Can a team with a POY go deep in tourney with only a dominant defense and 1 reliable scorer?

[HawkRugged17]

Since you reference sample size,
Can you Tell us what constitutes small sample size vs. statistically significant sample size?

It's like pornography ... can't necessarily define it, but I know it when I see it. And I know that Pemsl playing 12.4 minutes (and missing some games) has a lot less of an effect than a player like CJF playing 28.4 minutes a game (mostly as a starter).

 

[anon_2zMXH429BhxV1Npk]

I pray that OP is correct and tomorrow we shut down OSU defensively with both Garza and RK in at the same time (because we haven no other choice). But I am very worried how we are going to defend the 3 against by far the best 3 pt shooting team we've seen in conference play. Neither Garza nor RK can guard that far out against non-bigs. RK is going to be on Kaleb Wesson, who shoots 43% from 3. I guess we'll find out really soon whether the OP's theory holds up.

 

[KcTo]

My disagreement isn't that CP and Kriener cant increase Iowas defenseive effectiveness in certain ways, especially rebounding. Definitely a much better rebounding team with two bigs. And RK is the best overall defender of the bigs.

My disagreement is with calling CJ a poor defender based on metrics when Iowa plays a zone defense.

He moves his feet and stays in front of the ballhandler most of the time, to compare him to Bohannon is ludicrous. If guys hit shots in his face in a zone D theres not much he can do about it.

The question of zone defense and a player defense rating is a good one, I don’t know the answer to how that contributes. Probably a question to research.

All this years data suggest that JoBo and CJF are comparable on defensive metrics.

and they also show ConMac, Wieskamp and JoeTO are comparable defensively.

They all play defense on the perimeter, and yet there is a distinguishing level of evidence that shows there are 2 distinct defensive player profiles. I don’t think it’s that absurd to out CJF closer to JoBo than the other tier.

that said, we all get to see it okay out vs despised tOSU tomorrow

 

[Ronman]

All this years data suggest that JoBo and CJF are comparable on defensive metrics.

As Jim Bouton once famously said, tell your statistics to shut up. If you've watched any amount of basketball, you know that CJ is a better defender than JBo.

 

[HawkRugged17]

The question of zone defense and a player defense rating is a good one, I don’t know the answer to how that contributes. Probably a question to research.

All this years data suggest that JoBo and CJF are comparable on defensive metrics.

and they also show ConMac, Wieskamp and JoeTO are comparable defensively.

They all play defense on the perimeter, and yet there is a distinguishing level of evidence that shows there are 2 distinct defensive player profiles. I don’t think it’s that absurd to out CJF closer to JoBo than the other tier.

that said, we all get to see it okay out vs despised tOSU tomorrow

People have tried to research what you mentioned ... and it can't be done at this point. Defensive rating in a zone is guesswork.

Again, defensive metrics (which cannot take zone defense into account at times) or are very subjective need to be used in context. It is absurd to say CJF is closer to JBo than the other tier. It can not be measured, so you are guessing.

And one game (vs OSU) will not bear out any results in a vacuum.

 

[RocknRollface]

I pray that OP is correct and tomorrow we shut down OSU defensively with both Garza and RK in at the same time (because we haven no other choice). But I am very worried how we are going to defend the 3 against by far the best 3 pt shooting team we've seen in conference play. Neither Garza nor RK can guard that far out against non-bigs. RK is going to be on Kaleb Wesson, who shoots 43% from 3. I guess we'll find out really soon whether the OP's theory holds up.

Iowa plays zone.

 

[anon_2zMXH429BhxV1Npk]

Iowa plays zone.

They often play a matchup zone. Wesson is going to spend a lot of time at the 3 point line and that doesn't mean one of their guards will rotate down, so both Garza and RK can't just stay in the paint. They'll either have to come out to cover him or rotate to cover a guard away from the basket, either way not ideal.

 

[KcTo]

I pray that OP is correct and tomorrow we shut down OSU defensively with both Garza and RK in at the same time (because we haven no other choice). But I am very worried how we are going to defend the 3 against by far the best 3 pt shooting team we've seen in conference play. Neither Garza nor RK can guard that far out against non-bigs. RK is going to be on Kaleb Wesson, who shoots 43% from 3. I guess we'll find out really soon whether the OP's theory holds up.

Not only will iowa perform well defensively, because we all know that defense is the most consistent metric, it travels, and it shows up every night, so yes, I think Iowa’s 2B will being the D, I think that home cooking is something that Wieskamp needs for his noted ‘bounce back’ games.

That doesn’t mean Wesson will not make some 3’s, but shooting over Kriener and his 7’3” wingspan, with Garza or Pemsl behind him in case of the dribble drive, may add just enough degree of difficulty to make him average at best.

And I don’t understand why Kriene pr gets such a bad rap on this site? He clearly helped save the game with a near game clinching blocked shot at MN, that was epic! and that was versus a non-big, dude give him some props. But he also bangs hard and backs down from know one, plus he’s an Iowa pedigreed kid. Damn, I love his attitude, the way he flashed the 3 sign ( he will again maybe tomorrow) and even Fran calls him out for being the best communication guy for the defense and with more minutes 4, that is 4 block shots including on Oturu.

I do look for excellent defense, a return to form for Wieskamp, and if Fran maximizes the minutes of the 2B, I see no reason not to bet on Iowa to beat the spread and shoot for the under.

This post Live from Big Grove Brewery, Iowa City, Iowa .

 

[RocknRollface]

They often play a matchup zone. Wesson is going to spend a lot of time at the 3 point line and that doesn't mean one of their guards will rotate down, so both Garza and RK can't just stay in the paint. They'll either have to come out to cover him or rotate to cover a guard away from the basket, either way not ideal.

If Kriener is playing the wing then yes he'll have to be out around the 3pt line.

My point was no one is guarding a specific person.

 

[anon_2zMXH429BhxV1Npk]

If Kriener is playing the wing then yes he'll have to be out around the 3pt line.

My point was no one is guarding a specific person.

Yeah I wasn't really accurate in my original post. Moreso just posturing that OSU is one of the best 3 point shooting teams we've seen all year and playing 2 or even 3 bigs against them has potential to really hurt us. I guess we'll see.

 

[RocknRollface]

Yeah I wasn't really accurate in my original post. Moreso just posturing that OSU is one of the best 3 point shooting teams we've seen all year and playing 2 or even 3 bigs against them has potential to really hurt us. I guess we'll see.

Agreed, I don't think it makes the defense better overall besides rebounding.

 

[KcTo]

Agreed, I don't think it makes the defense better overall besides rebounding.

Rebounding dominance leads to fewer 2nd Chance opportunities, fewer easy FG% opportunity, greater 2pt FGz defense, more blocked shots (7 v MN) and conversely leads to -more- Iowa 2nd Chance points and all on the Iowa end.

these all result in greater point prevention, while adding offensive efficiency via the same,

let’s see if Iowa can win this rebounding edge tonight

the next post will be live from BigGrove Brewery, Iowa City Iowa, and enjoying their 2 brand new releases, fresh brew with fresh ideas

who is with me?

 

[RocknRollface]

Rebounding dominance leads to fewer 2nd Chance opportunities, fewer easy FG% opportunity, greater 2pt FGz defense, more blocked shots (7 v MN) and conversely leads to -more- Iowa 2nd Chance points and all on the Iowa end.

these all result in greater point prevention, while adding offensive efficiency via the same,

let’s see if Iowa can win this rebounding edge tonight

the next post will be live from BigGrove Brewery, Iowa City Iowa, and enjoying their 2 brand new releases, fresh brew with fresh ideas

who is with me?

Correct it is important but if you can't stop dribble penetration rebounding doesn't matter because the other team will be getting layups and open 3s.

So theres validity to both sides.

 

[KcTo]

Correct it is important but if you can't stop dribble penetration rebounding doesn't matter because the other team will be getting layups and open 3s.

So theres validity to both sides.

So, A. This is live from BigGrove Brewery, Iowa City Iowa, one of my favorite places in one of my favorite cities, and there’s a whole bunch of old pros here early drinking fresh beer and giving fresh takes on the game.

12 dudes. 9 in Hawkeye gear, 6 wearing 2 pieces of gear lol. I look forward to getting their takes.

To your point; if you can’t stop dribble penetration your in trouble, if you can’t rebound or protect the rim, you are in more trouble. If this is your soul argument for why you need 4 guards, I’d say prob no, but I agree with some of what your saying,

do you think with 2 bigs and 3 guards Iowa is getting exposed by dribble penetration..?

comes visit big Grove Brewery for fresh beer (and more fresh takes)

 

[RocknRollface]

So, A. This is live from BigGrove Brewery, Iowa City Iowa, one of my favorite places in one of my favorite cities, and there’s a whole bunch of old pros here early drinking fresh beer and giving fresh takes on the game.

12 dudes. 9 in Hawkeye gear, 6 wearing 2 pieces of gear lol. I look forward to getting their takes.

To your point; if you can’t stop dribble penetration your in trouble, if you can’t rebound or protect the rim, you are in more trouble. If this is your soul argument for why you need 4 guards, I’d say prob no, but I agree with some of what your saying,

do you think with 2 bigs and 3 guards Iowa is getting exposed by dribble penetration..?

comes visit big Grove Brewery for fresh beer (and more fresh takes)

I think Iowas 2 big look is fairly susceptible to dribble penetration, especially if it's in place of CJ.

Generally what happens is dribble penetration results in open 3s after the rotation cuts off the basket.

If you're playing a good outside shooting team I'd prefer 4 guards. Against a poor shooting team rebounding may be more important.

 

[KcTo]

I think Iowas 2 big look is fairly susceptible to dribble penetration, especially if it's in place of CJ.

Generally what happens is dribble penetration results in open 3s after the rotation cuts off the basket.

If you're playing a good outside shooting team I'd prefer 4 guards. Against a poor shooting team rebounding may be more important.

Please let us know which match up your seeing this happen, be specific...

 

[KcTo]

I pray that OP is correct and tomorrow we shut down OSU defensively with both Garza and RK in at the same time (because we haven no other choice). But I am very worried how we are going to defend the 3 against by far the best 3 pt shooting team we've seen in conference play. Neither Garza nor RK can guard that far out against non-bigs. RK is going to be on Kaleb Wesson, who shoots 43% from 3. I guess we'll find out really soon whether the OP's theory holds up.

Consider your prayer answered...

 

[The Deplorable Sleeping Dog]

Neither Joe Dub or CJ are in any way "role players". They are versatile scorers with multiple skill sets. The whole premise is wrong.

You cannot really say that C Mac or Joe T are exactly role players. They don't score much but do a lot of other things, and in C Mac's case, a lot of things very well. Joe T is also improving, albeit erratically so.

This team has one great player, one outstanding player, and several very good basketball players. This is what a team with more than one 4* recruit looks like.

 

[anon_2zMXH429BhxV1Npk]

Consider your prayer answered...

I am willing to give credit where credit is due, so good call. If we can keep this up I think a lot of us will owe you several beers!

I'm not going to use @MSU as an example unless it works out because we all know what to expect going into East Lansing...

 

[David1979]

Consider your prayer answered...

Except they didn't play great defense. Their defensive efficiency actually dropped after last nights game.

 

[FranklinHawk]

Except they didn't play great defense. Their defensive efficiency actually dropped after last nights game.

They played great defense early, so so during most of the middle, and got complacent at the end when up 15.

 

[KcTo]

Except they didn't play great defense. Their defensive efficiency actually dropped after last nights game.

Except Iowa was up 19 with 6mn remaining and tOSU star on the Bench.....
Their star Wesson 4-10, 10pts, 6R, 5F, 4TO... is that good defense?

Hmmm, doesn’t that sound better than the MI, IL, RUT, WI game when homestanding Iowa was -behind- with 5m remaining? Which scenario is preferred.

and we all saw tOSU make 4-5 3s in last 2m to make the score much closer,

 

[David1979]

Except Iowa was up 19 with 6mn remaining and tOSU star on the Bench.....
Their star Wesson 4-10, 10pts, 6R, 5F, 4TO... is that good defense?

Hmmm, doesn’t that sound better than the MI, IL, RUT, WI game when homestanding Iowa was -behind- with 5m remaining? Which scenario is preferred.

and we all saw tOSU make 4-5 3s in last 2m to make the score much closer,

You can't just look at one person's stat line and say that means the team played good defense overall.
If you look at all of those games. OSU's offensive rating was similar to Rutgers I think it was about 1.1 pts per possession. The worst defensive game was the Michigan game but Iowa's offense was fantastic just like it was last night. They actually had better defensive games against Wisconsin and Illinois but Iowa's offense wasn't nearly as good last night.

OSU shot 54% from 2 for the game. OSU rebounded 36% of their misses. Just look at the Wisconsin game for example. They only allowed Wisconsin to score .87 pts per possession. OSU shot horrible from 3 but 3pt shooting defense is pretty random.

 

[Hawk-Fran1]

Cant wait till we get our best overall guard and all big ten freshmen performer back in the Lineup....Fredericks makes our offense special and is our best wing defender....

 

[KcTo]

Cant wait till we get our best overall guard and all big ten freshmen performer back in the Lineup....Fredericks makes our offense special and is our best wing defender....

I’m wondering about this? Youre saying CJF is better at “over all guard” play and “best wing defender”

your saying he’s better at those than Joe Wieskamp? A probably all big ten second team guy, and possible NBA early draftee? Your saying that CJF is better than Wieskamp?

He’s a better 3pt shooter this season, yes, but that’s really his only advantage over Wieskamp...

 

[KcTo]

I think this new avatar illustrates Defense at the rim vs an elite big man,

Kriener from the front, and BK ambushes him from behind,

that my friend is what a dominant defensive play looks like at the rim...