Coaching Lost that Game

[northernboarderhawk]

Can u give me a verified example (game, player, coach, time of game) when your scenario has played out? With all of the great coaching out there, I don't recall someone busting loose and taking a knee in gimmy FG territory?

The only time that I can think of anyone doing anything remotely close to this was when I believe M. Westbrook went to the ground on about the 2 yard line instead of scoring a TD late in a game so the offence could run out the clock instead of kicking it back off and giving the other team a chance to come back and tie the game. But in this instance Philly controlled the clock and already had a lead. Not the same as was what Iowa was facing.

 

[scotthawk1964]

If Iowa coaches tell the offense to not score on our final position,we win this game. Run clock out at 5 yard line and kick game winning field goal we are basically assured to win that game. Extra point conversion percentage is 97% in college football.

Old school mentality of power football, ignore statistics is a thing of the past.

I don't see why we'd give them the ball back with 2 mins left.

This is just stupid, no disrespect intended. In a perfect world, Wadley stops and takes a knee at the one yard line, but I am sure the team was more worried about just scoring then spending time telling the players to not score unless the time is run off the clock. Now, suppose Wadley did take a knee, and Ped State blocked another field goal, then this same poster is posting that it was stupid that Wadley did not score when he had the chance. Crystal ball coaching at its finest.

 

[hif in fairfax]

I have seen several players in the nfl go down before scoring. I can only name one player for sure Brian Westbrook eagles. Weak example I know, but it has been done. And I definitely don't blame Wadley for scoring.

 

[Eternal Return]

Sure they did. I agree he played a great game but people on here definitely said that. Found it odd since Barkley runs a 4.3.

Maybe two posters said that, but come on, almost every Iowa fan knew what Barkley could do. How did you possibly find the two posters (or whatever) that said Jewell would take Barkley out of the game while missing the 90 percent of Hawkeye posters who thought Penn State would not only win, but cover the spread. Hell, probably a good third of Hawkeye fans probably thought it could be a repeat of last year's game. So just ... go back to your board and enjoy your win our stay and be more respectful. If not, expect all of us here to take it personally and trash you no matter what the hell you say.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

You suggested that you needed to teach me about probability ... I was simply indicating that, in reality, the scenario should probably be reversed. Iowa's whole strategy against top-caliber teams is actually reliant on rare-event statistics ... so I found it amusing that you made your uninformed comment.

Given your strategy, PSU has in the ball park of around 1 minute (to maybe a a minute and a quarter) left in the game and that is assuming we're running the ball each time. However, given how effective they were at stopping our situational running game - we invariably would have been stuck kicking a field goal.

Thus, YOUR scenario still runs us into the risk of having another FG blocked. Furthermore, even if we make the FG ... our lead is by 1 point.

Just as they had enough time to go down the field and score the TD (just barely). The scenario would have been equally close. PSU would still have had JUST enough time to get down the field into FG territory.

There are no guarantees in the game. Just because you cook up a strategy that you believe is better ... it doesn't mean that its implementation would have been any smoother.

Given the situation of the game ... whether you play it like the Hawkeye coaches OR by your strategy ... either way, Iowa is mostly in a favorable situation to win. Ultimately the D still needs to make the stops ... either way. They didn't ... despite trying their hardest. PSU has a fine offense and they made nothing easy for our D.

For someone claiming you are some sort of math wizard you are showing zero ability to follow my logic or even follow the actually scenario of the game. The probability of missing or having an extra point blocked is 3%. The field goal would have been from extra point distance. PSU would have either had no time on the clock (we would have had last possession of the game), or they would have had like under 30 seconds with no timeouts to go the entire length of the field. I'd have to do the math on how much time they'd have left, I haven't done it yet and clearly you haven't either, but it would be around 30 seconds or less I'm pretty sure.

 

[ejb25]

What a great idea. They should pay you millions of dollars to coach the football team.

 

[JoelBittner]

Peyton Manning has done it before. And I agree, that most teams won't do that. I'm pointing out that it's a flawed coaching methodology. You should go with the higher probability strategy.

Put the game in the hands of the defense? Or a guy who had already missed a chip shot?

 

[okinburg1]

This is just stupid, no disrespect intended. In a perfect world, Wadley stops and takes a knee at the one yard line, but I am sure the team was more worried about just scoring then spending time telling the players to not score unless the time is run off the clock. Now, suppose Wadley did take a knee, and Ped State blocked another field goal, then this same poster is posting that it was stupid that Wadley did not score when he had the chance. Crystal ball coaching at its finest.

That's Penn State

 

[kceasthawk]

Nope.

Just winners.

Pretty much makes everyones point doesn't it? I wouldn't in a million years have gone on your site, and gotten in a pissing match with your fans had that ball been tipped away. You wonder why people won't let this PED state thing die. From your admin, to your coach, to many of your fans, you just can't help but be what you are. Enjoy your spoils while you can.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

According to an ESPN real time box score Iowa had a 96% chance of winning after the TD. Pair that with the age old adage of "never take points off the board" which kneeling at the three instead of scoring the TD essentially is, I'd take the points 100 out of 100 times. Also, what percentage of extra points are kicked from the hash which this field goal woulda been kicked from or did you expect Wadley to cut back against the grain and kneel in the center of the field as well?

We would have had first and goal from the 3. We could have ran it to the middle then slide to set hash marks where we want.

You're mentioning the age old adage of "never take points off the board". That's my point entirely. That's a flawed methodology and it cost us the game tonight most likely.

 

[kjb32812]

Maybe two posters said that, but come on, almost every Iowa fan knew what Barkley could do. How did you possibly find the two posters (or whatever) that said Jewell would take Barkley out of the game while missing the 90 percent of Hawkeye posters who thought Penn State would not only win, but cover the spread. Hell, probably a good third of Hawkeye fans probably thought it could be a repeat of last year's game. So just ... go back to your board and enjoy your win our stay and be more respectful. If not, expect all of us here to take it personally and trash you no matter what the hell you say.

I thought PSU would win by 20 based on matchups but that didn't happen. I like Iowa and respect them. I'm just having some fun based on what I read on here all week.

Obviously I was completely wrong on my projections.

• I said our DL and LBs were suspect. They were lights out tonight and me screaming, "scheme" would be sour grapes.
• I thought Mc would pick you apart. He didn't play very well.
• I thought Gesicki would have a big game. He didn't.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

You can kneel the ball all you want, but if the other team calls timeout the clock still stops. There is no way Iowa could've run the clock all the way down in that scenario. No chance at a first down since the ball was inside the 10. PSU would've got the ball back with a minute left just needing a field goal. That's way more likely for them to get than driving all the way down and scoring a td.

PSU only had 2 timeouts. I'd have to do the math, but I'm pretty sure we either could have eaten all of the clock or kicked the field goal with like 30 seconds left and no time outs for PSU.

 

[Eternal Return]

I have seen several players in the nfl go down before scoring. I can only name one player for sure Brian Westbrook eagles. Weak example I know, but it has been done. And I definitely don't blame Wadley for scoring.

You don't deserve this, but I must remind you that Iowa is a college football team and this was Nate Stanley's fourth start ... against the Number 5 team in the country. And you expect Iowa's offense to perform like an NFL team? In any of those NFL games, had the kicker had a FG blocked earlier in the game? Not only Stanley's fourth start, also only Recinos' first start. Nah, no way you take a knee.

 

[Yellow Snow]

Holy cow Vodca....

What you are actually saying is that Iowa coaches.... DOWN by two... Should tell Wadley to take a knee at the three with less than two minutes left to set up for a game winning field goal.

I could see that if the play started from the 8 yard line on first and goal. Key point being it was a freaking HUGE play... from a long ways out. The game wasn't tied. Iowa was down.

I would love to read your reaction and old school pontification if Wadley slid at the three yard line DOWN TWO POINTS and then the field goal got blocked.

 

[kjb32812]

Pretty much makes everyones point doesn't it? I wouldn't in a million years have gone on your site, and gotten in a pissing match with your fans had that ball been tipped away. You wonder why people won't let this PED state thing die. From your admin, to your coach, to many of your fans, you just can't help but be what you are. Enjoy your spoils while you can.

Winners?

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

You don't deserve this, but I must remind you that Iowa is a college football team and this was Nate Stanley's fourth start ... against the Number 5 team in the country. And you expect Iowa's offense to perform like an NFL team? In any of those NFL games, had the kicker had a FG blocked earlier in the game? Not only Stanley's fourth start, also only Recinos' first start. Nah, no way you take a knee.

Why are you bringing up Stanley. Stanley is completely irrelevant to the strategy I suggest. The strategy I'm suggesting literally only requires the field goal unit to make an extra point distance field goal to win the game and give PSU ball back with no timeouts and almost no time on clock at all (if any time - would have to do the math on how much time was left).

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

Holy cow Vodca....

What you are actually saying is that Iowa coaches.... DOWN by two... Should tell Wadley to take a knee at the three with less than two minutes left to set up for a game winning field goal.

I could see that if the play started from the 8 yard line on first and goal. Key point being it was a freaking HUGE play... from a long ways out. The game wasn't tied. Iowa was down.

I would love to read your reaction and old school pontification if Wadley slid at the three yard line DOWN TWO POINTS and then the field goal got blocked.

I've already said in this thread that if the field goal was blocked I'd be fine with it. It's still giving your team the higher probability of winning the game. Extra point field conversion is 97% in college footballl. Only 3% are blocked or missed. That is a better probability than giving PSU the ball back with 2 mins and 2 time outs against our tired defense.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

What a great idea. They should pay you millions of dollars to coach the football team.

Ahh the classic ad hominem "you're not an coach so you are incapable of commenting or suggesting alternative strategies".

 

[kceasthawk]

Winners?

No people with no moral compass, who care about nothing but winning. I'd have you ask Joe Pa about that but he's not here anymore so.......

 

[kjb32812]

No people with no moral compass, who care about nothing but winning. I'd have you ask Joe Pa about that but he's not here anymore so.......

Joe Paterno was a POS. Not sure what that has to do with you losing tonight.

 

[Yellow Snow]

I've already said in this thread that if the field goal was blocked I'd be fine with it. It's still giving your team the higher probability of winning the game. Extra point field conversion is 97% in college footballl. Only 3% are blocked or missed. That is a better probability than giving PSU the ball back with 2 mins and 2 time outs against our tired defense.

Oh... i get what you are saying. It just isn't something realistic to coach people.

 

[okinburg1]

I've already said in this thread that if the field goal was blocked I'd be fine with it. It's still giving your team the higher probability of winning the game. Extra point field conversion is 97% in college footballl. Only 3% are blocked or missed. That is a better probability than giving PSU the ball back with 2 mins and 2 time outs against our tired defense.

Honest question. When you were watching the game, in real time, did you scream for Wadley to take a knee? Hindsight is always 20-20.

Good game Hawkeyes. Your D played lights out and your O did almost enough to win. Definitely a heart-attack game for fans of both.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

Oh... i get what you are saying. It just isn't something realistic to coach people.

That's not true at all. It takes practice and time to coach it, but players can learn this strategy. Also, you make sure you remind every offensive player multiple times before that possession. Football players are always playing strategically - ie: staying in bounds or going out of bounds to control clock, sliding after a game winning turnover instead of scoring, calling offensive/defensive audibles, etc, etc. Football is a strategic game.

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

Honest question. When you were watching the game, in real time, did you scream for Wadley to take a knee? Hindsight is always 20-20.

Good game Hawkeyes. Your D played lights out and your O did almost enough to win. Definitely a heart-attack game for fans of both.

I said to my friends right away that we shouldn't have scored there. Should have went down on the goal line and milked clock. It's not even hindsight. It's foresight. It's clock/field position management. Like I said the old school mentality of score the TD no matter what is dated. It cost us the game tonight most likely.

 

[kceasthawk]

Joe Paterno was a POS. Not sure what that has to do with you losing tonight.

Your correct there sport, and your fans still want him lifted up as some kind of god with his own statue. Its also a pretty big POS deal to be on our board trying to stir up shit after a great game, so that you can pat your self on the back. You won. You were supposed to win right? You were supposed to blow Iowa out. Take your ball and go home now. Jesus, is any form of sportmanship that far beneath you?

 

[okinburg1]

I said to my friends right away that we shouldn't have scored there. Should have went down on the goal line and milked clock. It's not even hindsight. It's foresight. It's clock/field position management. Like I said the old school mentality of score the TD no matter what is dated. It cost us the game tonight most likely.

Kudos to you then, because you just might be right. Then again, if your defense, which was huge all night, had made one more play...

 

[HIWB]

I've already said in this thread that if the field goal was blocked I'd be fine with it. It's still giving your team the higher probability of winning the game. Extra point field conversion is 97% in college footballl. Only 3% are blocked or missed. That is a better probability than giving PSU the ball back with 2 mins and 2 time outs against our tired defense.

You're pulling the probability argument out of thin air. Just because 97% of PATs are made, doesn't mean you can use the same number to determine a 97% chance at an outcome. That's not how stats work. You don't know the probability of the chances of PSU winning after giving them the ball back in ANY scenario, either.

 

[Yellow Snow]

I said to my friends right away that we shouldn't have scored there. Should have went down on the goal line and milked clock. It's not even hindsight. It's foresight. It's clock/field position management. Like I said the old school mentality of score the TD no matter what is dated. It cost us the game tonight most likely.

Iowa was behind on the scoreboard. If the game was tied, you have a point.

 

[kjb32812]

Your correct there sport, and your fans still want him lifted up as some kind of god with his own statue. Its also a pretty big POS deal to be on our board trying to stir up shit after a great game, so that you can pat your self on the back. You won. You were supposed to win right? You were supposed to blow Iowa out. Take your ball and go home now. Jesus, is any form of sportmanship that far beneath you?

Don't be mad. Great game.

 

[hif in fairfax]

I said to my friends right away that we shouldn't have scored there. Should have went down on the goal line and milked clock. It's not even hindsight. It's foresight. It's clock/field position management. Like I said the old school mentality of score the TD no matter what is dated. It cost us the game tonight most likely.

Problem is I don't think anyone on the team expected Wadley to score. So when he broke it open he was just doing his job, which is to score touchdowns.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

PSU only had 2 timeouts. I'd have to do the math, but I'm pretty sure we either could have eaten all of the clock or kicked the field goal with like 30 seconds left and no time outs for PSU.

I had forgotten how much time was left on the clock. I rechecked - you're right insofar that there would probably have been around 30 to 40 seconds left on the clock.

One flaw in your comment about the FG being blocked is that the process of blocking a kick is a correlated event. The fact that PSU demonstrated the ability to block a FG and actually blocked a prior field goal kicked by Iowa ... that significantly increases the probability for the block. That's not to say that they would do so ... but successful blocking of FGs through an individual game (given context and all that) are not statistically independent events.

 

[ffjoey44]

Vodka, pretty obvious you have never actually played the game of football beyond maybe Pop Warner.
Kjb get bent, you know you wouldn't be on this forum at all had that 4th down pass gone incomplete. Back to your boards with the rest of your low life fans.

 

[doughudd]

To boot, not quite sure WTF you are talking about. Tonight's performance by Barkley on the ground was nowhere close to the greatest performance by a PSU RB. LJ Jr. had at least one game over 300 if not more. If not, several others very close.

Total all purpose yds 350+

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

I had forgotten how much time was left on the clock. I rechecked - you're right insofar that there would probably have been around 30 to 40 seconds left on the clock.

One flaw in your comment about the FG being blocked is that the process of blocking a kick is a correlated event. The fact that PSU demonstrated the ability to block a FG and actually blocked a prior field goal kicked by Iowa ... that significantly increases the probability for the block. That's not to say that they would do so ... but successful blocking of FGs through an individual game (given context and all that) are not statistically independent events.

Blocking a 35 yard field goal is A LOT more likely than blocking a 20 yard field goal.

 

[ffjoey44]

You sir, are a moron

 

[smallcenter]

If Iowa coaches tell the offense to not score on our final position,we win this game. Run clock out at 5 yard line and kick game winning field goal we are basically assured to win that game. Extra point conversion percentage is 97% in college football.

Old school mentality of power football, ignore statistics is a thing of the past.

I don't see why we'd give them the ball back with 2 mins left.

Moron...

Grab your remote and keep playing NCAA football 2006

 

[Eternal Return]

Why are you bringing up Stanley. Stanley is completely irrelevant to the strategy I suggest. The strategy I'm suggesting literally only requires the field goal unit to make an extra point distance field goal to win the game and give PSU ball back with no timeouts and almost no time on clock at all (if any time - would have to do the math on how much time was left).

Um, I also mentioned that it was only Recinos' fourth start, too, AND that he had had a FG blocked earlier in the game. According to ESPN metrics, Iowa had a 96 percent chance of winning after Wadley's TD.

 

[Ngnosis hwk scence]

Yes sir, I agree with the OP 100%, well 97%.

The tactic of going down within the 5 yard line when down by 2 points, 1 minute and 43 seconds remaining and PSU having 2 time outs would have have been coached by 97% of great coaches.

For the 97% of everyone crucifying the OP, you are wrong and he is right.

Really good to great coaches (or at least 97%): Bill Belichick, Tony Dungy and Andy Reid (to name a few) have employed this strategy, gone new school, and managed the clock, numerous times.

The Iowa defense played great and should not have been put in that position.

Almost 97% of the posters' arguments that oppose the OP are either mis-informed or fall somewhere in between being clueless or moronic. I especially like the argument that "obviously" the OP has never played football, not even Pop Warner...WTF? what does that have to do with anything?

As for the more compelling question.. is there Vodka in Heaven? I really don't care. I am just 97% hopeful there is Gin in heaven.

PS: the officiating sucked. I am 97 percent certain that Iowa would have won if the refs would have flagged Akrum and made the call according to the letter of the law. He high stepped within the 4 yard line.



.

 

[Eternal Return]

Yes sir, I agree with the OP 100%, well 97%.

The tactic of going down within the 5 yard line when down by 2 points, 1 minute and 43 seconds remaining and PSU having 2 time outs would have have been coached by 97% of great coaches.

For the 97% of everyone crucifying the OP, you are wrong and he is right.

Really good to great coaches (or at least 97%): Bill Belichick, Tony Dungy and Andy Reid (to name a few) have employed this strategy, gone new school, and managed the clock, numerous times.

The Iowa defense played great and should not have been put in that position.

Almost 97% of the posters' arguments that oppose the OP are either mis-informed or fall somewhere in between being clueless or moronic. I especially like the argument that "obviously" the OP has never played football, not even Pop Warner...WTF? what does that have to do with anything?

As for the more compelling question.. is there Vodka in Heaven? I really don't care. I am just 97% hopeful there is Gin in heaven.

PS: the officiating sucked. I am 97 percent certain that Iowa would have won if the refs would have flagged Akrum and made the call according to the letter of the law. He high stepped within the 4 yard line.



.

Good points, but I just saw the ESPN stat that showed Iowa had a 96 percent chance of winning after Wadley scored. So, we're talking about 97 percent versus 96 percent. Call me old fashioned, but I'll take four extra points on the board in exchange for the extra one percent chance of winning.

EDIT: It was actually 96.7 percent after Wadley's TD. So ...

 

[Ngnosis hwk scence]

It's OK to agree to disagree.

The 97 % vs 96.7% is razor thin but I disagree often with ESPN, their coverage, their politics and their "so-called". metrics.

In any event it was a great game, the Hawkeyes played well and fought to the very last second. and inches (See Hooker's fingers and the football on the last play)