and South Carolina's RPI is way too high to be seriously considered as an SEC at large. Florida has some winnable series coming up that should help get their conference record closer to .500 and with their RPI they will be in. That gives SEC 8 teams in.
ACC: UNC swept Pitt this season. If UNC gets their conference record closer to .500, they are probably in. Their schedule finishes very tough as does Pitt's. If Pitt finds a way to in their ND or GT series, that might be enough to get them in. WF also has a tough last 3 series to end the year. Pitt's RPI is probably too high to get in for a southern team. Hopefully they all finish around .400 in conference and the ACC only gets 8 teams in as well.
There isn't much separating (0.008) the MVC, Sun Belt, Conf USA, B1G, AAC, and WCC in the RPI ranks. Whereas 0.027 separates #4 PAC12 from #5MVC and 0.0100 separates #10WCC from #11 SOCON.
MVC: Could be a 1 bid league if Dallas Baptist beats Evansville next week and wins the MVC tourney. Root for the Purple Aces to stumble.
Sun Belt: This will be a conference race to keep your eye on. They have 8 teams in the top 80 of the RPI. Right now they are a 3 bid league.
Conf USA: Right now a 2 bid league and IMO La Tech is pretty solidly in. Root against UTSA and MTSU.
AAC: Could also be a 1 bid league, especially if E Carolina wins the tourney. Root against Tulane.
WWC: Probably a 2 bid league, especially is SD wins their series against Gonzaga. Root against SD.
B1G: Iowa is going to be the highest RPI team if they get in. Tuesday's loss really hurt in that regard. They can help themselves by getting as close to 60 as possible, finishing 2nd or 3rd in the B1G, and they need to finish closer to Rutger/Maryland than Illinois/Michigan. I think Iowa grouping themselves with Rutger/Maryland is going to be the most important for Iowa and making the B1G a 3 bid league when looking at the other bubble teams and how they sit in their conferences. If Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan all finish on a run and essentially tie for 2nd place at 17-7 or 16-8 (above .650), the B1G could have as good of a case as anyone to be a 5 bid league.
TL;DR: Root for Iowa to win and other bubble teams to lose.