I'm projecting the next TV deal at the time the schools would be added.
Basically TV distributions to the Big Ten should be in the range of $60 million per team with the renewed TV deals and expanded playoff around 2025, especially since the power conferences should get benefits as they did before from controlling the major bowls like Rose/Sugar/Orange.
The bar for adding a team gets that much higher.
Reality is that Nebraska/Maryland/Rutgers benefited from the 9th game added and the conference championship and CFP all starting around the time they were added at the same time that the TV deals were renegotiated.
This time, really all that's going to be in play is the expanded playoff and new TV deals.
There are very few schools that can add $60+ million in TV value to the Big Ten, and they're all in the ACC or Pac-12.
It's basically USC + 3 to 5 teams or ACC teams like ND or UNC/UVA or FSU/Clemson (but doubtful that non-AAUs will come other than ND).
Only really major market/brand teams or those that have additional benefits worth considering (like UNC/UVA being located in major recruiting grounds/growth states) will work.