It's OK to agree to disagree.
The 97 % vs 96.7% is razor thin but I disagree often with ESPN, their coverage, their politics and their "so-called". metrics.
In any event it was a great game, the Hawkeyes played well and fought to the very last second. and inches (See Hooker's fingers and the football on the last play)
That's fair. But I think it does point out that it's not an open and shut case either way. I remember Recinos missing most of his attempts last year and having had the one blocked earlier? I think that's why my gut pushes me toward what statistically might seem to be the somewhat lesser probability.